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Early Deep Sleepers / Dynasty Stashes for 2017 (Part Two)

It's never too early to dream about next year. Whether you're looking for the perfect sneaky keeper or dynasty stash, or you're already eliminated from contention from your playoffs, there exists a smorgasbord of underowned players at every position ripe for the picking.

The premise is simple: identify players with very low ownership rates who have the potential to gain relevance in standard mixed formats. Low ownership rates serve as a proxy for general interest in players heading into next season; the lower the ownership rate, the lower that player will likely slip on draft day 2017.

Editor's Note: Purchase a full season NFL Premium Pass (including DFS Premium), and also get MLB Premium + DFS for free through the playoffs. Premium DFS research, lineup picks, expert lineups, tools and more. You can see screenshots of our NFL Premium and MLB Premium and DFS tools. What are you waiting for?

 

It's Never Too Early

This week will feature a shortstop, third baseman and outfielder. Next week will feature three starting pitchers. Each of the following players are owned in 10 percent or less of fantasy leagues, according to FleaFlicker.

 

Shortstop

Chris Owings, ARI
2016 stats: 4 HR, 48 R, 42 RBI, 18 SB, .274/.316/.415 in 439 PA

Owings isn't the gold standard of excellence in on-base percentage (OBP) leagues. With an 18.7% strikeout rate (K%) and 4.6% walk rate (BB%), he has a Starlin Castro feel to him, albeit with the home run and stolen base columns swapped. Accordingly, Owings doesn't immediately project to be a special bat, despite his status as a former 1st-round pick. He looks a lot like the player he demonstrated he was in the minor leagues, which is actually a compliment -- guys like Owings frequently don't pan out with his skill set. But, with an 89 wRC+, he is a decidedly below-average hitter.

He does a few things well, though. He mitigates his aversion to free trips to first base by hitting the ball well when he makes contact, running a .320 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) through his first 1,400-ish plate appearances. His elevated line drive rate (LD%), above-average infield fly ball rate (IFFB%), decent hard-hit rate (Hard%) and plus speed all support his perennially robust BABIP.

Speaking of speed: it's the second time in two years that Owings has surpassed the 15-steal threshold. It's nothing exemplary, but with power more plentiful than ever, stolen bases have become relatively scarce. Owings' 17 steals place him tied for 6th among shortstops, making him something like a poor man's Elvis Andrus (owned in 69% of leagues; NFBC ADP 7th among shortstops) or a normal man's Alcides Escobar (16%; 15th).

(Note: Owings also qualifies at outfield. If you play in a league with single-position eligibility, he likely will only qualify for outfield.)

 

Third Base

Ryon Healy, OAK
2016 stats: 12 HR, 32 R, 33 RBI, 0 SB, .303/.336/.519 in 254 PA

It's hard to find sleepers at a position that runs so deep. Healy likely won't be starting fodder in shallow leagues or possibly even in deeper mixed leagues. He's showing a good deal of promise, though, especially as his Athletics teammates flounder around him, so it's difficult not to look his way.

Healy actually looks a lot like Owings in terms of plate approach, from his various swing and contact rates to his resultant plate discipline metrics (19.6% K, 4.4% BB). Healy is far from a burner on the base paths, though; at 6-foot-5, (allegedly) 225 pounds, he probably eats guys like Owings for breakfast.

So it won't surprise you, then, that he's on pace to hit 30 home runs over a full season. That'll play in shallow leagues, even if he doesn't walk and the league-wide power surge rolls over into 2017. With decent pull-side and fly ball rates, Healy at least swings it like a slugger. The hard-hit rate leaves something to be desired -- 28.6% is not only lower than league average, it's lower than Owings' -- so it'd be nice to see him barrel up a few more balls before buying into the 16% HR/FB rate.

