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Eric Samulski continues RotoBaller's Bold Predictions series with 10 outside-the-box calls for the 2021 fantasy baseball season.
It's bold prediction time! Everybody's favorite time of year. Last year I put out my bold prediction article, and it was a doozy. Obviously, publishing it before the shutdown which delayed the MLB season impacted some of the claims, but, actually, no, I'll just blame everything on that.
Anyways, I'm back again to plant my flags in players I like and those I'm avoiding. For me, the bold prediction article is merely a chance to discuss players that I think are being over or under-valued. I put a lot of thought into the analysis, so I encourage you to take that into more consideration than the actual ranking or statement of the prediction.
As is the case every year, bold prediction articles are meant to be fun. Don't drastically alter your draft strategy with our bold calls in mind (unless it's drafting Lucas Sims in every draft). Hopefully, this article will enlighten you as to why I'm "in" or "out" on certain players and add to your own analysis.
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Randy Arozarena finishes outside the Top-30 OF
Let's start it off with a bang and discuss a pre-season darling. After an impossible hot streak in last year's playoffs, Arozarena is currently the 15th outfielder off the board according to NFBC ADP. As a result, I have zero shares of him. It's not that I don't like him as a player, it's just that I think we're vastly over-emphasizing a small sample size in his current draft cost. During his minor league career, Arozarena showed a good feel for the strike zone and solid bat-to-ball skills. He always hit for a relatively high average and, generally, kept his K% below 20%. I believe that part of his game is real and a .270 average is not out of the question. I think he'll also steal some bags; however, I would expect more in the 15 range as opposed to the 20+ that some projection systems have him down for.
The area where I differ most from projections for Arozarena is power production. This is a player who never hit more than 16 HRs in a minor league season, and now we are projecting him for 26 long balls. I understand that there is often growth in power when players jump to the majors, but Arozarena's underlying numbers from last year don't support his power jump. For starters, he had a .496 xSLG, as opposed to a .641 SLG and a staggering 46.7% HR/FB ratio. If you look at Alex Chamberlain's pitch leaderboard, you also see that Arozarena had a 14% barrel rate and 44.2% Hard Hit% but only a 9.6% deserved barrel rate and a 20.9% Deserved Hard Hit%. Let's keep going, his exit velocity sits at an impressive 90.3 mph, but when you look at the exit velocity on just line drives and fly balls, it drops to a more average 87.5 mph. When you add in that the MLB will be using a deadened ball this year, I don't see how we can project him for this much power.
Lastly, I think pitchers will be able to spot some weaknesses in Arozarena's approach in a full season. In 2020, he hit .154 (.158 xBA) against breaking balls with a .185 xSLG and exit velocity of 79.8 mph. Yet, even towards the end of the season, pitchers were still attacking him with more fastballs and didn't really up the breaking ball usage.
In the games where the percentage of breaking balls he saw was even close to the percentage of fastballs, he hit .200. Now, I know it's a small sample size, but so were the playoffs. In the games from September 10th (peak breaking ball usage above) to the end of the regular season, Arozarena was 0-19 in the games where the breaking ball usage from opposing pitchers was close to the fastball usage. With a year of tape on Arozarena, I expect pitchers to adjust their approach accordingly and make Arozarena prove he can hit the breaking ball.
All in all, I see a player who can hit .270 with 17 HR and 15 SB with maybe 75 RBI and 75 runs in a strong lineup. That's essentially Corey Dickerson with steals or the projections for Nick Senzel with a little bit more batting average. That's not a bad player, but I don't expect him to hit his draft-day value.
Jarren Duran is the second-best rookie OF in fantasy
I wrote about Duran when I looked at outfield prospects who were flying under the radar. After his Spring Training, I'm not so sure he's flying under the radar anymore. This spring, Duran hit .324/.361/.647 with 2 HR and a SB in 36 plate appearances. He showed off the swing change he made last year, which unlocked a new level of power for the Red Sox prospect.
Duran will not be up to start the season, but the Red Sox are not going to be competing for a World Series this year, and they have room for Duran in the outfield if Franchy Cordero or Hunter Renfroe prove better suited to be a platoon with one another. That would allow the Red Sox to move Verdugo to corner outfield and play Duran in centerfield. I very much expect this to happen early in the summer, especially after Duran proved he belongs.
Speed has always been an asset for him, with 24 SBs during his first professional season in 2018 and 46 SBs in 2019, which will give him immediate value in fantasy leagues. If Duran is given three-plus months of run time in the majors, I think you could see him hit 12 HRs and steal 15+ bases while hitting .260-.270. I believe that will make him more valuable at the end of the year than any rookie outfielder not named Jarred Kelenic.
Chris Paddack finishes as a top-15 starting pitcher
As a result of the Padres trading for, what seemed like, every elite starting pitcher this offseason, we seem to have forgotten about Chris Paddack. The 25-year-old, who was a darling after his strong rookie season in 2018, is currently being drafted as the 29th starting pitcher, oftentimes just outside the top-100 overall picks.
Despite his elite changeup, the biggest knock on Paddack is that his fastball gets rocked, which is a valid concern. The pitch was hit to the tune of a .308 xBA and .596 xSLG in 2020. However, our valuations of Paddack seem to forget that he's still a young pitcher and is more than capable of making adjustments. Which he did this offseason. In particular, Paddack specifically understood the flaws in his fastball and went back to footage from previous years and noticed that the spin rate and effectiveness of his fastball were impacted by "the position of his front shoulder and where he would release the ball."
If you listen to Paddack, he actually goes even deeper into his analysis of his weakness with the fastball.
The fact that a young pitcher is beginning to notice his own areas of weakness and improve upon them is of crucial importance. Paddack has already seen success this spring thanks to the improved fastball, and I believe that he could easily break out this year with a strong fastball-changeup combo and an improved curve as a strike-getting pitch. Plus, he said that he also learned to "eat like an adult" this offseason, so expect to see the cowboy take out his frustration about eating kale and cauliflower on opposing hitters.
Trevor Bauer finishes outside the top-15 starting pitchers
Trevor Bauer was phenomenal last year. He was also dominant in his All-Star 2018 season. That's 248 innings of brilliance. He also has 908 innings as a mid 4.00 ERA pitcher with a strikeout rate around 20%. Yes, Bauer did make changes in 2020, abandoning his change-up and going to the cutter as his second offering rather than the curveball, but how can we be so sure those changes will stick? Bauer has a history of tinkering, perhaps over tinkering, with his repertoire. I mean, the dude is even experimenting with throwing with one eye closed just because.
However, antics aside, there are some concerns underneath the surface. Bauer's four-seam was a strong pitch for him last year, with a 38.4% strikeout rate; yet, it overperformed its deserved metrics with a 31% deserved K% (still strong) but a 17.2% deserved barrel rate despite an 8.8% actual barrel rate. Similarly, his cutter, which he used increasingly as the year went on gave up zero barrels but had an 11.3% deserved barrel rate. What this tells me is that Bauer had a strong year, and clearly possesses swing-and-miss stuff, but was getting hit harder than his results indicate. A big part of that is the final reason I'm predicting regression for Bauer.
Bauer's 2020 was massively impacted by his strength of schedule. Playing in Cincinnati, he had a central-heavy schedule that included: Detroit twice, Milwaukee three times, Pittsburgh twice, Chicago Cubs twice, Chicago White Sox once, and Kansas City once. If you sort by wRC+ as a team, only the Chicago White Sox ranked inside the top-2o offenses. That means only one of Bauer's 11 starts came against a top-20 offense last year. Considering last year also happened to be the best he's looked in his career, it would be foolish to assume that's just a coincidence. Bauer will now play a full schedule that includes a fair share of games against the Padres and games in Coors as well. With a few bad starts, Bauer might start tinkering, as he has in the past, and the whole thing could unravel.
