The Fantasy Injury Exam Room - Five Weeks for Aaron Judge?

Scott Engel and Inside Injuries look into recent MLB player injuries and analyze their fantasy baseball implications for the rest of the 2019 season, including Aaron Judge, Matt Olson, Jacob deGrom and more.

In our weekly feature in collaboration with Inside Injuries, we take a comprehensive look into major injuries and their Fantasy implications.

The medical team at Inside Injuries breaks down each player’s outlook from physical perspectives. RotoBaller then provides in-depth fantasy recommendations based on the impact of every injury breakdown. It’s an unrivaled combination of medical and fantasy expertise, designed to help you gain a true advantage in your roster management.

Inside Injuries predicts the impact of injuries on player performance by using data analytics, medical expertise and statistical modeling.

Jacob deGrom (SP, NYM)

It’s been a confusing week of reports on Jacob deGrom after he reported soreness in his elbow last Thursday. deGrom was sent to the injured list the following day but went on to throw on Saturday and Sunday and was not sent for an MRI. The Mets finally made the right decision and sent him for an MRI on Monday to be safe, and the scans were clean. This “barking” in his elbow was likely more than just achiness associated with strep throat, but our algorithm is showing a short two week Optimal Recovery Time. deGrom remains an Elevated Injury Risk (19%) but should be ready to be activated from the I.L. when first eligible.

Engel’s Fantasy Spin:

It is possible that deGrom could return to the Mets’ rotation as soon as Friday against Milwaukee. What seemed like a significant scare for a top fantasy starter now could only mean a short absence from your fantasy squad. deGrom has struggled more than expected so far this year, but it is a relief to hear that his disappointing performances are not health related. Still, keep an eye on his progress leading up to Friday.

Aaron Judge (OF, NYY)

Judge could be looking at a lengthy absence after suffering a left oblique strain on Saturday. While there’s no timetable to return, the Yankees have indicated that it will be longer than two weeks. Inside Injuries’ algorithm is showing a five-week Optimal Recovery Time for a grade 2 (moderate) strain. Oblique/core injuries tend to be very slow to heal and are easily aggravated. Swinging the bat places a lot of stress on that area, so it’s important to be very patient throughout his recovery.

Engel’s Fantasy Spin:

For fantasy owners of Judge, it will be so difficult to replace his type of production for more than a month without making a trade. Replacing that type of power and RBI production, plus OBP in leagues where it used, will be far from an easy task and could take acquiring more than one player to compensate. In the meantime, Clint Frazier now has a clear month-plus window in which he and his fantasy owners will not have to worry about any threats to his playing time as long as his ankle injury does not become more worrisome.

Starling Marte (OF, PIT)

An outfield collision left the Pirates without two of their starters for at least 10 days. On the same play that gave Erik Gonzalez a broken collarbone and a spot on the 60-day I.L., Marte suffered a bruised abdominal wall and quad contusion, landing him on the 10-day injured list. While there’s no timetable for his return, our algorithm has calculated a grade 1 injury and a two-week Optimal Recovery Time. Marte’s Injury Risk jumped to High (44%) but should slowly improve over the next few weeks. If treated properly, this shouldn’t turn into a lengthy absence.

Engel’s Fantasy Spin:

The speed of Marte is difficult to replace, but it’s not impossible. Maybe you can swing a deal for Mallex Smith, who is hitting under .200, yet has still stolen seven bases. Amed Rosario has only two steals and is a buy-low candidate.

Daniel Murphy (1B/2B, COL)

It’s been three-and-a-half weeks since Murphy was placed on the I.L. with an avulsion fracture of the left index finger. Inside Injuries originally gave him a four-week Optimal Recovery Time, so it’s no surprise that he is making strides in his recovery. Murphy has been taking batting practice and fielding practice and was cleared to start a rehab assignment over the weekend. He does still come with a High Injury Risk and a Poor HPF, indicating he needs more time to be a contributor in the Rockies lineup, but those conditions should significantly improve over the next few weeks.

Engel’s Fantasy Spin:

Murphy could be back in the Colorado lineup by this weekend and should help boost what has been a sagging lineup. Once he is back in form, it may become more dangerous to use opposing pitchers in Coors Field again. The Rockies are starting to get healthier, as Ryan McMahon has also returned. But Nolan Arenado is not himself yet, either. The confident DFS stacking at Coors may return soon, though.

