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Dynasty fantasy football trade candidates to buy or sell for June 2023. Jorden Hill lists overvalued and undervalued players to target or trade away.
It's been over a month since the NFL Draft, but dynasty player values continue to change every day as we enter a portion of the offseason fueled by irrational hype and overreaction. We've all fallen victim to coach speak and highlights of our favorite players dominating during OTAs and training camp.
As difficult as it may be, it's important to remind yourself to stay level-headed and evaluate situations and talent with the least amount of bias possible. Although it feels like the season is rapidly approaching, there are still almost three months until kickoff, giving you plenty of time to make the moves necessary to get your dynasty team on track.
I hope to help you do exactly that as I highlight two players that I'm trading for and two others that I'm moving on from, keeping in mind their perceived value in dynasty fantasy football. Of course, some players are worth more to contending teams than rebuilding squads, so I will be sure to mention strategy when discussing each player. Without further ado, let's get into the players I'm looking to acquire.
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Players to Target in Trades for Dynasty Fantasy Football
Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks
Around this time last year, Geno Smith was essentially free in dynasty leagues as it was unclear whether he or Drew Lock would be named Seattle's starting quarterback. Smith also hadn't appeared in more than five games in a season since the 2014-2015 campaign. Even when Smith was named the starter, there was little reason to have any optimism that the 31-year-old, entering his 10th professional season, could become fantasy-relevant for the first time in his career.
Not only did Smith play his way onto the fantasy radar, but he also finished as the QB5 overall while leading the Seahawks to an NFC Wild Card berth. Playing all 17 games certainly boosted his fantasy finish, but Smith averaged 18.5 fantasy points per game, the eighth-most in the NFL among starting quarterbacks. His incredible season earned him Pro Bowl honors and the AP NFL Comeback Player of the Year award.
At 32 years old, Smith is by no means a must-add player for dynasty teams with a long rebuild ahead, but he appears primed to be a solid contributor at a great value over the next few years. In March, Smith agreed to a three-year contract to stay in Seattle with a base value of $75 million. The team-friendly deal was structured so that the Seahawks can move on from Smith after just one year and $28 million. For the time being, it seems that the organization is confident with Smith under center.
Many speculated that Seattle would select a quarterback as early as the first round in the 2023 NFL Draft. Instead, the Seahawks bolstered their defense and added some new weapons for Smith to work with.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, an explosive receiver out of Ohio State, was the first wideout off the board. UCLA product Zach Charbonnet is a talented pass-catcher in his own right and was selected in the second round as the third running back in the draft.
Although he was a seventh-round pick, Georgia running back Kenny McIntosh has been praised for his skills in the passing game. These three are being added to an offense that scored almost 24 points per game last season with the likes of DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and Kenneth Walker III.
At this point in his career, Smith isn't viewed as an elite dynasty asset, which is exactly what makes him such an obvious buy in Superflex leagues. He could very well finish as a fantasy QB1 this season and beyond, but he can usually be acquired for less than a future first-round rookie pick.
Rondale Moore, Arizona Cardinals
When the Cardinals officially released DeAndre Hopkins just a few weeks ago, I honestly expected to see a lot more hype for Marquise Brown than I did. Brown is still just 26 years old and was the WR6 in half-PPR scoring through the first six games of last season with a healthy Kyler Murray and Hopkins suspended. The Cardinals are expected to be without Murray for a portion of the 2023-2024 season, but there should still be a lot of targets in Hollywood's future.
All that being said, Brown still has plenty of believers in the dynasty community and doesn't necessarily come cheap. His teammate, however, should be relatively easy to sneak onto your roster. Rondale Moore operated as Arizona's slot wide receiver when healthy last year, and the results were quietly great.
Sure, seven games is a small sample, but Moore's target volume as the secondary weapon in Arizona's passing attack absolutely stands out. He eclipsed double-digit targets in three of those seven games and earned eight targets in two others.
We can also look at Greg Dortch's statistics last season as another reason to be excited for Moore. With Moore sidelined, the undrafted Dortch had a significant role in the offense as a slot receiver. He averaged over eight targets and 11 half-PPR fantasy points per game when playing on over 60 percent of snaps.
In Weeks 4 through 10, Dortch barely saw the field, indicating the Cardinals' preference to deploy Moore in the same role. This makes sense considering Moore was a second-round pick in 2021 with a respectable pedigree.
Concerns regarding Moore's injury history are valid, especially given his size. At just 5'7" and 180 pounds, Moore is among the smallest players in the NFL. Additionally, the Cardinals could make substantial changes to their offense under new head coach Jonathan Gannon and first-year offensive coordinator Drew Petzing.
Any qualms are baked into his dynasty price, though, as the 23-year-old can be had for any future second-rounder in the majority of leagues and possibly for less in some.
