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Benjamin looks at top MLB prospects risers for fantasy baseball Week 14 (2023). His minor league hitters and pitchers to know as fantasy and dynasty sleepers.
Every season in Minor League Baseball and dynasty fantasy baseball, there are "pop-up" prospects. These prospects are guys that explode on the scene without previous reputation. Sometimes it's due to a change in swing or pitch delivery that allows for a jump, sometimes it's simple physical maturation, and sometimes it's a guy taking advantage of new surroundings to put up big numbers.
The difficulty is figuring out which of those prospects is going to sustain and perhaps even improve on their breakout year and which ones are simply a flash in the pan for one year. We will take a look at a number of last season's pop-up guys in this week's six-packs.
Look here for insight on potential fantasy baseball dynasty league pickups before they hit and to get to know players as they ascend to the major leagues!
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Top Hitter Prospects
Statistical highlights:
- Isolated slugging (min. 100 PA): 1. Christopher Morel .400, 2. Elehuris Montero .383, 3. Matt McLain .362, 4. Nolan Jones .356, 5. Mark Vientos .352.
- Runs scored: 1. Austin Gauthier 64, 2. Jonatan Clase 59, 3. Five with 58.
Hitter Prospect Outlooks: Fantasy Six-Pack
Dyan Jorge, SS, Colorado Rockies
The Rockies signed Jorge out of Cuba in January 2022 for $2.8 million, a Colorado franchise record for an international signing. Like many signees from Cuba, Jorge was older than the typical signee in the 2022 international class, and he spent his first season in the Dominican Summer League, hitting a combined .320/.402/.452 with 18 extra-base hits and 13 stolen bases over 53 games between Colorado's two Dominican Summer League teams.
Jorge is more instincts over true raw tools. He is a plus runner, and his defense is considered plus at short, buoyed by his incredible instincts in the field. The question is whether he'll be able to add much muscle to his 6'3" lean frame without sacrificing speed and defensive ability.
The Rockies brought Jorge stateside for instructs last fall, where he significantly impressed, and he opened the 2023 season back in Arizona in complex ball. So far, that has not challenged Dyan, as he's hit .407/.542/.685 with a stunning 17/7 BB/K over 16 games to open the year.
VERDICT: Because he had to clear after defecting, Jorge is already 20. Age-wise, he's old for complex ball, but his performance is still notable. He should be a guy to move to full-season ball around the mid-season mark, and dynasty owners may need to add him soon after in order to have a shot.
Termarr Johnson, 2B, Pittsburgh Pirates
Johnson impressed many by attending a summer wood bat league last season before he was drafted out of high school, hitting .273/.412/.382 against college players before hitting .275/.396/.450 in his introduction to full-season ball. Pretty impressive for an 18-year-old kid who would end up as the fourth overall selection last year.
Johnson's draft position and performance against older competition inspired many to rank him highly in both prospect lists and in FYPD drafts in the offseason. It was assumed that Johnson's advanced contact skills and knowledge of the strike zone would allow him to breeze through lower-level minor leagues.
That's not exactly been the case. Johnson has posted a .412 on-base due to his excellent eye that's produced a 20.6% walk rate. The issue is that he's also posting nearly a 31% strikeout rate, leading some evaluators to wonder if Johnson is perhaps too passive at the plate, not allowing his natural skills to play.
VERDICT: Johnson may not be a guy to debut as a teenager as some were aggressively projecting this offseason, but the ability to draw a walk and surprising power is a bonus for a teenage middle infielder. He'll likely get some time at High-A this year and could open the 2024 season in the upper minors. He should certainly be rostered in all dynasty formats, but expecting him to produce in the majors before 2025 at the soonest is pushing it.
Dalton Rushing, C, Los Angeles Dodgers
Likely the highest-drafted non-first-round pick in FYPDs this offseason, Rushing was a second-round pick by the Dodgers out of Louisville and did nothing but hit once he hit the minors, slashing .404/.522/.740 in 30 games, 28 of which were played in Single-A.
Rushing was assigned to High-A to open the year, and he struggled the first few weeks in the cold weather of the Midwest League. He has picked up since, with season-long numbers of .263/.438/.500 with a 20% walk rate and 24% strikeout rate. The lefty-swinging Rushing has powered out seven home runs among 22 extra-base hits thus far.
The hold-up on Rushing has been his defense behind the plate. He's a decent framer and blocker, but his ability to control the run game is weak, even with above-average arm strength. The arm could allow him to move to a corner outfield spot, though he does have average-at-best speed, so he's likely to end up at first base if he doesn't work behind the plate.
