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NCAA Tournament bracket picks and team predictions for the East Region. Read Nick's March Madness picks and game by game breakdowns.
March is here! I don't love Virginia getting in, but my only real gripe is that New Mexico and Duquesne are both 11 seeds. That's pure INSANITY. Duquesne is 83rd in the NET and 86th in KenPom, while the Lobos are 22nd and 23rd respectively.
It's just straight-up laziness from the selection committee, a crew who acts like they're the most sleep-deprived, hard-working group in the country. You stay up late once a year, get over yourselves.
Okay, I'm done ranting. Otherwise, I'm just a happy guy with a bracket in my hands, exactly how I've been for the past 30 years.
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March Madness Bracket Predictions
If you consume any sort of March Madness content, the first thing you'll hear is how good teams must be in KenPom. Or to be exact, how they rank in offensive and defensive efficiency. I'm going to touch on the handful of teams who actually can win the NCAA Tournament, but for the most part, those numbers don't mean much when it comes to game-by-game breakdowns. Here's an example:
When filling out my bracket, I prefer to revert to this advice, 'Almost anyone can make the Final Four, only a select few can win the title.'
Here, I'm going to break down every first-round matchup and pod with game-by-game and futures bets. And our first region is dangerous. The East Region, led by the overall #1 Connecticut Huskies, contains three of KenPom's top five teams and four of the top ten. An absolute bloodbath to survive and this year's "region of death".
1. Connecticut (-26.5) vs 16. Stetson
UConn is a wagon. I've said it all year, and they proved how good they are down the stretch, winning seven straight relatively easily with a 20-1 record since their December loss to Seton Hall. They are the heavy favorite to cut down the nets, and rightfully so. Stetson made a nice run through the ASUN tourney but is at a disadvantage in every category. The Huskies should put up 100+ here and slide on through to the Round of 32.
8. Florida Atlantic (-2.5) vs 9. Northwestern
Florida Atlantic money line was my first bet of this year's tournament. A good portion of bracketologists and college hoops fans thought they shouldn't have even made the dance, let alone on the eight-seed line. The Owls struggled against below-average teams with two Quad 4 losses, but have also played with the best, beating Arizona and Texas A&M on neutral courts and taking Illinois down to the wire.
Despite multiple missteps, they're still the same team that made a Final Four run 12 months ago. Vlad Goldin provides the post play and rebounding presence to survive with high-major programs, while Johnell Davis and his bevy of backcourt mates can hit you in waves.
Northwestern is in a similar boat, beating Purdue in December before losing to Chicago State and dropping three of four down the stretch. While Boo Buie has been great, the loss of Ty Berry has been massive for their overall shot creation. Goldin should have a rebounding edge for FAU, and they can run several defenders at Buie.
I tweeted it and took the Owls at +114 during the reveal show and I'd still take them up to -2 as a play.
5. San Diego State (-6.5) vs 12. UAB
UAB did make a great run to punch their ticket, but I believe that ends here. San Diego State is a physical presence and should be able to hold UAB on the glass, which is their specialty when threes aren't falling. Jaedon LeDee has dominated better big men throughout the season and has a decent path to 20/10 in this matchup. Eric Gaines is a legit scorer for the Blazers, but similar to Northwestern, there's a big drop-off after him. SDSU coach Brian Dutcher showed last year how good of a game planner he is in March, and I trust he'll continue that trend on Friday.
No play for me here, but I'm interested in backing the Aztecs with the right number.
4. Auburn (-12.5) vs 13. Yale
Yes, I do think Yale can hang around in this matchup. Unfortunately, they're not good enough at any one thing for me to advance past a stingy Tigers team. The keys to defeating Auburn are having someone who can slow down Johni Broome and pressure their guards into off-schedule threes. This is a good team that the metrics LOVE, but something about their main ball handlers, KD Johnson and Aden Holloway, doesn't sit right with me.
If Broome can be taken away in the post, they end up forcing horrible jumpers. However, they should be fine against this Yale squad who struggled with stepping up to competition this year. Despite some talent flaws, they have decent size and rebound well, which is why I think they'll hang around and why the Tigers -12.5 is about right.
6. Brigham Young (-8.5) vs 11. Duquesne
I'm sorry, but Duquesne is over-seeded. Samford, Yale, and Charleston are all within a few points of the Dukes yet all sit on the 13-seed line.
