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Tommy Bell examines six fantasy baseball hitters in some detail to identify which one we should project and rank higher for the rest of the fantasy season in 2024.
Last week, Corbin Young wrote a tremendous article outlining three starting pitcher battles to consider while ranking players for the rest of the 2024 fantasy baseball season. So, this week, I'll be taking on the same task with some hot hitter names that should be useful for fantasy managers everywhere.
In each section, we'll present the argument for two hitters, with a closing verdict that summarizes the data. Though this won't serve as a huge deep dive into each player, it will provide a numbers-backed examination of each hitter and what to expect from them moving forward.
We have some big shoes to fill considering Corbin's work last week, so let's get to it!
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Bryce Harper vs. Teoscar Hernandez
The Argument for Harper
Harper's underlying numbers are all nearly identical to the hitter he was in 2023. If we project those numbers out over a full season, that puts the Phillies lefty just shy of 30 homers, about 100 RBI, about 115 runs, and 12-ish steals with a batting average somewhere between .282 and .290. That's a strong season.
It's nice to see that Harper's strikeout rate is not climbing in his age-31 season; he's walking just as much as before, he's racking up runs, and he's hitting the ball just as hard as ever (40% hard-hit rate). The 2010 first overall pick is actually hitting a few more fly balls this season, but he's not pulling the ball as often, leading to a very similar home-run rate as previous seasons. If Harper can pull a few more balls as the weather warms AND stay healthy, perhaps he can eclipse 30 homers this year after all.
The Argument for Hernandez
Hernandez may be the strongest case there is against Seattle's home park for hitters. The 31-year-old struggled with consistency last season, despite playing in 160 games for the Mariners. Now, he's been a revived power threat since joining the Dodgers in the offseason.
The lefty-killer raised his walk rate 3%, lowered his strikeout rate 3%, is making soft contact just 10% of the time, hitting fly balls or line drives over 55% of the time he puts balls in play, and hitting with power to all fields. Hernandez is on pace for a ridiculous 37 home runs, which would eclipse his career high by five. The numbers look as sustainable as they can get, too. In fact, the L.A. outfielder is due for some positive BABIP regression before season's end.
Verdict of Harper vs. Hernandez
Only time will tell how the loss of Mookie Betts will affect this Dodger lineup top-to-bottom, but there's no signs of Hernandez slowing down no matter where he hits in this order. The Dominican Republic native is loving his new home in Los Angeles, and he's become a more complete hitter who just lacks a bit in the batting average department.
After a slow start Bryce Harper is slashing .311/.422/.566 for a .988 OPS since April 15.
No player in the National League has a higher OPS in that time span.
Oh he’s also the best defensive first baseman in baseball.
MV3 x2?
pic.twitter.com/rCLXuKIviX— Ben Silver (@BenHSilver) June 19, 2024
Ultimately, though, the nod has to go to Bryce Harper because he should end up 25-ish points higher in batting average and score 30 more runs. But Hernandez will make this battle very close all season long if he can hit 8-10 homers more than Harper and knock in 10-15 more RBI. This is about as close as it gets, but I'll go Harper by a hair (more in points leagues) and hope that he stays healthy.
Josh Naylor vs. Anthony Santander
The Argument for Naylor
Naylor hit .308 in 121 games last season. He's hitting .229 through 67 games this season. So... WHICH IS IT?
The answer is probably neither. The Guardians slugger had a very-high .326 BABIP last year and has a just-as-super-low .214 BABIP so far this year. The good news? He's hitting the ball just as hard as before and only hitting a few more balls on the ground as opposed to line drives.
The 26-year-old lefty is striking out a bit more in 2024, but he's also walking more, too. He's on pace to break 100 runs and RBI if he keeps this current pace up, and he should be able to shatter his career-high number of 20 bombs, considering he's already at 17 this season (!!!). The HR/FB rate should come down a touch, but the average should rise and plateau somewhere around .265 if I had to guess. Naylor is the complete package, and he's got real pop in that bat. Buy him now while you still can!
The Argument for Santander
Santander is continuing his power surge that he started back in 2022, as he already has 18 bombs on the young season to go along with 40 runs and 45 RBI despite a .231 batting average. Like Naylor, that average should find its way closer to .260, as his current BABIP of .218 is bound to skyrocket.
The 29-year-old is hitting more balls in the air and pulling them more, too. While he's not hitting balls quite as hard as 2023, he's still due to find some more gaps and holes as the season goes along. A lower strikeout rate is just another reason to continuing buying Santander stock. While the numbers suggest reaching his 33-homer number from 2022 will be a stretch, there's still plenty to like about the Orioles run-producer.
Verdict of Naylor vs. Santander
Naylor checks all of the boxes, and being three years younger than Santander is icing on the cake. I expect the Guardians lefty to finish 5-10 points higher in batting average, hit 3-5 more home runs, and produce about the same in the run and RBI categories. Naylor may also swipe 10 bags while he's at it!
Nothing against Santander, but Naylor is on a slightly higher level until further notice. Oh... wait a minute. I'm getting word he just hit his 18th home run of the season while I was typing this.
Josh Naylor rockets out his 18th homer of the season. 🚀 pic.twitter.com/WtDda3qy6s
— MLB (@MLB) June 20, 2024
Bryson Stott vs. Andres Gimenez
The Argument for Stott
Stott is on pace to increase his stolen-base totals again in 2024, as he's already at 18 with over half a season to go. The strides he made in the batting average department in 2023 haven't carried over quite yet, but a .263 BABIP suggests he should find himself somewhere closer to .270 by season's end. Stott has just five homers, but the runs and RBI look nice for a guy who spent a chunk of the season at the bottom of the lineup.
The hard-hit numbers aren't wild for the 26-year-old, but he's pulling more balls in the air this year, so I expect him to find at least 15 home runs again this season if he stays healthy. Though he may not get to 20 this season, there's certainly potential for that. Stott is an electric asset on the basepaths, and he's a great fit for the Phillies lineup among their stars despite his room for growth in power and batting average.
The Argument for Gimenez
Gimenez is a bit lower in the speed department this season than last, which could have to do with the shuffling of his place in the batting order. I wouldn't steal much either if Jose Ramirez and Naylor were hitting behind me. Even still, he's striking out less this year, and his absolute floor for batting average is .250. I doubt we ever see him sniff .300 again like he did in 2022.
The 25-year-old is lacking in hard-hit rate this year, dropping over 5% from 2023. While he's still making medium line drive contact all the time and he's hitting more balls effectively on the ground, there's less upside in that approach. Still, a consistent OBP source among the most dangerous hitters in the league in Cleveland is plenty to like. There's always a chance the 15-homer, 30-steal pace picks back up in the next couple of months.
Verdict of Stott vs. Gimenez
Though Gimenez is just 25 years old, it somehow feels like his hitting approach this year is capping his upside when it comes to fantasy baseball. If he's not going to steal 30 bags or hit 15 homers, then he better hit .280, and that's still in question right now.
Meanwhile, Bryson Stott's batting average is less than ideal, but the numbers suggest that it will regress nicely. There's encouraging power upside for him with his current approach, too. The steals coming in bunches helps solidify the fact that he's simply more productive for fantasy managers right now. Stott is the answer until Gimenez makes a change or two.
Bryson Stott goes yard to tie it for the @Phillies in the 7th! pic.twitter.com/XHKgB6WcgQ
— MLB (@MLB) May 19, 2024
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