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The All-Star break is almost here and there are some players on crazy hot streaks as it approaches. A few of them are to be somewhat expected, but others have come out of nowhere to surprise many fantasy managers.
What should we do about the players who are on unexpected heaters? Should fantasy managers add them and try to take advantage of their hot streak, or is it too late to jump on board?
Let’s dive into some potential Fantasy Frauds and discuss if they will be able to continue their current level of success.
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Byron Buxton, Minnesota Twins (OF)
Injuries have put a damper on Buxton’s career. He has played more than 100 games in a season just one time, which came way back in 2017 when he appeared in 140 games. That season, he became an appealing fantasy option with his 16 home runs and 29 stolen bases. He played just 85 games last season and 92 games the season prior.
The good news for Buxton is that he has already played 68 games this year. After a slow start, he has hit 18-for-40 (.450) with five home runs and six doubles over his last 11 games entering Monday. During that stretch, he only had a 15.2% strikeout rate.
Byron Buxton has joined Aaron Judge and Jarren Duran as the only MLB center fielders with an OPS above .800. pic.twitter.com/P6DNL32aZo
— Aaron Gleeman (@AaronGleeman) July 6, 2024
It’s safe to say that Buxton isn’t going to hit over .400 for a prolonged stretch. It would also be a surprise to see him continue to make contact at such an impressive rate. He has a 27.2% strikeout rate for the season and a 29.2% strikeout rate for his career. This could be the perfect time to sell high on him and float him out in trade offers to see if another fantasy manager is willing to overpay for his services.
Rowdy Tellez, Pittsburgh Pirates (1B)
Tellez has provided an unexpected spark for the Pirates lineup lately. Over his last 23 games entering Monday, he is 25-for-73 (.342) with six home runs and four doubles. The power numbers aren’t exactly a huge surprise, given that he hit 35 home runs as recently as the 2022 season. He did drop off considerably in that department last year, though, recording a .161 ISO.
Bryan Reynolds and Rowdy Tellez accounted for:
🔘 2 Grand Slams
🔘 4 Total Home Runs
🔘 11 RBI
🔘 So Many Fireworks pic.twitter.com/wMxBv1sVSj— Pittsburgh Pirates (@Pirates) July 6, 2024
Even with the hot streak that Tellez is on right now, he only has a .136 ISO for the season. His wOBA is also underwhelming at .299. For his career, he has a .234 batting average to go along with a .315 wOBA. As fun as his hot streak is right now, he’s not someone to consider adding outside of the deepest of leagues or NL-only formats.
Francisco Alvarez, New York Mets (C)
Alvarez has shown plenty of power during his brief tenure in the majors. He only appeared in 123 games last season, but he still hit 25 home runs. A thumb injury has limited him to 39 games this season entering Monday. That injury hasn’t robbed him of his power, though, since he still has a .203 ISO. It took him a while to heat up when he first came back, but he is 21-for-54 (.389) with three home runs and seven doubles over his last 17 games entering Monday.
Power is never going to be a question with Alvarez. However, he only hit .209 with a .310 wOBA last season. He has cut his strikeout rate from 26.0% last year to 22.5% this season, which is a positive sign. He has also increased his walk rate from 8.0% to 9.4%.
The thing that really stands out right now is that Alvarez is batting .293 with a .371 wOBA. He has been significantly aided by his .360 BABIP. The power is real, but in terms of his batting average, expect a significant decline as his season moves along.
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