Fantasy Baseball Insider Report: A Pitching Coach's Early-Season Scouting Reports

April 8, 2022

Scott Engel delivers his analysis on exclusive fantasy baseball insider insights from a pitching coach.

Welcome back to our annual Fantasy Baseball Insider series on RotoBaller.com, where we take you inside Major League Baseball clubhouses, press boxes and front offices for exclusive insights that provide a completely unique edge on the competition. We give you an all-access pass to information and takes that simply won’t be found anywhere else, along with comprehensive Fantasy breakdowns.

On the condition of anonymity, former and current players, executives, coaches, scouts, and media members provide their unfiltered insights on key players and situations, and Scott Engel supplies his fantasy baseball analysis on their commentaries. These reports contain perspectives that you will not find anywhere else, from the truest experts on the game: The Fantasy Baseball Insider series won the Fantasy Sports Writers Association’s award for best Fantasy Baseball Series. Scott was also a finalist for the 2021 FSWA Fantasy Baseball Writer of the Year Award, as the nomination recognized his work on the Insider Series.

In this edition, we share some keen observations from a former Major League pitcher who is now a pitching coach. If you drafted any of the guys covered here, you should feel good about several of the selections. Many of the pitchers included can also become quality trade targets as the season progresses. The pitching coach’s comments are in italics.

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Insider Report: The Pitching Coach’s Perspectives

Robbie Ray: On whether he can repeat his success of the 2021 season - “The levels of consistency have always been what has plagued Robbie Ray. He’s fully capable of doing it again this year. The Seattle Mariners’ coaching staff will just have to be on top of him, making sure that he is continuing to do the little things that are bringing him success. It’s very easy to feel like you have it all figured out, and then once things start going awry, how do you get back on track? A guy like Pete Walker was very good at staying on top of him in Toronto.  If he can continue to be coachable, then you are going to continue to see those levels of success. He’s always had one of the best left-handed fastballs in the game, now he is backing it up with movement and location.”

Engel’s Insider Angles: Ray trimmed his BB% to 6.7, a significant drop from the 11.2 mark of his last full season in 2019. That was a sign of a pitcher who had made notable adjustments to curb his biggest issue. Ray also increased his fastball usage from 53.1% in 2020 to 59.8 last season, and the curveball usage dropped from 16.4 to 6.0. Opposing batters hit .474 against the curve in 2019. Ray altered his approach under the Toronto pitching coach, Walker, and he has found the regular success that previously eluded him. You should forget the erratic Ray of the six-plus seasons prior to 2021, and expect him to be an effective No. 2 fantasy starter again this season.

Kevin Gausman: “There’s always growing pains when you change leagues. For him, it’s a matter of his off-speed pitches working as well as they did with San Francisco. His changeup is one of the best in baseball, but if hitters start sitting on his soft stuff in fastball counts, he could run into a lot of trouble. When you’re in San Francisco in those late games, there’s not a lot of scouting going on, but he definitely warrants more full-time scouting. Players were not up watching him. There are players on the east coast that will say they never watched him pitch a game. He has such a big body, and the way that he throws it is different than most. He can have success the first time through the league, but then once they get to see him, it will be about how hitters will make adjustments.”

Engel’s Insider Angles: Gausman did play five-plus seasons in the American League East to start his career, so he is familiar with the ballparks in the division. He also had an ERA below 4.30 in three campaigns while working with the Orioles. He is coming off his best season with San Francisco, so there could be some minor regression overall this year. As this source indicates, Gausman cannot coast on the success from last season. But we also spoke to a scout who believes Gausman will not have a fully bumpy transition. You will just have to lower your expectations a bit.

Noah Syndergaard: “The stuff is undeniable. Pitching in a six-man rotation and on an innings limit will be interesting for a guy who is a hard worker in the gym and how he prepares for his outings. It was a smart move by him to go out west and have the Angels provide him with those safety nets of knowing that he has the innings limit and the six-man rotation, and that extra time off between starts. He never put it all together in New York, and it was very difficult when you had the best pitcher in baseball overshadowing everything you did. Syndergaard’s stuff is just as good as Jacob deGrom’s, he just needs to be able to command it better and use his pitches more effectively. If the Angels can help him harness that, he can have a big bounce-back year.”

Here are Noah Syndergaard’s 7 strikeouts from last night. The stuff and numbers were extremely encouraging.

He displayed a 5-pitch mix and threw them all between 13-30 percent of the time. All five pitches had a 25% CSW or better. Fastball sat 94-96 mph. pic.twitter.com/mtjpbrHlLn

— Brent Maguire (@bmags94) April 4, 2022

Engel’s Insider Angles: Syndergaard finished off an impressive spring with seven strikeouts in five innings of work. There is still a lot of upside for Syndergaard, who will turn 30 years old in August. When we last saw Syndergaard make 32 starts in 2019, he had a 4.28 ERA and 3.83 xFIP with a 25.0 K%. In less starts this season, you should see comparable numbers, possibly with a slight elevation in the K%. Syndergaard should perform well for a guy who you drafted as one of the final starters on your fantasy staff.

Michael Kopech: “He has one of those electric fastballs that people have talked about, like he is Paul Bunyan or can throw a ball through a brick wall. It will be interesting to see with the White Sox getting better and better, how he responds with more pressure games falling into his lap. I would say he gets about 14 wins with a 3.50 ERA.”

Engel’s Insider Angles: Lance Lynn is out with a knee injury, so Kopech will open the season as Chicago’s third starter, and will have to immediately deliver on the significant promise. Kopech will certainly stack up the strikeouts and will induce a lot of weak contact. He will also get ample run support. If you drafted Kopech expecting a breakout year, he has the stuff and role to deliver it. The upside is tantalizing, but this will also be his first full season as an MLB starter, so there is always the possibility of a few frustrating outings you might endure. Just be patient and the talent should ultimately shine through over a full campaign.

