🖥 TAP TO SAVE 50% WITH CODE THANKS
X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Early Deep Sleepers / Dynasty Stashes for 2017 (Part Two)

It's never too early to dream about next year. Whether you're looking for the perfect sneaky keeper or dynasty stash, or you're already eliminated from contention from your playoffs, there exists a smorgasbord of underowned players at every position ripe for the picking.

The premise is simple: identify players with very low ownership rates who have the potential to gain relevance in standard mixed formats. Low ownership rates serve as a proxy for general interest in players heading into next season; the lower the ownership rate, the lower that player will likely slip on draft day 2017.

Editor's Note: Purchase a full season NFL Premium Pass (including DFS Premium), and also get MLB Premium + DFS for free through the playoffs. Premium DFS research, lineup picks, expert lineups, tools and more. You can see screenshots of our NFL Premium and MLB Premium and DFS tools. What are you waiting for?

 

It's Never Too Early

This week will feature a shortstop, third baseman and outfielder. Next week will feature three starting pitchers. Each of the following players are owned in 10 percent or less of fantasy leagues, according to FleaFlicker.

 

Shortstop

Chris Owings, ARI
2016 stats: 4 HR, 48 R, 42 RBI, 18 SB, .274/.316/.415 in 439 PA

Owings isn't the gold standard of excellence in on-base percentage (OBP) leagues. With an 18.7% strikeout rate (K%) and 4.6% walk rate (BB%), he has a Starlin Castro feel to him, albeit with the home run and stolen base columns swapped. Accordingly, Owings doesn't immediately project to be a special bat, despite his status as a former 1st-round pick. He looks a lot like the player he demonstrated he was in the minor leagues, which is actually a compliment -- guys like Owings frequently don't pan out with his skill set. But, with an 89 wRC+, he is a decidedly below-average hitter.

He does a few things well, though. He mitigates his aversion to free trips to first base by hitting the ball well when he makes contact, running a .320 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) through his first 1,400-ish plate appearances. His elevated line drive rate (LD%), above-average infield fly ball rate (IFFB%), decent hard-hit rate (Hard%) and plus speed all support his perennially robust BABIP.

Speaking of speed: it's the second time in two years that Owings has surpassed the 15-steal threshold. It's nothing exemplary, but with power more plentiful than ever, stolen bases have become relatively scarce. Owings' 17 steals place him tied for 6th among shortstops, making him something like a poor man's Elvis Andrus (owned in 69% of leagues; NFBC ADP 7th among shortstops) or a normal man's Alcides Escobar (16%; 15th).

(Note: Owings also qualifies at outfield. If you play in a league with single-position eligibility, he likely will only qualify for outfield.)

 

Third Base

Ryon Healy, OAK
2016 stats: 12 HR, 32 R, 33 RBI, 0 SB, .303/.336/.519 in 254 PA

It's hard to find sleepers at a position that runs so deep. Healy likely won't be starting fodder in shallow leagues or possibly even in deeper mixed leagues. He's showing a good deal of promise, though, especially as his Athletics teammates flounder around him, so it's difficult not to look his way.

Healy actually looks a lot like Owings in terms of plate approach, from his various swing and contact rates to his resultant plate discipline metrics (19.6% K, 4.4% BB). Healy is far from a burner on the base paths, though; at 6-foot-5, (allegedly) 225 pounds, he probably eats guys like Owings for breakfast.

So it won't surprise you, then, that he's on pace to hit 30 home runs over a full season. That'll play in shallow leagues, even if he doesn't walk and the league-wide power surge rolls over into 2017. With decent pull-side and fly ball rates, Healy at least swings it like a slugger. The hard-hit rate leaves something to be desired -- 28.6% is not only lower than league average, it's lower than Owings' -- so it'd be nice to see him barrel up a few more balls before buying into the 16% HR/FB rate.

With that said, even a little regression in that regard doesn't hurt his stock too much. A 23- to 25-homer pace will do from a third baseman I expected to drafted barely in the top-25 third basemen, if that high. And, again, despite the power surge this season, only a dozen third baseman have topped the 25-homer mark. It gives him the opportunity to be something like a poor man's Jake Lamb breakout, but for 2016. That's something of a discredit to Lamb -- his peripherals looked great last season, and he actually attempts stolen bases -- but next summer Healy could conjure fond memories of Lamb's incredibly first half of 2016.

