Buyer Beware: Early-Season Waiver Wire Mirages?

Baseball is back, and I figured what better time to rejoin the guys at RotoBaller than now. The first article I wrote back in 2017 feels like it was so long ago. With that being said, I'm excited to get this weekly article underway. There are a lot of different weekly articles out there, but this one has a bit of a different twist to it. Everyone, including myself, has a weekly waiver wire article and opinions on guys who should be picked up and rostered. This isn't that.

The plan for this article is to highlight some waiver wire darlings you should think twice about before adding. Some guys may look good on paper, but their advanced stats suggest otherwise. These typically are guys who are on a nice little run but are set to come crashing down sooner rather than later. In the grand scheme of things, fantasy baseball is a marathon, not a sprint. Your waiver wire moves should focus on bringing long-term success rather than a short-term advantage.

The only exception to that rule would be streaming pitchers. Then you can justify short-term additions, but many of those include dropping the guy you streamed last week. When it's this early in the season, outside of incredibly deep leagues or injury, you shouldn't be scrambling to make moves on the waiver wire. Draft correctly and you can be set in your lineup for quite some time. Should you still be in the predicament of needing to hit the waiver wire, though, let this serve as an article meant to help you decide on the best option.

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Travis d'Arnaud, Atlanta Braves

D'Arnaud came into 2023 knowing he was going to likely be the lesser-used side of a platoon with newly-acquired Sean Murphy. He responded by going 4-for-5 in the season opener, scoring two and driving in two. That's one hell of a way to make sure you weren't forgotten. Since Opening Day though, D'Arnaud hasn't seen quite the same success, going 2-for-8 in his next two games.

There are a few reasons why D'Arnaud is on this list. Firstly, he's been one of the most added players since Opening Day. Secondly, there isn't much data to support this level of success actually continuing. Yes, yes, yes... I am aware of the small sample size and all that good stuff. While small sample sizes are truly hard to evaluate, you can still surmise some information from them. Take his batting average, for example. Hitting .462 is great, but his xBA is over 100 points lower at .321. The dip in his slugging is even more significant. His slugging currently sits at .538 while his xSLG is just .385.

D'Arnaud's zone contact and whiff rates also give a reason for pause. His zone contact rate through three games is just 72.7%, well below the MLB average of 82%. His whiff rate is currently above league average at 26.9%. For a guy sporting a current strikeout rate of 15.4%, it's a bit discouraging to see that his whiff rate is so high. This will likely lead to many more strikeouts in the future. Atlanta is likely just riding the hot hand in D'Arnaud to start the season and a decline in his play and at-bats are surely not far off.

He went 3-for-4 today (April 4) with another double and no strikeouts. That's a nice bounce-back game for him after this write-up, but he's still vastly outperforming his xBA and xSLG.

Riley Greene, Detroit Tigers

For whatever reason, this offseason many people seemed dead set that the "Riley Greene will breakout this year" narrative was a hill they'd die on. That sounds a lot like my "Jarred Kelenic is incredible; you all just haven't seen his best yet" hill I'm securely planted atop as I type this. The problem with that is the fact that Greene hasn't actually done anything to deserve that level of promise. A 60-grade hit tool and 60-grade power look cool on paper, but it needs to translate to real-world production.

In 110 combined games in 2022, he hit a whopping six home runs. Detroit this offseason did their best to try and help him and others by moving in and shortening their outfield fences. That might be helpful when the Tigers start playing some home games. The road hasn't been nearly as kind to Greene thus far. Hitting just .200 to start the season, both his strikeout rate (29.4%) and average exit velocity (89.7 MPH) have been nothing spectacular.

Greene's problem so far seems to be his ability to see the ball. Through the first three games, he's swinging at just 60.9% of pitches in the zone. On the flip side, he's chasing pitches outside the zone 38.4% of the time. His contact numbers are great thanks to a wild 66.7% chase contact rate, but not all contact is good contact. Until Greene starts showing a better understanding of the zone and the ability to swing at good pitches, it's hard to trust him in fantasy baseball.

Adding this in after his 3-for-4 game against the Astros on April 4, nothing has changed for me. His exit velocities were 81.2 MPH, 72.4 MPH, and 76 MPH. His upside was supposed to be his power. We still need to see it.

Zach Eflin, Tampa Bay Rays

New year, new team for righty Zach Eflin. And while I do have some hope for an excellent season from him, his first start didn't give me much in the way of confidence. Yes, it does sound crazy because he went five innings, only giving up three hits and a run. But there is a lot you can take away from that start that makes me hesitant.

First, the fact that his cutter was his second-most-used pitch in this outing worries me. In 2022, it was his fourth-most-used pitch and it got hit pretty hard. The .375 BAA and .302 xBA were atrocious. It doesn't seem to be much better in 2023, either. He threw it 19 times and it ended up with an xBA of .315. He managed an average of 125 more RPM on the ball, but that only accounted for one more inch of horizontal movement and a lowly 9.1% whiff rate.

If this is a trend that is going to continue for Eflin, his starts aren't going to be as kind to fantasy owners going forward. His start came against the lowly Detroit Tigers. Any team that is an offensive threat will eat him up, especially in that division. There is a lot to like about Eflin this season, but expectations should be tempered until we know if this is a trend that will continue.

Joey Gallo, Minnesota Twins

If you know anything about Joey Gallo, you know that you have to take the good with the bad. And by bad I mean like... really, really bad. But he is also one of those guys where when he's on, he's on. The problem with Gallo is that he really hasn't been "on" since 2021, and even then, the only real benefit to him is power. He hit 38 home runs that season and already has three so far in 2023.

The buyer-beware aspect of Gallo is everything else besides his power. As it sits currently, he's a cool 4-for-16 with three home runs and a double – good for an xBA of .348 and xSLG of 1.201. I don't think I need to tell you, but just in case I do, those numbers trump anything Gallo has ever done, including his pair of 40+ home-run seasons in 2017 and 2018. What Gallo is not and has never been is a guy who hits for average. Even though his strikeout rate is currently about 10% better than his career average, it's still 28.6%, well above the league average. He's whiffing on 32% of pitches, including 35% of fastballs, and he has been swinging more in general at 50%.

A streaky hitter throughout his career prone to hot and cold streaks, all we are witnessing at this point is a hot streak. All of his damage came in a two-game stretch where he went 4-for-7 with a double, three home runs, and seven RBIs. Outside of that, Gallo has gone 0-for-9 with six strikeouts. If you want to take a chance on hoping he can continue being hot, then be my guest; just know that it's much more likely he goes hitless in his next 12 at-bats than it is for him to hit a home run in that time frame.

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