VERDICT: Rushing should get the bump up to Double-A around midseason, and with his impressive plate discipline, his bat could have him ready before the questions about his defensive ability are answered. That said, the Dodgers have plenty of catching depth in the organization, so he's not going to require a spot behind the plate to have value to the organization. He is definitely a must-own guy at this point.
Emmanuel Rodriguez, OF, Minnesota Twins
The Twins signed Rodriguez out of the Dominican Republic for $2.5 million as one of the top international free agents in the 2019-2020 class. Because of the pandemic, his pro debut wasn't made until 2021 when he showed off impressive raw power and speed but had contact concerns.
Last year, Rodriguez was among the most impressive hitters in the minor leagues when a knee injury ended his season. At the time of the injury, he was the minor league leader in wRC+, slashing .272/.493/.552 with more walks than strikeouts. This season he's fully healthy, and he's shown his home run power and speed are both still there, with 10 homers and nine steals in 47 games.
The contact issues of his first season have returned though, as Rodriguez is slashing .228/.377/.456, and while his walk rate is still high (19%), he's striking out at a clip over 30%. He's seemingly leaned hard into his power, with an all-or-nothing approach, generating 56% of his hits to pull side and seeing his highest groundball rate of his career (41%).
VERDICT: Rodriguez has the most raw talent of any player in a strong Twins farm system. He will need to work through his raw tools to polish them for gameplay, but Emmanuel is a legit 5-tool talent that should get a look by the end of 2024 for the Twins outfield. He's a definite must-own.
Roman Anthony, OF, Boston Red Sox
Anthony was the Red Sox second-round pick last summer out of the same high school in Florida that has produced Anthony Rizzo and Jesus Luzardo as well as Orioles top prospect Coby Mayo. Many have actually strongly compared Rizzo and Anthony at the plate due to Anthony's strong left-handed swing.
In his pro debut, Anthony slashed .306/.374/.361 with more walks than strikeouts, leading to many pushing up his value before this season in FYPD drafts. Anthony received a full-season assignment to open the year but struggled to a .228/.376/.317 line to open the season. The good news is that he was walking at a tremendous rate and earned a promotion to High-A Greenville.
Since the promotion, Anthony's full skill set has been unleashed, as he's hit four home runs in his first two weeks at the level, slashing .268/.388/.634 with a still-impressive 16.3% walk rate. He's also using his high instincts on the field to make up for average-ish speed in center field.
VERDICT: Unleashing his power has really put Anthony on the map for prospects this season, even more than he was previously. While the Red Sox have strong hitters and strong fielders in the outfield in the system ahead of him, none combines both the way Anthony does, so he could make the move to Double-A by the end of the season if he keeps things up. Wait in shallow leagues right now, but he should be owned in deep dynasty.
Yeremi Cabrera, OF, Texas Rangers
The Rangers signed Cabrera out of the Dominican Republic for just $10,000 in the 2022 signing period. That looked like about the right price as Cabrera stumbled to a .613 OPS in his debut in the Dominican Summer League.
Now, it's beginning to look like a bargain. On the Rangers' other DSL team this summer, Cabrera is outshining many players who were signed for ten times what he was. In 13 games so far, he's slashed .404/.563/.787 with three doubles, three triples, three home runs, and four stolen bases. He's also put up an impressive 15/6 BB/K.
Cabrera is very lean at 5'11" and 155 pounds. He does have a frame that would absorb more good weight without losing his speed. The Rangers have played Cabrera in right field this year due to other players that they want to work in center field, but Cabrera has the speed to handle center and the arm to handle right.
VERDICT: Cabrera is a long way off at this point. There's no reason to roster him yet, but he's already outplaying his bonus, so keep an eye out in deep leagues.
Top Pitcher Prospects
Statistical highlights:
- Games pitched: 1. Jose Ferrer 33, 2 (tie). Declan Cronin, Brandon Eisert, and Ryan Nutoff 30.
- Strikeout rate minus walk rate (min. 30 IP): 1. Lucas Wepf 37.7%, 2. John McMillon 37%, 3. Andrew Abbott 34.6%, 4. Kyle Hurt 33.9%, 5. Anthony Maldonado 33.1%.
Pitcher Prospect Outlooks: Fantasy Six-Pack
Jeter Martinez, SP, Seattle Mariners
The Mariners signed Martinez out of Mexico this January as one of the top-rated available players on the international market this season. He was the top-rated player from Mexico in all rankings.
