X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Hitters Advanced Statistics: Keys to Analyzing Fantasy Trends

Advanced statistics are not new. Though as recently as 10 years ago they were the subject of much derision among sportswriters and broadcasters, all but the most hidebound and dusty now acknowledge their existence, with most embracing them at least to some extent. Even Hawk Harrelson-- he of "The Will to Win"-- accepts and uses On-Base Percentage during ChiSox broadcasts. At this stage, of course, it seems kind of ridiculous that On-Base Percentage or Slugging Percentage are considered advanced stats: they are stats kept in many of our fantasy baseball leagues, and nearly every baseball fan is conversant with them.

But that's exactly the point. When these stats were new, the few people who could understand them had a decided edge in analysis. But now that they are common, they aren't as good at getting a leg up on the competition. So we're going to look at some other stats-- some relatively common, some more on the fringe (at least depending on whom you're talking to)-- that can help you get the inside edge in your fantasy baseball league this year.

 

Advanced Stats for Fantasy Baseball

A quick note before we proceed: these are all projection stats. Baseball is a strange and unpredictable game, and wonderful because of that. Odd things can happen, distanced from any analysis. But these advanced stats should give you a good idea of how things should go in the future.

 

BABIP

This is a stat that is on the verge of mainstream acceptance, but until it gets there, it is one of the key indicators you can use to get the edge on other people in your league.  It stands for "batting average on balls in play," and is pronounced "BAH-bip". What it measures is a batter's average on balls that can potentially make an out. This excludes walks, home runs, and strikeouts-- the three outcomes that the defense has nothing to do with. While players generally have a 30% average to get a hit on balls in play, the numbers can swing wildly for a week, a month or even a season, and also vary based on hitter's skills.

And you know this, instinctively. How many times have you heard an announcer say "Hit well, but bad luck! Right to a fielder!" All the time, right? Because here is the thing: most hitters cannot control exactly where the ball goes, and no one can do it consistently. What they can do is control how hard they hit the ball, and how frequently they make solid contact (more on this later).

We see BAPIP flukes all the time, and you can use this to your advantage. Say you've drafted 2015 golden boy Josh Donaldson, who should be about a .265 hitter. After three weeks, he's hitting .387, and ESPN is going nuts about how he's taking his game to a new level. Now, he's a great player, but you look, and see his BABIP is well over .400.  You can expect that BA to drop significantly as the BABIP normalizes closer to Donaldson's historical norm of .290. But your buddy doesn't know that, and so Donaldson's trade value is worth way more than it should be. You strike fast, and are able to turn a hot start into Anthony Rizzo and Anthony Rendon, who maybe struggled out of the gate. You'll smile smugly when Donaldson bats .220 in May.

 

Line-Drive / Ground Ball / Fly Ball Percentage

Pretty straightforward. What percentage of a batter's balls in play are line-drives, fly balls, or ground balls? This is usually a stat that describes why a player is good, rather than predicting that he will be good. Hitting it in the air tends to produce the most outs, but also home runs for the powerful guys. Ground balls cause a slightly lower % of outs than fly balls, on average (speedy guys like Dee Gordon are an exception), and line-drive hitters tend to have the most fluctuation due to luck, but will usually have the highest batting averages.

While this isn't a stat generally used for predictive purposes, you can use it if you see what appears to be a flukish start for a player on your squad or on someone else's.  Imagine a buddy has Joey Votto, and after a month he has ten home runs. You see that Votto's FB% is at a low 28%, as opposed to the 40% level of most power hitters. One of your league mates might assume Votto has his power stroke back, but it is more likely he had some great luck in seeing a huge percentage of those fly balls leave the park.

Votto will soon regress to his career norm HR/FB rate, and with the low number of fly balls he hits in the first place, the power that came back in a flash will fade away just as quickly. By paying attention to career norms and small sample sizes, you have more information with which to analyze a players potential future performance. If your friend isn't looking closely at the numbers, he might be willing to make a trade and overpay for Votto.

