Evaluating Ambiguous Fantasy Football Backfields (2024) - Part III

Rob's final entry where he takes an in-depth look at six ambiguous fantasy football backfields and the ADP of each running back to determine the best targets.

This is the third and final entry in a series about ambiguous backfields and how fantasy football managers should value and target these respective running backs this season. In the first two series, the ambiguous backfields of the Denver Broncos, Dallas Cowboys, Tennessee Titans, and Cincinnati Bengals were evaluated, and a preferred fantasy football target was identified from the running-back depth chart. We'll do the same for this final series for the Los Angeles Chargers and Washington Commanders' backfields.

Each ambiguous backfield is different. The Washington backfield has two players set to play considerable snaps whose talents do not overlap; they perfectly complement each other, making it easy to project how the touches will be dispersed. It doesn't mean we know exactly who the better fantasy bet is because touchdowns can be fickle, but they are much easier to predict. The Chargers' backfield, however, is a completely different situation entirely. It's a group of misfit running backs. No outcome should be surprising.

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Los Angeles Chargers

Gus Edwards: RB36, ADP 116 vs. J.K. Dobbins: RB52, ADP 170 vs. Kimani Vidal: RB71, ADP 216

It's almost impossible to know how the Chargers offense will look in 2024. We know they won't pass as much as they have in the past few seasons. That much is a guarantee. With the additions of Jim Harbaugh as head coach and Greg Roman as his offensive coordinator, it's clear the Chargers will emphasize the running game more. However, when we look back at those San Francisco offenses when Harbaugh and Roman were in their same respective roles, we must remember that they had Colin Kaepernick at quarterback, not Justin Herbert. It was also over 10 years ago, and NFL offenses have become more pass-heavy in recent seasons.

Last year, the Chargers averaged 25 rushing attempts per game, 24th in the NFL. That number should increase to 28-30 with the coaching and personnel changes. While their rushing attempts should increase, the running-back target share should decrease significantly. That's due to several reasons. First and foremost, they do not seem to employ any running back with the talent level that justifies a steady flow of targets. Secondly, the team's passing volume will decrease, negatively affecting the running back's overall target numbers.

At this stage of Gus Edwards' career, we know exactly who he is. He's a dependable and consistent runner who offers next to nothing in the passing game. In five seasons, Edwards has finished with a 5.0 or higher yards per carry and boasts a 4.9 career mark. He's recorded a rush success rate of over 59% in three seasons. He has consistently churned out yards after contact, but his snap share has only once been higher than 39% due to his inefficiency catching the ball. He has just 30 receptions in five seasons and has never had 15 targets.

He'll be expected to be the early-down grinder in Week 1. This is largely because he's not coming off a serious injury and he's not a rookie. Securing that role is somewhat due to default, but there's no guarantee he'll keep that spot. Even if he does, his lack of passing work significantly limits his ceiling.

Dobbins is an enigma, the classic case of "What might have been?" He tore his ACL, LCL, and hamstring meniscus in 2021. In 2023, he tore his Achilles. One of those injuries is enough to ruin or end a running back's career. As a rookie, he had 925 scrimmage yards on just 152 touches. He was incredibly efficient, averaging 6.1 yards per touch and 6.0 yards per carry.

In 2022, after missing the first two weeks of the season still recovering from that brutal knee injury, Dobbins finished with 562 scrimmage yards on 99 touches, again displaying elite efficiency and averaging 5.7 yards per touch. He only played eight games that season as he had to undergo a second knee surgery later in the season to remove scar tissue.

Like Edwards, Dobbins has been a virtual no-show in the passing game. He's averaged 1.46 targets per game, equating to just under 25 over 17 games. You could argue Dobbins is the most naturally talented back on the roster. The question is, is the talent still there due to his significant injuries?

“It was like a walk in the park, it was like a sprained ankle”

- JK Dobbins on recovery from his Achilles injury via @NFL pic.twitter.com/1v62X5ojJn

— SleeperNFL (@SleeperNFL) May 1, 2024

Vidal is a sixth-round rookie out of Troy. He did, however, have the second-most rushing yards in the country last season. Among 80 running backs with at least 140 carries, Vidal ranked 27th in yards per carry, third in PFF rushing grade, 31st in yards after contact per attempt, second in broken tackles, first in carries to gain 10+ yards, and second in first downs.

Over his final two seasons at Troy, Vidal had 2,788 yards on 526 carries, averaging 5.3 yards per carry and scoring 24 touchdowns. Over four collegiate seasons, he had 112 targets, 91 receptions, and 693 receiving yards. He posted a 31.5% dominator rating, 73rd percentile. It's fair to question the level of competition he faced, but Vidal was incredibly efficient in college.

Kimani Vidal was drafted in round 6 pick 181 in the 2024 draft class. He scored a 8.88 #RAS out of a possible 10.00. This ranked 214 out of 1903 RB from 1987 to 2024. https://t.co/oZQHR0RZFU pic.twitter.com/kAxhe3PIeR

— Kent Lee Platte (@MathBomb) April 27, 2024

Vidal has some juice, which makes for an interesting dart throw. If we project around 25-26 rush attempts for the Chargers running backs, we have around 430 attempts. The target share dedicated to running backs has hovered around 18%, but this trio is unlikely to command that volume. If we project 33.5 pass attempts per game, which would put the Chargers around 20th and give the running backs a 15% target share, they'd have around 85 targets. Edwards has never had more than 200 carries in a season, so it takes some projection to get to that level.