Freddy Peralta (SP, MIL)

After a rough start last Monday, the Brewers placed Peralta on the injured list with a shoulder issue. He was diagnosed with inflammation in the joint between his right collarbone and sternum, something that should improve quickly. Inside Injuries algorithm agreed, classifying it as a grade 1 injury. The Optimal Recovery Time is just two weeks. Peralta is already making progress and tossed a light side session on Monday. His HPF remains in the Below Average category (54%), but over the next week, it should improve quickly as he approaches the two-week mark.

Engel’s Fantasy Spin:

The promise that Peralta showed last season was not on display enough early in 2019 as he endured through inconsistency before he was shelved. Some owners have already cut him, but the potential is still there and he is at least a very appealing streamer when he returns.

Jean Segura (SS, PHI)

Segura hoped to avoid the injured list when he suffered a hamstring strain last week, but it was slow to heal and the Phillies were left with no choice. From the start, we warned that a multi-week absence was likely, especially when considering his history of hamstring problems. His Injury Risk sits at 67% right now, which is incredibly High. Segura had hamstring problems in 2017 and 2018 to go along with a few other injuries, and he was already a High Injury Risk even before his latest problem. The Phillies are optimistic that Segura can return to the lineup over the weekend when first eligible,  but he won’t be 100%. It would be very risky to activate him so quickly.

Engel’s Fantasy Spin:

Segura stole one base in 16 games before he hit the IL. Recovering from a hamstring strain and not being in full form when he returns makes it unlikely he will add to that disappointing total quickly. But he was hitting .328 and scored 13 runs in a very good lineup before he was hurt, so he must be activated for those type of numbers when he returns.

Giancarlo Stanton (OF, NYY)

Stanton has been sidelined all month with a grade 1 biceps strain. He progressed to hitting off of a machine last week and could be cleared for a rehab assignment any day now. According to our algorithm, Stanton has reached his Optimal Recovery Time, and his Injury Risk has improved from High Risk to Elevated (15%). His power will be the biggest concern when he returns, but his injury analytics have already improved significantly. Expect him to perform well when he returns to the Yankees lineup.

Engel’s Fantasy Spin:

Stanton stayed mostly healthy the last two seasons, but he has already reverted to his more familiar injury-prone form this year. You know what the drill is with Stanton. Reap the rewards when he is available, as when he plays, he should be even more comfortable in his second season in New York.

Matt Olson (1B, OAK)

Olson underwent surgery late in March to remove a broken hamate bone in his right hand. This surgery isn’t very invasive and comes with a seven-week Optimal Recovery Time. Olsen has resumed swinging a bat and is targeting a return in mid-May. One thing to watch when he is cleared to return is his bat. Olson is trying out a bat with an angled handle, putting less pressure on the hand and hopefully reducing discomfort. If Olson returns in the next 2-3 weeks he should be good to go, but his power will be the last thing to return to normal. It could take another month or so for that to improve.

Engel’s Fantasy Spin:

This is certainly not a reassuring report. You drafted Olson for the power, and it may not even be back fully when he returns. Whatever alternate plans you made to replace him could have to stay in place for awhile, and you should hesitate to immediately re-insert him into your lineup when he returns.

Austin Meadows (OF, TB)

Austin Meadows won’t need to undergo surgery on his sprained thumb, but this could still be a lengthy absence. Meadows is in a cast and will be shut down for 10 days. He could return to the lineup in as soon as three weeks, but that timeline sounds a bit optimistic. Inside Injuries has classified this is a grade 2 injury, which comes with a five-week Optimal Recovery Time. This is a significant sprain and could even involve a partial tear. It’s important to be patient because an early return will leave Meadows at risk of suffering a much more serious thumb injury that could require surgery. He needs to take enough time off for it to fully heal so he can be 100% the rest of the season.

Engel’s Fantasy Spin:

Avisail Garcia should continue to see consistent playing time in right field for Tampa Bay while Meadows is out. He is off to a good start, with four homers, 10 RBI and 11 runs scored. Garcia has disappointed before but the power remains and he can be plugged into your lineup as a fifth OF while Meadows heals.

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