 

UBR

This is a fun one, especially for people who say you can't quantify things like smart base-running. Well, this attempts to do just that.  Different places have different methods of calculating it, but UBR seems to me to be the most comprehensive. It is important to note that it doesn't account for base-stealing, which is separate category. It takes into account things like properly tagging up, advancing from second to third on a grounder to short, taking an extra base (or getting caught while trying to do so).  It is properly complicated-- I'm certainly glad someone else charts this and does the math-- but it does give you an insight into a player's game, especially if he has been traded or his team has been reshaped around him.

A high UBR shows you that the player does an excellent and often team-independent job of getting in position to score.  So if your player has scored a lot of runs, but you are worried how a trade might affect that, take a look at UBR. Obviously, runs scored are always team-dependent, but getting yourself in position to score is often a matter of individual skill. A good UBR player won't drop off the map because he has a lesser batter hitting behind him, whereas a bad one will struggle more.

 

O-Swing, Z-Swing & Others

While these might sound like the names of mediocre rappers performing "hip" life lessons at a middle-school symposium on strangers, they are actually fascinating ways to measure a batter's plate discipline.

O-Swing is the percentage of pitches outside the strike zone a batter swings at; z-swing the percentage inside the zone.  You also have O- and Z-contact, as well as a few others to help you determine how frequently a hitter makes contact on pitches outside and inside the zone.  You want lower in the O and higher in the Z in terms of swinging.  There are exceptions, like Vlad Guerrero swinging at an insane 40% of pitches out of the zone in his career-- but Vlad was insanely great, and he connected on nearly 70% of those. Vlad is the exception.

This is a great way to track someone's progress as a hitter, to see if he is maturing, or if he is always going to be swinging at everything. When analyzing a player's career, see if he is improving in terms of plate discipline. Interestingly, some guys like Adam Dunn have great plate discipline (which is why he walks a ton) and huge strikeouts for the same reason: he never  swings at pitches outside of the zone, and too often keeps his bat on his shoulder on pitches that are close, putting him in the hole on corner pitches. Use these stats to judge a player's mental development before drafting. Also, players with higher Z-contact rates are less prone to wild batting average swings. They more frequently make contact with quality pitches to hit, giving them a better chance to maintain a solid average.

 

So, that's just a few of many amazing new hitting stats that not only have reflective, but also predictive possibilities. Even if your league still holds batting average sacred and feels that runs scored is the one true measurement of a hitter, you can see the factors that go into these stats, and you can use that knowledge to take hold of your league. Doing so will prove that you have The Will To Win.

 




