Fantasy Baseball Breakout Hitters Watch and Underachievers, Overachievers (Week 15)

Welcome back to my Week 15 edition of the Fantasy Baseball Breakout Hitters series for the 2024 MLB season. We're going to take our usual look around the league as we head into the weekend to see who is showing signs of some meaningful trends that can be revealing in some form or another. Perhaps a hitter is about to break out or on the verge of a cold spell.

Checking in on who's hot (or not) can bring to light some notable names. Those names then become potential waiver-wire targets or sneaky DFS plays (or avoids) until the rest of the fantasy community catches on.

Below, we'll check in on players with the longest hit streaks, highest batting average, and highest ISO over the last seven days, as well as some regression candidates and more. Note that totals are designated by the number in parentheses next to the player's name.

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Hit Streak Leaders

(data through 6/27)   

I'm not ignoring Bryan Reynolds, it's that I just covered him a couple days ago in my "Players to Watch For the Week Ahead" article. I might be ignoring Yandy Diaz, though, but you know he's good, so let's move down the list one more and talk about that guy.

Connor Wong (13)

Connor Wong began the season hot, and even though he showed up in the below "Overachievers" section, the backstop has yet to slow down. The 28-year-old owns a .330-7-29-26-3 line on the season with a .381 wOBA and 143 wRC+. He hit .343 in April, .316 in May, and .333 so far in June, so he's been doing it all season long. Wong has been a revelation at his position this season, currently ranking as the fifth-highest-scoring catcher for fantasy after going undrafted in most leagues. He's still very under-rostered in Yahoo leagues, available in 44% of them, so go get him!

Connor Wong is RED hot. 🔥

(🎥: @MLB)pic.twitter.com/ER8gyaP93i

— theScore (@theScore) June 23, 2024

Highest Batting Average Last Seven Days

(minimum 13 AB, games through 6/26) 

Check out the names on this list. There are some intriguing names here that can help fill out a DFS lineup and could also be worthwhile adds in redraft leagues.

Jonathan India (.571)

After winning NL Rookie of the Year in 2021, finishing with a .269-21-69-98-12 line with a .363 wOBA and 122 wRC+, the two follow-up seasons have not been quite as magical. The former first-round draft pick posted 96 and 99 wRC+ campaigns in 2022 and 2023, respectively; however, there were some positive takeaways. India improved his contact rate, SwStr%, and chase rate year-over-year, and all of those stats are even better this season.

.@JonathanIndia is hitting .385 in the month of June‼️ pic.twitter.com/M3y1zZVxng

— Cincinnati Reds (@Reds) June 28, 2024

Despite a slow start, finishing May slashing .224/.343/.316, the 27-year-old has turned it on in June, slashing .368/.451/.553 during the month and now .268/.376/.388 on the season. He's now riding an eight-game hit streak with multi-hit games in five straight. A big part of his down year last year and renaissance this season is due to his success against left-handed pitching. For whatever reason, he could not hit LHP last season despite hitting them better the two prior seasons. He's back and hitting them better than ever this season.

If he can keep it up, this should end up looking much like his ROY season of 2021.

(Update: India recorded another two-hit game Thursday, going 2-for-4)

Alec Burleson (.524)

Alec Burleson is having his finest season so far as a major leaguer, currently posting a .289-12-36-32-5 line with a .346 wOBA and 127 wRC+ through 72 games. The 25-year-old has six multi-hit games in his last eight games, hitting .419 during that stretch. The former second-round draft pick is still available in 25% of Yahoo leagues and is eligible at both 1B and OF, adding to his appeal for managers looking for a hot bat that is capable of producing in multiple categories.

(Update: Burleson went 0-for-4 on Thursday)

Highest ISO Last Seven Days

(minimum 13 AB, games through 6/26)

When it comes to fantasy, especially DFS, we want to see power. More big hits mean more points. Big hits usually drive in more runs, which means more points. Doubles and triples put hitters in a better position to score, which means? You guessed it -- more points! So, who's hitting for extra bases over the past week?

Francisco Alvarez (.857)

Francisco Alvarez now has an eight-game hit streak going, hitting a whopping .556 (15-for-27) over that time with four doubles and three home runs. The backstop has also walked more than he's struck out during the streak (7:6), so he's definitely locked in right now. He missed nearly two months on the IL, so his season-long stats aren't all that impressive, but he's coming off a season in 2023 in which he belted 25 home runs on the back of a 12.5% Barrel% in just 123 games, so you know the power is real. The 22-year-old is available in 25% of Yahoo leagues and should be scooped up where possible.

