RADIO
Dominick Petrillo looks at possible breakout candidates at the running back position for 2020 fantasy football leagues.
Breakouts happen every season for fantasy football. Sometimes they are expected and other times they are complete surprises. If you have one of these players, it is even more exciting than hitting on a first-round pick. If you are going against one of these players, it is like drafting David Johnson in the first round. Either way, they bring your emotions to the forefront.
Some of these players were sleepers just last season. Some of them started their ascent last season and will only continue it in 2020. Whether the player falls into category A or category B does not matter. What matters is getting that player onto your team, so he is helping you.
As we look at the running back position, it is important to realize this is the position with the most injuries throughout the season. This means that as good as someone may be at picking players, even they cannot account for a season-ending injury. It is also important to note that most if not all teams are going to a committee back system. This means as good as these players may perform, they are not likely to get the rushing volume of a player from just 10 years ago. Luckily, a lot of these players now also catch the ball, something not seen much a decade ago. Let's look at some players set to truly breakout in 2020. Of course, as with all of these early-season predictions, free agency and the draft could have a major effect on these and all players.
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Austin Ekeler, Los Angeles Chargers
In a league of uncertainties, one thing is clear. If you pay a running back, you can expect him to get the ball. Of course, this excludes Todd Gurley II.
With the four-year, $24.5 million contracts signed by Ekeler, he is ticketed for lead back duties in 2020. Melvin Gordon III is now a Denver Bronco after he played his hand last season and lost badly.
In 2019, Ekeler had only 132 rushes on the season. This was over 70 rushes lower than any other player who finished as a top-five RB last season for fantasy. He also finished with only three rushing touchdowns. He did this damage, or lack thereof, behind a terrible offensive line in Los Angeles which they hope to improve this offseason. It may have already improved a bit with the trade with Carolina for Trai Turner.
The real key to the success of Ekeler is his impressive pass-catching abilities. In his three seasons in the NFL, he has 158 receptions. This was punctuated in 2019 by a season of 92 receptions for 993 yards and eight touchdowns. Not only did the receiving numbers not go down after the return of Gordon in Week 5, they actually went up as this became his primary role in the offense.
With Philip Rivers out, the team will turn to either Tyrod Taylor or a rookie behind center. Either way, they will rely on Ekeler to be a key component of what the team does and its success on the field. With an improved offensive line and a new quarterback, look for Ekeler to be a player who repeats a top-six fantasy finish, maybe even higher should he get to 200 carries along with his 90-reception potential.
Marlon Mack, Indianapolis Colts
Everyone loved Mack and the Colts offense last preseason. Then Andrew Luck retired and the whole season went to hell. Despite this, as well as missing two games, Mack still gathered up 1,091 yards and eight touchdowns on 247 carries for the Colts.
In 2020, Indianapolis should be more settled at the quarterback position with Philip Rivers now the team's signal-caller. Rivers has a comfort level with the coaching staff, having worked with Frank Reich in his San Diego days. Besides the comfort level, the offensive line for the Colts is arguably the best in the NFL. For a pocket passer like Rivers, this is important as he will have the time to find his guys. Marlon Mack will be one of those guys.
While Mack is not a proficient pass-catching back, this helps a bit for him to break out. He is a good candidate to sneakily gain his 1,000 yards and possibly get to double-digit touchdowns with a better quarterback. He will also slide a bit in drafts as he is not a sexy name who is a key cog in the passing game like a Christian McCaffrey or Austin Ekeler.
Whereas those players are going to be taken in the first or second round, you should be able to get Mack in at least the third and very likely the fourth round. Not only does this limit the downside of a crash it also gives you a stronger team as he could be your RB2 with a player like Ekeler or McCaffrey to go along with a top-tier wide receiver.
The likelihood of Mack failing in value is low. The offensive line as stated is great and the quarterback position has been upgraded. The only thing keeping him from truly busting out to this point is injury. He has missed eight games in his first three seasons. Unfortunately, injuries are a part of football. But I would much rather have a fourth-round pick who has missed eight games in three seasons than take an even greater chance on a high first-round pick who has missed almost an entire season and struggled to come back the following season.
Miles Sanders, Philadelphia Eagles
The committee back of all committee backs in 2019. Whether it was Jordan Howard or Boston Scott alongside him, the Eagles were steadfast to their committee. This may change in the coming season.
The Boston Scott story was nice. He was a great play in DFS late in the season. But he was used out of need, not talent. This means while he has room on the team, his role will not be as solid as you may think. Add to this the departure of Howard, who signed with the Miami Dolphins last month, and a breakout is visible for Miles Sanders.
In his rookie season, it took a while for Sanders to catch on in the Philadelphia offense When he did catch on it was more so due to his hands in the receiving game. Coming out of Penn State, no one knew if he was a three-down back. This is said for most college backs as they are not utilized the same way in college as they are in the NFL. He showed that, like his predecessor in happy valley Saquon Barkley, he too has the hands to be a three-down back.
Playing in 16 games and starting 11, Sanders still had 50 receptions on 63 targets for 509 yards and three touchdowns. In a split backfield with Howard and Scott, he also managed 818 yards on 179 rushes. This is a fine rookie season and showed the potential for him to be a workhorse back.
He is not as big as Derrick Henry and not as explosive as Christian McCaffrey, but he has a bit of both to him. This makes him a great pick in the third round of fantasy drafts and even the second if you really want him. He has never had the injury risk of others and for those worried about tread in college lingering to the pros, remember, he was behind Barkley, so he only played one year as the starter in college.
Devin Singletary, Buffalo Bills
Singletary is the poster boy for the NFL Scouting Combine being overrated as a measurement. If his 4.6 40-yard dash time did not scare you off, his small frame at 5’7" probably did. And this is what we call overreaction.
As we finish up talking about players who look to break out, we turn to yet another young player. This, of course, is because older players have either broken out or are what they are. Marlon Mack and Austin Ekeler are both entering their fourth seasons in the NFL. Both Sanders and Singletary head into their second. This is especially important at the running back position where 30 is pretty much the cut-off. Unlike receivers and quarterbacks who play until the mid to late 30s, a running back is on a short-term plan and has a very limited peak to speak of.
Devin Singletary could be the next of these young guys to gain a foothold and carry a team. He has solid catching ability and with Frank Gore unlikely to return, should have the backfield to himself. At least for the most part.
Another key that plays in his favor? Josh Allen. Sure, Allen is not the most accurate thrower of the ball. But he is a runner. This helps the run game a lot. Defenses can not just lockdown on the running back as they will get demolished by a good running quarterback. Lamar Jackson was a large factor in the success of Mark Ingram in Baltimore in 2019. The same will be true for Singletary in Buffalo in 2020.
Add to this the team wanting to run the ball behind a litany of new linemen and the opportunity will also be there for him to be successful.
Of all the players listed, Singletary will likely be the last one to be drafted. Deservedly so. Playing in only 12 games due to a concussion, Singletary only carried the ball 151 times. While this is 19 more than Ekeler, his receiving numbers were not the same only catching 29 balls for 194 yards compared to Ekeler’s 92 for 993. While he also did not reach the 1.000 yards of Mack or even the 800 of Sanders, this was again, due to the four games missed. In the games he did play, his 5.1 yards/rush was the best of all of the players listed here.
Much like Marlon Mack, I would not want Singletary as my RB1. But as an RB2 in the fourth or fifth round he makes a wonderful draft pick. He will easily be a top-20 back this coming season and has the upside to finish as a top-10 back, far outdoing his draft price.
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