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Eric Cross' fantasy baseball dynasty news and notes analysis for Week 3 (2023). Notable prospects and risers/fallers for longer-term fantasy baseball dynasty leagues.
In the dynasty world, news and notes articles take on a whole new meaning. Not only are we discussing short-term value with these players, but we need to look long-term as well. A good dynasty manager is like Crazy Eyes from the movie Mr. Deeds. You have to have one eye on the present and one eye on the future. "I wasn't talking to you, Deeds. I was talking to that squirrel over there. [points at a goat]."
So that's what I'm going to do each week with this Dynasty News and Notes article here on RotoBaller. I'll be going around the league, discussing all the notable storylines and players both from a short-term and long-term perspective. Let's get to it.
In this week's report, I'll be discussing two arms on the rise, notable prospect promotions, two young outfielders, prospect notables and more.
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Fantasy Baseball Dynasty News and Notes
Nick Lodolo, Fantasy Ace
Many were predicting a breakout season from Cincinnati southpaw Nick Lodolo this season. And low and behold, the breakout is upon us. Last season, Lodolo was one of only three pitchers with a groundball rate above 45% and a strikeout rate above 25% while pitching more than 100 innings. The other two were Corbin Burnes and Shane McClanahan. Fast forward to this season and Lodolo has a stellar 1.50 ERA and 41.7% strikeout rate through his first two outings. Yes, it's still early, but it's clear that Lodolo is starting to cement himself as one of the best young pitchers in baseball.
Just as he was last season, Lodolo is generating plenty of whiffs (38.5%) and groundballs (50%) while limiting his walks as he always has. Both his curveball and changeup currently have a whiff rate above 40% and the xBA, xSLG, and xwOBA on Lodolo's curveball are all under 100%. Given that his home ballpark is a hitter's haven, limiting flyballs and missing bats is huge for Lodolo, and he's consistently proven he can do both. Lodolo continues to rise up my rankings and he's approaching ace territory.
New Look Pablo Lopez
Another arm on the rise early this season is Pablo Lopez. Now, someone like Lopez having a few good starts to open a season usually wouldn't be noteworthy, but it certainly is when Lopez has revamped his arsenal for the better.
| Season | 4-Seam | Sweeper | Changeup | Sinker | Curveball | Cutter |
| 2023 | 33.6% | 22.1% | 21.0% | 15.5% | 7.7% | 0.0% |
| 2022 | 38.8% | 0.0% | 35.3% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 9.7% |
After being very 4-seam and changeup-heavy last season, Lopez's arsenal has become more diverse and deeper this season. Four of his five offerings have a usage rate above 15% and three above 20% including his new sweeper that he introduced this season after ditching his cutter. That sweeper has been huge for Lopez so far with a .071 BAA, .143 SLG, .090 wOBA, and a 60.6% whiff rate. In addition, Lopez's velocity has jumped from 93.6 mph to 95.3 mph on his four-seamer this season and from 93.4 to 94.7 mph on his sinker.
The revamped arsenal has led to a 1.35 ERA, 0.65 WHIP, and 36.6% strikeout rate through Lopez's first three starts and he's yet to allow more than three hits or strike out fewer than eight batters in any one outing. This new look Lopez looks like a top-25 starter and that's not too much of a stretch as he's pitched at that level for short stints in the past. If he can stay healthy for a full season, this could be the year we finally see Lopez establish himself as a #2 starter for fantasy purposes.
Is Jarred Kelenic Finally Breaking Out?
If you know me, you know I want to say yet and hop back on the hype train head first. And part of me is. But at the same time, I'm not going to hop back on after a hot week. We've seen Kelenic have brief moments of brilliance before, but never quite like this. Through the first two weeks of the season, Kelenic is slashing a robust .351/.403/.713 in 41 plate appearances with four doubles, three home runs, and two steals. On top of that, Kelenic has posted a 60.9% hard-hit rate, 21.7% barrel rate, and 93.8 mph AVG EV. His most recent damage came on Wednesday afternoon with the most impressive home run of his career so far.
After Wednesday's game, Kelenic now ranks in the top-10% of hitters in AVG EV, hard-hit%, xBA, xSLG, xwOBA, and barrel rate. But even more impressive is the fact that Kelenic has improved his whiff and chase rates considerably while also improving his walk rate, strikeout rate, and zone contact rate. With that said, Kelenic still has a 27% strikeout rate and a whiff rate above 40% on breaking balls and offspeed pitches. While it's far too soon to say that he's completely figured things out, these first two weeks from Kelenic have to have you encouraged.
Brandon Marsh on the Rise?
Through his first two Major League seasons, Brandon Marsh has been plagued by strikeout rates larger than his beard, finishing with a 35% strikeout rate in 2021 and 34.3% in 2022. So while he displayed solid power and speed metrics, that strikeout rate limited him severely. Maybe a change of scenery was just what the Doctor ordered though as Marsh looks much better at the plate so far here in 2023.