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Scottie Barnes11 mins ago

Iffy For Thursday
A.J. Puk14 mins ago

Holds On For Second Save Of The Season
Immanuel Quickley17 mins ago

Takes Thursday Off
Luis Matos20 mins ago

Goes Yard In Giants Victory
Jakob Poeltl23 mins ago

Sits Out Thursday's Game
Damian Lillard27 mins ago

May Return To Action Sooner Than Expected
Camilo Doval29 mins ago

Secures Series Sweep For San Francisco
Andrés Muñoz38 mins ago

Andres Munoz Shaky But Earns High-Stress Save
Giannis Antetokounmpo41 mins ago

Likely To Suit Up Thursday
Jeff Hoffman45 mins ago

Closes Sweep With A Save
LeBron James48 mins ago

Probable Thursday
Luke Jackson53 mins ago

Earns Third Save Of The Season
Dylan Cease1 hour ago

Keeps Padres Rolling
Marcelo Mayer1 hour ago

Goes Deep In Second-Straight Game
Harrison Bader1 hour ago

Homers To Secure Twins Win
Dom Hamel1 hour ago

Tosses Five Shutout Frames In Season Debut
Michael Helman2 hours ago

Busy In Wednesday's Victory
Matt Shaw2 hours ago

Stays Hot At The Plate
Sean Burke2 hours ago

Stumbles In Second Start
Jacob Wilson2 hours ago

Extends Hitting Streak To Seven Games
Jared McCann2 hours ago

Tallies Three Helpers On Wednesday
Jackson Blake2 hours ago

Scores Twice In Victory
Artemi Panarin3 hours ago

Tallies Three Points In Overtime Victory
Andrei Svechnikov3 hours ago

Exits Early On Wednesday
Jake McCabe3 hours ago

Suffers Injury On Wednesday
Jonathan Drouin3 hours ago

Exits Wednesday's Contest
Trevor Story3 hours ago

Homers In Wednesday Win
Hunter Goodman3 hours ago

Homers In Loss To Phillies
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.3 hours ago

Hits Two-Run HR Wednesday
Anthony Volpe3 hours ago

Hits Three-Run Homer Wednesday
Tommy Edman3 hours ago

Hits Two-Run Homer Wednesday
Logan O'Hoppe3 hours ago

Hits Grand Slam On Wednesday
Byron Buxton4 hours ago

Doubles, Homers, Drives In Two On Wednesday
Los Angeles Chargers11 hours ago

Chargers Sign Tight End Jordan Petaia
11 hours ago

Matthew Golden Making Pre-Draft Visit To Steelers
Cincinnati Bengals12 hours ago

Trey Hendrickson Not Looking For Short-Term Deal
Tutu Atwell12 hours ago

Rams Plan To Give Tutu Atwell A Bigger Role In 2025
Tampa Bay Buccaneers12 hours ago

Bucs Restructure Antoine Winfield's Deal To Free Up Cap Space
Jrue Holiday14 hours ago

Won't Play Against Miami
New York Jets14 hours ago

Xavier Newman-Johnson Re-Signs With New York
Al Horford14 hours ago

Sidelined Versus Heat
Kristaps Porzingis14 hours ago

Ruled Out On Wednesday
Fred VanVleet15 hours ago

Out Versus Utah
Dean Wade15 hours ago

Sidelined On Wednesday
Trae Young15 hours ago

Expected To Suit Up On Wednesday
Joel Embiid15 hours ago

Will Undergo Arthroscopic Surgery On His Left Knee
Evgeni Malkin15 hours ago

Joins Penguins For Road Trip
Filip Chytil16 hours ago

Could Miss Rest Of Season
Declan Chisholm16 hours ago

Back In Action Against Rangers
Keaton Wallace16 hours ago

Sidelined Again On Wednesday
Samuel Girard16 hours ago

Exits Avalanche Lineup Wednesday
Joel Kiviranta16 hours ago

Returning Against Blackhawks
Eeli Tolvanen16 hours ago

Misses First Game Of The Season
Jaden Schwartz16 hours ago

Unavailable Against Canucks
18 hours ago

Kyle McCord Rising Up Draft Boards?
18 hours ago

Ashton Jeanty To Raiders Continues To Gain Steam
18 hours ago

Emeka Egbuka To Fall To Round 2?
Los Angeles Rams18 hours ago

Rob Havenstein Expected To Be Ready For Training Camp
Cleveland Browns20 hours ago

Mike Hall Likely To Miss Offseason Program After Having Knee Surgery
New England Patriots20 hours ago

Christian Barmore Expected To Be Ready For Offseason Workouts
20 hours ago

Saints Expected To Visit With Quinn Ewers
Jake Moody20 hours ago

49ers To Bring In Competition For Jake Moody
Pittsburgh Steelers20 hours ago

Steelers In Play To Draft A Running Back
Green Bay Packers22 hours ago

Packers Not Ruling Out Jaire Alexander Returning
Tennessee Titans22 hours ago

No. 1 Overall Pick Might Not Be For Sale
Kenny Pickett23 hours ago

Browns Feel Good About QB Situation, Kenny Pickett
Cleveland Browns23 hours ago

Browns Unlikely To Trade Up To No. 1 Overall For Cam Ward
Cincinnati Bengals23 hours ago

