Trade Them in Dynasty Before It's Too Late

September 24, 2021

Pierre Camus evaluates players to consider trading away in dynasty leagues after Week 2 of the 2021 fantasy football season. These players are sell candidates and may have declining values.

Last week, I discussed players worth acquiring in dynasty leagues before their stock continued to rise. You can read that article here, as it's still relevant in the dynasty realm.

This time, we'll do the opposite and examine a few players to consider moving on from before the rug is pulled from underneath you and their value plummets. Don't view this as advice that you "must sell now" because there is never a situation where you absolutely have to rid yourself of a player unless he suffers a career-threatening injury or unrecoverable legal issue. Dynasty trades are always about maximizing value, so trading a player get comparable value before it declines is simply a smart decision as a dynasty league GM.

This also isn't to be confused with a list of players to "sell-high" on because not all are at peak value. I would personally move on from Clyde Edwards-Helaire given the chance but his value is at a low point right now, so it's best to wait until he does something (assuming he actually does). It would also be foolish to put Trevor Lawrence on the trading block since you spent a high first-round pick on him, most likely the 1.01 if you play Superflex. Better days will come, especially once Urban Meyer decides to quit due to "personal reasons." For now, let's focus on reasonable players to move on from in dynasty, including one other Jaguar.

Josh Jacobs - RB, Las Vegas Raiders

I'm old enough that it still weirds me out to see Las Vegas next to Raiders. I'm also old enough to remember when Josh Jacobs was a first-round fantasy pick in 2020.

He was a first-round pick for the silver and black and used in typical bell-cow fashion last year. In 2020, Jacobs saw the third-most rushing attempts in the league and turned it into 1,065 yards along with 12 touchdowns, good for RB8 in fantasy. At 23 years of age, this would seem like the type of player to cling onto in dynasty. Obviously, there's a reason to be concerned and it isn't health-related.

Jacobs accumulated his fantasy points through sheer volume, plodding his way to a 1,000-yard season with a 3.9 yards per carry average. His usage as a receiver saw a slight uptick from 1.5 rec/game his rookie season to 2.2 rec/game last year. That's still not great for a featured back and the addition of Kenyan Drake all but guarantees Jacobs won't catch many balls from here on out.

The bigger picture is that the Raiders' offensive outlook is that of a team in decline due to numerous busts in the NFL Draft. The offensive line is proving to be one of the worst in the league and rookie Alex Leatherwood was a major reach rather than an upgrade.

Teams looking to hang onto Jacobs as a low-end RB2 before figuring out what to do with him in the offseason might want to think twice. After playing cupcake defenses in Cincinnati and Dallas during Weeks 11-12, the Raiders will face Washington, K.C., Cleveland, Denver, and Indianapolis to end the fantasy season. There isn't a pushover on the defensive end among that group and game script certainly might not be in their favor against the Chiefs or Browns. With Jacobs missing Week 2 and likely shelved for Week 3, it appears you'd be selling low on him but in reality, it might be the last sell-high point of the season for him.

Myles Gaskin - RB, Miami Dolphins

Replaceable. That's the best way to describe Gaskin. He was thought of as a great value pick in redraft leagues because he was a lead back with a low ADP (relative to other RB1s). In dynasty, he was most likely a midseason waiver wire add in 2020 and a fast riser worth holding. That value might not hold much longer, though.

Through two games, we've seen a player who is a fringe fantasy asset regardless of game script. The Dolphins eked out a win against New England and then got blown out of the water by Buffalo but his numbers were pretty much the same.

Week 1: nine carries for 49 yards, five receptions for 27 yards, no touchdowns.
Week 2: five carries for 25 yards, four receptions for 21 yards, no touchdowns.

Not impressive for fantasy standards but his 5.3 yards per carry average is actually far higher than last year's 4.1 Y/C. He's been targeted five times in each game so far, which is reassuring, but that speaks more to his floor and ignores the fact he has a limited ceiling.

Recency bias is largely at play with Gaskin's fantasy value. He didn't really put up impressive numbers last season with the exception of a couple of games. It just so happened that one of them came in Week 16 - championship week - when he scored twice and totaled 169 scrimmage yards in a win over the Raiders. Otherwise, he produced one other game over 20 PPR points.

This year's Dolphins were supposed to be more dynamic on offense but it has been the reverse and now Tua Tagovailoa is out for at least a week, if not longer. Additions at wideout in Jaylen Waddle and Will Fuller may help the team generate more points eventually but it doesn't help Gaskin individually. He's getting fewer touches in the early part of 2021 and that might not change if the new offensive co-coordinators don't suddenly change their philosophy.

