RADIO
As the second month of the 2018 MLB season finishes, there were some standout performances and some forgettable ones in May.
Since we have crossed the quarter-mark for the season, which players can we target in possible trade talks? Do we buy into recent hot streaks or stay patient to see how things play out in the early Summer months?
Whether our teams are competing for a title or rebuilding, we have to look to roster the players that best fit our plans. Here are some May movers and shakers to consider as trade commodities in your fantasy baseball leagues.
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Hot May Performances to Buy
Brandon Belt, San Francisco Giants
Surrounded by J.D. Martinez and Freddie Freeman by WAR in May, Brandon Belt (1B, SF) has hit .327 in May with five HR and 17 RBI. He's shown that his April was no fluke, as he is hitting the ball in the air 47% of the time. His 46% hard-contact rate and 35.0 LD% have boosted his batting average and contributed to seven doubles for the month. In May, Belt led all first basemen with a 9.1 offensive-WAR.
Even though his LD% may dip closer to his 25.0 career-LD% for the rest of the season, his 48% career-FB% and 36% career-Hard% are enough to provide another 14-15 HR. Although his .406 BABIP in May should decline, his .271 career-batting average is high enough to provide above-average BA.
Belt has improved against four-seam fastballs, as his 1.158 OPS vs. four-seamers is up from his .883 career-OPS vs. four-seamers. After posting a .727 OPS vs. cutters in 2017, he has had more success (1.115 OPS) against cutters in 2018. He has handled pitches down and in well, as he has a .533 ISO in that portion of the zone.
If Belt can sustain his increased hard contact, he could hit join the 30-HR club for the first time.
Christian Yelich, Milwaukee Brewers
After finishing March and April with a .271, 2 HR, 12 RBI, and 1 SB line, Christian Yelich (OF, MIL) has picked up the pace in May. Yelich's .327, 5 HR, 16 RBI, and 5 SB in May place in seventh amongst all outfielders in offensive WAR.
He has increased his line-drive rate to 25% in 2018, and his hard-contact rate has moved from 35% in 2017 to 43.6% in 2018. Most of his damage comes against right-handers, as he has a .939 OPS vs. RHP. Unlike his years in Miami, he has provided equal offensive production at home and on the road. The outfielder has a .325, 3 HR, 11 RBI, and 3 SB at Miller Park, and a .286, 3 HR, 13 RBI, and 3 SB in away games.
In the nine different areas of the strike zone, Yelich has a .200 ISO or higher in five of them. He handles pitches down and in (.203 ISO) and in and at the belt (.224 ISO) well.
(Courtesy of BrooksBaseball.net)
After successfully stealing 16 of his 18 stolen base attempts in 2017, he has swiped 6 of his 7 stolen base attempts in 2018. With his success rate, he should continue to see enough SB chances to surpass Steamer's projection of eight SB for the rest of the season.
Matt Carpenter, St. Louis Cardinals
After only hitting two home runs in March and April, Matt Carpenter (3B, STL) hit .293 with 5 HR and 11 RBI. He posted the third-highest offensive WAR in May amongst 3B.
He paired his 52.7 FB% with a 61.2% hard-contact rate. Carpenter has increased his average exit velocity from 92.4 MPH in 2017 to 94.4 MPH in 2018. His .317 ISO in May has come from different parts of the zone. He has performed well against up and in pitches (.500 ISO) and down and in (.400 ISO) pitches in 2018. While pitches low and away have given him trouble, he has a .471 ISO against away pitches at the belt. Moving his walk rate to 10.8% in May still contributed a .376 OBP for the month, which was fifth-best at third base.
Even though he probably won't continue to hit five home runs a month, he has the tools to match and even surpass Steamer's projection of .252, 11 HR, and 37 RBI for the rest of 2018. If one is willing to take on some possible injury risk (shoulder and back), owners may be able to make a move for Carpenter. His positional flexibility can also help a roster.
Trevor Bauer, Cleveland Indians
Coming into the season, Trevor Bauer (RHP, CLE) was leaving draft boards between picks 120-150. In May, he has been the sixth-most valuable SP with a 1.3 WAR. The right-hander elevated his K/9 to 11.3, and he lowered his BB/9 to 2.5. He increased his average fastball velocity to 95.2 MPH for the month, and his two-seam fastball is now his least-used pitch.
His curveball (15.3 SwStr%) and cutter (17.7 SwStr%) have backed his bump in strikeouts, as he owns an 8.9 career-K/9. While his 6.3% hr/f should move closer to his 11.5% career-hr/f, his 3.38 SIERA says that it's mostly backed by skills.
In 2018, Bauer's 46.0 GB% has held steady, and his exit velocity allowed on FB/LD is down slightly to 93.4 MPH. If looking to acquire Bauer in a trade, just keep Steamer's 3.77 ERA projection in mind. He should continue to have success, even though he may allow more home runs (as hr/f increases) over the next four months.
Ross Stripling, Los Angeles Dodgers
During the month of May, Ross Stripling (RHP, LA) was the fifth-most valuable SP. Although his 88.6 LOB% and 7.3% hr/f will give back some ERA gains, his 2.78 SIERA is worth targeting while Rich Hill is out of the Dodgers rotation. Currently, Stripling has the second-lowest Hard Hit percentage (24.6%) amongst starting pitchers.
Yes, two starts against San Diego has boosted his 10.99 K/9, but he also struck out nine Washington hitters in six innings on May 19. Stripling's curveball (16.9 SwStr%) and change-up (13.2 SwStr%) have supported his strikeouts while also inducing 70.0+ GB% on both pitches. His 55.7 GB% in May contributed to a 1.70 xFIP.
Not only can he strikeout batters, but he continues to lower ratios with his control. In May, he threw balls 31% of the time, and ended the month with 1.2 BB/9. His walk rate was sixth amongst qualified SP. His pitches have missed barrels through six GS, as his 2.0 Brls/PA is the sixth-lowest in MLB.
His IP projection range from Steamer's 61 IP to ZIPS' 66 IP. For those owners that are willing to take a risk that he sees more IP, his skills in May were good enough to put him in the same neighborhood as Max Scherzer and Luis Severino.