Rumor is this 11 seed was for VCU and the committee was too lazy to make any big changes so they left it. Specific to this matchup, Keith Dambrot's Dukes' strength is on the defensive end and being able to force turnovers. Unfortunately for them, the BYU Cougars play Iowa State and Houston twice a year and have handled their ball pressure fine. The three-ball will be the difference here as BYU shoots them at a 50% rate. If this unique offense takes care of the rock, I'm okay with laying anything under -7.
3. Illinois (-12) vs 14. Morehead State
Man, Illinois looks GOOD sometimes, huh? Terrence Shannon Jr. and Marcus Domask can punish you in transition and in the mid-post during half-court sets. Defense, however, has been a liability all season. Ranking 3rd in offensive efficiency and 97th in defensive efficiency is what we like to call a "paper tiger."
They look great at times, but when push comes to shove on a neutral court, tensions rise, and it becomes increasingly difficult to get stops down the stretch. Every year there are several teams with similar profiles (Kentucky, Alabama), and more often than not, they get upset early for this very reason. Morehead can rebound and score at the rim, allowing them to hang with the Illini's offensive explosion and keep this one within the number.
Brad Underwood has been one of the most underwhelming coaches in the postseason, but I wouldn't be surprised to see anything from this team, or Kentucky and Bama. They're so good offensively on any hot night they're playing with the best. Unfortunately, if they're off, Morehead could hang around enough to squeak out a victory. I'm likely just a fan of this one.
7. Washington State (-1) vs 10. Drake
The Drake Bulldogs are my second official bet of this tournament. Tucker DeVries is the real king of (M)arch.
He is a pure hooper, averaging 21.8 ppg, 6.8 rbg, and 3.6 apg with an extremely high usage rate. Follow that up with senior big man Darnell Brodie and a bevy of skilled guards and you have a dangerous mid-major. We've also seen how good Missouri Valley teams can be in March a la Loyola Chicago making the Final Four as an 11-seed. Now, Washington State beat 2-seeded Arizona twice this season, they don't have another win against a ranked opponent.
Their slow pace can give up-tempo teams pause, but this Drake squad is comfortable playing in transition or in the half-court. They take care of the ball, can hit jumpers, and are one of the best teams in the country on the defensive glass. This playstyle should limit Wazzou's extra possessions and force their offense to be near perfect to maintain a lead. Give me the DeVries father-son duo up to -2.
2. Iowa State (-16) vs 15. South Dakota State
South Dakota St. is a high-variance team shooting with good guard play in Zeke Mayo and a seven-footer on the inside. They also give up a billion threes and are generally weaker on the defensive side of the ball. The Jackrabbits' game log would lead you to believe they don't turn the ball over too much; however, the Summit League overall doesn't have great ball pressure, and anyone can be sped up by Tamin Lipsey and Keshon Gilbert. SDSU lost to Kansas State and UCF in the non-conference, who are both considerably worse than ISU. TJ Otzelberger's bunch has an excellent resume and defends as well as anyone in the tournament. ISU advances.
Region Picks
As for picking the region, I'm not going to over-complicate things. Iowa State will have Illinois' guards in a straight jacket but BYU is a little interesting, given they split their matchups with the Cougars this season. Up top, I have to take the Huskies. They have a near-perfect roster with sharpshooters, rebounders, and a defensive prowess. Florida Atlantic could hang around with their guard depth and Goldin in the post, but I'm having a hard time getting past their defensive lapses against subpar competition. A lot of analysts are going to talk about Auburn's potential, but those guards just aren't for me. Huskies vs Cyclones in the E8 would be a war but I have to take chalk with the overall #1 seed to be the champion of the East.
My current NCAA Tournament Bets:
Florida Atlantic ML (+114 Draftkings) risk 1u to win 1.14u
Texas A&M +3 (-110 Draftkings) risk 1u to win .91u
Drake ml (+105 Draftkings) risk 1u to win 1.05u
YTD 132-108-2, +10.97u
New Mexico to make Final Four (+2500 BetMGM) risk .4u to win 10u
Futures: 0-2, -.6u
Follow me on Twitter @DrRoddy_ or here for up-to-date bets
More March Madness Analysis
