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Fact or Fiction? Testing Zero RB Draft Strategy Using "Teams In A Vacuum" Concept

Christian McCaffrey - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

Glenn analyzes the Zero RB fantasy football draft strategy using the "Teams in a Vacuum" (TIAV) concept. Should you grab an RB later? Does draft position matter?

There are basic rules to fantasy football drafting -- “Draft a running back first,” “Don’t draft a quarterback until after the third round,” “Balance your roster,” “Only draft players from your favorite team because those guys are winners,” etc. But what if you are a contrarian? What if you embrace the randomness of fantasy football and believe the risk of injury to running backs (RBs) is higher than the other positions?

Zero RB is a fantasy football draft strategy for those that like to challenge the norm. This strategy is based on the fact that the elite RBs will be drafted early, so if you have a later draft position, hold off on drafting your first RB until at least the fourth round. In the early rounds, you draft some combination of wide receivers (WRs), a quarterback (QB), and a tight end (TE).

Built into the Zero RB strategy is the idea that due to the high number of injuries at running back, the lower-ranked RBs will move up as the season progresses. Obviously, there are believers in the Zero RB strategy, but is it supported mathematically?

Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2025:

 

Can You Wait To Draft Your First RB In Fantasy Football Drafts?

This article will analyze the Zero RB draft strategy using Teams In A Vacuum. TIAV uses the FantasyPros draft rankings from the past 12 years to snake-draft teams and tabulates each player’s fantasy points to figure out which team is the winner. Since the Zero RB strategy only makes sense if you do not have access to the elite RBs, the computer will use the lowest draft position in each league (Team 10 in a 10-team league, Team 12 in a 12-team league, etc.) to draft the best non-RB available.

Snake draft is always assumed, which means the lowest draft position gets two consecutive picks. In addition, this team will be restricted from being able to draft an RB for the first three rounds. On top of the lowest draft team being a Zero RB team (because there are more WRs that score points), other Zero RB teams will occur “naturally.”

Since archived data is limited to 300 players, TIAV is comprised of seven players -- two RBs, two WRs, one QB, one TE, and one FLEX (RB, WR, or TE).

Standard League Scoring Point-Per-Reception League Scoring
Draft  Rank Player Name Fan Points Final Pos Rank Draft Rank Player Name Fan Points Final Pos Rank
12 Ja'Marr Chase 155 WR12 12 Travis Kelce 316 TE1
14 Travis Kelce 206 TE1 13 Stefon Diggs 316 WR4
36 Mike Williams 113 WR29 36 Diontae Johnson 172 WR34
37 Terry McLaurin 152 WR14 - FLX 37 Courtland Sutton 159 WR41 -FLX
59 J.K. Dobbins 74 RB44 63 Antonio Gibson 165 RB27
61 Jalen Hurts 378 QB3 64 Jalen Hurts 378 QB3
77 Clyde Edwards-Helaire 81 RB42 72 Tony Pollard 248 RB8
Team 12 Total 1159 Team 12 Total 1754
Winning Team 1363 Winning Team 1754

Table 1 - 2022 Zero RB Teams for 12-Team Leagues

Because the Zero RB strategy is based upon later-round RBs catching up with early-round RBs over the course of the season, it would be interesting to see if Zero RB worked in larger leagues. Consequently, Zero RB teams were drafted in three league sizes -- 10, 12, and 16 teams.

Standard League Scoring Point-Per-Reception League Scoring
Draft Rank Player Name Fan Points Final Pos Rank Draft Rank Player Name Fan Points Final Pos Rank
16 Mark Andrews 117 TE5 18 CeeDee Lamb 301 WR5
17 Stefon Diggs 208 WR5 19 Mark Andrews 190 TE4
48 Allen Robinson 52 WR50 48 Lamar Jackson 236 QB14
49 George Kittle 140 TE2 - FLX 51 DK Metcalf 226 WR16
81 Miles Sanders 196 RB10 79 Dallas Goedert 141 TE11 - FLX
82 Russell Wilson 224 QB16 80 Rashaad Penny 52 RB50
107 Darrell Henderson 0 RB+ 101 Nyheim Hines 69 RB49
Team 16 Total 937 Team 16 Total 1215
Winning Total 1389 Winning Total 1536

Table 2 - 2022 Zero RB Teams for 16-Team Leagues

After drafting 456 teams in 36 leagues, the Zero RB draft strategy slightly outperforms the standard draft RB-First strategy. Even without counting the naturally occurring Zero RB teams that score the most points in a given year, finding the best WRs or WR/TE combination at the end of the first round/the beginning of the second round appears to be a better strategy if you have the lowest draft position.