Bengals Still Working On Contract Extension With Trey Hendrickson
Dyami Brown23 hours ago

Jaguars Intrigued By Dyami Brown's Potential
Bennedict Mathurin24 hours ago

Iffy For Wednesday
Myles Turner1 day ago

May Miss Another Game Wednesday
Al Horford1 day ago

Considered Doubtful Wednesday
Jrue Holiday1 day ago

Questionable For Wednesday's Game
Kristaps Porzingis1 day ago

Listed As Questionable For Wednesday
Jaylen Brown1 day ago

Could Remain On The Shelf Wednesday
Cade Cunningham1 day ago

Likely Out For Fifth Straight Game
Evan Bouchard1 day ago

Tallies Two Assists In Victory
Jake Guentzel1 day ago

Tallies Goal, Assist In Victory
Kirill Marchenko1 day ago

Scores Hat Trick On Tuesday
Tage Thompson1 day ago

Stays Hot On The Scoresheet
Lane Hutson1 day ago

Dishes Out Three Helpers In Overtime Victory
Alex Ovechkin1 day ago

Tallies Two Points In Victory
Cameron Young1 day ago

A Player To Avoid At Valero Texas Open
Kurt Kitayama1 day ago

In Search Of Consistency At Valero Texas Open
Si Woo Kim1 day ago

Looking To Bounce Back At Valero Texas Open
Tom Hoge1 day ago

Looking To Build Off Strong Performance At The PLAYERS Championship
Matt Fitzpatrick2 days ago

Looking For Consistency At Valero Texas Open
Corey Conners2 days ago

Continues Strong Form Ahead Of Valero Texas Open
Patrick Cantlay2 days ago

Eyeing Victory At Valero Texas Open
Gary Woodland2 days ago

Showing Great Form Ahead Of Valero Texas Open
Akshay Bhatia2 days ago

Aiming For Repeat At Valero Texas Open
Alejandro Tosti2 days ago

A Volatile Choice At TPC San Antonio
Jimmy Snuggerud2 days ago

Ready For NHL Debut Tuesday
Jacob Trouba2 days ago

Set To Rejoin Ducks Lineup Tuesday
Jordan Spieth2 days ago

Needs To Find Consistency At TPC San Antonio
Jake Knapp2 days ago

Making First Appearance At Valero Texas Open
Michael Kim2 days ago

Looking To Find The Magic Again In San Antonio
Tommy Fleetwood2 days ago

Is Nearly A Must-Play At Valero Texas Open
Tony Finau2 days ago

Hoping For Better Approach Play In San Antonio
Eric Cole2 days ago

Trending In Right Direction Ahead Of Valero
Sam Stevens2 days ago

Enjoys Nice Result In Houston
PGA2 days ago

J.T. Poston Seeks To Contend At Valero Texas Open
Denny McCarthy3 days ago

Keeps Making Cuts But Needs To Make More Putts
Brian Harman3 days ago

Off To A Subpar 2025 So Far
Ryan Preece3 days ago

Has Three Straight Top-10 Finishes For First Time In His Career
NASCAR3 days ago

Bubba Wallace After Third-Place Finish At Martinsville: "What a Great Day"
Todd Gilliland3 days ago

Has Mistake-Free Day At Martinsville, Grabs Another Top-10 Finish
Brandon Moreno3 days ago

