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Dynasty fantasy football trade candidates to buy or sell for Week 17 of the 2024 NFL season. Jorden Hill lists overvalued and undervalued players to target or trade away.
Merry Christmas, RotoBallers! Although we are still in the thick of the fantasy football playoffs and have two NFL games to watch, I hope you all get to spend some quality time with your loved ones and have a safe and happy holiday.
Although the stock market may be closed for Christmas, the dynasty trade market remains open, assuming your league doesn't have a deadline. Up until this week, I've made an effort to offer trade recommendations for both contending and rebuilding teams. With the majority of leagues holding title matchups this week, I'm going to focus on players' futures and avoid obvious win-now assets.
That said, all teams can consider these suggestions as they are unlikely to impact any championships you may be in. I'm looking at players who are likely to be undervalued and overrated as we head into 2025 and beyond. Let's get started with two players to acquire now.
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Players to Target in Trades for Dynasty Fantasy Football
Jalen McMillan, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
When Chris Godwin first went down with a dislocated ankle in Week 7, there was devastation followed by speculation. Godwin's injury was heartbreaking, not only because he was the WR2 in fantasy at that point, but also because he had just returned to form after the ACL tear he suffered in 2021.
Because Godwin was so dominant to start the season, however, fantasy gamers were quick to predict who would thrive in his absence. Would it be Trey Palmer, who flashed some upside in 2023? Or would it be third-round rookie Jalen McMillan, the Washington product who played alongside more highly touted rookies Rome Odunze and Ja'Lynn Polk?
The answer was neither, as tight end Cade Otton completely dominated from Weeks 8 through 10. Otton averaged nearly 10 targets per game, hauling in 22 of them in that span. To be fair, McMillan injured his hamstring ahead of Week 9 and subsequently missed the next two games. In Week 8, he earned seven targets and finished with four receptions for 35 yards.
The initial hype for McMillan, and to a lesser extent, Palmer, was compounded by the fact that Mike Evans also worsened his hamstring injury in Week 7 and was set to miss a few games. No wideout was able to step up with Evans and Godwin out, but a healthy McMillan has emerged in the fantasy playoffs with Evans back on the field.
Tampa Bay was defeated by the Cowboys last week, and to be transparent, McMillan had an up-and-down game.
The one silver lining of tonight’s game is Jalen McMillans emergence
Yes the stripped TD hurt. And he has complete the play
But he’s stepped up the last 3 games, 14 Receptions for 191 yards and 4 TD in that span
— Ashlie (@EMT_Ashlie) December 23, 2024
He scored in the second quarter and was allowed to make a game-changing touchdown reception in the fourth. The ball was taken out of his hands by All-Pro defensive back DaRon Bland.
McMillan has made some rookie mistakes. But his growth from the beginning of the season to now is palpable. He is separating at a high level and scoring just under 17 fantasy points per contest over the past three weeks. With divisional showdowns against the Panthers and Saints on tap for Weeks 17 and 18, respectively, McMillan should be able to keep his hot streak alive.
While Godwin should be recovered in plenty of time to start the 2025 campaign, there is a strong possibility he is no longer with the Buccaneers by then. Godwin will enter unrestricted free agency this coming offseason and should be able to sign a substantial contract somewhere despite the ankle ailment.
It's hard to imagine Evans not retiring in Tampa Bay, but that is probably best for McMillan anyway. He has shown an ability to succeed as the WR2 in a Baker Mayfield-led offensive attack, and he should be exactly that for the next few years.
I'd be open to trading a second-round rookie pick to get McMillan, especially if it's mid-to-late.
Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears
Caleb Williams has been a controversial athlete for a while now, so it shouldn't be a surprise that his rookie season has been so divisive. Yes, the Bears are 4-11 while averaging 18.9 points and fewer than 300 yards of offense per game. No, Williams has not delivered on the lofty expectations that were set for him.
But has Williams looked the part? Has he exhibited the ability to lead an offense and elevate those around him? In my opinion, he has.
Many of his critics argue that Williams' solid passing numbers are inflated from what he does in garbage time. There is some truth to this as the Bears have often gotten off to slow starts before attempting to surmount a comeback when it's already too late. Is this Williams' fault, though?
First, the Bears relieved offensive coordinator Shane Waldron of his duties after a Week 10 loss to the New England Patriots. Thomas Brown then took over as OC. Three weeks later, Chicago fired head coach Matt Eberflus after losing to the Detroit Lions on Thanksgiving Day.
This sounds a little ridiculous out of context considering how much better Detroit is as a football team. If you watched the game, though, you know that Chicago had a great chance of winning and should have at least sent it to overtime.
Bears had all that time, a timeout, and close to field goal range, snapped the ball with 7 seconds. Rookie mistake from Caleb Williams. pic.twitter.com/JNnispN7rm
— SM Highlights (@SMHighlights1) November 28, 2024
Williams deserves some blame for how this contest ended, but Eberflus undoubtedly should have called a timeout. His decision to stand back and let his rookie signal-caller manage the clock cost him his job. Since then, Thomas Brown has served as the interim head coach.
The team is now 4-11 and has lost nine straight. It averages the eighth-fewest rushing yards per game, and per PFF, its offensive line ranks 26th in the league. The lack of continuity in the coaching staff is certainly a factor, as is the fact that the Bears compete in arguably the best division in football.
During its nine-game losing streak, Chicago has faced the Lions twice, the Vikings twice, and the Packers once. All three division rivals are well-coached and have double-digit wins on the season. Still, the Bears have nearly beaten all three, losing by a combined seven points over a three-week NFC North gauntlet from Week 11 to Week 13.
All of this is to say that Williams has had a lot working against him this year. And yet, his statistics are incredibly impressive. Bo Nix, who has been praised for leading the Broncos to a 9-6 record, has 3,235 passing yards, a 64.3% completion rate, 22 passing touchdowns, and 11 interceptions. Williams, who has been labeled a bust by some, has 3,271 passing yards, a 62.2% completion rate, 19 passing touchdowns, and only five interceptions.
He also has a respectable 442 rushing yards but zero rushing touchdowns, while Nix has 352 and four. Denver's offensive line ranks second in the league, according to PFF. The Broncos also have a much better defense than Chicago.
We can expect the Bears to address their deficiencies this offseason, starting with the head-coaching position. The biggest possible catch here would be Lions OC Ben Johnson, who was uninterested in leaving Detroit last summer but reportedly will interview with Chicago in the coming months.
Even with some upgrades around him, Williams isn't all that likely to become a fantasy stud on the level of Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, or Jayden Daniels, at least not in single-quarterback, four-point passing touchdown formats.
In Superflex or leagues that award six points for passing scores, however, I think it's only a matter of time before Williams develops into a must-start QB1. If you can get Williams for Kyler Murray, Brock Purdy, or Baker Mayfield, even if adding a second-round rookie pick is necessary, I'd encourage it.
Players to Trade Away for Dynasty Fantasy Football
Dalton Kincaid, Buffalo Bills
Sometimes, players perform very well and a sell-high opportunity arises. Other times, players fall substantially short of expectations but still have some dynasty value thanks to draft capital or future projections.
Dalton Kincaid was drafted by the Bills in the first round of the 2023 NFL Draft and, subsequently, the first round of many dynasty rookie drafts. Through his first two seasons as a pro, he hasn't come close to proving he was worth this investment.
In retrospect, Kincaid was quite good as a rookie tight end. Tight ends almost always take a few years to produce in the NFL, so 73 receptions for 673 yards is nothing to scoff at. Unfortunately, he has regressed in his second campaign, even though Buffalo moved on from target hog Stefon Diggs last offseason.
Kincaid has missed a few outings with a knee injury, so let's take a look at his 2024 weekly averages to determine his 17-game pace. If Kincaid played a full season, he'd finish with around 104 targets, 60 receptions, 600 yards, and three touchdowns. Interestingly, Kincaid only played 16 games last year and logged more receptions and yards than that.
104 targets, just over six per game, would be up from the 5.7 he earned last season. Yet, his catch percentage has fallen off a cliff.
In the last 10 years there have been 183 TE seasons of 70+ targets.
Dalton Kincaid's catch % in 2024 ranks 173rd.
His catch % has plummeted from 80.2% to 57.5%.
Going into yesterday 35% of his targets were deemed uncatchable.
— Tweets by Sneaky Joe (@SneakyJoeSports) December 23, 2024
A catch rate this low is sometimes understandable for players like DK Metcalf or Calvin Ridley, who make their money tracking down deep balls. Kincaid, on the other hand, averages 8.2 air yards on his targets. He's getting more opportunities down the field than his teammate Khalil Shakir or a tight end like Jonnu Smith, but not enough to warrant catching fewer than 60% of balls thrown his way.
Josh Allen and Kincaid would have some work to do to get on the same page. The concern is that Buffalo doesn't have much of a reason to feature Kincaid more prominently or get him going with some easy looks. The Bills are 12-3 and Allen is the current favorite to be named the league's MVP.
Without Diggs, it seems that Buffalo is content spreading the ball around rather than force-feeding any individual pass-catcher. The Bills have eight players garnering at least two targets per contest. This may not sound like much, but only nine other teams have this in common with Buffalo, and just four of them have more than eight players hitting this mark.
Kincaid isn't old by any means, but at 25 years of age, you can't make a strong argument that he just needs time to develop. His fantasy output to this point does not match his dynasty value at TE6 on www.KeepTradeCut.com.
Cole Kmet, who is the same age and is averaging more fantasy points in a worse situation, is the TE17. I wouldn't trade Kincaid for Kmet straight up, but sending him away for a tight end of this caliber with an additional asset in return is an easy win.
Tyjae Spears, Tennessee Titans
A few months ago, I was all in on Tyjae Spears in both dynasty and redraft. Even after the Titans brought in Tony Pollard, I liked Spears because he was much cheaper in drafts and because Pollard didn't look so great last season.
Spears was injured for most of this season, so his lack of production for the first 14 weeks isn't entirely on him. He has come out of nowhere to help best ball teams in the fantasy playoffs. I say best ball teams because, let's face it, no one started Spears in Week 15.
Tyjae Spears has FOUR TDs the past two weeks!
— PlayerProfiler (@rotounderworld) December 22, 2024
Spears is electric with the ball in his hands and a capable pass-catcher, but it's been surprising to see him take goal-line carries away from Pollard. To his credit, he's been effective, scoring four red-zone touchdowns over the past two weeks.
Still, Spears is averaging just 3.4 yards per carry on the year. Since Week 15, when he started to take on a larger role, he has gained about 2.3 yards per attempt. It is a small sample size, of course, but Ray Davis is the only running back with at least 10 carries to be less efficient than Spears in this span.
Spears' opponents during this stretch were the Bengals and Colts. Cincinnati has allowed the 12th-most rushing yards per contest while Indianapolis has surrendered the fifth-most rushing yards per contest. To put it plainly, Spears has not been good on the ground this season, even in favorable matchups.
I would have higher hopes for Spears if it seemed likely that the Titans would move on from Pollard in the offseason, but Tennessee doesn't have a potential out from his three-year, $24 million contract until after the 2025 season. While the team could trade him, this shouldn't be anticipated. Pollard has been a bright spot on an otherwise abysmal Titans offense this season.
Additionally, Spears has already dealt with numerous injuries in his career, including two ACL tears. His inability to stay on the field this season tanked his dynasty value significantly already.
Even if he can maintain his current health, Spears' best-case scenario for next season is probably to be the receiving back in a 50-50 split with Pollard on a mediocre offense. Selling him high while he is healthy and running hot on touchdowns seems like a smart choice.
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