Perspectives On Patience From The Press Box - Fantasy Baseball Insider Report

Scott Engel delivers his analysis on exclusive fantasy baseball insider insights from a national MLB writer.

Welcome back to our annual Fantasy Baseball Insider series on RotoBaller.com, where we take you inside Major League Baseball clubhouses, press boxes, and front offices for exclusive insights that provide a completely unique edge on the competition. We give you an all-access pass to information and takes, along with comprehensive fantasy breakdowns.

On the condition of anonymity, former and current players, executives, coaches, scouts, and media members provide their unfiltered insights on key players and situations. Scott Engel supplies his fantasy baseball analysis regarding their commentaries. These reports contain perspectives from the most established experts in the game. The Fantasy Baseball Insider series has won the Fantasy Sports Writers Association’s award for best Fantasy Baseball Series. Scott was also a finalist for the 2021 FSWA Fantasy Baseball Writer of the Year Award, as the nomination recognized his work on the Insider Series.

In this edition, we showcase the expert viewpoints of a national baseball writer who has been covering Major League Baseball since the mid-1990s. He is also an experienced fantasy baseball player, and he participates in keeper leagues. This reporter shares his thoughts on some players to be patient on early in the season while also discussing some other guys he found interesting for the rest of the 2023 campaign. Comments from the MLB writer are featured in italics.

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Anthony Volpe, New York Yankees

“There have been some comparisons to Derek Jeter, which may have spiked up some prices in auction drafts in the New York area. Looking at his minor league stats, it’s almost 30 years later, but he is actually a more promising prospect than Jeter was in 1996. He hits for a little more power and runs a little more. I really like him and think he’s going to be a very good player. He’s in a pretty good spot to ease into big league life and he will be really good for the Yankees for a long time.”

“Everyone was not sure of Jeter at first, either. Even if he’s not great out of the box, his floor is 10/10, which is pretty good for a No. 9 hitter, but I think he can go 15/15.  But those who play in keeper and dynasty leagues should have been all over him, even if the price was inflated. I think he’s going to be the Yankees’ shortstop well into the 2030s. He should be solid overall this year and a very good player in the future.”

Anthony Volpe is 3-for-21 with 0 XBH in his first 7 games

It's a big jump to the big leagues! Last year, Adley Rutschman hit .176/.256/.257 with no HR in his first 20 games

Julio Rodriguez started on Opening Day and hit .205/.284/.260 with no HR in his first 20 games

— James Smyth (@JamesSmyth621) April 8, 2023

Engel’s Insider Angles: Volpe is off to a slow start at the plate this season, and observers are already starting to speculate how much patience the Yankees may or may not have with him. In the New York market, there is usually a low amount of fan tolerance that comes with high expectations. This scouting report on him from an experienced MLB reporter suggests that fantasy players should be patient with Volpe.

Those who don’t roster Volpe may even want to consider targeting him in a trade, as his fantasy value may never be lower this season. The Jeter comparisons are apparently more about statistics than real-life projected impact, yet Volpe should prove to be much better than what we have seen so far.

Dylan Cease, Chicago White Sox

“He had such a great year, but he also led the league in walks. It was not the most efficient season. But he is very stingy with allowing hits. I think he will regress a little bit. The year before he threw just 19 fewer innings, and his ERA+ was 112. Last year it was 180. He had a remarkably good year. The walks per nine innings were basically the same.  He’s still a really good pitcher even with minor regression. But I think the ERA will go up.”

Engel’s Insider Angles: Cease’s ERA+ last year was third in the MLB. There was still some skepticism about him from some notable fantasy experts heading into the season. So far this season, Cease has a 1.65 ERA, but the 3.17 xFIP may still point to the suggested regression from last year. The BB% of 10.1 is right in line with last season and remains an issue. Last season, Cease’s xFIP was 3.72. The overall results should be similar to last year in terms of strikeouts and WHIP, but the ERA is the one category where we can indeed see a falloff.

Corbin Carroll, Arizona Diamondbacks

“I like him a lot. He was barreling up on harder pitches as the year progressed last season. He is still kind of raw. He missed all of 2020 because of the pandemic. He missed most of 2021 with a shoulder injury. So there could be some growing pains. But he was signed to an eight-year, $111 million dollar deal so quickly. Arizona knows they have a superstar in him.”

“He’s a leadoff hitter and a stolen base threat. You tend to think maybe the younger players will run more with these new rules. I think he will hit about .280 and 20/20 is certainly within reach for him this season. He already has some experience and will bat leadoff.”

Engel’s Insider Angles: As a baserunner, Carroll has already exceeded the types of expectations suggested here, as he has been among the early league leaders in stolen bases. Only Bobby Witt Jr. has registered a higher Sprint Speed than Carroll’s 30.3. Most projection systems had Carroll finishing with 20 or so steals, and he is on pace to far outdistance that total.

Carroll's xBA of .269 also suggests some potential hitting improvements to come, as he had a .250 average heading into the third week of the fantasy baseball season. We only have a small sample size so far, yet the very early returns suggest that Carroll was a good pick at an NFBC Average Draft Position of 62.5, even if some natural cold spells are ahead for a young player.