Through his first 34 plate appearances, Marsh has slashed .387/.441/.839 with four doubles, two home runs, and a steal. But more importantly, Marsh has made significant improvements to his approach early on, cutting the strikeout rate from 34.3% to 20.6%, Chase rate from 31.8% to 20.9%, Whiff rate from 29.1% to 16.7%, and improving his zone contact rate from 77.8% to 88.1%. If these early-season improvements are for real and stick moving forward, Marsh has the upside to rise into the top-100 overall of dynasty rankings. Now is a great time to buy before that price tag starts rising.
Edouard Julien and Taj Bradley Promoted
We received not one, but two big-name prospect promotions this week with Edouard Julien in Minnesota and Taj Bradley in Tampa Bay. Both rank with my Top 50 overall prospects and offer exciting short-term and long-term fantasy appeal.
Let’s start with Bradley as he made his Major League debut yesterday against my Boston Red Sox. Bradley went five innings allowing three runs and one walk while striking out eight. He also finished with a solid 35% CSW and a 50% whiff rate on his curveball. While Bradley’s two MiLB starts this season weren’t up to his normal standards, we’re talking about an arm that recorded a 2.66 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 7.6% walk rate, and a 27.4% strikeout rate in the minors. The long-term upside is a #2 starter and Top-50 fantasy arm that can provide decent ratios and a strikeout rate above 25%. He’s worth a look in all 12+ team leagues and maybe even some deeper 10-teamers.
As for Julien, he received the call due to Joey Gallo landing on the 10-day IL earlier this week. Julien was off to a great start in Triple-A with two doubles, two home runs, and a steal in 38 plate appearance with a .290/.421/.548 slash line. This was just more of the same from Julien who is coming off back to back impressive minor league seasons and a dominant showing in the 2022 Arizona Fall League where he slashed .400/.563/.686 with five doubles, five home runs, six steals, and more walks (23) than strikeouts (22) across 96 plate appearances.
The on-base skills are as elite as they come and Julien also possesses above-average or better raw power and enough speed to flirt with double-digit steals annually early in his career. However, he does tend to get overly passive at times and that has led to additional strikeouts due to all the 2-strike counts he gets himself into. If he can find that balance between being patient and aggressively hunting out pitches to drive, the upside is a top-10 fantasy second baseman and maybe even top-5 in OBP formats.
Dynasty Quick Hits
With Tim Anderson landing on the IL, the White Sox recalled shortstop prospect Lenyn Sosa from Triple-A. Sosa was a player I discussed briefly in this week's Top-25 Prospects to Stash for 2023 article here on Rotoballer given his ability to hit for AVG and some power along with Anderson's durability issues. He's not a league-winner, but Sosa definitely has appeal in deeper formats.
Yankees' outfield prospect Spencer Jones is off to a scorching hot start to the minor league season in Hi-A with four doubles, three home runs, and a steal in his first five games. The offensive upside with Jones is enormous and I think we could see him universally within Top-25 prospect rankings by mid-season, maybe sooner than that.
After incredibly underwhelming results entering 2023, Kris Bubic has reinvented himself this season with added velocity and much better bat-missing stuff. As of yesterday, Bubic was within the top-10 pitchers in whiff rate and SwStr rate. I'm definitely intrigued by these changes and willing to buy in moving forward if the price is right.
I've been a supporter of Logan O'Hoppe since seeing him live in the Arizona Fall League back in 2021 and he's consistently risen up prospect and dynasty rankings since then. O'Hoppe has mashed to open the 2023 season with four home runs in his first 39 plate appearances to go along with a 20.8% barrel rate, 93.4 mph AVG EV, 50% hard-hit rate, .640 xSLG, and .566 xwOBACON. Given his blend of contact, approach, and power, O'Hoppe has the skills to cement himself as a Top-10 fantasy catcher capable of .260/20+ seasons with a strong OBP.
Speaking of young Angels players currently on fire. O'Hoppe might be mashing, but Jo Adell is on a whole different level down in Triple-A to open the season. In 11 games, Adell has already cranked eight home runs and four doubles with a .349/.462/1.000 slash line while walking 15.4% of the time and striking out 26.9% of the time. The approach has been a major issue during his Major League career, highlighted by a 37.5% strikeout rate in the Majors last season and a 43.1% mark this spring. It's great to see him mashing right now, but I'm still a bit hesitant to buy back in until he shows an improved approach in the Majors. But at the same time, the price tag is probably dirt cheap right now and the upside is still substantial.
New season, same command and control issues for Jack Leiter. After walking four batters in 4.1 innings yesterday, Leiter is up to seven walks in 8.2 innings this season. This has been an issue for Leiter dating back to his days at Vanderbilt. Leiter walked batters at a 10.8% clip in college and that has ballooned to 13.6% in the minors. I'm not fully out on Leiter given the talent and upside. However, the command and control woes have had me fading him for the last year or so.
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