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Eric Cross' fantasy baseball dynasty news and notes analysis for Week 20 (2023). Notable prospects and risers/fallers for longer-term fantasy baseball dynasty leagues.
In the dynasty world, news and notes articles take on a whole new meaning. Not only are we discussing short-term value with these players, but we need to look long-term as well. A good dynasty manager is like Crazy Eyes from the movie Mr. Deeds. You have to have one eye on the present and one eye on the future. "I wasn't talking to you, Deeds. I was talking to that squirrel over there. [points at a goat]."
So that's what I'm going to do each week with this Dynasty News and Notes article here on RotoBaller. I'll be going around the league, discussing all the notable storylines and players both from a short-term and long-term perspective. Let's get to it.
In this week's report, I'll be discussing one of my favorite buy-low targets, rising young bats, National League West prospects, and much more.
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Fantasy Baseball Dynasty News and Notes
One of my favorite buy-low targets in dynasty leagues right now is Ke'Bryan Hayes. This is a player I was a bit lower on during his days as a prospect, but now I've become a defender of his and would be looking to acquire him now while his price tag is fairly low. Yes, the surface stats are mostly underwhelming, but you'll certainly be impressed when you look under the hood at Hayes' profile.
There are only eight hitters (min 200 PA) this season with a zone contact rate above 90% and a hard-hit rate above 45%. Hayes is one of them.
On top of that, Hayes has trimmed his groundball rate again this season and has better than league-average whiff and strikeout rates. So what gives? Well, even though his groundball rate has gone down, he's still hitting the ball hard on the ground and limiting his game power. Hayes currently ranks 5th in average exit velocity on groundball versus 96th on flyballs. More tweaks still need to happen, but the blend of contact and hard contact is worth buying into.
Earlier in the season, I was preaching to buy low on Triston Casas in dynasty leagues. And by preaching, I mean screaming it until I was blue in the face. Since June 13th, Casas is raking to the tune of a .324/.400/.627 slash line with eight doubles and 12 home runs, including one of a lefty Friday night. Casas has also dropped his strikeout over the last few months from 28.5% before June 1st to 22.9% since then.
You can honestly make a case for Casas as high as #5 overall at this first base position for dynasty behind the big four of Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Freddie Freeman, Pete Alonso, and Matt Olson. He's demonstrated elite quality of contact metrics, trimmed his ground balls and strikeouts, and walks at a high clip just under 15% for his career. He's becoming the middle-of-the-order caliber bat that Boston hoped he'd become when they drafted him back in 2019.
Another big riser in my dynasty rankings right now is Yainer Diaz. In 260 plate appearances this season, Diaz has posted a .278/.296/.522 slash line with 15 home runs. Yes, he doesn't walk much at all and gets dinged a bit in OBP formats, but Diaz has a 13.7% barrel rate and 45.4% hard-hit rate, along with around league-average zone contact and contact rates. His aggression and incredibly high 45.6% chase rate will probably keep his AVG in check, but Diaz has the contact skills and QoC metrics to still hit .260 with 25 home runs annually. This is a top 10 catcher for dynasty leagues moving forward.
The 2023 season has been one major roller coaster ride for Dodgers outfielder James Outman. After slashing .292/.376/.615 in April with seven home runs and four steals, Outman was the talk of the fantasy baseball world and flying up dynasty rankings. But even with all that statistical goodness, Outman was still striking out 33% of the time. And as it always seems to do, that strikeout rate came back to bite him in the tuchus as Outman then proceeded to slash .165/.261/.291 in May and .224/.297/.254 in June with a combined 36.1% strikeout rate in those months.
However, Outman has been a new man since the calendar flipped from June to July. Since July 1st, Outman has trimmed the strikeout rate to 24.4% while walking 17.6% of the time. This is too small of a sample size to completely forget about the May/June struggles, and the likely scenario is that Outman is a streaky player moving forward who will still wind up with a solid overall line at the end of the season.
Given his power and speed, Outman could settle in as a top-100 player moving forward as long as the valleys don't outweigh the peaks. But if the inconsistencies due to a higher 37.7% whiff rate and lower 72.9% zone contact rate aren't your cup of tea, then right now is an ideal time to try and sell Outman in dynasty leagues if your trade deadline hasn't already come and gone.
On the flip side, I'd be looking to buy Michael Busch anywhere I could in dynasty leagues. When it comes to prospect fatigue, the most extreme case has set in for Busch who is now 26 with more than 1500 plate appearances combined between Double-A and Triple-A. But due to the Dodgers not wanting to play him due to defense or whatever other reason they have, Busch's bat is still very good and could make him an impact fantasy bat whenever and wherever he gets the chance.
In 142 games last season, Busch cranked 38 doubles and 32 home runs with a .274/.365/.516 slash line and has followed that up with an even better .324/.434/.617 slash line this season along with 22 doubles and 22 home runs in 79 games. This could be a .260 hitter with a strong OBP and more than 25 home runs annually. If that comes from the second base position, Busch could wind up as a top-10 overall option. Use that prospect fatigue and capitalize on it in your dynasty leagues.
Let's keep it in the Dodgers organization for a little longer and talk about two of their exciting low-level prospects, shortstop Joendry Vargas and outfielder Eduardo Quintero. Both of these names are quickly rising up prospect rankings given their blend of upside and current performance down in the Dominican Summer League.
Starting with Vargas, the 6'4 shortstop is currently slashing .338/.438/.559 with seven home runs and more walks (27) than strikeouts (26) in 40 games. There were some concerns about his contact abilities when he signed, but Vargas is starting to put those in the rearview mirror and there's still more power projection waiting to be unlocked in this profile.
As for Quintero, he's already racked up 24 extra-base hits and 17 steals with a stellar .370/.475/.623 slash line in 42 games. Quintero has plus or better speed with above-average raw power and is showing an advanced approach so far as well. Both Vargas and Quintero could be top 50 prospects by mid-2024. You could add Josue De Paula to that mix as well who is really heating up after a sluggish start to the season.
Let's finish this week's dynasty notes column with another National League West prospect, San Diego catcher Ethan Salas. What Salas has been able to do so far at his age is simply remarkable. Salas just turned 17 on June 1st and he's already up to Hi-A. In 48 games in Lo-A, Salas slashed .267/.350/.487 with 11 doubles, nine home runs, and a 10.9% walk rate.
I've caught some slack for saying this on Twitter, but why not at least entertain the idea of selling Salas in dynasty leagues right now? My suggesting this is not by any means saying that I don't think Salas is incredibly talented. Because he is. Or that Salas can't turn into a fantasy stud. Because he absolutely could. But in the dynasty world, perceived value is everything, and right now, the perceived value with Salas is off the charts. I'm just saying to test the waters to see what you can get for him.
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