 

Outfield

Alex Dickerson, SDP
2016 stats: 10 HR, 37 R, 37 RBI, 5 SB, .256/.228/.459 in 271 PA

I featured Dickerson last week at FanGraphs. It feels cheap to feature him again, but I like him so much more than other players in the same ownership range who will be wide-awake sleepers, such as Tyler Naquin and Keon Broxton. Frankly, I think Dickerson is better than both of them, if less flashy. He's far safer.

To touch on the finer points: outside of a suppressed BABIP, Dickerson looks a lot like an outfielding Kyle Seager. He might not have quite the power, but it's something he could (should) grow into, given it was his calling card when being drafted in the 3rd round of the 2011 draft. Meanwhile, the strong gains in contact skills he made at Triple-A this season carried over to the Major League level, resulting in an impressive power-plate discipline combination reminiscent of Maikel Franco. Franco has had his troubles this season, stemming mostly from a BABIP as equally marred as Dickerson's. But Dickerson's batted ball profile is much more authoritative and his speed much more impressive, which should help pull his batting average out of the depths.

His power pace right now is completely reasonable. Extrapolating his current line, and adjusting his BABIP to a league-average rate, we're looking at a player capable of slashing .280/.350/.470 with 20 home runs and a dozen stolen bases. If keep talking in terms of poor men: that's a poor man's (vintage) Michael Brantley.

 

Live Expert Q&A Chats - Every Weekday @ 1 PM and 6 PM EST (DFS)

Fantasy Baseball Chat Room

[iflychat_embed id="c-55" hide_user_list="yes" hide_popup_chat="no" height="400px"]

 




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Mitchell Robinson

Tagged as Questionable for Thursday
Josh Hart

Uncertain for Thursday
Brandon Clarke

Active Against Timberwolves
Isaiah Hartenstein

Resting on Thursday Night
Ja Morant

Won't Play Wednesday Night
Jalen Suggs

Won't Play Against Denver
OG Anunoby

Listed as Questionable for Thursday
Karl-Anthony Towns

Iffy for Thursday
Tyler Herro

Unavailable Thursday
Anthony Edwards

Remains Sidelined on Wednesday
Ayo Dosunmu

Remains Sidelined Wednesday
Anthony Davis

Listed as Questionable for Thursday
James Harden

to Miss Thursday's Game
Davante Adams

Doubtful to Play Thursday Night
LaMelo Ball

Questionable to Play Thursday
Trae Young

Upgraded to Questionable on Injury Report
Ja Morant

Downgraded to Doubtful Wednesday
Matthew Tkachuk

Status Uncertain for Winter Classic
Tyson Foerster

Ruled Out for Five Months
Quinton Byfield

Back From One-Game Absence Wednesday
Gustav Forsling

Available Against Kings
Pavel Dorofeyev

Good to Go Wednesday
Shea Theodore

Out Against Devils
Jack Eichel

Misses First Game of the Season Wednesday
Brett Pesce

Back in Action Wednesday
Devin Neal

Ruled Out for Sunday
Christian Watson

"Should be Good" to Face the Bears on Saturday
Geno Smith

has "a Good Chance" to Return in Week 16
Saquon Barkley

Back at Practice on Wednesday
Brady Cook

Will Start Again in Week 16
Patrick Mahomes

Rehabbing ACL, LCL Tears
Rashee Rice

Won't Practice Due to Concussion
Marvin Harrison Jr.

