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The highs of sleeper hunting during draft season can quickly be brought low when our favorite later picks fizzle and sputter out of the gate instead of blowing the roof off from the word go. But should we be patient, grasshoppers? Or is it time to be proactive, revoking their sleeper status and confiscating official lanyards?
The sample is less than two months and slow starts are always a part of the game. But the chances to upgrade in fantasy can be fleeting and holding on too long to players returning average production will not only cost you the stats you could've been getting from a better replacement but also the chance to actually find someone better. Waiver wires might seem flush right now but these times they will not last. The wire will continue to get picked clean and if you hold on to an underperforming favorite too long, you'll eventually get to a point where your best options to replace them are the likes of either Chad Pinder or Jose Iglesias.
Let's look at five popular picks from the second half of drafts who have disappointed so far in 2022 and judge who still has some gas in their sleeper tank and who might need to be kicked out of bed. We'll use ADP from all NFBC drafts between February 15 and April 1, and hitter ranks are calculated using the Fangraphs auction calculator for 12 team leagues and standard roster settings (5 OF, 1 MI, 1 CI, 1 UT). Stop hitting snooze, it's time to go.
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Alex Kirilloff, MIN, 1B/OF
2021: 231 PA - 8 HR - 23 R - 34 RBI - 1 SB - .251 AVG
2022: 32 PA - 0 HR - 2 R - 0 RBI - O SB - .172 AVG
2022 ADP: 184 (103 min, 300 max), Hitter #114
2021 Hitter Rater: #291
2022 Hitter Rater: #456
Sleeper Dreams
Kirilloff graduated to the majors in April 2021 as Minnesota's top prospect, projecting a fantasy-friendly profile with a sweet left-handed swing that had a lot of pop but could also hit for average. The power showed up right away, with Kirilloff hitting four HR in a three-game stretch but injured his wrist shortly after and spent two weeks on the IL. He returned but was never quite right, hitting four HR in 187 PA before ultimately having his season ended by wrist surgery in late July.
The dream was that after surgery and a long time to recover Kirilloff would come back and show what he had the injury, flashing the kind of elite exit velocities that superstars tread in. A .214 AVG and .323 wOBA prior to hitting the IL didn't exactly jump off the page but a .321 xBA and .461 xwOBA say he was hitting them on the screws, as did a .571 SLG and .817 xSLG. But a 26.7% Brl% and 100.2 mph average EV on balls hit in the air (FB+LD) were what was truly elite and spoke to the promise of his prospect pedigree being actualized in the majors.
Cold Reality
Unfortunately, we haven't again seen that version of Kiriloff, neither in his return in 2021 or at the beginning of 2022, going on the IL again for his right wrist before being activated but demoted back to Triple-A. The injury seems to have very clearly sapped his power - in 217 PA since the original injury last May, Kirilloff has posted just a .356 SLG (.431 xSLG) and .286 wOBA (.320 xwOBA), with an 8.6% Brl% and 94.6 mph average EV Air%.
The Twins are saying that there isn't anything else they can do for it medically but Kirilloff continues to have soreness that is affecting his mechanics and performance. They've deemed the best solution is to let him work things out by getting everyday at-bats in the minors and there is currently no timetable for his return.
Verdict
Alex Kirilloff is a cut in all formats. He's worth keeping an eye on to see if he regains his raking magic in the minors but I find that unlikely until he's able to swing without pain.
Wrists can be notoriously tricky and keep in mind that the injury in May '21 wasn't the first problem that he's had with his, also having recurring issues with it in 2019. The Twins say there is nothing else they can do medically and this might be a situation where Kirilloff just has to figure out how to adjust his swing to this new normal. But considering that he still says he feels pain and discomfort when swinging, how likely is it that anything gets fixed soon? I say zero and would therefore ship him to the wire until healthy results are seen.
Spencer Torkelson, DET, 1B/3B
2021 (Double-A+Triple-A): 389 PA - 25 HR - 68 R - 63 RBI - .258 AVG
2022: 115 PA - 3 HR - 7 R - 9 RBI - 0 SB - .153 AVG
2022 ADP: 234 (91 min, 366 max), Hitter #145
2021 Hitter Rater: NA
2022 Hitter Rater: #356
Sleeper Dreams
Torkelson brought with him all the promise that any first overall pick tends to, especially after hitting a total of 30 HR in 530 PA across three levels in 2021. Once it seemed certain that he wouldn't get held back by any service-time games, hopes were high that his 70-grade power and 60-grade hit tool would quickly translate to fantasy success in a Tigers lineup that, on paper, seemed to be on the upswing.