Wins Back-To-Back Fights
Steve Erceg3 days ago

Losses Third Consecutive Fight
Drew Dober3 days ago

Gets Knocked Out At UFC Mexico City
Manuel Torres3 days ago

Gets Back In The Win Column
Harry Hall3 days ago

Bounces Back In Houston Last Week
CJ Vergara3 days ago

Gets Submitted
Édgar Cháirez3 days ago

Edgar Chairez Gets Submission Win At UFC Mexico City
Vince Morales3 days ago

Drops Decision At UFC Mexico City
Raul Rosas Jr.3 days ago

Gets Decision Win At UFC Mexico City
Saimon Oliveira3 days ago

Still Winless In The UFC
David Martinez3 days ago

Wins His UFC Debut
Kevin Borjas3 days ago

Earns His First UFC Win
Ronaldo Rodríguez3 days ago

Ronaldo Rodriguez Suffers His First UFC Loss
Christopher Bell3 days ago

Powers His Way To A Second-Place Finish At Martinsville
Chase Elliott3 days ago

Strong Martinsville Performance Ends With A Top-Five Finish
Kyle Larson3 days ago

Collects A Top-Five Finish At Martinsville
William Byron3 days ago

Places 22nd After Struggles At Martinsville
Joey Logano3 days ago

Claims His First 2025 Top-10 Finish After Up-And-Down Performance
Tyler Reddick3 days ago

Fails To Place In The Top 10 At Martinsville
Denny Hamlin3 days ago

Silences Doubters After Crew-Chief Change
Ty Gibbs3 days ago

Earns Best 2025 Finish At Martinsville Despite Failing Cool Suit
Ross Chastain3 days ago

Has A Great Day At Martinsville
Chase Briscoe3 days ago

Has Solid Run At Martinsville
Erik Jones3 days ago

Disqualified At Martinsville For Weight Violation
Josh Berry4 days ago

Has Top-10 Upside At Martinsville
Joey Logano4 days ago

Don't Overlook Joey Logano This Weekend
Ryan Preece4 days ago

Could Get First Three-Race Top-10 Streak Of His Career
Chase Elliott4 days ago

Looking To Continue Great Runs At Martinsville
Christopher Bell4 days ago

Wins Pole At Martinsville, But Can He Stay Up There?
Ryan Blaney4 days ago

Fast In Practice But Skeptical About Car
Denny Hamlin4 days ago

New Crew Chief Has Terrible Martinsville Record
Steve Erceg6 days ago

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Brandon Moreno6 days ago

A Favorite At UFC Mexico City
Manuel Torres6 days ago

Set For Co-Main Event
Drew Dober6 days ago

An Underdog At UFC Mexico City
Joe Pyfer6 days ago

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Kelvin Gastelum6 days ago

Set For Middleweight Matchup
Vince Morales6 days ago

In Dire Need Of Victory
Raul Rosas Jr.6 days ago

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Saimon Oliveira6 days ago

Looks For His First UFC Win
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF

MORE RECENT ARTICLES

 
Russell Wilson - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL DFS Picks

Fantasy Football Outlooks For QBs On New Teams: Russell Wilson, Justin Fields, Sam Darnold, Geno Smith, more

The NFL quarterback carousel gets to spin every offseason, and plenty of QBs have already found new homes ahead of the 2025 NFL season. For fantasy football, a player's surrounding team is extremely important, so it's worth looking into each of their outlooks with their new squads. There are still a few unsigned QBs, but […]


Shedeur Sanders - College Football Rankings, NCAA CFB DFS Lineup Picks

2025 Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Mock Draft: 12-Team, Superflex/Two-QB

The 2025 NFL Draft is still less than 30 days away. Therefore, dynasty fantasy rookie mock drafts are nearly here. Much will change between now and the NFL Draft. However, it’s time for another dynasty rookie mock draft. This rookie mock draft is a two-round, 12-team, and two-quarterbacks.Be sure to check all of our fantasy […]


Deshaun Watson - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

2025 NFL Offseason Team Needs: Bengals, Browns, Ravens, Steelers

The AFC North, comprised of the Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns, and Pittsburgh Steelers, sent two teams to the playoffs in 2024 and had one on the cusp of a playoff berth. The Ravens have the best roster of the four teams by a long shot. The Steelers have a solid defensive group, and […]


UFL RANKINGS, FANTASY FOOTBALL,

UFL Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 2: QB, RB, WR, TE Rankings and Analysis (2025)