The Baby Mets are all grown up.

Francisco Alvarez follows Mark Vientos' 2 home run day with a home run of his own! pic.twitter.com/88TwmpePKd

— MLB (@MLB) June 27, 2024

Byron Buxton (.565)

Over the last three weeks, Byron Buxton's bat has heated up, going 19-for-58 (.328) since June 7 (16 games). During that time, he's collected eight extra-base hits (four doubles, a triple, three HRs), drove in 11 runs, scored 11 times, and stolen three bases. As a former second overall draft pick, the talent hasn't really been in question during his career, it has been a matter of staying healthy. The 30-year-old has played more than 100 games in a season just once in his nine-year career prior to 2024.

Despite the recent surge, he's still got just a .251-6-27-29-5 line on the season, so he's not a slam-dunk fantasy asset. But if you have faith he'll stay on the field for the foreseeable future, then managers could try to catch lightning in a bottle.

(Update: Buxton went 3-for-4 with another HR on Thursday)

Most Steals Last Seven Days

(data as of 6/26) 

CJ Abrams (3)

As with Burleson (who is also on this list), CJ Abrams is having the best season of his young career so far, tallying a .280-12-40-48-13 line with a .357 wOBA and 131 wRC+. He was dealing with a minor injury earlier this week, but it appears to be a non-issue as he's been one of the hotter hitters over the last seven days, hitting .480 (12-for-25) with four doubles and a homer this past week. The 23-year-old has four three-hit games in his last six and has hit safely in 15 of his last 17 games. With his power-speed combo, he's become one of the best multi-category producers for fantasy.

xSLG Underachievers

(data through 6/26, minimum 200 AB)

Below are hitters who have some of the biggest differences between their current slugging percentage and their expected slugging percentage, or xSLG. While many times this is a good exercise to see who is on the verge of turning things around, it's not certain. Sometimes hitters over or underperform their xSLG throughout their career, so regression to the xSLG may not happen.

Julio Rodriguez (.335 vs. .437)

Coming off two consecutive seasons in which he boasted a 126 wRC+ or better, it's painful for fantasy managers to see it sitting at 89 so far in 2024. But fear not, in 2022, the Dominican had a .275/.337/.477 slash line in the first half, then .303/.361/.576 in the second half. Last season, it was a .249/.310/.411 slash line in the first half, then .308/.363/.578 in the second half.

So this isn't really anything new, and managers should expect J-Rod to start picking it up soon. The 23-year-old has maintained some fantasy value with 16 stolen bases despite the sluggish start and could be a good buy-low candidate if you happen to find a disenchanted manager to trade with.

Corey Seager (.441 vs. .543)

Julio Rodriguez has the same difference in actual versus expected SLG as Corey Seager, but you can see that their starting points are much different (.335 compared to .441), which helps put Rodriguez's start in perspective. Seager hasn't had a poor season, it just hasn't been as productive as we're used to from him. The 30-year-old is near a career high in contact rate, striking out well below league average, walking above league average, and near career lows in SwStr% and chase rate.

COREY SEAGER TIES THE GAME IN THE 9TH WITH ONE SWING OF THE BAT!!!

📺: FOX pic.twitter.com/RcUnRf801c

— FOX Sports: MLB (@MLBONFOX) October 28, 2023

So, it feels like we're on the precipice of a trademark heater from the veteran. Last time I mentioned him in this section, he hit eight home runs in eight games, so opposing pitchers better watch out. The four-time All-Star is hitting just .180 (9-for-50) since June 4, which is right around the time his last heater came to a halt.

(Update: Seager went 2-for-5 on Thursday)

xSLG Overachiever

(data through 6/26, minimum 100 AB)

We'll touch on a hitter below who might eventually cool off. In this case, the SLG is much higher than the xSLG, and some regression should be expected. Note that the players who've shown up on this list so far this season have continued to hit well for a while, so don't expect them to go ice-cold. Rather, it's usually more of a gradual decline.

Steven Kwan (.552 vs. .432)

Steven Kwan is having an incredible season and it should continue based on all the peripheral metrics. That is, with one exception. His current home-run pace puts him at about 17 home runs by season's end. That would be a remarkable amount with just a 2.0% Barrel% (third percentile) and 21.8% hard-hit% (second percentile). There's no reason the 26-year-old won't hit well above .300 when it is all said and done this season, but don't count on 17+ home runs.

(Update: Kwan went 1-for-5 on Thursday, no HRs)

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