Dynasty Tiered Rankings and Analysis (Wide Receiver)

We realize that dynasty football leagues are active all year-round. At RotoBaller, we are committed to providing you with the latest information at all times. Now that the 2019 NFL Draft is over, we assembled our rankings team to give you our latest fantasy football rankings for dynasty leagues. Our rankings also include tiers which provide a more detailed breakdown on which players to target for your rosters, along with the players that you should avoid. These rankings are updated continuously and should be used as a primary source when you enter a dynasty startup draft or to evaluate trade options in-season.

This article will take a look at the dynasty rankings and tiers for the wide receiver position. The deepest of all positions, it's possible to find value even toward the lower end of the rankings. Then again, an elite young receiver is usually the lynchpin of a strong dynasty squad, so choosing the right WR to hang your hat on is crucial. Former stalwart Antonio Brown has slid out of the top tier, while a new crop of young receivers like Kenny Golladay, D.J. Moore, and Calvin Ridley are moving up to WR2 status in some leagues. Ranking this year's crop of rookie receivers proved to be a daunting task given the parity of these prospects. How did our staff value players like D.K. Metcalf, Marquise Brown, or J.J. Arcega-Whiteside?

All references to dynasty leagues assume you are playing in a 12-team, PPR dynasty league. As always, dynasty rankings are fluid and can change often. Let's get to the rankings!

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Dynasty WR Rankings

Tier 1

DeAndre Hopkins, Odell Beckham Jr., Michael Thomas, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Davante Adams, Mike Evans

No surprise that Nuk occupies the top spot. He also ranks as our second overall dynasty player. Beckham used to claim that honor but the fact he's missed a full season's worth of games over the last two years has given some owners pause. A move from the Giants to the Browns can only help. That is a sentence I truly never thought I would type in my lifetime...

With AB gone, JJSS takes up residence in the top tier and is a top-10 overall player in our dynasty rankings. This will raise many eyebrows, as some aren't ready to proclaim him one of the top fantasy receivers just yet. I'll admit it surprised me a little to see him over Davante Adams. Adams has scored double-digit touchdowns three straight years, is tied to one of the best quarterbacks in the league and finished seventh in receiving yards last year. He finished sixth in receptions, tied with Smith-Schuster. The question is if JuJu can go for 111 catches and 1,426 yards sharing the field with Antonio Brown, what could he do without him? He may see more targets but he also may see tougher coverage. Either way, the fact he's a full four years younger than Adams is the tipping point that puts it in his favor.

Tier 2

Antonio Brown, Julio Jones, Keenan Allen, Amari Cooper, A.J. Green, Stefon Diggs, Brandin Cooks, TY Hilton, Adam Thielen, Kenny Golladay

A year ago, Brown was the third dynasty receiver in our and nearly everyone else's rankings. The move to Oakland and curious off-field behavior has dropped him to seventh and out of the top tier. At 30 years old, he's still got plenty of football left in him but he will have to develop a rapport with Derek Carr first. Out of the top 10 receivers on this list, Brown is the one best suited for teams in win-now mode. I suspect he'll be the subject of many dynasty trades this preseason.

A.J. Green is also of advanced age for a professional athlete at the ripe age of 30 and is coming off a season where he played just nine games. For that reason, he's slid down to the 12th spot. This seems like the perfect time to buy-low, as he is reportedly healthy and ready for training camp and finally has a new coach to breathe life into the offense. We don't know how the Zac Taylor era will begin but it can't be worse than how the Marvin Lewis epoch ended.

Diggs or Thielen? While Thielen was more productive last year, collecting 352 more yards, Diggs only saw five fewer targets despite missing a game. Of bigger concern is the fact Thielen was far less effective in the second half, averaging 59.6 fewer yards per game from Week 9-16, which is less than half as much as the first half. He's also a full three years older than Diggs, which makes the decision that much easier.

If you want my take on Kenny Golladay's dynasty value, just watch this. He is up to a mid-third round ADP in startups, which seems pretty high for someone on Detroit's suddenly conservative offense. There are better values in the tier below.

Tier 3

Cooper Kupp, DJ Moore, Robert Woods, Allen Robinson, Chris Godwin, Corey Davis, Calvin Ridley

My initial reactions upon seeing this tier is that D.J. Moore and Calvin Ridley are undervalued and I don't think I could get myself to take Corey Davis over any of these players. Moore is just 22 and coming off a nice rookie season where he averaged 14.3 yards per reception despite playing on a conservative offense with an injured Cam Newton. He will only get better, especially as he's already entrenched as the WR1 in Carolina. He's in a better position to succeed than Golladay, as you probably heard already.