Cold Reality
Every season, there are players so tooled up that we think they'll hit the ground running but every year most of these "can't miss" stars remind us that baseball is really, really hard. Not only is Torkelson slashing just .153/.278/.255, but the Tigers have been one of baseball's biggest disappoints in the early going, crushing the souls of a Detroit fanbase that came into 2022 looking to move on up. Instead, it's been the same old Tigers, sitting last in the AL Central and last in offense, with their 103 runs scored not only ranking 30th but coming in 13 runs behind Baltimore in 29th.
Verdict
Spencer Torkelson can be cut in 10-team leagues and below but I'm avoiding it if I can in 12-team leagues. Ideally, you have enough roster flexibility to afford to bench him but even if I have to play him, I'd rather do that than send him to the wire right now. At least, not yet. If he doesn't heat up with the weather, then it can be a conversation but given the upside (plus the likelihood of his name value getting him picked up right away), I'm holding for the time being.
Repeat after me, now and forever - The path of a prospect's path is not always linear. And it certainly isn't always right away. Torkelson has struggled but he's less than two months in, playing in cool weather and a cavernous home park, surrounded by a bunch of other Tigers who are also failing to do much with the regulation sponge ball currently coming standard in this new dead-ball era.
The numbers have been poor but Torkelson's Brl% is in the 53rd percentile, Air% EV average is in the 65th percentile, and his Air% (100+ mph) is in the 48th percentile. That isn't anything extraordinary but also isn't concerning, particularly for a rookie hitting dead balls in cooler weather.
Having him light the league on fire right away would've been nice but you, my savvy reader, know that drafting a rookie to do so is generally foolish. So, hopefully, you baked a slow start into your plans and can afford to be a little more patient. Because sponge ball or not, Torkelson has the kind of top-end power potential that could be difference-making in this year of our deadball, two thousand and twenty-two. And looking at the waiver wire on Yahoo, your options for upgrades likely won't be plentiful - think Nathaniel Lowe and Jonathan Schoop.
Bobby Dalbec, BOS, 1B/3B
2021: 453 PA - 25 HR - 50 R - 78 RBI - 2 SB - .240 AVG
2022: 101 PA - 1 HR - 11 R - 4 RBI - 0 SB - .165 AVG
2022 ADP: 217 ADP (107 min, 334 max), Hitter #133
2021 Hitter Rater: #139
2022 Hitter Rater: #393
Sleeper Dreams
Dalbec hit 25 HR in just 453 PA and showed off exit velocities that kept him with rare company - his 20.2% Brl% was the fourth-highest in baseball (min 250 BBE) and a 47.7% Air% (100+ mph) was in the top-6%. Plop that power in behind Rafael Devers and company and it's easy to see why Dalbec's post-200 ADP looked so appealing.
Cold Reality
But of course, you actually have to hit the ball. Dalbec has actually slashed his 34.4% K% from 2021 all the way to 30.7% but a 17.8% SwStr% isn't much different than last year's 18.0% SwStr% and rates that high tend to lead to > 35% K%. And a 64.2% Contact% is identical to last year but his chase rate is up three points and his chase-contact is down two points. This, my young padawan, is the path of Sano, which few can balance.
Even more troubling is that even when Dalbec does make contact, the pop is a mile away from what we saw last season. His Barrel% dropped from the 98th percentile to the 65th, Air% (100+) went from the 94th percentile to the 27th, and average EV on balls in the air is currently in the 10th(!) percentile, down from the 91st. Or, to put it another way, he went from Byron Buxton to Nick Madrigal. Yikes.
Verdict
Bobby Dalbec can be cut in all formats. He was never going to be a high-average hitter so his success was going to rest on whether he could keep hitting the seams off the ball whenever he did make contact. But you're not going to stick around if you whiff like Sano but with Madrigal EVs.
Plus, ever-lurking is Triston Casas, one of Boston's top prospects, who, while not destroying Triple-A, is also not batting .165 with a 30.7% K% like Dalbec is. Slashing .244/.353/.457 over 153 PA, with six HR and a .355 wOBA, it feels like it's only a matter of time before Casas supplants Dalbec for the big job.
Brendan Rodgers, COL, 2B/SS
2021: 415 PA - 15 HR - 49 R - 51 RBI - 0 SB - .284 AVG
2021: 109 PA - 2 HR - 14 R - 15 RBI - 0 SB - .218 AVG
2022 ADP: 164 ADP (97 min, 238 max), Hitter #101
2021 Hitter Rater: #174
2022 Hitter Rater: #165
Sleeper Dreams
Rodgers was a top-175 hitter in 2021 even though he managed just 415. But the hope of a full-time job in 2022 had his drafting dreaming of 25 HR, 160 R+RBI, and a .280 AVG that might go even higher in the thin air of Colorado.
