Fact or Fiction? Testing Zero RB Draft Strategy Using "Teams In A Vacuum" Concept

Glenn analyzes the Zero RB fantasy football draft strategy using the "Teams in a Vacuum" (TIAV) concept. Should you grab an RB later? Does draft position matter?

There are basic rules to fantasy football drafting -- “Draft a running back first,” “Don’t draft a quarterback until after the third round,” “Balance your roster,” “Only draft players from your favorite team because those guys are winners,” etc. But what if you are a contrarian? What if you embrace the randomness of fantasy football and believe the risk of injury to running backs (RBs) is higher than the other positions?

Zero RB is a fantasy football draft strategy for those that like to challenge the norm. This strategy is based on the fact that the elite RBs will be drafted early, so if you have a later draft position, hold off on drafting your first RB until at least the fourth round. In the early rounds, you draft some combination of wide receivers (WRs), a quarterback (QB), and a tight end (TE).

Built into the Zero RB strategy is the idea that due to the high number of injuries at running back, the lower-ranked RBs will move up as the season progresses. Obviously, there are believers in the Zero RB strategy, but is it supported mathematically?

Can You Wait To Draft Your First RB In Fantasy Football Drafts?

This article will analyze the Zero RB draft strategy using Teams In A Vacuum. TIAV uses the FantasyPros draft rankings from the past 12 years to snake-draft teams and tabulates each player’s fantasy points to figure out which team is the winner. Since the Zero RB strategy only makes sense if you do not have access to the elite RBs, the computer will use the lowest draft position in each league (Team 10 in a 10-team league, Team 12 in a 12-team league, etc.) to draft the best non-RB available.

Snake draft is always assumed, which means the lowest draft position gets two consecutive picks. In addition, this team will be restricted from being able to draft an RB for the first three rounds. On top of the lowest draft team being a Zero RB team (because there are more WRs that score points), other Zero RB teams will occur “naturally.”

Since archived data is limited to 300 players, TIAV is comprised of seven players -- two RBs, two WRs, one QB, one TE, and one FLEX (RB, WR, or TE).

Table 1 - 2022 Zero RB Teams for 12-Team Leagues

Because the Zero RB strategy is based upon later-round RBs catching up with early-round RBs over the course of the season, it would be interesting to see if Zero RB worked in larger leagues. Consequently, Zero RB teams were drafted in three league sizes -- 10, 12, and 16 teams.

Table 2 - 2022 Zero RB Teams for 16-Team Leagues

After drafting 456 teams in 36 leagues, the Zero RB draft strategy slightly outperforms the standard draft RB-First strategy. Even without counting the naturally occurring Zero RB teams that score the most points in a given year, finding the best WRs or WR/TE combination at the end of the first round/the beginning of the second round appears to be a better strategy if you have the lowest draft position.

Table 3 – Zero RB Winners from 2011 to 2022

Table 4 shows that the Zero RB team won the 2022 PPR league because many players maintained or exceeded their predicted draft ranks. First and second-round picks -- Travis Kelce and Stefon Diggs -- maintained their predicted outcomes while sixth and seventh-round picks -- Jalen Hurts and Tony Pollard -- exceeded theirs.

This team is an excellent example of the Zero RB concept -- later-round RBs can catch up to early-round RBs over the course of the season. Tony Pollard started the season ranked as the 29^th RB and finished eighth, which was a difference of 200 fantasy points. He was the primary reason this team won the league.

Table 4 – 2022 12-Team PPR Winner / Zero RB Team

If Zero RB is the best draft strategy, what about “Running backs have the highest distribution of points so you have to draft them first?” TIAV is not proving that Zero RB is better than RB-First in all cases. TIAV is proving that for the team with the lowest draft position, drafting the best TE/WR or WR/WR combination is a better strategy for “the wrap-around picks” than drafting second-tier RBs. Drafting a top-tier RB is the best strategy for high-draft positions.

An interesting footnote was uncovered in the standard deviation calculations. The standard deviation represents the distance from the mean (average). In fantasy football terms, the position with the highest standard deviation should be drafted first.

In 16-team standard leagues, QBs have a higher standard deviation than RBs. This suggests a “QB-First” strategy is recommended for standard leagues of 16 teams or higher. In terms of Zero RB, the combination of QB/WR is advised for the wrap-around picks in large leagues.

Table 5 – 2011-2022 Standard Deviation Averages

How Often Do Late-Round Fantasy Football RBs Have The Highest Point Totals?

We saw the overachieving Tony Pollard win the 2022 12-Team PPR League on a Zero-RB team. But are there ever RBs drafted after the first three rounds that finish RB1 for a season? TIAV uses the FantasyPros draft rankings, which are a weighted average from up to 130 different sources.

As seen in Table 6, RB1 has only been drafted after the first three rounds three times in the past 12 years. For all intents and purposes, the best RB will be drafted in the first two rounds. However, Table 6 does not indicate abandoning Zero RB for the lowest draft position. If you draft an RB at the bottom of the first round, there is only a 12.5% probability of that RB finishing number one.

Table 6 – 2012-2022 Overall Draft Pick Of Best Running Back And Best Wide Receiver

Table 6 also shows that the FantasyPros rankings are slightly more accurate for WRs than for RBs. Even the WR outliers are more in-line. For RBs, the expectation is the best RB is drafted first. For WRs, the expectation is the best WR is drafted sixth in standard leagues and fourth in PPR leagues.

Over the past 12 years, the lowest draft position range has produced the best WR 25% of the time. Furthermore, drafting WRs instead of RBs with the wrap-around picks produces a more predictable outcome, especially in PPR leagues.

In conclusion, TIAV shows that the Zero RB draft strategy has a slightly higher chance of winning than drafting a second-tier RB. In 10-team and 12-team leagues, the combination of WR/WR or WR/TE are the advised picks for the lowest draft position.

In 16-team or larger leagues, the combination of QB/WR is advised. Although you will not find an RB1 with your later-round RB picks, you will find an overachiever that puts your team over the top with some luck. Be proud of those wrap-around picks with the contrarian’s Zero RB draft strategy!

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