Week 2 of the UFL season is just around the corner. This week will feature one game on Friday, one game on Saturday, and two on Sunday. Birmingham and Michigan will play at 8:00 p.m. EDT on Friday, followed by Memphis-D.C. on Saturday at 8:00 p.m. EDT. Sunday's game pits the 1-0 Renegades against the […]


Calvin Ridley - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL DFS Picks, Draft Sleepers

Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings: Overvalued, Undervalued Players (2025)

Dynasty fantasy football rankings constantly shift, especially as we inch closer to the new season and fantasy drafts. Dynasty managers know the importance of finding those underrated players who could be steals in drafts or trades. They also know some players are overhyped due to unsustainable trends or past production. I'll break down two overvalued […]


Justin Fields - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Best Fantasy Football Moves During 2025 NFL Free Agency

It has been a wild offseason so far in the NFL. Plenty of players have switched teams in free agency, and some stars were even traded. Deebo Samuel Sr. was dealt to the Washington Commanders, Geno Smith was traded to the Las Vegas Raiders, and DK Metcalf has a new home with the Pittsburgh Steelers. These […]


Tyreek Hill - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

Three Aging Fantasy Football Players To Sell In Dynasty Leagues

It's hard to always know when to sell off your aging fantasy football players. Often, it's also difficult to accept that it's better to move on from a player when he's coming off a productive season and still has a lot left in the tank. But I believe it's better to be a year early […]


J.J. McCarthy - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Draft Sleepers

Five Fantasy Football Superflex Quarterback Breakouts, Draft Targets (2025)

If you’ve ever played in a Superflex fantasy football league, then you know how important quarterbacks are in this format. The ability to start multiple stud quarterbacks can carry you to a Superflex title. Unfortunately, finding two such players isn’t so easy. All the top signal-callers come off draft boards first, and that makes it […]


Omarion Hampton - College Football Rankings, NCAA CFB DFS Lineup Picks - NFL Draft

Ideal Landing Spots For The Top 12 Fantasy Football Rookies - 2025 NFL Draft

Then, the NFL Draft continues to inch closer and closer. This is a very interesting class, with a handful of players who could be stars in the NFL and reshape fantasy football leagues going forward. Here are the ideal landing spots for the top 12 fantasy football rookies. These picks exist in conversation with each […]


Jalen Coker - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

Eight Best Ball Late Round Value Fantasy Football Players To Target For 2025

Fantasy football is the most popular game in all of sports. It has gone from a paper-and-pen game to a multi-million dollar-a-year one. While redraft leagues are the most popular form of fantasy football, best ball leagues are quickly gaining steam. The best part of best ball leagues is the ability to draft thousands of […]


Abdul Carter - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

2025 NFL Draft Rankings: Top 10 Fantasy Football Edge Rusher Prospects

Edge rusher is the most important, most coveted, and most highly-paid position on defense in the NFL. It stands to reason that the most important position in the entire game being quarterback, and by a wide margin, means the most important position on defense are the players that are tasked with disrupting opposing QBs as […]


Brock Purdy - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Picks

Brock Purdy Dynasty Fantasy Football Outlook and Trade Value

Despite becoming the all-time leading passer for the Iowa State Cyclones, Brock Purdy wasn't a highly touted prospect due to his perceived lack of athleticism. The 49ers picked him with the final pick of the 2022 NFL Draft, but Mr. Irrelevant quickly proved everyone wrong. In his first two years, he started in back-to-back NFC […]


Michael Florio's Football Show - Podcast RotoBaller Network

Florio's Football Show: Scouting NFL Draft Prospects!

Michael F Florio goes over some of the top prospects from this years NFL Draft. Florio talks about what he looks for when watching prospect tape and explains what traits translate best to the NFL level. Be sure to also tune into RotoBaller Radio on SiriusXM (SiriusXM channel 87) on Sundays from 6-7 am. You can […]