RADIO
Gage Bridgford evaluates a dynasty football sleepers heading into the 2020 season. These players could be buy-low values or draft targets in startup leagues.
With redraft leagues, your fantasy eason ends when the regular season ends. With dynasty leagues, the season never ends. Now is the time of the year that everyone is preparing to analyze rookies, and we need to start looking ahead to next year.
Your waivers are likely constantly running, so you need to be looking at some dart throws that could cash and hit big for you next season. Some perfect examples of these candidates last year were DJ Chark and Darren Waller.
Which players are going to fit that mold next year? That's what we're looking at today. These guys are either in a new situation thanks to a coaching change, or they're getting a new opportunity because of some retirements. Whatever the case, these guys will likely cost next-to-nothing to acquire, and they could turn into that winning lottery ticket.
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Drew Lock (QB, DEN)
Last season, Lock started five games, and he went 4-1 in those games. He finished with a touchdown: interception ratio of 7:3, and he was able to add a little bit of value with his legs with 18 carries for 72 yards. Lock played out the year with a Denver team that couldn't seem to get out of their own way at times which resulted in many close losses. Five of them to be exact. The Broncos have this reputation of being a run-first, grind-it-out team with their defense, and that's why Lock's price is so juicy.
His average ranking in Superflex has him outside the top 30 among quarterbacks, which is just absurd. He's ranked behind guys like Tom Brady and Philip Rivers who could see their careers end within the next calendar year. His price is super low, and I'm not sure why. The Broncos offensive line is getting healthy after missing starting right tackle Morgan Moses for a full season. Wide receiver Courtland Sutton is also poised for a big year after his breakout last season.
Denver is also in a great position to add a talented wide receiver this offseason in a deep wide receiver draft class. Lock is going to have a lot of weapons to utilize, and it's going to be really cheap for you to add him. I think he could finish within the top 15 at the position next year as long as they get a consistent second wide receiver to keep Sutton clean. Tight end Noah Fant also is a decent pass-catching option up the seam.
Ronald Jones II (RB, TB)
I think this is a pick that's going to surprise some people, and that's the point. After averaging just 1.9 yards per carry during an abysmal rookie season, he stepped that up in a big way with a 4.2 yards per carry average during his second year. He also caught 31 of his 40 targets, which was 31 more than he had during his entire rookie campaign, for 309 yards. His touchdown total increased from one to six, and he'll be playing his second season in a Bruce Arians offense that never stops throwing.
Quarterback Jameis Winston is gone and Tom Brady will be under center in Tampa. That further boosts the stock of Jones who becomes a safety valve out of the backfield for Brady, who has traditionally thrown a lot of passes to his running backs. Additionally, looking back at the Arians offense, running back David Johnson had the best season of his career when Arians was force-feeding him touches as a pass-catcher.
He's currently ranked outside the top 30 of running backs despite being his team's starter. Just like Lock, the cost to acquire him is going to be so low because people are viewing him as an afterthought. He's the perfect example of a dart-throw you can acquire by getting him as a throw-in in a trade. You target another player, and you ask for Jones as just another piece to balance the deal out when you was your main focus all along.
Christian Kirk (WR, ARI)
Entering the 2019 season, Christian Kirk was one of the chief breakout targets, but he dealt with a nagging injury throughout the back half of the season that killed his ability to build chemistry with rookie quarterback Kyler Murray. As a result of that sad end to the season, Kirk's price has gone way down. He's ranked right around 30th among wide receivers in dynasty formats right now, and it would not surprise me to see him finish within the top-25 wide receivers next year.
Kirk had five games of 10 or more targets. He caught 68 passes, but he had just three touchdowns. All three of those touchdowns came in the team's Week 10 loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. For comparison, his teammates David Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald both caught four touchdowns last year. Kirk has big-play ability, and you have to expect that to regress. Especially when you consider, among the 34 players that caught more passes than him last season, only three caught fewer touchdowns than Kirk.
Murray showed some positive production last season en route to winning offensive rookie of the year. In the second year of the Kliff Kingsbury system, they'll be looking for more ways to spread the field and improve their offensive production. More plays and production out of your rookie quarterback is what results in more out of your wide receivers. Kirk's stock took a hit, and it wouldn't hurt to put out a feeler to his owner in your league just to see what the price would take to get him.
Ian Thomas (TE, CAR)
This is the one that may not be as big of a sleeper, but he's also the one to have the most confidence in. The Panthers have moved on from longtime starter Greg Olsen, now with the Seattle Seahawks, and they're handing the keys to Ian Thomas. Thomas has shown the ability to be productive in the absence of Olsen in the past, and he's now the full starter. Under new head coach Matt Rhule, with Teddy Bridgewater now the starting quarterback, Thomas can become a focal point of this offense to help move towards the future.
Thomas was quieted last season with Olsen healthy for the majority of the year, but he's just two years removed from a productive rookie season where he caught 36 passes for 333 yards and two touchdowns. He's shown a strong ability to find the first-down marker with 30 of his 52 career catches going for first downs.
Bridgewater likes to keep the ball close to the line of scrimmage, meaning Thomas could see a lot of work as a possession receiver. This is a sleeper that comes down to opportunity. He's the full-time starter, and there is no other guy in his way. At a spot like tight end that already has so few proven contributors, Thomas is a good option to target for his upside.
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