Early Season Report Card - Starting Pitchers

April 21, 2021

Jamie Steed's early season fantasy baseball report card for starting pitchers - whether they are SP risers, fallers and their fantasy projections for the rest of 2021.

It's now been three weeks since Opening Day and the majority of teams have played 16 games representing 10% of the season. That also means, for the most part, Opening Day starters and teams' aces have made between 10-12.5% of their starts. There are some exceptions of course due to postponements, largely COVID-related, which have curtailed a whole series for some clubs.

We now have some solid early data we can look in on and see how players are performing. Considering drafts this preseason saw an unprecedented number of starting pitchers being taken early, that's a great place to go into more depth and see if they are justifying their early ADP and will have provided value by season's end.

All ADP data is taken from NFBC (1,380 live drafts) and we're going to assess the first 12 starting pitchers taken according to their ADP. In true report card fashion, we'll have a quick look at their performances and grade their work so far. We'll also offer a projected grade for what the rest of the season might look like for them. And we'll revisit the grades at the mid-way point of the season and again at the end of the 2021 campaign.

Jacob deGrom, New York Mets

ADP: 5.23
GP 3, W-L 1-1, IP 20.0, K 35, ERA 0.45, WHIP 0.70

Any questions about whether deGrom was the no.1 starting pitcher in baseball should have already been eradicated. Victimized by the Mets opening series against the Nationals being postponed due to Covid-19, then having a start against the Phillies rained off meaning he took the mound in a road game against the Rockies instead. It didn't matter as he struck out 14 batters in six innings of work without giving up an earned run. The Mets offense was even kind enough to actually rally late and reward deGrom's fantasy managers a win. The fact deGrom only has one win from three starts while sporting an ERA of 0.45 is actually comical.

Current grade: A+

The postponements and impending double-headers might mean deGrom missing a start or two by the end of the season. But his .281 BABIP is in line with his last three seasons (.281, .282 and .288) while his 1.59 xFIP and 1.38 SIERA support his excellence. His 48.6% strikeout rate (K%) likely won't sustain as his season-high prior to 2020 was 32.2% (2018) but he could still flirt with a 300 K season.

Projected rest of season grade: A

Gerrit Cole, New York Yankees

ADP: 7.21
GP 4, W-L 2-1, IP 24.2, K 39, ERA 1.82, WHIP 0.81

While the Yankees offense is struggling, Cole has been the shining light in the Bronx. Similar to deGrom, run support hasn't aided his fantasy value but he's notched two wins in his four starts and only one other pitcher has tallied more strikeouts than his 39. Cole has only given up one walk in his last three starts and while in previous seasons, has given up more homers than he'd have liked (career 11.5% HR/FB), he's not been homered off since Opening Day. When batters make contact with Cole, they do hit him hard. It's just very difficult to make contact to begin with.

Current grade: A

Cole has only completed seven innings once in his four starts but has the second-highest BABIP (.314) on this list so expect some hits to turn into outs (assuming the Yankees begin playing like a Major League team on defense). If suppressing home runs continues, we could be looking at a career-best ERA this year.

Projected rest of season grade: A

Shane Bieber, Cleveland Indians

ADP: 9.99
GP 4, W-L 2-1, IP 29.1, K 48, ERA 2.45, WHIP 0.92

"Bieliebers" will be delighted with the start the Indians ace has made. All four outings have been quality starts and the 48 strikeouts lead MLB. To understand how impressive that is, only one pitcher has ever recorded 48 strikeouts in their first four starts to a season; Nolan Ryan. No one has ever struck out ten batters in each of their first four starts of the season until Bieber achieved that on Sunday. Even the low-scoring Indians (23rd in runs scored) have helped Bieber get a couple of wins.

Current grade: A

Bieber's ERA is supported by his xFIP (2.30) and SIERA (2.36) and his early walk rate (BB%) of 8.5% is higher than ever (career 5.3% BB%). If the walk rate comes down long term, along with the weaker schedule the AL Central division should provide, Bieber is looking at a historic season.

Projected rest of season grade: A+

Trevor Bauer, Los Angeles Dodgers

ADP: 15.79
GP 4, W-L 2-0, IP 24.2, K 36, ERA 2.42, WHIP 0.62

Bauer has picked up where he left off last season. If you expected a sub-2.00 ERA, then you were always going to be disappointed. Like Cole, Bauer has maxed out at seven innings in his starts but has gone at least six innings in all four outings. Usage was a concern with Dodgers pitchers this year so that has actually been encouraging early on. He has given up four homers, although two came in his first start at Coors Field. Even though the Rockies haven't put up huge runs at home (55 in 10 games), they still accounted for four of the seven earned runs allowed by Bauer this season in that first game.

Current grade: A-

Given the Dodgers powerhouse offense and excellent bullpen, Bauer should have no problem getting wins even if he only goes six or seven innings in the majority of starts. His .125 BABIP will go up and likely lead to a higher ERA and WHIP over a full season. He's been excellent, but given how well the top-3 starting pitchers are looking, his ADP and numbers when compared to those three suggest you'd have been better with taking deGrom, Cole or Bieber. Or waiting another round to take your first SP. There's still that lingering concern about MLB clamping down on foreign substance use too.

Projected rest of season grade: B+

Yu Darvish, San Diego Padres

ADP: 17.76
GP 4, W-L 2-0, IP 26.0, K 28, ERA 2.55, WHIP 0.81

The start Joe Musgrove has made to the year in San Diego (including his no-hitter) has taken the limelight among Padres starters. But Darvish has been excellent to start the season with three straight quality starts, allowing just one earned run. His first start wasn't stellar (4.2 IP and four earned runs on eight hits and a walk) but he's bounced back. His first three starts came against the Diamondbacks, Pirates and Giants (who have actually been good offensively) so it was good to see him excel against the Dodgers in his last start (7.0 IP, 1 ER and 9 K).

His early soft schedule does make it hard to get over-excited about his start but it's been encouraging nonetheless. It obviously helps when you have elite spin rates (96th percentile in fastball spin-rate and 82nd percentile in curveball spin-rate) and an extensive arsenal, such as Darvish possesses.

Current grade: B+

Darvish has a 3.37 xFIP and 3.14 SIERA while sporting a low BABIP of .211. The rest of his numbers are pretty much what you'd expect and around his career numbers but his ERA will creep up given those underlying numbers. His strikeout numbers won't match the starters taken earlier so it's hard to believe he'll offer a similar value to them at their ADP.

Projected rest of season grade: B

Lucas Giolito, Chicago White Sox

ADP: 18.19
GP 4, W-L 1-1, IP 18.2, K 26, ERA 5.79, WHIP 1.29

Prior to Monday, Giolito likely would have had an 'A' grade. Monday was a stark reminder of how much one bad start can inflate a pitcher's ERA. Monday's start saw Giolito's ERA go from 2.55 to 5.79. That's what giving up seven earned runs in one inning of work will do to you. His first two starts of the season weren't particularly great either, lasting just 5.1 IP each and giving up two earned runs against the Angels and three earned runs against the Mariners. The shortened starts might have been a case of easing into the season but Monday's start has raised a red flag of concern.

Current grade: C-

Even after Monday's horror show outing, Giolito has a 2.91 xFIP and 3.17 SIERA. His K% of 32.1% and BB% of 8.6% are similar to his numbers the previous two seasons so everything else looks intact. Even pitching in a weak offensive division like the AL Central, the concern now is that Giolito is capable of these huge blow-up outings and he'll need to put a string of solid starts together to restore faith among his fantasy managers.

Projected rest of season grade: B

Walker Buehler, Los Angeles Dodgers

ADP: 22.05
GP 3, W-L 1-0, IP 18.0, K 12, ERA 2.00, WHIP 1.00

Unlike most on this list, Buehler has made only three starts so far despite the Dodgers having played their full schedule so far. His usage is more to do with the Dodgers starting rotation depth and their eagerness not to overtax their starters after last year's shortened season. Buehler is due to start Thursday against the Padres so is hardly far behind the others, but is still something noteworthy. Of all five Dodgers starters, he has the lowest ERA but also has the lowest K% (17.1%). Buehler has only allowed one walk so far and all three starts went six innings so qualified for quality starts too.

Current grade: B+

While Buehler has had success early, his low strikeout rate is a slight worry but his career K% is 28.1% so it should normalize. His BB% (1.4%) will also normalize too, only in the wrong direction for Buehler's fantasy managers. The main concern is his expected ERA (xERA) is 4.67, xFIP is 4.03 and SIERA is 4.07, all of which suggests his ERA will begin to climb sooner rather than later. If his body of work is limited also, as it's believed to be, it's difficult to see Buehler giving comparative value compared to his ADP against others on this list.

Projected rest of season grade: C+

Aaron Nola, Philadelphia Phillies

ADP: 22.65
GP 4, W-L 1-1, IP 24.2, K 28, ERA 2.19, WHIP 0.97

Nola had a solid start to 2021 which culminated in a complete game shut out (CGSO) on Sunday against the Cardinals. He struck out 10 batters and allowed just two hits and zero walks, in part largely to his curveball being at its nastiest.

Prior to his CGSO, Nola hadn't been very economical with the pitch counts in his starts, needing 92 pitches in both outings against the Mets which lasted only 4.0 IP and 5.0 IP. That also prevented Nola from picking up any wins until Sunday despite the Phillies winning two of his first three appearances. His numbers have still been great despite the shortened outings.

Current grade: A-

The NL East division is shaping up to be as competitive as everyone expected. It might come as no surprise that his best start so far came in his only start against a non-divisional opponent. Familiarity breeds contempt (as the saying goes) and division rivals seeing Nola multiple times this season will unlikely benefit him. He has a 2.97 xFIP and SIERA along with a .294 BABIP so there are no concerns his ERA won't continue to be excellent even if the NL East teams have more success against Nola than other teams.

Projected rest of season grade: A

Max Scherzer, Washington Nationals

ADP: 27.33
GP 3, W-L 0-1, IP 19.0, K 24, ERA 2.37, WHIP 0.68

Due to a previously mentioned COVID outbreak, the Nationals season started later than most, hence Scherzer has only made three starts with his fourth start due to be on Wednesday. Scherzer's delayed season debut brought mixed results as he finished with a line of 6 IP, 4 ER, 5 H, 0 BB, 9 K. All four runs were solo homers and Scherzer hadn't allowed four home runs in a start since May 2016. In his last two starts, Scherzer has allowed just one run on five hits and three walks while striking out 15 in just 13 innings, which is much more Scherzer-like.

Current grade: B

Stories of Scherzer's demise after his first start appear to have been premature. Interestingly, despite his 2.37 ERA being markedly better than last year's 3.74 ERA, his xFIP is 3.49 and only marginally better than last year's 3.53 xFIP. The fact that four of his hits allowed have been home runs explains why his BABIP is sitting at .158. There isn't anything in his profile which should cause concern moving forward.

Projected rest of season grade: B+

Luis Castillo, Cincinnati Reds

ADP: 29.14
GP 4, W-L 1-1, IP 19.1, K 16, ERA 6.05, WHIP 1.66

Castillo has been the undoubted disaster of this list. The fact that he only lasted four innings in his latest outing on Tuesday (allowing seven hits and three walks) yet still lowered his ERA by a full run tells you all you need to know. Castillo gave up three runs in the first inning (one earned) from four hits before settling down a little. His Opening Day start still lingers at the forefront of fantasy managers' minds when Castillo allowed 10 runs (eight earned) in just 3.1 IP. His second start gave us a glimpse of what he is capable of, firing seven shutout innings against the Pirates. But his two starts since have been far from ace-like and after that Opening Day meltdown, Castillo hasn't given his fantasy managers any reason for joy.

Current grade: F

You can make a case that Castillo has been unlucky, with an xFIP of 4.18, SIERA of 4.28 and BABIP of .365. Even if his ERA does drop nearer those marks, that's still not what you expect from your fantasy ace. Of concern is his 17.8% K% (career 26.6%) and his average fastball velocity which currently sits at 95.7 MPH (down from 97.4 MPH last year). The last time he had an average fastball velocity around that mark was in 2018 (95.8 MPH) when he had a 4.30 ERA on the season. Castillo has made reference to not liking to pitch in cold weather but at the moment, all Castillo's fantasy managers are clinging on to for hope is warmer weather. Not ideal for a starting pitcher taken in the third round.

Projected rest of season grade: D

Jack Flaherty, St. Louis Cardinals

ADP: 32.81
GP 4, W-L 3-0, IP 21.1, K 21, ERA 3.80, WHIP 1.13

Flaherty's 2020 campaign perfectly highlighted how a smaller sample size can impact outcomes. When comparing his underlying numbers, his 2020 season was as good as his breakout 2019 campaign (shown in the below table). Through four starts this season, Flaherty's ERA falls in the middle of his previous two seasons, yet his underlying numbers are worse. And yet, he is the only pitcher on this list with three wins despite only averaging 5.1 IP per start. Flaherty's Opening Day start saw him give up six earned runs in 4.1 innings (on six hits and two walks) so his three wins have brought some fantasy relief following that early disaster.

Current grade: C+

Flaherty's 8.5% BB% is actually the highest of anyone on this list but is still in line with his career mark of 8.5%. His K% of 23.3% is down on his career mark of 28.9%. His xFIP is 4.23, SIERA is 4.19 and his xERA is 4.86. I know four starts is a small sample size, but his underlying numbers from these four starts are a cause for concern if they continue.

Projected rest of season grade: C-

Brandon Woodruff, Milwaukee Brewers

ADP: 34.57
GP 4, W-L 1-0, IP 23.0, K 26, ERA 1.96, WHIP 0.74

Corbin Burnes has been the undoubted star in the Brewers rotation so far, but Woodruff has been equally impressive. Woodruff is another pitcher who had a disappointing Opening Day start (4.0 IP, 6 H, 2 BB, 4 ER and 5 K) but has bounced back with three consecutive quality starts. Just five hits allowed in his last three starts (19.0 IP) has seen Woodruff's ERA and WHIP plummet. Two of his starts have come against the Cubs who had the worst offensive numbers at the time he faced them but his last start came against the Padres, giving up just one run in six innings. Among qualified pitchers, Woodruff is the only one yet to give up a barrel this year. It's been a disappointment for his fantasy managers they only have one win from those three great outings but Woodruff has done everything in his power to provide value on his ADP.

Current grade: A

Although Woodruff has a .204 BABIP, his xERA of 2.02 gives hope that his ERA isn't going to balloon any time soon. His 29.9% K% is similar to the last two seasons (29.0% in 2019 and 31.1% in 2020). Woodruff's BB% of 6.9% is also similar to his career mark of 6.7%. His fastball velocity (96.8 MPH) is near identical to 2020 (96.6 MPH) as well. Everything in his numbers suggests he can continue this success. Just keep in mind, the most innings Woodruff has thrown in any MLB season is 121.2 (in 2019).

Projected rest of season grade: A-

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