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San Diego Padres shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr. will miss the start of the 2022 MLB season with injury. Elliott Baas breaks down the fantasy baseball fallout and projects the Padres lineup without Tatis.
With the wild free agency and trade news keeping the stove piping hot in March, one of the less fun pieces of news that came out this week is the injury to Fernando Tatis Jr., who will be sidelined for up to three months with a fractured left wrist.
Tatis was considered to be the top overall pick by most in the fantasy community, and his injury not only shakes up the first round, but throws a big wrench into the Padres’ lineup.
This piece is going to break down how Tatis’s injury affects San Diego’s roster from a fantasy perspective, and see if there’s any value that can be extracted after such devastating news. Keep up-to-date on the latest MLB news on RotoBaller all offseason long to prepare for your fantasy baseball drafts.
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Infield
Something unique about Tatis compared to other superstars is his versatility, as he was likely going to see time at both shortstop and in the outfield during 2022. We don’t know if that’s still the case given the injury, but his loss will shake up the Padres both in the dirt and in the outfield.
For the infield, the biggest beneficiaries would be Ha-Seong Kim and Jurickson Profar, both of whom profile as fringe utility bats who could fill in at middle infield if needed. Profar hasn’t played short since 2018, but could play second base if the Padres slid Jake Cronenworth over to short.
Of the pair, neither really flashes much fantasy appeal, though the slight edge goes to Profar. Profar was in the bottom 5% of the league in average exit velocity, xSLG, and xwOBAcon in 2021. To his credit, Profar did post a 112 wRC+ in 2020 and a 107 wRC+ in 2018, indicating that he possesses the ability somewhere deep down to hit slightly above league average. When he’s at his best, Profar has been an accumulator, showing up day-in and day-out to pile up raw numbers without displaying an outstanding skill in one area. He’s a much better option in points leagues or daily leagues due to his strong contact skills and multi-positional eligibility (1B, 2B, and OF), but altogether a low appeal fantasy player.
Kim looks to be an even worse fantasy player than Profar, as the 26-year-old put up a stomach-churning .209 xBA, .309 xSLG, and .265 xwOBA last season. Not into expected stats or this Statcast mumbo jumbo? Don’t worry, his actual numbers were terrible as well, with a .202/.270/.352 triple slash and 70 wRC+. His only saving grace is 83rd percentile sprint speed at six stolen bases last season. Kim had four seasons with more than 20 steals in Korea, so if he gets a green light and can manage to get on base at a decent clip he could provide cheap steals. Kim also graded as a strong defensive shortstop, so he may get the nod over Profar on most days due to his glove. Even so, he’s nothing more than a volume play in NL-Only leagues.
One interesting option for San Diego would be the promotion of top shortstop prospect CJ Abrams, who many expect to take over short for the Padres long term as Tatis transitions to full-time outfielder. Still just 21 years old, Abrams wields game-changing speed on the basepaths and could pile up steals if given the opportunity. He has also displayed a strong hit tool and contact skills, and while the power isn’t quite there for Abrams at this point, he could be a useful source of batting average and steals if the Padres let him play. Abrams might be worth a late-round flier now that Tatis is going to miss time, and he offers magnitudes more fantasy upside than either Profar or Kim.
Outfield
The Padres were pretty famous for their logjam in the outfield over the last couple of seasons, but after offloading much of their outfield talent via trades or not resigning free agents, things are looking a lot thinner out there in PETCO.
The biggest fantasy-relevant beneficiary is Wil Myers, who should be the every day right fielder for the Padres moving forward. A 30-30 threat in his youth, Myers’s skills have diminished over the years as injuries and age have taken their toll. Still, he mashed 17 home runs and stole eight bags last season, though it took him 500 PAs to do it. Myers experienced a big dip in average exit velocity, dropping three whole MPH from 91-MPH in 2020 to 88-MPH in 2021. Sure, his batted balls may be able to travel in time, but 88 miles-per-hour is weak by today’s standards He also had steep reduction in barrel rate (14.8% in 2020, 7.5% in 2021) and hard hit rate (45.8% in 2020, 38% in 2021).
Unfortunately, this profile appears to be on a downward swing and there isn’t much to get excited about for Myers heading into his age-31 season. He was still in the 80th-percentile in sprint speed last season, so double digit steals are a possibility for him, though he was only 8 of 13 on steals last season. A 62% success rate isn’t good enough to earn more green lights, so if Myers is gunned down early in the season they may not let him run. Altogether, a tiny bump in value for Myers, but another so-so option. Myers is going around pick 279 in NFBC as of writing this, though for the cost I'd rather take Mike Yastrzemski, Max Kepler, or Mark Canha around the same pick even with the Tatis injury.
Left field is a real conundrum for the Padres, as they’ve currently got Nomar Mazara penciled in as their opening day starter. Mazara has a .594 OPS over 330 PAs between 2020-2021 and has absolutely no fantasy appeal even if he were the everyday starter. Other internal options include Jorge Alfaro, who would be interesting for the sole reason that he’s catcher-eligible, Trayce Thompson, who’s most notable trait is being the brother of NBA superstar Klay Thompson, and a bevy of non-roster invitees that likely won’t make an impact.
The real question here is, who does San Diego go after in free agency? They’ve been linked to Seiya Suzuki, who posted a monster 1.069 OPS with 38 home runs in Japan last season, but remains such an unknown at the Major League level. Most projection models peg him around .250-.260 with an ISO hovering between .190-.210. That makes him a much better option for the Padres than anyone previously mentioned, but likely a fifth-outfielder in mixed leagues if the projections hold true. San Diego would be a good landing spot for Suzuki as he’d likely be able to play almost every day, where as other teams might have the luxury of platooning him.
Of the remaining big name free agents, Carlos Correa, Trevor Story, and Kris Bryant would all be nice fits, but all would require long-term commitments the Padres are likely unwilling or unable to make. Unless they can find a taker for the Eric Hosmer contract, they simply won’t be able to afford a big splash. The most likely outcome for them is to bring back someone like Tommy Pham or Mitch Moreland, or sign a stopgap veteran such as Brad Miller, Jed Lowrie, or any of the other fringe roster guys with pop still available on the market, none of whom will have much fantasy upside out of NL-only leagues. It seems unlikely that the Padres are done making moves given the current state of their roster, but their salary situation limits the type of move they can make.
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