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Jamie Steed recommends betting picks for the EPL slate on 6/17/2020. He breaks down each team's stats and suggests the top picks for the games.
The English Premier League is back and kicking things off with a two-game slate to get things going. For the remainder of June, there are between two and five games almost every day so the action will come fast and furious. Wednesday offers up two contrasting games on paper and our first chance to see what impact the 3-month hiatus has had on the players.
Before you read on, remember these important things: Betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. Never bet what you can't afford to lose. And if you don't agree with my picks, don't bet on it. I'm far from being a professional gambler and just enjoy a flutter on the soccer. All I'm doing is looking at stats to try and find potential value in the likelier outcomes. I'll just be picking the bets I think offer the best value so it'll be down to you what you bet on and how, with one pick per game being an odds on "lock".
Given players haven't been able to do much in the way of team training until early June, there is also some added volatility to the remainder of games this season. Playing games without any fans in the stadium is also something which could have an unknown level of impact so it'll be a wise move to take things even more slow and sensible to start things off. Feel free to reach me on Twitter @Baseball_Jimbo for any info, have a pop for any duds and (hopefully) pats on the back for winners. All odds are taken from Pinnacle and were correct at the time of writing.
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Sheffield United @ Aston Villa - 1pm EST
Sheffield United 7th - 43 pts
Aston Villa 19th - 25 pts
At the start of the season, both teams were expected to be fighting off relegation. While that's true for Aston Villa, Sheffield United have defied the odds all season and find themselves challenging for qualification to European Competitions next season. Unsurprising then that the two teams had contrasting form prior to the league's suspension.
Aston Villa had lost their four previous league games, conceding 11 goals and scoring three. Sheffield United won three and drew one prior to the break, conceding just two and scoring five. Those games are a microcosm for both teams with Sheffield United's success stemming from keeping things tight defensively and taking their chances at the other end. Only Liverpool have conceded fewer goals this season, yet Sheffield United's 30 goals scored is the 15th fewest.
Aston Villa can't seem to keep goals out and the 56 goals they've shipped in this season are the most in the league. They've actually scored more than their opponents this season with 34 goals scored. So it's a game between a team who struggle for goals but concede few against a team who concede a lot but don't score too many.
Home and away records might count for little with no fans, but it could be worth noting that in Sheffield United's 13 away games this season, they've drawn 7, scoring 13 and conceding 12. It'll be Aston Villa's home form which will determine whether they stay up this season with six of their remaining ten fixtures being at home. Despite being in an empty stadium, the home comforts should be enough to see Aston Villa kick off the resumption with a positive result but I think a draw is on the cards here.
Picks:
- Full-time result - Draw @ 3.420
- Correct score - 1-1 @ 6.750
- Total goals - under 2.5 @ 1.800 (lock)
Arsenal @ Manchester City - 3.15pm EST
Arsenal 9th - 40 pts
Manchester City 2nd - 57 pts
While the first game of the day looks set to be a close and cagey affair, this should be anything but. There's also the added wrinkle of this being a game of pupil versus teacher with Arsenal Head Coach Mikkel Arteta facing off against his former boss Pep Guardiola for the first time.
Manchester City leads the league with 68 goals scored in 28 games while conceding 31. Their issue has been consistency this season as their seven losses are the most they've had since they lost 10 games in the 2015/16 season. They've only managed to string together three straight wins twice this season and haven't won four on the bounce. That said, Manchester City haven't gone two league games without a win all season and lost their last league game, albeit that was over three months ago. I expect that to continue here though.
Arsenal's uninspiring 18 months under the leadership of Unai Emery came to an end earlier this season and since Arteta took over the Head Coach role, he's only tasted defeat in the league once in 11 games. There were signs of improvement in Arsenal's performances before the league suspension but it's hard to think he's managed to instill his philosophies further without much time on the training ground these last three months. A strong finish to the season could salvage what has thus far been a disappointing campaign for Arsenal but it's difficult to see this game continuing their mini-revival.
Both teams have enough attacking talent and goalscorers who can single-handedly win games for their teams. Sergio Aguero has scored 16 goals in 22 league games this season for Manchester City (17 starts and 5 substitute appearances) and Arsenal's Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang has 17 goals in 26 games (26 starts). It's defensively both teams have question marks and Arsenal's frailties seem to stem from mental mistakes more than anything. That's something which could be magnified in empty stadiums. Aguero has also enjoyed success against Arsenal having scored eight times in 13 league appearances against this opponent. This will be Aubameyang's fifth league game against Manchester City and he's failed to score in the previous four, tasting defeat every time too.
Arsenal are also tied for the most yellow cards in the league this season with 65 and has given away five penalties this season, in part due to defensive lapses mentally. In a game where Arsenal will likely be without the ball for more than they have it and with some rust on both teams, I can see them both being on the end of the ref's disdain and a few yellow cards should be brandished.
Arsenal can still beat anyone on their day but Manchester City is the better team on paper and has been on the pitch for some time. If they'd had three months of full training under Arteta, I could make a case for Arsenal getting a positive result, but Manchester City should be the more cohesive team and should get the three points.
Picks:
- Both to score/winner - Yes & Manchester City @ 2.550
- Total Match Bookings - over 4 @ 1.689 (lock)
- Correct score - Manchester City 3 - 1 Arsenal @ 11.000
- First goalscorer - Sergio Aguero 2.400 (this isn't available on Pinnacle but can be found elsewhere)
Good luck with those EPL bets and remember to bet responsibly! Check back for more EPL betting picks this week!