Gaskin earned a starting job but some offenses simply don't support their RB1 much these days and Miami seems to be one such team. He'll likely stick on the team and have a role but don't be surprised if they do what many expected this past offseason and add another RB through the draft. Gaskin's window of relevance is closing gradually.

Christian Kirk - WR, Arizona Cardinals

Quick, while the shine is still there from Week 1! Kirk did his best to fool fantasy managers into thinking he'd be worth adding or starting after scoring twice and gaining 70 yards in a season-opening thrashing of Tennessee. He did collect 65 yards in Week 2 but it was far overshadowed by the breakout play of second-round pick Rondale Moore.

Rondale Moore is averaging 14.3 yards AFTER catch per reception this season

4.8 yards more than any other NFL player pic.twitter.com/rjyAPw9Djz

— PFF College (@PFF_College) September 20, 2021

There's a reason they invested high draft capital on a speedy wideout - to use him frequently behind DeAndre Hopkins. That's not to say there isn't room for the WR3 in this offense to be productive, especially the way Kyler Murray is playing so far. The issue is that these boom weeks aren't frequent enough and will become even harder to predict. This has been Kirk's M.O. throughout his career. His game log under Kyler Murray speaks to his volatility.

Kirk is a fine depth piece but I find that he's better off on someone else's bench. There's plenty of hype surrounding this offense and Kirk's Week 1 output might inject some hope into other dynasty GMs that he's worth rostering.

Laviska Shenault Jr. - WR, Jacksonville Jaguars

It's fortunate that Shenault won't miss time after suffering a shoulder injury in Week 2. It's unfortunate that he is still stuck in Jacksonville. I'd say it's a sinking ship but just how can you sink if you're already at the bottom of the ocean floor? Urban Meyer might find out.

The Jags earned the privilege of selecting Trevor Lawrence No. 1 overall but early returns aren't good. This is not an indictment on him in any way, though - he'll be fine. Shenault is entering his second year and is now tied to a franchise quarterback but his usage is a growing concern. As a rookie, he posted the 10th-lowest average depth of target among all wide receivers with at least 20 targets with a 6.2 aDOT. That alone isn't a problem. Cooper Kupp had a 6.4 aDOT, Keenan Allen had a 7.4 aDOT, Curtis Samuel had a 7.4 aDOT and they did just fine.

But after two games in the Meyer era, this number is somehow declining further. Shenault's 4.1 aDOT is fifth-lowest among receivers with at least four targets. His 8% air yard share is 10th lowest among that group, alongside guys like Kendrick Bourne and Adam Humphries. He's the clear third option behind Marvin Jones and D.J. Chark so far and simply won't generate fantasy points if he's simply a dink-and-dunk option.

I was all aboard the Shenault ship this preseason but if he is just going to be a poor man's JuJu Smith-Schuster on a last-place team, I'll move on from his potential in exchange for someone with actual production.

Gabriel Davis - WR, Buffalo Bills

If Shenault is a poor man's JuJu, then Davis is a poor man's Michael Gallup. Used strictly as a field stretcher, Davis will pop off for the occasional long touchdown but that's about it. In fantasy, opportunity is everything and following target share is the best way to identify productive receivers. Regardless of what you think of Josh Allen, Davis' position on a strong Buffalo offense isn't enough.

His team share of targets sat at 10.7% last season. Entering year two, many receivers take a step forward, if not a leap. Again, it's very early, but after two contests his target share is at 6.3%. He's got youth on his side and is tied to everyone's new favorite young QB in Josh Allen but this passing offense centers around Stefon Diggs and doesn't leave too many targets around for secondary receivers. The addition of Emmanuel Sanders ensures that Davis will remain the WR4 on this team and nothing more than an occasional deep threat.

Robert Tonyan - TE, Green Bay Packers

Nobody will pay a king's ransom for a 27-year-old tight end who was an undrafted free agent out of Indiana State with one good year on his resume. I get that but it's also true that Tonyan finished as the TE4 in fantasy last year and there aren't too many other tight ends worth starting on a weekly basis. For those in win-now mode that don't need a top-flight tight end, he's acceptable enough to set and forget the rest of the year. For everyone else, Tonyan is a player to move now.

You've heard this before but 11 TD is unlikely to happen again for Tonayn since Aaron Rodgers' 9.1% TD% is bound to drop. He just put four scores on the board in one game but it was against Detroit which won't happen most weeks. Tonyan reached the end zone and gathered 52 yards which boosts his value in the short term and makes it a good time to field offers for him.

See if a frustrated GM will part with Cole Kmet,  Evan Engram, or Adam Trautman, all of whom have done nothing to inspire confidence this year but have better long-term outlooks than Tonyan beyond 2021.

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