Cold Reality
The good news is that when healthy, Rodgers has been locked in as Colorado's second baseman, and as we all know, the first step to a young Colorado player being good is actually getting a full-time job. The results, however, are a far cry from what we saw in 2021, particularly in the power department. Rodgers has only hit two home runs so far, with his HR per-PA rate dropping from .036 in 2021 to .018 this season.
But never fear, dear reader. The home runs may not have come yet but more should be in store, as Rodgers's top exit velocities are already tracking higher than in 2021. His 10.3% Brl% (68th percentile) is up from 6.2% (37th) and his Air% average EV is up from the 44th percentile to the 59th. I'm no scientist but hitting balls in the air harder tends to generally work out in Denver.
As the power comes, so will RBI and runs. And I don't expect a .218 AVG to stick around, even in this dead-ball world. Rodgers hit .284 last season but a .263 BABIP (.322 career heading into this season) probably doesn't stay that way as it heats up in Colorado.
Verdict
Brendan Rodgers is a hold and one of the higher upside options that you'll find on the wire in most formats. Even missing some time while banged up and with little power and a subpar (by his standards) batting average, Rodgers has still been an above-replacement player by total value and the improvements in exit velocities say more power could be on the way. Oh, and did I mention Coors?
As with most Colorado players, you'll have to put up with some road-trip blues but the Rockies offense has been much better than expected (seventh in runs, third in wOBA) and Rodgers should get plenty of RBI opportunities from his typical 5/6 hole. But just the fact that he's been in the lineup almost every game he's been healthy is a big encouragement, as the Rockies tend to be fond of torturing fantasy players but keeping their young players in time-shares with 40-year-olds.
Rodgers has already started heating up in May, slashing .360/.373/.580 over his last 51 PA in the month, with a .416 wOBA and 156 wRC+. Colorado's schedule is alternating weeks right now, but if you snag him now, you'll get four games at home before the Rockies head on the road for a week.
Gavin Lux, LAD, 2B/SS/OF
2021: 381 PA - 7 HR - 49 R - 46 RBI - 4 SB - .242 AVG
2022: 106 PA - 1 HR - 18 R - 8 RBI - 2 SB - .250 AVG
2022 ADP: 256 ADP (116 min, 400 max), Hitter #158
2021 Hitter Rater: #227
2022 Hitter Rater: #140
Sleeper Dreams
The Dodgers have seemingly gone out of their way to not have room for Lux as an everyday player but the stars seemed to align for such a thing in 2022, and his sleeper status was activated by a contingent who thought this would finally be the year that the once top-prospect would break out in a full-time role.
Cold Reality
The good news is that he is playing every day. Huzzah! The bad news is that his "breakout" looks more like a "meh-out" so far. Average and power? Meh. Spot in the order and the PAs it will garner? Meh. Fantasy production? Mehhhhh.
And while he has been starting against most LHP this season, it's not because he's gotten better at hitting them. Lux is slashing .217/.280/.261 with a .250 wOBA vs LHP, compared to .261/.358/.362 and a .327 wOBA vs RHP. Not that the latter is impressive but it does look that way when compared to the former. Luckily for him, though, the Dodgers don't really have a better option to afford sitting him vs LHP. I mean, who wants to start Hansel Alberto? (Ed. note: Michael Busch was recently promoted to Triple-A after a hot start but may not be called up until midseason or later)
Verdict
Gavin Lux is a hold but only if there isn't a better option on the wire. But that's a big if unless your waiver wire is really shallow. Lux has been fine, he's been playing regularly, and his total value has been above replacement, if only just barely. Those are all facts. But his current level of production makes him imminently replaceable and there is a wide swath of players that I'd consider to be an upgrade, or at least a lateral move, at worst.
For example, you'd think Kolten Wong (#8 2B on the Razzball player rater) and Andres Gimenez (#9 2B) aren't available in most leagues but they're only ~65% rostered on Yahoo - or around the same as Lux. Sheldon Neuse (#14) is at 50%, Jorge Mateo (#15) and Jurickson Profar (#17) are at 40%, and Ha-Seong Kim (#19) is at 20%. And then there is Lux, sitting all the way back at the #32 2B, coming in right behind Cesar Hernandez (11%).
I get that people want formerly shiny things to pan out but with no category potential that sticks out, for the time being, Lux remains just a dude that can be churned as necessary.
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