Eddie Rosario to Cleveland - Fantasy Impact

The Minnesota Twins surprised many when they decided to place outfielder Eddie Rosario on waivers this past December 1. He was up for arbitration and was expected to make anywhere from $8.6M-$12.9M. To many, that seemed like a fair price for a productive outfielder. With no one snagging Rosario off waivers, he became a free agent. So, where was Rosario going to land? So many teams could use a corner outfielder with solid plate discipline and 25+ home run upside. Then it happened.

The Cleveland Indians, of all teams, signed Rosario to a one-year deal worth $8M. The contract was worth less than his anticipated earnings in arbitration. On the bright side, the 29-year-old Rosario will stay in the AL Central while calling a new ballpark home, a ballpark that may play into his strengths much better than his former park in Minnesota. 

Rosario will hit towards the top of the Indians lineup with Jose Ramirez and Franmil Reyes, meaning there should be plenty of fantasy production on tap. Let’s check out the full fantasy impact of Rosario leaving the Twins and joining the Indians. 

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A Change of Scenery

Rosario has spent his first six years in the major league as a member of the Minnesota Twins, but now it is time to spread his wings and experience a new team in the Cleveland Indians. He should be familiar with the ballpark as he played at Progressive Field 9-10 times per season while a member of the Twins. When looking at ESPN’s primary park factors, there is no significant change between Progressive Field and Target Field. That changes when looking more in-depth at the RotoFanatic park factor tool and looking at LHH to RF. 

The numbers displayed are the rankings per 30 stadiums in 2019 since 2020 was quite a small park factor sample. As one can see, Cleveland was the sixth-best park in baseball for LHH to hit home runs to RF. Progressive was in the top half in baseball for all four of the offensive categories, where Target Field was in the bottom half in HR, SLG, and xwOBAcon. This factors in nicely for Rosario as he pulled the ball 40.6% and 44.4% of the time in 2018 and 2019. He regressed some in 2020, only pulling the ball 38.8% of the time which was still the third-best of his career. 

Bounce-back 2021?

Many will look at Rosario’s 2020 season and think his down season should lead to some significant concern. Well, I am not in that camp. When looking at a lot of his quality of contact, overall contact skills, and more, everything looks the same for Rosario. The bigger problem for Rosario was his lack of aggressiveness or just overall swinging the bat. Let’s look at some numbers.

The numbers tell a pretty strong story about a small sample that could have panned out with a full season. Rosario’s contact rates are essentially the same as his previous two seasons, while his swinging percentages dropped dramatically. This tells me he was still making the same contact and overall the same quality of contact, but there was less contact since he was swinging less. As we have seen with many other players in the shortened 60 game season, aggressiveness was lessened, resulting in a lesser production. That could have been changed with a full season of action. 

Another effect of the lower swing rates was a lower batting average and lower BABIP. His average hit a career-low of .257 with a career-low BABIP of .248. Less swinging results in fewer balls in play, pretty simple stuff. Once again, the quality was still strong as Rosario had a .219 ISO (.224 in 2019), .333 wOBA (.329 in 2019), and a 110 wRC+ (103 in 2019). Rosario also hit 13 home runs and stole three bases over the shortened season after averaging 28 home runs and 5.5 stolen bases over the previous two seasons. Lastly, swinging less at the plate did not affect his strikeout rate, which was 14.7% in 2020 compared to 14.6% in 2019, while his walk rate improved to 8.2% in 2020 after 3.7% in 2019. 

What to Expect in 2020

Before the 2020 season, Rosario was a consistent power producer that even brought a decent average between .276-.290 while contributing in the other major ROTO categories. He took a step back in the shortened 2020 season, but there appears to be a clear explanation that should be easy to remedy. Rosario also will play in a home ballpark that should improve his overall power production. When looking at the projections, he is back in line for another strong fantasy season. 

The ATC projections, as well as the other major projection sources, support a Rosario bounceback season. According to the January NFBC Draft Champions, ADP Rosario is drafted as the 31st outfielder around pick 120. He is being drafted around other outfielders like Tommy Pham, Dominic Smith, and Alex Verdugo. Rosario has a better track record than a couple of those players and a locked-in roll in the Indians lineup that not all of those players can claim. Rosario should be back to a steady fantasy stud and appears to be a bit of a draft-day value at his current ADP. 

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