Gunnar Henderson, Baltimore Orioles

‘I think he is the leading candidate to win A.L. Rookie of the Year. He struck out twice as often as he walked last year, but most guys are going to do that these days, anyway. But he is as close to a can’t-miss prospect as you can get. He was almost 20/20 last year in the minors. The plate judgment may slightly reduce the batting average, but 20 homers and 15 steals are certainly within reach.”

Engel’s Insider Angles: Henderson is another young player to wait on for better returns in the near future. It is too early to get overly uncomfortable with guys like Volpe and Henderson. There is a tendency to be doubtful of less experienced players when they struggle early and to start worrying that they will not meet expectations overall. But the Orioles will remain patient with Henderson and so should you. If he is boosting your team later in the season, the cold start will quickly be forgotten.

Vinnie Pasquantino, Kansas City Royals

“The dude can hit. Kansas City is probably not going to be very good again this year, but I like him a lot and you can pencil him in for 25 to 30 homers. He didn’t look overmatched in the three months he had with the big club last year. He is a middle-of-the-lineup type of guy you ultimately won’t have to worry about.”

Engel’s Insider Angles: We have not seen much statistically from Pasquantino yet, either. But there is hope for better production very soon. His .235 batting average entering this week was not indicative of realistic possible results. Pasquantino had a .315 XBA behind the actual batting average. He had a .412 slugging percentage, but the xSLG was at .469. We should soon see the better version of Pasquantino that we witnessed for 70-plus games last season.

Nick Lodolo, Cincinnati Reds

“I am always cautious with starting pitchers. I don’t spend a lot of money on them in auction leagues just because of volatility. I would have liked to have gotten Lodolo last year in a keeper draft to ride with him for a few years. I was not totally averse to drafting him this year, though. He will give you great strikeout numbers and a decent WHIP. The Reds probably won’t be very good, though, and you worry about innings limits.”

“You’re probably looking at 150 innings, tops. If you are in a race for your league championship later in the year, that is something you should be concerned about. I do like him, as he is a 6-6 lefty who has looked pretty good and talent-wise, he is top-tier. If you were able to draft him originally in a keeper league as a middle-of-the-staff guy, though, I like that a lot.”

Early MLB Starting Pitcher whiff rate leaders.

1. Jacob deGrom 41.7%
2. Jesús Luzardo 40.2%
3. Shintaro Fujinami 39.3%
4. Nick Lodolo 38.5%
5. Blake Snell 37.5%
6. Pablo López 37.2%
7. Jeffrey Springs 36.8%
8. Kris Bubic 36.3%
9. Spencer Strider 35.4%
10. Chris Sale 35.4% pic.twitter.com/4eUSdMjyy8

— Eric Cross (@EricCross04) April 11, 2023

Engel’s Insider Angles: Lodolo is off to a good start this season, with a 1.50 ERA and 21 strikeouts in 12 innings pitched. In his last start against the Phillies, he allowed only three hits and struck out 12 in seven shutout innings. Lodolo has significantly decreased the usage of his sinker and the early returns have been positive. But he is not going to get too many wins on the Reds and there should be an innings limit as confirmed here. But you also knew that when you drafted Lodolo, so he may be a trade candidate later in the season.

Riley Greene, Detroit Tigers

“He probably would have had a really good season last year if not for that fluky foot injury. He is still the Tigers’ best player and he still has a ton of upside. You were likely able to get him at a seasonal draft discount. He plays on a rebuilding team, but he feels like an anchor player for the next decent Tigers team. He is probably not going to offer too much speed, but he should hit for good power over a full season. In a keeper or dynasty league, he can be a really good building block for years to come.”

Engel’s Insider Angles: Greene had an NFBC ADP of 191.7 and I was pretty happy to land him as a final outfielder in more than one draft. In his first nine games played, Greene hit .286 with six runs scored. The advanced statistics have indicated we could see the average drop while other offensive numbers can improve, which would be more in line with many preseason projections. Greene has a .263 xBA, and the .429 SLG is low when compared to the .481 xSLG. You can expect a good return on Greene this season in the weeks ahead.

Ke'Bryan Hayes, Pittsburgh Pirates

“He is now 26, so he has gotten to the end of the developmental curve. But he is also a guy who methodically climbed up the ranks. He has not had a lot of luck with injuries while being on a bad team. I think playing in Pittsburgh drags people down. He’s a better real-life player than in fantasy. He’s a terrific defensive player at third base, which is super valuable in real life. I was interested in him this year in fantasy, though, because the price was lowered.”

“He’s had two incomplete seasons and he’s not even the best player on a bad team. But in the worst case this season, he hits .260 with 10 homers. In the best-case scenario, he hits that next level at age 26. He is not going to kill you or drain your team in any certain category. There are guys who will get more attention for steals than Hayes will, and he also has the potential to hit for more power than he has shown so far.”

Engel’s Insider Angles: This is a pivotal fantasy season for Hayes, and maybe the final one to start showing he can start delivering more respectable production. The early results have not led to any optimism. He did not have a stolen base or a home run after 10 games. A .143 BABIP hasn’t helped his outlook so far, but I was skeptical of Hayes entering the season. If we don’t see a strong stretch from Hayes in the next few weeks, I might start to truly believe he will never be more than mediocre.

Scott Engel's fantasy and betting analysis is also featured at The Game Day.

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