Short-Season Draft Risers and Fallers: RotoBaller Staff Picks

Recently, the RotoBaller MLB staff provided their thoughts on the best draft strategies for a shortened season. You can read that article right here.

The fantasy baseball season is ready to kick up (finally) but things won't be the same as usual. Some players may be more appealing now that they've had time to work through injuries, while others who may have provided long-term value may not be worth drafting in this "sprint" of a season.

With that in mind, I polled our writers and asked who their top risers and fallers were for 2020. Here's what they said.

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What players are climbing up your draft board due to the delayed/shortened season?

Stephen Strasburg and Carlos Correa. Strasburg is such a talented pitcher who had his first true ace season in years but is prone to missing significant chunks of time. In 2019, he pitched at least 200 innings for the first time since 2014 and with a shortened season he can once again pitch a "full" season. Correa is basically the hitting version of Strasburg. Elite when on the field, but hasn't played in more than 110 games since 2016. -Kev Mahserejian

Five-category players (or even strong four-category players) should be pushed up even more. Keston Hiura, Austin Meadows, Nick Castellanos are a few examples. Check out this article on Finding Combo Players Using Z-Scores which is still relevant. -Ariel Cohen

Jesus Luzardo, Chris Paddack, Michael Kopech, Adalberto Mondesi, Avisail Garcia, Alex Verdugo, Kevin Cron, Ian Happ. -Dave Emerick

Pitchers who I liked before as a late-round flyer have become almost must-roster arms. Guys like James Karinchak who now could see save opportunities frequently will still have plenty of value for Ks, ERA and WHIP. I expect the teams with serious playoff aspirations (which should be all 30 this year) to have even shorter leashes for their closers too as wins are even more vital and managers are unlikely to want to let their closer work things out while blowing wins in a 60-game season. -Jamie Steed

Lance Lynn, Shane Bieber, and Mike Soroka. - Michael Simione

The short season will mean teams will play the majority of their games within their own division. As a result, I have more interest in AL Central pitchers thanks to the weak lineups and pitcher's parks in that division. I particular, I love Twins pitcher Kenta Maeda who has always been elite on a per inning basis but was never given the chance to throw a ton of innings while with the Dodgers. -Mike Schwarzenbach

Jack-of-all-trade players who can contribute in all five categories, at least the counting stats, such as Danny Santana are going to rise. I'm not worrying much about batting average in a 60-game window, but players who can contribute power and speed will be big. And those slated to hit leadoff or cleanup to kick things off may also get an additional nod. -Nick Mariano

Injury-risk players like Giancarlo Stanton are typically off my draft board, but if they only need to stay healthy for two months, I'm more comfortable selecting them this year. If a major injury does happen, it'll be easier to cut bait early instead of them occupying bench space while waiting several weeks for a return. While it's still an uneasy feeling to potentially lose that draft capital, with COVID-19 still lingering, any player could go down for multiple weeks at any given time, so I'm not concerned about injuries. -Riley Mrack

For hitters: Tim Anderson, Ozzie Albies, Starling Marte, Garrett Hampson. Not that these hitters were low on my list to begin with, but with the shortened season, any hitter that can provide help in power, runs, RBI and stolen base categories will be even more of a huge commodity in a short season.

For pitchers: Edwin Diaz, Mark Melancon, Keone Kela. I tend to punt closers in fantasy drafts. Instead, I typically focus on talent over role in an effort to grab handcuffs late in drafts who may inherit the closer role over the course of a full season. That said, with a 60-game season, there will be far less chance for closer turnover, putting greater value on those, otherwise, shaky guys who already have the closer role to start the season. -Nick Ritrivi

Players climbing my draft board include all front-end SP as well as young pitchers who may have been on an innings limit (Zac Gallen, Dustin May, Julio Urias, etc.) -Connelly Doan

Veteran starting pitchers that can go deeper into games are moving up my draft board. Hitters that have higher contact rates and put the ball in play more often. Multi-positional players will have much more added value. Expanded rosters will produce more platoon situations so lineup flexibility will be huge. -Dave Swan

What players are you no longer considering in 2020?

I was not huge on prospects already, but players like Luis Robert are definitely off my board. Also, Jesus Luzardo’s price is too high as he likely will only throw 3-4 innings early on and maybe most of the season. -Brian Entrekin

Jo Adell, Spencer Howard. Rookies who were originally forecast to be called up mid-season may not get their opportunity at the MLB level in 2020. Despite their talent, it is questionable whether major league clubs will be willing to impact precious service time for a season that may not even be completed due to COVID-19 issues. -Nick Ritrivi

Starting pitchers in the top 100 of average draft position. Starting pitching is difficult to project in a normal year, this year forget about it. Guys will get hurt due to the layoff. Starters will be pulled early. Innings limits won't matter. Right now I have as much interest in Zac Gallen and Matthew Boyd as I do in Gerrit Cole or Jacob deGrom. -Mike Schwarzenbach

Pitchers toward the back end of the rotation are a no-go for me this year. The bullpen is going to chew into starter innings more than ever, but at least with high-end starters you can get the most out of their innings and they are more likely to last until the sixth or seventh inning. Guys without a high K-rate can be erased from the draft board. That means no Reynaldo Lopez, Sean Manaea, Dallas Keuchel, Miles Mikolas, or those types. - Pierre Camus

I was subscribing to taking an ace early when drafting in March, but now the likes of Gerrit Cole and Jacob deGrom will go long before when I'm ready to select them. Pitchers on new teams also make me a bit skittish since unfamiliarity with a new mound or catcher could result in a sluggish start. One or two bad outings can make an early-season ERA and WHIP totals difficult to even out with not as many games to help recover in these categories. -Riley Mrack

Pete Alonso and Trevor Story. I want to avoid high strikeout hitters who are more prone to slumps. -Scott Engel

"Availability is the best ability" is one of my draft mottos but that is out the window now. Players I typically would draft with the assumption of playing 162 games like Paul Goldschmidt and Eric Hosmer are off of my board. Both have been on the decline but their ability to stay healthy and provide counting stats without killing your average has been valuable. -Kev Mahserejian

Anyone who has an injury question mark or a guy I'd draft late with question marks over their health. People seem to be pro-rating injuries but a hamstring injury which takes six weeks to recover from will still take six weeks to recover from in a shortened season. The difference being instead of missing ~25% of the season, they'll now be missing ~65% of the season. Byron Buxton is a prime example, as much as I like him, I won't be taking him anywhere near his current ADP. -Jamie Steed

I am no longer considering back of the rotation starting pitchers. They are not going to go deep enough in games to pick up the wins. I am also steering clear of crowded bullpens. The margin for error will be thinner than ever and I predict closers will lose jobs quicker than ever. -Dave Swan

While I may still look at these types of players at the end of drafts, players who are dropping for me include those battling for playing time like Jesse Winker and Nick Senzel. -Connelly Doan

I am not shying away from anyone in particular, sans injury-risk players as Aaron Judge, and ill players like Carlos Carrasco. I'd simply move away from one category players like Mallex Smith. One thought though, any players expected to miss time should be lowered slightly. Mike Trout will miss time for his family ... you may not want to pick him early in the first round this season. -Ariel Cohen

I feel less inclined to make a conscious effort to draft those safe, innings-eaters at SP. Since nobody is throwing 180+ innings, I don't need steady results over a long period of time. Now, that's not to say I want volatile arms - two bad starts can crush you - but I don't care as much about a pitcher's innings totals over the years. That means I'm not going to look at guys like Chris Archer, Jose Quintana, Julio Teheran, Kyle Gibson, etc. -Eric Samulski

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