Davis is super-talented and will remain firmly in the Titans' plans despite this year's selection of A.J. Brown. The idea was to get Davis some help, not find a possible replacement. That said, I have zero interest in this receiving corps as long as Marcus Mariota (or Ryan Tannehill, god forbid) is the quarterback. Mariota has averaged 214.4 passing yards per game over his four-year career. The progress just isn't there and the emergence of Derrick Henry late last season isn't going to make this offense any less conservative.

Tier 4

Tyreek Hill, Jarvis Landry, Christian Kirk, Alshon Jeffery, Sammy Watkins, Courtland Sutton, Tyler Boyd, Will Fuller, N'Keal Harry, Tyler Lockett, Mike Williams

Time to address the elephant in the room. Tyreek Hill's future is still unknown but it seems likely some sort of suspension is coming. A year-long suspension a la Adrian Peterson (who committed a similarly brutal act) would wipe him off the re-draft rankings but shouldn't really hurt his dynasty value too much. Some might see this as a buy-low opportunity for teams that are rebuilding. Others might refuse to consider owning him ever again based on moral conviction. The bottom line is that he is in limbo right now but it doesn't look good, so we've conservatively dropped him outside the top 50 overall players, with a further decline likely to happen.

The more interesting question from a football perspective is what does this mean for Sammy Watkins? If he becomes the featured wideout of choice in Kansas City, could he deliver on the promise that made him the fourth overall pick of the 2014 NFL Draft? Although he has five years of pro experience, he's just 25 years old and has as much breakaway speed as any player in the league outside of maybe Hill. Maybe John Ross, but I'm not sure that really counts anymore. Of course, Watkins will have to stay healthy for any of this to matter. He hasn't played a full 16-game season since he was a rookie, missing a total of 18 games, including six last year. This seems like the best time to make an offer for Watkins or hold if you're already an owner; just make sure you have solid depth behind him.

Christian Kirk was a player on the rise after flashing on occasion his rookie year, despite a putrid offense and late-season injury. Now, the introduction of a rookie QB and head coach, along with three new receivers competing for playing time could throw a wrench into things. It might be best to look at 2020 for a chance to invest in Kirk, as he'll be entering his third year behind a more experienced quarterback and won't have Larry Fitzgerald around to compete for targets (we assume).

N'Keal Harry is going to get a lot of attention in dynasty startups. It wouldn't be surprising to see him selected inside the top 25 at his position, although we currently have him at WR32. My personal ranking is a bit lower on Harry than most because of team context, crazy as that sounds. While his redraft value certainly should be highest among all rookie wideouts, we don't really think Tom Brady is going to play forever, do we?

Tier 5

Robby Anderson, Dante Pettis, Sterling Shepard, Marvin Jones, Anthony Miller, Michael Gallup, Keke Coutee

We were all excited about Dante Pettis as fantasy prospect a few short weeks ago. The selection of Deebo Samuel and Jalen Hurd now throws into question whether Pettis will ever be a featured player in this offense or simply a stretch-the-field player who occasionally spends time in the slot. Samuel is not a sure thing by any means but this offense will likely spread the ball around, limiting the upside of all its receivers.

It would seem that Shepard was the big winner this offseason now that OBJ is out of New York. His target share is practically guaranteed to go up this year but is that enough to make him a riser? He still has Eli Manning at QB and the backup plan is Daniel Jones. Yeesh

Of the second-year receivers at the bottom of this tier, I'm bullish on them all as dynasty assets but most intrigued by Gallup in 2019. A 48.5% catch rate and two-TD total may leave a bad first impression but he ended with a strong six-catch, 119-yard performance in the playoff loss to the Rams. Moreover, his 13.9 aDoT ranked 22nd among all receivers with at least 20 targets last year. Amari Cooper's presence clearly helped in the second half and should continue to give Gallup plenty of opportunities to develop into a playmaker under newly-anointed franchise quarterback, Dak Prescott.

Tier 6

A.J. Brown, Tre'Quan Smith, Dede Westbrook, DK Metcalf, Golden Tate, Julian Edelman, James Washington, Parris Campbell, Marquise Brown

Think landing spot isn't everything for fantasy purposes? Marquise Brown was the first receiver taken in this year's NFL Draft and topped the pre-draft rankings for many experts at WR, yet his dynasty ranking is lower than three other rookies taken. Parris Campbell wasn't even projected to be a Day 2 pick, but his place on a potent Colts offense puts him one spot ahead of Hollywood Brown for the time being. Most of this is based on pessimism regarding Lamar Jackson's passing ability. I'm confident he's better than he showed in his rookie year and will be better now that he has a full offseason to better learn the playbook.

I didn't fall in love with D.K. Metcalf after the combine, I fell in love with him after he was taken by the Seahawks. We didn't know Doug Baldwin was on the precipice of retirement then but that only boosts his value further. Metcalf belongs a full tier higher based on his tremendous upside and the promise of a high snap count as a rookie. Doubters are concerned about his route-running ability; we'll see how quickly he progresses in training camp.

Tier 7

Marquise Goodwin, John Brown, Curtis Samuel, Tyrell Williams, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, DaeSean Hamilton, Deebo Samuel, Hakeem Butler, JJ Arcega-Whiteside, Andy Isabella, Quincy Enunwa, Antonio Callaway, Mecole Hardman, Robert Foster, DeVante Parker, Emmanuel Sanders, Geronimo Allison

Here we find a mix of veterans on the decline, at least in perceived value, and incoming rookies with an uncertain role. Goodwin and Brown are both speedsters who can stretch the field and make big plays but now find themselves in a worse position to see targets. Goodwin could be the de facto WR1 in Kyle Shanahan's offense but the team drafted a pair of receivers and has two good pass-catching running backs joining the fray. Brown will definitely catch some bombs from Josh Allen but what else will he bring to the table? Robert Foster does the same thing pretty well and this offense doesn't promise to be the most dynamic in general. While it can't be worse than what he did with Lamar Jackson at QB in Baltimore, Brown is not an exciting player to own.

Speaking of the Niners, Deebo Samuel is ranked ahead of several of his fellow rookies based on the premise that his offense will do him favors. That's not a foregone conclusion, as the team has a plethora of weapons to spread the ball around to and could use him more as a possession receiver while gashing the defense with George Kittle across the middle and Goodwin deep. Samuel could be a nice long-term hold but dynasty owners need to not get carried away due to landing spot.

Even as a long-time Dolfan, I'm not sure what to make of that receiving corps. It was a mild shock to see Parker re-signed after four disappointing seasons where he averaged three receptions and 41.1 yards per game. Blame the coaching, blame the quarterbacks, blame injuries. Any way you slice it, he has been a huge bust and it's not as if we have a small sample size. The better value lies one tier lower, where explosive but inconsistent Kenny Stills and Albert Wilson reside. Those two are more logical to employ in best-ball leagues than dynasty.

The running narrative post-draft is that Mecole Hardman is Tyreek Hill 2.0 and will basically assume that role if/when Hill gets suspended. I'm not saying it's impossible but I wouldn't invest based on that assumption.

Tier 8

Josh Reynolds, Donte Moncrief, Devin Funchess, Kenny Stills, Albert Wilson, Nelson Agholor, Marqise Lee, Zay Jones, DeSean Jackson, Larry Fitzgerald, Equanimeous St. Brown, Jamison Crowder, Adam Humphries

Few players are as divisive as Donte Moncrief in the fantasy community. Some truthers still exist (he hasn't had the right opportunity!) while others call him the most overrated WR of the last decade, aside from maybe Devin Funchess. There won't be a better opportunity than joining a Pittsburgh team that threw the ball more than any other last year and just lost its All-Pro receiver. If you believe Moncrief has the ability to be a fantasy factor, even if only in the red zone, now's the time to acquire him.

Does ESB really belong a full 23 spots below MVS? Valdes-Scantling was the first of the Packers rookie receivers to make an impact but St. Brown had a trio of five-target games and actually outgained MVS from Week 10 on despite missing the final game of the season. It might be wise to buy super-low on a young player who could be the WR3 on Green Bay, possibly higher if Geronimo Allison can't stay healthy.

Top Value Plays in Remaining Tiers

Kelvin Harmon, Tier 9 - Not as heralded as some of the other rookies in this year's class, Harmon could be one of the most productive right away. Needless to say, the Redskins' receivers don't light the world on fire. Jamison Crowder is gone and Josh Doctson just had his fifth-year option declined, which means he probably isn't in the team's long-term plans. Harmon could start right away, assuming he beats out Terry McLaurin that is.

David Moore, Tier 10 - With Doug Baldwin out of Seattle, Moore could find himself as the starting receiver in the X position. Tyler Lockett is slated for the slot so Moore will play opposite Metcalf. Then again, the Seahawks could go with Jaron Brown or another rookie receiver like Gary Jennings could emerge. There is risk here but at a nearly free cost, Moore seems like one of the top buys outside the top 200 players.

Deon Cain, Tier 10 - A dark horse to claim fantasy relevance this year, Cain could have made a splash last year on a thin Colts WR corps if not for a torn ACL before the season. Many will cling to Parris Campbell several rounds earlier but Cain is the one who has the chance to shine and will cost absolutely nothing.

Hunter Renfrow, Tier 13 - Another Clemson Tiger... As our WR142, we're not putting a lot of stock into Renfrow succeeding at the next level despite a decorated college career. A 4.59 40-time and lack of size make him a possession receiver at best. That said, if we think that Andy Isabella is a top-60 receiver just because he runs faster, that seems to be selling Renfrow short. He could at least be another Cole Beasley, if that does anything for you.