to Take Part in Wednesday's Walkthrough Practice
Drake London

Day-to-Day, Will Practice on Wednesday
CFB

Jeremiyah Love Officially Heading to NFL Draft
Quinn Ewers

Making First Career Start in Week 16
Tua Tagovailoa

Being Benched by Dolphins
CFB

Jake Merklinger Leaving Tennessee for Transfer Portal
Jeremy Ruckert

Jets, Jeremy Ruckert Agree to a Two-Year Extension
Thatcher Demko

Shuts Out Rangers With 23 Saves
Macklin Celebrini

Notches Four Points in Tuesday's Win
Leon Draisaitl

Reaches Special Milestone During Four-Point Night
Shea Theodore

Questionable for Wednesday Night
Jack Eichel

Battling Illness
Darcy Kuemper

Placed on Injured Reserve
Brandon Montour

Hurt on Tuesday
Sam Merrill

Remains on Shelf Wednesday
Max Strus

Still Out Wednesday
Ayo Dosunmu

May Miss Another Game Wednesday
Brandon Clarke

Upgraded to Questionable on Injury Report
Cam Spencer

Unavailable Wednesday
Mike Trout

Angels Open to Mike Trout Playing Center Field in 2026
Saquon Barkley

Misses Practice With Stinger
RJ Harvey

Dealing With Rib Injury
Josh Jacobs

Intends to Play Against Bears on Saturday
Zach Bogosian

Misses Tuesday's Game
Marcus Johansson

Unavailable Tuesday
Artyom Levshunov

Scratched for Tuesday
Mathew Barzal

a Game-Time Call Tuesday
Joseph Woll

Returns to Action Tuesday
Mike Matheson

Won't Play on Tuesday
Bam Knight

Cardinals Place Bam Knight on Injured Reserve
CFB

Kansas State's Jayce Brown Intends to Transfer
CFB

Nation's Leading Passer Drew Mestemaker to Enter Transfer Portal
Justin Crawford

Phillies Planning to Start Justin Crawford in Center Field
CFB

Jayden Maiava Signs New Deal to Return to USC
CFB

Aidan Mizell Won't Return to Florida, Entering Transfer Portal
CFB

East Carolina Targeting Jordan Davis as Next Offensive Coordinator
Patrick Mahomes

Targeting Week 1 Return in 2026
CFB

Michigan QB Jadyn Davis Set to Enter Transfer Portal
CFB

Travis Williams Joining Texas A&M Defensive Staff
Darren Waller

Hauls in Two Touchdowns in Monday Night Loss
Rome Odunze

Considered Week-to-Week With Foot Injury
Davante Adams

Considered Week-to-Week With Hamstring Injury
CFB

Dylan Raiola Entering His Name into Transfer Portal
CFB

Cincinnati's Brendan Sorsby Plans to Transfer When Portal Opens
Adolis García

Adolis Garcia, Phillies Finalizing One-Year Deal on Monday
Brandon Royval

Suffers First-Round TKO Loss
CFB

Baylor, LSU, Miami Among Potential Suitors for DJ Lagway
CFB

Aidan Chiles Will Enter Transfer Portal
Manel Kape

Shines At UFC Vegas 112
Kevin Vallejos

Gets Second-Round Knockout Win
Giga Chikadze

Suffers His First Career Knockout Loss
CFB

Quarterback DJ Lagway Entering Transfer Portal
Cesar Almeida

Gets Dominated
Cezary Oleksiejczuk

Wins Sixth Fight In A Row
Morgan Charrière

Morgan Charriere Suffers First-Round Knockout Loss
Melquizael Costa

Gets First-Round Knockout Win
Marcus Buchecha

Still Winless In The UFC
Kennedy Nzechukwu

And Marcus Buchecha Fight To Draw
Lance Gibson jr

Lance Gibson Jr. Drops Decision In His UFC Debut
King Green

Gets Back In The Win Column
Kenley Jansen

Agrees to One-Year Deal With Tigers
Merrill Kelly

Returns to Diamondbacks on Two-Year Deal
Jorge Polanco

Agrees to Two-Year Deal With Mets
CFB

LaNorris Sellers to Return to South Carolina in 2026
CFB

Washington State Expected to Hire Kirby Moore as Next Head Coach
CFB

Kyle Whittingham Stepping Down as Utah Head Coach
Manel Kape

Set For UFC Vegas 112 Main Event
Brandon Royval

An Underdog At UFC Vegas 112
Kevin Vallejos

Set For His Third UFC Fight
Giga Chikadze

In Dire Need Of Victory
Cesar Almeida

Set To Welcome Cezary Oleksiejczuk To The UFC
Cezary Oleksiejczuk

Set To Make His UFC Debut
Maikel Garcia

Royals Agree on Five-Year Extension
Melquizael Costa

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Morgan Charrière

Morgan Charriere Looks to Win Second Consecutive Fights
Marcus Buchecha

Looks To Bounce Back
CFB

Sherrone Moore Charged with Home Invasion, Among Other Charges
CFB

Freddie Kitchens Fired from North Carolina Coaching Staff

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP