Eric Cross' Dynasty Notes - Fantasy Baseball News for Edouard Julien, Sandy Alcantara, Andrew Painter, and more

July 22, 2023

Eric Cross' fantasy baseball dynasty news and notes analysis for Week 17 (2023). Notable prospects and risers/fallers for longer-term fantasy baseball dynasty leagues.

In the dynasty world, news and notes articles take on a whole new meaning. Not only are we discussing short-term value with these players, but we need to look long-term as well. A good dynasty manager is like Crazy Eyes from the movie Mr. Deeds. You have to have one eye on the present and one eye on the future. "I wasn't talking to you, Deeds. I was talking to that squirrel over there. [points at a goat]."

So that's what I'm going to do each week with this Dynasty News and Notes article here on RotoBaller. I'll be going around the league, discussing all the notable storylines and players both from a short-term and long-term perspective. Let's get to it.

In this week's report, I'll be discussing plenty of notable arms, the rise of a Minnesota rookie, a pair of prospects to sell high, and much more!

Fantasy Baseball Dynasty News and Notes

In a season with a seemingly endless supply of exciting rookies, Edouard Julien's performance has flown a bit under the radar. In 175 plate appearances, Julien has slashed .316/.391/.566 with nine home runs and a pair of steals.

He's been especially hot since June 10th, slashing .378/.447/.644 with nine doubles and five home runs. Overall, Julien is showing very good Quality of Contact metrics with a 16.3% barrel rate and 45.9% hard-hit rate.

But before we go all-in on Julien as the next big second baseman for fantasy, there are some concerns in the profile as well. Julien currently sports a 31% strikeout rate, 32.3% whiff rate, and a 73.5% zone contact rate. All of those are 8-10% worse than league average.

We also can't just ignore the fact that he's basically a strong-side platoon bat right now who Minnesota isn't even using against left-handed pitchers. So, while I'm a fan of Julien's and believe he could be a top-10 caliber second baseman for fantasy purposes, let's see him improve in some of these areas before we go too high on him in rankings.

Okay, seriously, what the bleep is going on with Sandy Alcantara. While it might not be Alek Manoah levels of drop off, Alcantara has gone from being the 2022 National League Cy Young Award winner to someone with a 4.70 ERA and more blue than red on his Baseball Savant Page. But the real odd part of this story is that many of Alcantara's metrics are right in line with hios 2022 metrics.

Sure, his QoC metrics are a tad worse, but this level of a drop off just doesn't make sense overall when you compare Sandy's 2022 and 2023 metrics. He always seems to have that one blow-up inning, which was exactly the case in his last outing as well.

But overall, I'd still be looking to buy low in dynasty leagues right now. Maybe we won't see Alcantara return to his 2022 levels, but he's certainly better than a 4.70 ERA.

Speaking of struggling arms, Mitch Keller has fell from grace over the last two months or so. It's really been a tale of two seasons for Mr. Keller.

First 10 Starts: 62.2 IP, 2.44 ERA, 2.68 FIP, 3.01 xFIP, .313 SIERA, 5.6% BB, 30.7% K, .201 BAA, 0.97 WHIP

Last 10 Starts: 60.1 IP, 5.07 ERA, 4.55 FIP, 4.45 xFIP, 4.55 SIERA, 8.4% BB, 20.2% K, .253 BAA, 1.36 WHIP

Is Keller getting tired? Most of his pitches are down around a mile per hour in July when compared to May and Keller doesn't have a single pitch above a 20% whiff rate this month. The 4-seam and sweeper are fine from a BAA and SLG allowed standpoint, but Keller's cutter, sinker, and curveball are all getting demolished this month.

In general, I would look to buy low if the opportunity is there. However, I'm also not a believer that we see Keller rebound to his early-season dominance. Moving forward, a 3.50 ERA pitcher with around a league-average strikeout rate feels like an appropriate range for Keller, which would make him a top-50 starter or so.

We might as well keep this struggling arm parade going with Lance Lynn. On the surface, this has been an underwhelming and disappointing season for Lynn with a 6.06 ERA and 1.43 WHIP through 19 starts. Even since June 1st, Lynn still has a 5.27 ERA and 1.29 WHIP.

However, since June 1st, Lynn has recorded a 3.42 xFIP, 3.32 SIERA, and 24.3% K-BB, all three of which rank inside the top-20 for pitchers with more than 30 innings during this span. Lynn is pitching much better than his surface stats would indicate and makes for a great value target for a contending dynasty team looking to bolster the rotation for a title or money push.

Although it shouldn't have come as much of a surprise to anyone, we learned this week that stud pitching prospect Andrew Painter will need Tommy John surgery, something that probably should have happened back in March when these elbow issues first popped up.

If you roster Painter in a dynasty league, you need to hold right now unless the league is incredibly shallow when it comes to the total number of prospects rostered. Painter still possesses arguably the highest upside of any pitching prospect and still could become a fantasy ace down the road. Selling now would bring a watered-down return. And if you don't currently have Painter, now is a great time to try and swoop in with a buy-low offer.

Alright, let's add some positivity to this article. I'm starting to feel a bit bummed out over here. But fortunately, Corbin Burnes is back baby! Since the calendar flipped to July, Burnes has returned to his superman ways with a 1.33 ERA, 0.63 WHIP, and 36.4% strikeout rate over 27 innings.

Opposing batters are hitting just .092 off of Burnes this month with one lone barrel. The only real difference in his pitch usage is a around 5% increase for the curveball and 5% decrease on the sinker when compared to June.

If you can still get Burnes for any sort of a discount due to his overall stat line not being quite what we expected and hoped for when drafting him mas a top-3 SP this spring, I would look to capitalize on that.

Moving over to the hitting side, Chas McCormick has been sneaky productive this season. In 224 plate appearances, McCormick is slashing .286/.372/.531 with 12 home runs and 10 steals. When looking further, his profile doesn't wow you, but that doesn't always need to be the case, especially in a place like Houston where we've seen Bregman have a lot of success without a savant page glowing brighter than Rudolph's red nose.

Given his slightly below league average contact and whiff rates, I do expect slight regression from McCormick moving forward, but he's a solid value target for a contending dynasty team. Just imagine if he actually took advantage of the short Crawford Boxes in left field at Minute Maid Park.

Two prospects I'd be looking to sell high right now in dynasty leagues are San Diego's Ethan Salas and Toronto's Orelvis Martinez. Let's start with Salas. I'd like to preface this by saying that I'm high on Salas long-term and he has all the talent and upside to develop into a fantasy star.

As a 17-year-old in Lo-A, Salas is impressing with a .286/.391/.507 slash line, nine doubles, six home runs, and five steals in 169 plate appearances. He's also showing a mature approach well beyond his years, currently sitting with a 14.2% walk rate and 22.5% strikeout rate.

So why the heck am I recommending selling high? Well, because perceived value is everything in dynasty, and right now, the hype and perceived value for Salas is at a fever pitch. If you're a believer in a 17-year-old catching prospect living up to the massive hype and becoming a stud fantasy catcher in a few years, then by all means hold.

And I'm not sitting here saying "Get rid of Salas at all costs" either. That would be foolish. But if you're able to capitalize on the hype and trade him for a top-100 win-now piece, I would certainly be intrigued. For instance, if you could deal him for a Nick Castellanos, Jordan Westburg, Colton Cowser, etc, that would work for me.

As for Martinez, he's definitely improved as temperature has risen, but I'm still not entirely sold on him. This is a hitter that struggled to hit above the Mendoza Line for much of the last two seasons and all of a sudden it's like none of that happened. Has he begun hitting for more contact? Yes. Is the approach decent? Also yes. But at the same time, Martinez's added contact has seemingly come at the expense of his big power.

From opening day through June 10th, Martinez was hitting only .213 but with a .540 SLG, .307 ISO, and 16 home runs in 49 games. Since then, the AVG has risen to .253 with a .383 OBP in 24 games, but with a .373 SLG, .120 ISO, three doubles, and two home runs.

So, which Orelvis is more valuable? The .210 hitter with big game power or the .250 hitter with less game power? Until Martinez can show that he can consistently hit for both AVG and power, I'm not going to go too high with my ranking of him.

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