With that said, even a little regression in that regard doesn't hurt his stock too much. A 23- to 25-homer pace will do from a third baseman I expected to drafted barely in the top-25 third basemen, if that high. And, again, despite the power surge this season, only a dozen third baseman have topped the 25-homer mark. It gives him the opportunity to be something like a poor man's Jake Lamb breakout, but for 2016. That's something of a discredit to Lamb -- his peripherals looked great last season, and he actually attempts stolen bases -- but next summer Healy could conjure fond memories of Lamb's incredibly first half of 2016.

 

Outfield

Alex Dickerson, SDP
2016 stats: 10 HR, 37 R, 37 RBI, 5 SB, .256/.228/.459 in 271 PA

I featured Dickerson last week at FanGraphs. It feels cheap to feature him again, but I like him so much more than other players in the same ownership range who will be wide-awake sleepers, such as Tyler Naquin and Keon Broxton. Frankly, I think Dickerson is better than both of them, if less flashy. He's far safer.

To touch on the finer points: outside of a suppressed BABIP, Dickerson looks a lot like an outfielding Kyle Seager. He might not have quite the power, but it's something he could (should) grow into, given it was his calling card when being drafted in the 3rd round of the 2011 draft. Meanwhile, the strong gains in contact skills he made at Triple-A this season carried over to the Major League level, resulting in an impressive power-plate discipline combination reminiscent of Maikel Franco. Franco has had his troubles this season, stemming mostly from a BABIP as equally marred as Dickerson's. But Dickerson's batted ball profile is much more authoritative and his speed much more impressive, which should help pull his batting average out of the depths.

His power pace right now is completely reasonable. Extrapolating his current line, and adjusting his BABIP to a league-average rate, we're looking at a player capable of slashing .280/.350/.470 with 20 home runs and a dozen stolen bases. If keep talking in terms of poor men: that's a poor man's (vintage) Michael Brantley.

 

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REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

NFL

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Braelon Allen

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Josh Allen

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Kyler Murray

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Logan Webb

on Track to Start Against Dodgers on Monday
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Leads by Example in Game 2 Win
Jakub Dobes

Rebounds After Loss Yet Again for Montreal
Rachaad White

Undervalued in Dynasty Leagues Despite a Path to Upside
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Sets Tone in Big Montreal Victory
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Overcomes Shooting Struggles Friday
Jake Tonges

Should by Now Be Rostered by Every Kittle Dynasty Manager
Anthony Edwards

Carries Heavy Usage in Defeat
Chig Okonkwo

a Clear Breakout Candidate in Washington
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Gets Pulled in Game 3 Loss on Friday
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Joins Historic Playoff Company
Mikal Bridges

Continues Postseason Surge with 23-Point Game
Aaron Jones Sr.

Still a Low-Cost, Short-Term Dynasty Target
Kelly Oubre Jr.

Keeps Scoring Role Alive
Romeo Doubs

' Buy Window Could Soon Be Wide Open
Joel Embiid

Held to 18 Points in 76ers Game 3 Loss
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Working With Training Staff This Offseason
Jacoby Brissett

in Communication With Cardinals Despite Skipping Workouts
Daniel Jones

Could Take Part in 7-on-7 Drills at OTAs
Tyler Glasnow

Dodgers Put Tyler Glasnow on Injured List With Back Spasms
Sam Merrill

Iffy for Game 3 on Saturday
Anthony Edwards

Rejoins Starting Lineup Friday
Kevin Huerter

Likely to Remain Out Saturday
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Considered Questionable for Saturday
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Ruled Out for Game 3 Against Lakers
Ayo Dosunmu

Cleared to Play Friday
Anthony Edwards

Available Friday Night
Joel Embiid

is Returning for Game 3 on Friday
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Undergoes Heel Surgery
Josh Hart

is Available to Play in Game 3
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is Downgraded to Out for Game 3 on Friday
Mitchell Robinson

is Returning for Game 3
Mats Zuccarello

Expected to Play Saturday
Joel Eriksson Ek

to Be a Game-Time Decision Saturday
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Still Out Saturday
Josh Manson

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Scratched for Game 3 Against Ducks
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Likely to Remain Out Friday
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Won't Play Friday
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Dynasty Ceiling Limited By Backfield Committee in Pittsburgh
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Marcus Mariota

Is Marcus Mariota Worth Stashing as an Injury Replacement in Dynasty Leagues?
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a Clear Sell-High Candidate for Dynasty Managers
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Taylor Wein in Position for Big Season on Oklahoma's Defensive Line
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Ready to Go Friday
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Set to Return Thursday
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Available Thursday
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Remains Out Thursday
Roman Anthony

Heading for the Injured List
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Sam Leavitt Expected to Be Full-Go for Fall Camp
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Nets Late Power-Play Goal in Losing Effort
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Emilio Pagan has Grade 2 Hamstring Strain, Expected to Miss 4-8 Weeks
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Listed as Scheduled Starter for Saturday Against Cleveland
Tyler Glasnow

Not Expected to Land on the Injured List
Framber Valdez

Suspension Reduced to Five Games
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Suspended Six Games
Tyler Glasnow

Exits Early on Wednesday With Back Pain
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Brauntae Johnson the Next Star in Notre Dame's Secondary?
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Ethan Barbour a Name to Know in Georgia's Tight End Room
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Payton Pierce Next Up at Linebacker for Ohio State
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Javin Gordon to Play Significant Role for Tennessee?
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Tanook Hines Stepping into WR1 Role for USC
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Rueben Owens II has "Star Potential" in Fourth Campaign
Brandon Woodruff

has Fluid Drained From his Right Shoulder
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to Resume Throwing on Saturday, Return Imminent?
Carlos Correa

to Have Season-Ending Ankle Surgery
Jacob Misiorowski

Listed as Friday's Probable Starter
Logan Webb

Dealing With Knee Discomfort
Carlos Correa

Expected to Miss Significant Time With Ankle Injury
Collin Morikawa

Withdraws From Truist Championship
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Carries Elite Form Into Quail Hollow
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Patrick Cantlay

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Returns to Action For Truist Championship
Justin Thomas

Searching for Consistency at Quail Hollow
Jordan Spieth

Looks to Break Through at Quail Hollow
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Brings Strong Form to Quail Hollow
Robert MacIntyre

a Steady Option at Truist Championship
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Akshay Bhatia

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Emilio Pagán

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Looks to Carry Dominance to Quail Hollow
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Mario Craver Enters No. 1 Wide Receiver Role for Marcel Reed
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LaNorris Sellers a Strong Rebound Candidate in 2026
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Cam Coleman Poised for Monster Year at Texas?
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Will Hammond Pushing to Be Ready for Week 1
Alex Fitzpatrick

Looking to Keep Up Ball-Striking Output at Quail Hollow
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Notre Dame Leads College Football in Returning Snaps
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Two Ole Miss Football Players Arrested, Charged with DUI
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Looks Solid on the Surface Heading to Charlotte
Chase Elliott

Earns his Second Texas Motor Speedway Victory
Denny Hamlin

Misses Out on Winning at Texas
Alex Bowman

Finishes Third for the Second Week in a Row at Texas
Tyler Reddick

Earns Seventh Top-Five Finish of the Season at Texas
Chris Buescher

Scores his First Career Texas Finish in the Top Five
CFB

Bryce Underwood in Better Situation Entering Sophomore Season
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Nico Iamaleava Emerging as Leader, Playmaker for UCLA
Jack Della Maddalena

Gets Dominated At UFC Perth
Carlos Prates

Shines At UFC Perth
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Suffers A First-Round TKO Loss
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Remains Unbeaten In The UFC
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Drops Decision At UFC Perth
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Wins Back-To-Back Fights
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Suffers First-Round TKO Loss
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RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF