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Scott "The King" Engel evaluates the latest free agency moves amid a flurry of significant action that is fueling fantasy football speculation. In this edition, he discusses Tom Brady, Melvin Gordon, and more.
Thankfully, the flow of NFL free agency news has remained somewhat steady despite the challenging conditions we are all facing. We have seen many of the non-playoff teams from last season move quickly and aggressively, and some big names change addresses and stir a lot of offseason chatter.
The waves of transactions have given fantasy football players in all formats a lot to follow. Dynasty and keeper leaguers have seen outlooks on some of their players change significantly. Yearly leaguers have a lot to speculate on now, as do Best Ball participants.
Last week, we covered some of the earliest transactions to occur when free agency opened, including some notable trades. Here are some of the King’s latest insights on more of the recent player moves.
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Melvin Gordon to Denver
There seems to be a lot of conjecture that Gordon will now be mired in a committee situation with the Broncos, but Denver did not bring in an RB of Gordon’s status to share much of the workload. Offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur prefers using one main RB, and the team clearly was not satisfied with Royce Freeman and never appeared fully comfortable with Lindsay as a primary RB.
Lindsay rushed for 1,011 yards and seven TDs last year after his impressive rookie year, but the final numbers look more than the weekly breakdown indicates. Lindsay rushed for 100 yards only twice and carried less than 15 times in half of his outings. In 2018, Gordon played 13 games and had 30 more carries than Lindsay did last year. The Broncos were searching for a true lead RB and Gordon fits that bill.
The one glaring issue with Gordon is that he has played a full season just once, so Lindsay is a must-have handcuff. When he is healthy, Gordon can be considered a low-end RB1, as he finished as the fantasy RB8 in 2018 despite missing three games. He will likely be very determined to put a holdout shortened season behind him and I have him ranked as RB12 in PPR in our latest offseason rankings. I would also consider him as a third keeper.
With Gordon now gone in Los Angeles, many fantasy analysts are pushing Austin Ekeler into first-round territory in their ranks. I am hesitant to rate Ekeler that high yet. I am still skeptical of him as a runner, as he never rushed for more than 66 yards when Gordon was holding out early in the season. His receiving numbers were obviously outstanding, but now Ekeler takes on a new and different role and his mode of output will change. Can he be a true workhorse RB? We need to see it first before he gets moved up from the late second round or second keeper range here. Ekeler must prove he can be more than just a terrific receiver now. He’ll be asked to run more and likely catch the ball less, which puts a less certain outlook on his total production.
Tom Brady to Tampa Bay
The GOAT is coming off maybe his most disappointing season ever. His 24 TD passes were his lowest total since 2006. The 6.6 yards per attempt were his worst number since 2002. His 10.9 yards per completion was his lowest mark in that department in over a decade. Obviously Brady had one of the most mediocre receiving crews of his career to work with, but questions about age and declining ability began to creep in as well.
We will find out for sure this season whether it was the supporting cast or a true falloff by Brady himself that led to him finishing as fantasy QB14 last year. He now has arguably the best WR pairing in the league to work with, Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Those types of weapons, along with other notables such as O.J. Howard and Scott Miller, provide Brady with excellent receiving depth. If he cannot improve on his 20.6 percentage of bad throws from last season (third-worst in the league), with such a crew, then Brady will clearly be at the end of the line. Brady was 24th in Intended Air Yards Per Pass Attempt (average depth of target whether completed or not), a number that simply has to improve with his new group of pass-catchers,
Brady cannot be ranked as a QB1 in fantasy football for 2020 because he must show that his shortcomings from last season were indeed due to a thin receiving group. But the upside associated with him working with his new targets does put him in the high-end QB2 range.
Via Pro Football Reference
Philip Rivers to Indianapolis
Rivers was a dependable and underrated fantasy QB for over a decade before he had one of his worst seasons ever in 2019. His 23 TD passes were his lowest since 2007. The 3.4 interception percentage was also one of the worst of his career. Rivers finished as fantasy QB18 last season.
What will help Rivers is that he goes from the Chargers 29th ranked offensive line (via Pro Football Focus) in 2019 to the Colts’ third-ranked unit. Indianapolis also has good receiving depth and that could push Rivers back into high-end fantasy QB2 territory.
Robby Anderson/Breshad Perriman
The Jets lost Anderson to the Panthers. D.J. Moore should be the clear No. 1 WR for Carolina and we will have to wait and see if Teddy Bridgewater prefers Curtis Samuel or Anderson as the second target. Bridgewater has fine depth in his new receiving crew but has a lot to prove as a fantasy producer. Anderson should only be considered as a fantasy WR4/5.
The Jets wasted no time in replacing Anderson with Perriman, who came through with the best stretch of his career late in 2019, with 25 receptions, three 100-yard games and five TD catches between Weeks 13-17. He headed into free agency with a lot of momentum but has yet to play effectively over an extended stretch. Perriman is an upside fantasy WR4 heading into 2020.
Emmanuel Sanders to New Orleans
The Saints landed the stable No. 2 WR they have been missing. Sanders was unreliable last season, but it’s difficult for a WR to adjust to mid-season trades. Sanders should be considered a fantasy WR3 for next season.
More Moves to Consider
Todd Gurley will lead a committee in Atlanta. Do not be surprised to see Qadree Ollison steal some short-yardage carries and Ito Smith could also be in the mix. Gurley should be considered a low-end RB2 with the Falcons. … Eric Ebron at least has high-end fantasy TE2 promise as a TD threat for Ben Roethlisberger. … Randall Cobb’s best years are behind him and I would expect Houston to bolster their WR corps somehow in the coming weeks. They Texans could be the type of team that trades for Brandin Cooks as the draft is still ahead. …. Devin Funchess may be a short-yardage TD target in Green Bay but is likely not rosterable in fantasy. … Do not expect Brian Hoyer to start for New England. Jarrett Stidham seems to be the likely starter, as the Patriots don’t seem to have the cap room to make a significant move to replace Brady. Stidham is well-regarded internally and is a curious depth piece in dynasty leagues.
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