Contending teams shouldn't expect Moore to be a plug-and-play fantasy WR3 with Colt McCoy under center, but don't be surprised if he produces as a top-30 wideout over the back half of the season. Hopkins will be leaving behind almost 11 targets per game with only Zach Pascal and third-round rookie Michael Wilson as notable additions to Arizona's wide receiver group this offseason.
Players to Trade Away for Dynasty Fantasy Football
Jahan Dotson, Washington Commanders
Based on some of the opinions I've read on Jahan Dotson, I get the feeling this could be considered a hot take. Dotson was solid in his first NFL season, averaging almost 10 half-PPR fantasy points per game and scoring seven touchdowns, which tied him with Christian Watson for the most by a rookie receiver.
The former first-round pick proved to be a gifted route runner, but I'm skeptical of the second-year breakout season that many are expecting. The Commanders are likely to roll with 2022 fifth-round selection Sam Howell as their starter this year and it's difficult to project how effective this offense will be with him under center.
We got a small taste of it in Week 18. Although Howell wasn't awful, he certainly wasn't prolific through the air. The North Carolina product completed just 11 of his 19 attempts for 169 yards, one touchdown, and one interception. Terry McLaurin led Washington in targets with six and was the recipient of Howell's first career touchdown pass. Dotson posted an efficient three receptions for 72 yards on four targets.
Efficiency was key for Dotson in his rookie campaign. He averaged 43.6 receiving yards on just 2.9 receptions per game, finding the end zone in over half of his appearances. The opportunity given to him, though, was not ideal. His 5.1 targets per game trailed both McLaurin and Curtis Samuel, and his 17.5% target rate was 75th amongst all qualifying receivers.
Had it not been for his 11.48% touchdown rate, the second-highest in the league, Dotson's fantasy output would have been very disappointing, even for a rookie.
We can expect his involvement in the offense to increase in his second year, but the Commanders attempted the 13th-fewest passes per contest with 32.6 in 2022. Considering his target competition in McLaurin and Samuel, I'm worried that Dotson is currently valued at his ceiling. Unless new offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy installs the Chiefs offense and Howell turns into Patrick Mahomes.
McLaurin is notorious for turning in years of productivity despite mediocre quarterback play. Yet, he has still never finished higher than WR14 in fantasy. Unless we expect Dotson to surpass McLaurin in almost all metrics this season, it's hard to imagine he scores as a top-24 wideout.
Yes, we're talking about dynasty here, so betting on Dotson isn't a bet for this season alone. Unless you're getting a great haul for him, he's a fine hold on rebuilding rosters. For contending teams, however, I think it would be wise to trade Dotson now while he's garnering a lot of hype in the offseason. You should be able to get assets added to win-now players such as Amari Cooper or Calvin Ridley in exchange for Dotson.
Jahmyr Gibbs, Detroit Lions
The Lions shocked the world in the 2023 NFL Draft when they selected Jahmyr Gibbs with the 12th overall pick. Gibbs and Bijan Robinson are the only running backs to be drafted earlier than pick 24 since Saquon Barkley went second overall in 2018. The 21-year-old Gibbs was a highly-regarded prospect coming into the draft, but concerns surrounding his size prevented many mock drafts from including him in the first round.
At just 5'9" and 199 pounds, Gibbs isn't guaranteed to be able to handle a three-down workload. Under normal circumstances, I would look past this because of the incredible draft capital he received. Any team willing to invest in a running back with a top-12 selection clearly isn't worried about his size. I'm concerned with Gibbs' workload for another reason.
David Montgomery left Chicago to sign the second-largest running back contract of the offseason with Detroit. The Lions can potentially move on from Montgomery's contract after the second year. In the meantime, I expect him to be quite the thorn in the side of Gibbs' fantasy managers.
Montgomery hasn't been especially efficient up to this point in his career. He has proven to possess a three-down skill set and will now have the opportunity to run behind an improved offensive line when compared to that of the Bears.
Gibbs excels as a receiver and should be viewed as superior to Montgomery in the passing game. This is the good news for those with Gibbs on their team in a PPR dynasty league. The bad news is that the 222-pound Montgomery is likely to see more carries than Gibbs and should dominate goal-line touches while also mixing in for occasional passing-down work.
Like Dotson, Gibbs is extremely young and thus seen as an ascending asset. I'm even more willing to move on from Gibbs on any dynasty team simply because he is a running back with a massive amount of value.
There are a plethora of veteran running backs I'd pivot to on a contending team, assuming additional draft picks or players are included in my return. On a rebuilding team, I'd prefer a young wide receiver to Gibbs as a long-term play. Some examples include DeVonta Smith, Drake London, and fellow rookie Jaxon Smith-Njigba.
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