Aaron Nola: “It’s not about being a hard thrower with him, he still has the tremendous mix of the curveball, the changeup, and being able to surprise people with the fastball up in the zone. I think he is going to have a bounce-back season. The Phillies did a nice job of adding pieces to the lineup and he is not going to have to really focus on keeping the other team down to two runs or less. He knows that he will probably be able to go deeper into games.”

Engel’s Insider Angles: Most savvy fantasy leaguers know that Nola was very unlucky last season. He had a 4.63 ERA, but a 3.37 xFIP. The main takeaway here is that with a very strong lineup backing him up, Nola is going to attack hitters and not be concerned about more uncharacteristic results. We don’t chase wins in fantasy baseball, but 15-plus is very possible for Nola this year as he anchors your fantasy staff.

Chris Bassitt: “He is the American version of Ubaldo Jimenez. His mechanics are so funky. His tempo and ability to change rhythm really messes with hitters. He has very big front side arm movement, and his glove comes at you before his arm does in such a way that it throws off timing. It almost looks like he is facing the wrong direction when he is throwing. Yet he has really good command of the strike zone and command of three pitches. He has quietly been one of the top pitchers in the American League. He could not be in a better situation than to come in and learn the tricks of the trade from Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer. He can be an ace on any other staff.”

Chris Bassitt's whiff% this spring: 31.3 percent.

Bassitt's whiff% has increased each year since 2018:

2018: 17.3%
2019: 20.9%
2020: 23.0%
2021: 23.8%@Metsmerized #Mets #LGM pic.twitter.com/DD1aXY8Ocn

— Mathew Brownstein (@MBrownstein89) April 4, 2022

With the season on the line, Ubaldo Jimenez recorded a team high 10 Ks to clinch a spot in the NL Wild Card tiebreaker game!

Relive the moment, tonight at 7pm! #RockiesClassic pic.twitter.com/l1V3CIzxfF

— AT&T SportsNet™ | RM (@ATTSportsNetRM) May 30, 2020

Engel’s Insider Angles: Bassitt is coming off a very good season, with a career-high 25.0 K% and a 3.15 ERA. The 3.93 xFIP does point to some falloff, and we will have to wait and see how he handles the pressure of performing in New York, especially now that he has been boosted to the No. 2 starter spot until deGrom returns. Ultimately, though, he was an underrated starter in Oakland and should deliver a solid overall fantasy season. He can be a “glue guy” in the Mets rotation, holding down an important spot on the starting staff until deGrom returns, and being an ideal third starter when he is hopefully back. Bassitt is not necessarily facing high expectations, and should be a quality fourth fantasy starter in mixed leagues.

Pablo Lopez: “I like him a lot. He doesn’t have overpowering stuff, but his command and ability to mix his pitches is what really sets him apart. He doesn’t get flustered and he does not overthrow at any point and he really stays within himself. He’s been very impressive.”

Engel’s Insider Angles: A healthy Lopez could turn out to be a very good third or fourth fantasy starter in mixed leagues. He had a 27.5 K% in 20 starts last season with a 3.07 ERA and 3.32 xFIP. A rotator cuff strain halted Lopez’s 2021 season in July, but he is ready to go for the 2022 campaign. Like Bassitt, he is can be a solid fantasy starter and a key piece of your starting staff.

Nestor Cortes Jr.: ”He is the kind of guy that you root for. He does not have overpowering stuff, he is an old-school pitcher. You could see him wearing one of those wool uniforms with a Rollie Fingers type of mustache. At first, I thought he was kind of gimmicky, but he attacks hitters. He reminds me of Omar Daal, who added a Luis Tiant twist into his repertoire and made it to an All-Star game. He knows he is trying to avoid hard contact, without trying to strike out the world, and he is trying to fool hitters enough for them to not barrel it up. A fly ball that falls one foot short of the wall for an out is as good to him as a strikeout. He can get you 12 wins with an ERA in the low 4.00 area. “

Engel’s Insider Angles: Cortes actually had a 27.5 K% last season, and finished with a 2.90 ERA. He did have a 4.18 xFIP and an 85% strand rate. Cortes’ Barrel% of 7.4 would not rank among the top 90 qualified pitchers. Daal was a well-traveled type who played for several teams from 1993 to 2003. He did finish with a 16-9 record with a 3.65 ERA in 1999, but then lost 19 games in 2000. Cortes may not fall to such depths of Daal’s 2000 campaign, and you likely drafted him with one of the final picks. He is a respectable depth piece, but he has not yet convinced many onlookers that he is not an overachiever. It may be fun to watch him continue to attempt to exceed expectations, and if he does, Cortes may not hurt your fantasy team much when you use him.

Yusei Kikuchi: “This is a good move for him. You can see Toronto has a very athletic defense and will put up runs in bunches. He’s a good pitcher that can help solidify that rotation. He is replacing Robbie Ray, who had a career year, so that is a lot to ask, but I think he will be a very consistent guy for them. I can see 14 wins with an ERA ranging from 3.80 to 4.10.”

Engel’s Insider Angles: This is another job for Walker, as Kikuchi has been mediocre overall throughout three MLB seasons. But with a 3.85 xFIP and a 24.5 K% last year, there certainly is hope for Kikuchi to come through with his best season yet. He is in the right situation to perform above expectations in 2022. You may have drafted Kikuchi after you took four or so other starters, and if Walker works his magic, he will turn out to be a value play.

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