League Type Number Of Teams Expected Number Of Wins Over 12-Years Last Team/Intentional Zero RB Winners Other Teams
Zero RB Winners
Standard 10 1.20 1 0
12 1.00 2 0
16 0.75 2 1
Point-Per-Reception 10 1.20 2 1
12 1.00 1 2
16 0.75 0 0
Total 0.98 1.33

Table 3 – Zero RB Winners from 2011 to 2022

Table 4 shows that the Zero RB team won the 2022 PPR league because many players maintained or exceeded their predicted draft ranks. First and second-round picks -- Travis Kelce and Stefon Diggs -- maintained their predicted outcomes while sixth and seventh-round picks -- Jalen Hurts and Tony Pollard -- exceeded theirs.

This team is an excellent example of the Zero RB concept -- later-round RBs can catch up to early-round RBs over the course of the season. Tony Pollard started the season ranked as the 29th RB and finished eighth, which was a difference of 200 fantasy points. He was the primary reason this team won the league.

Draft Rank Final Rank Player Name Fan Points Draft Pos Rank Final Pos Rank
12 12 Travis Kelce 316 TE1 TE1
13 11 Stefon Diggs 316 WR4 WR4
36 89 Diontae Johnson 172 WR15 WR34
37 111 Courtland Sutton 159 WR16 WR41
63 99 Antonio Gibson 165 RB25 RB27
64 3 Jalen Hurts 378 QB5 QB3
72 30 Tony Pollard 248 RB29 RB8

Table 4 – 2022 12-Team PPR Winner / Zero RB Team

If Zero RB is the best draft strategy, what about “Running backs have the highest distribution of points so you have to draft them first?” TIAV is not proving that Zero RB is better than RB-First in all cases. TIAV is proving that for the team with the lowest draft position, drafting the best TE/WR or WR/WR combination is a better strategy for “the wrap-around picks” than drafting second-tier RBs. Drafting a top-tier RB is the best strategy for high-draft positions.

An interesting footnote was uncovered in the standard deviation calculations. The standard deviation represents the distance from the mean (average). In fantasy football terms, the position with the highest standard deviation should be drafted first.

In 16-team standard leagues, QBs have a higher standard deviation than RBs. This suggests a “QB-First” strategy is recommended for standard leagues of 16 teams or higher. In terms of Zero RB, the combination of QB/WR is advised for the wrap-around picks in large leagues.

10-Team Leagues
10-Year Avg Standard Deviation
12-Team Leagues
10-Year Avg Standard Deviation
16-Team Leagues
10-Year Avg Standard Deviation
Standard Scoring
1 QB 34 36 78
2 RBs 44 46 70
2 WRs 29 31 53
1 TE 28 30 43
Point-Per-Reception Scoring
1 QB 34 36 78
2 RBs 55 56 86
2 WRs 40 43 77
1 TE 38 39 64

Table 5 – 2011-2022 Standard Deviation Averages

 

How Often Do Late-Round Fantasy Football RBs Have The Highest Point Totals?

We saw the overachieving Tony Pollard win the 2022 12-Team PPR League on a Zero-RB team. But are there ever RBs drafted after the first three rounds that finish RB1 for a season? TIAV uses the FantasyPros draft rankings, which are a weighted average from up to 130 different sources.

As seen in Table 6, RB1 has only been drafted after the first three rounds three times in the past 12 years. For all intents and purposes, the best RB will be drafted in the first two rounds. However, Table 6 does not indicate abandoning Zero RB for the lowest draft position. If you draft an RB at the bottom of the first round, there is only a 12.5% probability of that RB finishing number one.

Running Backs Wide Receivers
Year Standard Point-Per-Reception Standard Point-Per-Reception
2011 5 4 16 11
2012 27 35 4 4
2013 3 3 81 - Josh Gordon 16
2014 11 23 21 17
2015 103 - Devonta Freeman 97- Devonta Freeman 6 4
2016 5 4 14 1
2017 16 20 27 3
2018 1 8 26 6
2019 3 2 19 10
2020 4 4 12 7
2021 8 15 45 - Cooper Kupp 37 - Cooper Kupp
2022 57 - Josh Jacobs 2 8 5
Average Pick 20 18 23 10

Table 6 – 2012-2022 Overall Draft Pick Of Best Running Back And Best Wide Receiver

Table 6 also shows that the FantasyPros rankings are slightly more accurate for WRs than for RBs. Even the WR outliers are more in-line. For RBs, the expectation is the best RB is drafted first. For WRs, the expectation is the best WR is drafted sixth in standard leagues and fourth in PPR leagues.

Over the past 12 years, the lowest draft position range has produced the best WR 25% of the time. Furthermore, drafting WRs instead of RBs with the wrap-around picks produces a more predictable outcome, especially in PPR leagues.

In conclusion, TIAV shows that the Zero RB draft strategy has a slightly higher chance of winning than drafting a second-tier RB. In 10-team and 12-team leagues, the combination of WR/WR or WR/TE are the advised picks for the lowest draft position.

In 16-team or larger leagues, the combination of QB/WR is advised. Although you will not find an RB1 with your later-round RB picks, you will find an overachiever that puts your team over the top with some luck. Be proud of those wrap-around picks with the contrarian’s Zero RB draft strategy!



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