The Winner: Kimani Vidal

We should expect Edwards to handle around 210-240 carries, depending on Dobbins' health and Vidal's progression. However, we shouldn't expect more than 15 receptions; it's not something Edwards has shown any capacity for. This would likely give Edwards around 1,100 scrimmage yards with 6-8 touchdowns. That gives him roughly a projected 9.4 half-PPR PPG average. That would've been around RB33 last season. That doesn't give fantasy managers much leeway for a positive return on their investment. The projection is based on Edwards handling 225 carries, something he's never done, and 15 receptions, another thing he's never done. Betting on Dobbins following his significant injuries seems like a poor investment.

However, Vidal is the unknown. We know who Edwards is. We know who Dobbins is. We do not know who Vidal is; that uncertainty is the appeal. The price certainly doesn't hurt, either; he's completely free.

Based on his efficiency in college and the lack of talent above him, give him a decent shot at being fantasy-relevant. Even if Vidal becomes the preferred pass-catching back due to Edwards' inability and Dobbins' injury history, he has a good chance of solidly outplaying his ADP. If he can carve out 30% of the rushing work, he'll provide a strong positive return on investment. There's also the chance that this new general manager and coaching staff will eventually say, "Edwards and Dobbins aren't the future; let's give Vidal a shot."

Edwards, at best, is likely nothing more than a touchdown-dependent RB3. He's being drafted as an RB3. Dobbins' injury history should have anyone extremely hesitant. Vidal seems like the best bet.

Washington Commanders

Brian Robinson Jr.: RB33, ADP 110 vs. Austin Ekeler: RB35, ADP 115

This backfield is much simpler to project. Robinson is a 230-pounder, while Ekeler is an older, 200-pound pass-catching specialist. Ekeler has shown the ability to run the football, but given his size and age, it makes sense that the team would utilize him differently than the Chargers did.

Fantasy managers should expect Robinson to handle the early-down work while Ekeler handles the pass-catching duties, the third-down work, and the two-minute drill. The biggest question is who gets the scoring opportunities. Ekeler scored 25 rushing touchdowns from 2021-2022, proving he had a nose for the end zone. His pass-catching ability was also a positive near the goal line because the defense had to anticipate both play calls by having him on the field. Who Kliff Kingsbury uses nearing the goal line will determine which one of these backs becomes the best option in this ambiguous backfield.

Over Kingsbury's four years in Arizona with Kyler Murray as quarterback, a quarterback similar to Jayden Daniels to some extent, they averaged 333 running-back carries and 108 running-back targets a season. The running-back carries ranged from 298 to 361, while the running-back targets ranged from 103 to 111.

This gives fantasy managers a decent projection of what to expect from this group volume-wise in 2024. Below is a table detailing the efficiency of both players from the 2023 season. You'll see that Robinson was the far more effective and efficient player. It should be noted that Ekeler dealt with a high-ankle sprain.

Fantasy managers should expect Robinson to handle more rushing work while Ekeler handles most of the passing work. Robinson should be expected to have around 55% of the rushing work and 35% of the receiving work. Conversely, Ekeler should be expected to have around 35% of the rushing work and 55% of the receiving work.

Based on Kingsbury's four-year averages, Robinson would finish with around 185 carries and 38 targets. Ekeler would have around 117 carries and 60 targets. Robinson would finish with around 1,000 scrimmage yards and 28 receptions. Ekeler would finish with around 800 scrimmage yards and 45 receptions.

That would give Robinson a 6.7 half-PPR PPG average and Ekeler a 6.0 half-PPR PPG average. This is close enough that everything would come down to who gets the touchdowns. Given Ekeler's elite production from 2021-2022, it's also possible that the Washington staff could try to tap into that and give Ekeler more volume.

The Winner: Why Not Both?

Ekeler's 2023 season was bad compared to his 2021 and 2022 seasons; however, when you compare it to Robinson's 2023 season, the differences aren't all that significant. Yes, Robinson performed better in most categories, but they were close. Given Ekeler's high-ankle sprain injury, some of his inefficiency could be attributed to that.

Ekeler is the much better bet for more passing volume, and the projections above could easily be selling Ekeler short in that department. Ekeler was one of the better goal-line running backs from 2021 to 2022, and his dual-threat ability could handle more of the goal-line work than we'd typically expect, given the size differential between both players.

Still, given just how close their ADPs are and that Robinson is the younger and more productive player from 2023, fantasy managers shouldn't be hesitant to bet on Robinson in his backfield. His size gives him a logical advantage near the goal line, and if he can secure that role, Robinson would easily outpace Ekeler.

Robinson has been a quality player since his rookie season and showed an improved skill set in the passing game, finishing with 36 receptions and 14th in receiving yards among running backs. Given Ekeler's age, injury-plagued season in 2023, and general lack of efficiency, he is on the downward slope of his career.

If that doesn't happen gradually -- and it doesn't all the time with running backs -- Robinson could end up with a bigger workload than projected. In the end, fantasy managers shouldn't be afraid to take shots at both of these players. The Washington offense, with No. 2 overall pick Jayden Daniels, could also surprise this season, giving whoever winds up with the goal-line work more scoring opportunities.

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