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A quarterback’s fantasy value can change as much during the offseason as it can during the regular season.
The offseason has been kinder to some signal callers than others. While many quarterbacks have had their receiving corps and/or coaching staffs upgraded, others have watched their favorite targets depart via free agency or seen their organizations acquire other quarterbacks poised to steal their jobs and plant them on the sidelines.
Here are three quarterbacks whose fantasy stock is rising in dynasty leagues, and three quarterbacks whose stock is falling this offseason.
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Stock Rising
Blake Bortles, Jacksonville Jaguars (13.07)
2016 Stats: 3,905 passing yards, 23 TD, 16 INT, 359 rushing yards, 3 TD
Bortles was one of fantasy football’s biggest disappointments in 2016. All of his numbers across the board were way down compared to 2015. He threw a dozen fewer touchdown passes and for 523 less yards when fantasy owners assumed he was going to take a step towards being one of the top-five quarterbacks in the fantasy world.
There is hope that Jacksonville’s new head coach Doug Marrone will right Bortles’ wrongs, though. In the final two games of 2016 when Marrone was installed as interim head coach, Bortles had back-to-back 300-yard games (he only threw for 300 yards three times in the other 14 contests). That bodes well for Bortles improving with Marrone running the team for a full season.
What also bodes well is that Bortles may actually have a rushing attack to take the pressure off of him. Jacksonville drafted LSU standout Leonard Fournette in the first round, so any semblance of a rushing threat should help keep defenses honest and allow Bortles some passing lanes. Jacksonville has been ranked 21st, 27th and 22nd in rushing offense in Bortles’ three seasons.
Deshaun Watson, Houston Texans (12.02)
2016 Stats: N/A
Watson had no trouble dismantling Alabama’s staunch defense in the BCS Championship Game this past January (420 passing yards, three TD tosses), so the NFL should be a piece of cake, right? Houston did not draft Watson with the 12th pick overall this past April to use him as Tom Savage insurance. Watson will be the future franchise quarterback, and his future is bright and could happen sooner than later.
Houston’s carousel of quarterbacks has been as mediocre as a New York strip streak that is overcooked and underseasoned. Watson could/should win the starting job during training camp, and if he does he has DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller at receiver, the underrated C.J. Fiedorowicz at tight end, and Lamar Miller anchoring the backfield. A rookie quarterback could not ask for a better situation to be placed in.
Ryan Tannehill, Miami Dolphins (N/A)
2016 Stats: 2,995 passing yards, 19 TD, 12 INT, 164 rushing yards, 1 TD
Tannehill has been underwhelming as a fantasy QB in his five seasons as Miami’s starting quarterback. He has no 30-TD or 4,500-yard years to his credit, and he has never ventured into the same fantasy zip code as the likes of Tom Brady, Drew Brees or Aaron Rodgers, plus he has been passed on the fantasy cheat sheets by phenoms like Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota.
But Miami head coach Adam Gase helped Tannehill set career-highs in completion percentage, QB rating and yards per attempt last season, so the 28-year-old Tannehill’s fantasy value is tending upward. Add in that his top trio at WR (Jarvis Landry, Kenny Stills, DeVante Parker) is returning and that the Dolphins signed touchdown-loving tight end Julius Thomas to supply him with another weapon and things look to be lining up for Tannehill to have the best season of his career in 2017.
Stock Falling
Carson Palmer, Arizona Cardinals (14.04)
2016 Stats: 4,233 passing yards, 26 TD, 14 INT, 38 rushing yards, 0 TD
The 37-year-old Palmer still has fantasy value left in his rifle right arm judging by the 4,233 passing yards and 26 touchdowns he threw for last season, but the writing is on the wall that his days of being dependable in fantasy leagues are winding down. Palmer’s touchdown tosses went down while his interceptions went up in 2016 compared to 2015, and Father Time is probably not going to give him a magic elixir to help Palmer have another four productive seasons.
Drew Stanton and Blaine Gabbert are not up-and-coming quarterbacks that will challenge Palmer for playing time, and workhorse back David Johnson will keep helping Palmer in a multitude of ways. Palmer is sitting on retirement’s front stoop, though, as he did not announce until February that he would continue playing. Plus his favorite receiver, Larry Fitzgerald, might hang it up after this season, too. It is hard to fathom Palmer as a quarterback you can hang onto long-term in a dynasty league.
Mike Glennon, Chicago Bears (N/A)
2016 Stats: 75 passing yards, 1 TD, 0 INT, 0 rushing yards, 0 TD
Glennon is a classic dropback passer with a big, tall body. He is not going to rack up rushing yards like he is Cam Newton and will never make throws on the run a la Aaron Rodgers, but during a small sample size of starts during his days with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers he looked like he could be a serviceable starter. That’s why Glennon was given $45 million by Chicago to solidify the squad’s quarterback position, or so we thought.
After the Bears snagged Mitchell Trubisky with the second pick overall in the draft, Glennon’s future became murkier than the water surrounding the Exxon Valdez. Instead of Glennon being the sure starter, now he may have to battle Trubisky in training camp to win the job. At best, Glennon will be installed as the starter at the beginning of the season, but is a couple bad outings away from watching Trubisky run the offense. To top it all off, top target Alshon Jeffrey signed with the Philadelphia Eagles, and Chicago chose to replace him with past-his-prime Victor Cruz, annual disappointment Kendall Wright and Pittsburgh washout Markus Wheaton. Have fun in Chicago, Mike!
Alex Smith, Kansas City Chiefs (N/A)
2016 Stats: 3,502 passing yards, 15 TD, 8 INT, 134 rushing yards, 5 TD
Everyone’s favorite game manager might have fewer games to manage in his future. Kansas City traded up in the first round of this year’s draft to select Patrick Mahomes, and the Chiefs did not do that because he will hand the ball off to Spencer Ware better. Smith and his short passes and playoff losses are on borrowed time in K.C.
Smith will probably end up being a cap casualty in 2018 once Kansas City feels Mahomes is ready to take over the team. The Chiefs have more salary cap problems than the New York Jets have finding a quality quarterback. That is Kansas City released No. 1 receiver Jeremy Maclin, which also does no favors for Smith’s fantasy value heading into the 2017 season. Smith cannot be counted on helping any fantasy team in the future with all of this going against him.