(If you want even another reason, the MLB announced as this was being submitted that they will be using Statcast data to track pitchers who are using substances. Bauer was the most obvious culprit last year and it had a big influence on his success, so maybe that's just another reason to avoid the highly-paid Dodger).
Jose Alvarado ends up with the second-most saves... in the NL East
Jose Alvarado is the best relief pitcher on his team. Yes, Hector Neris is throwing a slider now, but is that going to help his 12.6% walk rate? I'm not anti-Neris; in fact, I think he's better than Archie Bradley, who has always seemed better in a multi-inning role. Even as the Diamondbacks' closer last year, Bradley had a 24.7% strikeout rate. Among 345 pitchers with 50 batted balls allowed last year, Bradley ranked 290th with 6.8% barrels per plate appearance. He also allowed an exit velocity of 94.3 mph on fly balls and line drives, which was 288th out of the same 345 pitchers.
Then, on the other hand, you have Alvarado, who is doing this:
While also lighting up the radar gun:
Alvarado is going to take the closer job in Philadelphia, and I expect him to have more saves than Will Smith, who I think will be sharing the closer's role with Chris Martin, and Anthony Bass, who will lose the closer's role to Yimi Garcia, and Brad Hand, who will pitch himself out of the 9th inning for Tanner Rainey. That means, Alvarado will finish behind only Edwin Diaz for saves in the NL East.
Sixto Sanchez is the fourth-most valuable Marlins starting pitcher
Coming into the season, I already had Sixto Sanchez ranked below Pablo Lopez and Sandy Alcantara, so this bold prediction is really that, by season's end, Trevor Rogers will also be more valuable than Sixto Sanchez. While this is partially because I'm high on the Marlins rotation as a whole, it's also because I'm not convinced that Sixto reaches the upside many see for him this year.
For starters, he really only has two pitches. The change-up is a wipeout pitch, and I love it, and it's clear that he has the velocity on his fastball to miss bats. But the sinker is not a good pitch. It doesn't miss bats, with 14.9% whiff rate and 21.4% CSW, but also had a 5.50 deserved ERA in 2020. The fastball also over-performed last year as it had a Hard Hit% of 60%, exit velocity of 95.6 mph, and a 33% barrel rate (10.5% deserved barrel rate), yet only allowed a .217 batting average. While Sixto has shown the makings of a solid slider, he doesn't seem to trust it as a third pitch. In fact, his game-by-game pitch mix from 2020 has the makings of an EKG machine:
You may see this as a pitcher who has multiple ways to attack hitters, but given his inconsistent results with many of these pitches, I see a young pitcher who has inconsistent command of his pitches and isn't sure how to attack major league hitters yet. He's still young and can certainly get there, but I think there will be growing pains this year, and the other Marlins arms will wind up being more valuable for the 2021 season.
Kyle Crick leads the Pirates in saves until he's traded to Houston
I have zero shares of Richard Rodriguez. I know he was good for the Pirates last year, but they were hesitant to put him in the job in 2020, and they are even more hesitant to name him the closer in 2021. So much so that many Pirates beat writers have suggested that Shelton thinks Rodriguez is better suited to be a set-up man.
Enter Kyle Crick. Once thought of as a closer-in-the-making, Crick was great for the Pirates in 2018 before struggling in 2019, in part due to an inflated 20% HR/FB ratio. However, towards the end of the 2019 season, he also got into a fight with Felipe Vazquez (in hindsight, something we should praise Crick for) and fractured the index finger on his pitching hand. While he was able to pitch in 2020, he admitted that the finger surgery prevented him from lifting weights and completing his offseason throwing program, which put him behind in the short season. Crick only pitched 5.2 innings and his fastball velocity was down from 95.3 mph to 90.9 mph.
Crick claims to be fully healthy now, and if spring results are any indication, he might be right.
His velocity is ramping back up, and his slider is looking as effective as it was in 2018 and 2019, where he had whiff rates of 43.6% and 40.4% respectively, and xBAs of .125 and 0.88. If you're a visual person, this is just a nasty pitch.
If Crick is healthy and pitching well, which he appears to be, I expect the Pirates to use him as their regular closer, if for nothing else then he's a volatile asset who they can deal away while his value is at the highest. My prediction is that they deal him to Houston, which is an organization that has taken on players with off-field concerns before when they believe they can harness natural talent. When Crick does get traded, make sure to pick up David Bednar, who I think ends the season as the Pirates closer (unless he also gets dealt).
Lucas Sims is a top-15 closer
I covered my love for Sims in my article on relief pitcher breakouts and also in this Twitter thread. To sum it up, he seen an important velocity boost since moving to the bullpen, throws a deadly slider, and also has a solid curveball which gives him three swing-and-miss pitches. I believe that Sims has the arsenal to be a near-elite closer, and I think his handedness will give him the advantage over teammate Amir Garrett, who has struggled with right-handed batters over the course of his career.
Sims seems fully recovered from some arm tightness that he felt back in January, so take advantage of the low ADP and roster him on all your teams, as I have.
Cal Raleigh is the Mariners catcher by July and finishes top-10 in HR at the position
I covered Cal Raleigh on my overlook infield prospects article (yes, I snuck him in even though he's a catcher). What I mentioned was: During the 2019 minor league season, Raleigh hit .251/.323/.497 with29 HRs and 82 RBIs in 121 games. If he can be a .240 hitter at the major league level, which I believe he can, with that kind of slugging ability, he would be an asset in most leagues.
Now that Raleigh has also begun making major strides as a defensive catcher, I just don't see Tom Murphy and Luis Torrens standing in the way of his playing time for too long. If Raleigh is up in July, that gives him three-plus months to rack up power numbers. Sean Murphy is currently projected to finish 10th among catchers with 16 HRs, so Raleigh would only need about five per month to top that. Lock it in (OK, don't lock it in; it's just a bold predictions article).
Nick Pivetta finishes as a top-200 player
Listen, somebody is going to have to conduct the Nick Pivetta hype train this year, and considering I've never even been a passenger before, I figure now is my time. Since arriving in Boston last year in the Brandon Workman trade, the Red Sox made a drastic pitch mix change for the tall right-hander.
On the season, the slider had a 20.3% SwStr and 39% CSW, so it's a really intriguing pitch for Pivetta's arsenal, especially considering the inconsistency of his knuckle-curve. If Pivetta is able to be a primary fastball-slider pitcher with the change to mix in against lefties, then he is able to hit all corners of the strike zone and make good on the potential many people have been hyping up for years.
Listen, even the Rays were in on Pivetta, which Peter Gammons reporting that one Rays official said: “We think he can be another [Tyler] Glasnow.” You don't have to be Tyler Glasnow to be a top-200 player, you just have to be better than starting pitchers like Michael Pineda or Chris Bassitt.
Daulton Jeffries makes 20 starts for the A's and is 12-team relevant
The only one of Daulton Jeffries' Spring Training appearances that was televised was his one inning appearance on February 28th so you're forgiven if you don't know that he's been absolutely dealing. Across 13 innings, the Athletics prospect has allowed two runs on seven hits with a 13.8 K/9 and 20:3 K:BB ratio.
In his March 23rd appearance against the Rockies, he struck out seven hitters in four innings while allowing only two hits. This is a former 37th overall pick with sustained success in the minors who is pumping 95 with his fastball and pairing it with a power changeup (which acts like a sinker) and that slider. Many people have projected him for a bullpen role because he's gotten by so far on just the fastball-changeup pairing, but that slider is emerging as a true third pitch that should allow him to remain in the rotation and be successful for the A's, likely bumping A.J. Puk to the bullpen.
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