The 6'4" Martinez has long arms and generates additional difficulty to hit as he comes over the top with his delivery. So far, Martinez has made three starts in the Dominican Summer League, tossing 13 2/3 innings, allowing just one earned run with a 19/3 K/BB rate.
Martinez works in the low-90s now, but he has the frame to add good weight and definitely add velocity. He's also shown an impressive feel for multiple offspeed pitches.
VERDICT: Martinez is a long way off, and you'll not ever see me recommend a DSL pitcher as a fantasy add at any dynasty level. That said, the feel that Martinez has of his pitches at his young age as well as the frame to continue adding make him one to keep in the back of your mind.
Jake Bennett, SP, Washington Nationals
In the summer of 2021, Bennett had an impressive summer in the Cape Cod League, and he followed it up with an impressive 2022 for Oklahoma, posting a 133/22 K/BB ratio over 117 innings for the Sooners. The Nationals selected the 6'6" lefty in the second round of last summer's draft.
While he didn't pitch during the season for Washington, he impressed in his time at instructs and really began to pick up steam this spring with performances on the back fields. He's totaled 56 innings on the year, with a 1.77 ERA and 1.02 WHIP, posting a 70/13 K/BB ratio across both A-ball levels.
Typically a guy at Bennett's height would struggle to be as athletic and smooth in his delivery as Bennett is. He works with a fastball that touches 96-97 but sits 92-94 and features a plus change and a slider that he's worked on shaping more consistently this year.
VERDICT: Bennett is still not yet in the upper minors, so he's not a priority add in any format, but with the college pedigree and his performance this year so far, keep an eye on how he finishes the year.
Chase Hampton, SP, New York Yankees
Hampton finished his collegiate career at Texas Tech with a big 12-strikeout game against Notre Dame before the Yankees picked him in the sixth round last summer. The Yankees had the 6'2" righty work with coaches on his delivery rather than heading out to make his pro debut last season.
The work allowed Hampton to unlock a couple of additional ticks in his velocity, now sitting 94-97 with four offspeed offerings – a slider, curve, change, and cutter – all of which are average to above average. As he improves his control with his adjusted delivery and better feel with his pitches, his stuff becomes even more difficult to hit.
After dominating High-A Hudson Valley (77 strikeouts in 47 innings), Hampton is becoming a better overall pitcher since his bump up to Double-A, with better control and command while still striking out just shy of 30% of hitters.
VERDICT: Hampton has taken a similar path to Will Warren, but he may have actually passed by Warren in starter-quality stuff. He's on the cusp of a must-own in deep dynasties, but right now he's a wait in more shallow dynasty leagues until he's had longer success at Double-A.
Jack Noble, SP, Minnesota Twins
Noble worked his way from Oregon to junior college to Long Beach State in his college journey. He finished the 20-round 2022 draft without hearing his name called and signed as an undrafted free agent with the Minnesota Twins.
Noble made his debut at the complex out of the bullpen and then went to work with the Twins coaching staff during instructs. He seems to have picked something up, as he opened this year in the rotation at the complex, posting a 1.72 ERA over 15 2/3 innings with a 20/7 BB/K.
The 6'2" righty works in the low-90s with his fastball that has an exceptional ride, then pairs that with a curve that has exceptional spin and an average change.
VERDICT: Noble has work to do to develop and is old for his level right now, but his fastball/curve combo gives him a soft landing as a reliever. He'll be developed as a starter for now, and he doesn't need to be rostered at this time.
Brant Hurter, SP, Detroit Tigers
A big (6'6", 250 pounds) lefty out of Georgia Tech, Hurter was drafted by the Tigers in the seventh round in 2021. He was coming off a 2021 season that was a disappointment after an elite showing in 2019 before injury.
Hurter didn't pitch in his draft season, but he was absolutely dominant on the mound to open 2022, finishing the year in Double-A. Overall, he tossed 106 2/3 innings, with a 3.71 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, and a 136/21 K/BB.
Hurter returned to Double-A to open the 2023 season, and he's continued with his elite command of a low-90s fastball, a fringe-plus slider, and a fringe-average change. He pounds the zone with the fastball and slider and then uses his change to throw off right-handed hitters.
VERDICT: While Hurter has shown excellent results, his best attribute on the mound is his location. He's likely best suited as a backend starter or swingman type, but a guy like that from the left side can every so often take another slight step and become an inning-eater starter, so keep an eye on him.
John McMillon, RP, Kansas City Royals
A strikeout artist out of the bullpen for Texas Tech, McMillon was signed as an undrafted free agent by the Royals after the shortened 2020 draft. He was known for his power stuff on the mound but struggled to locate his pitches.
The walk issues followed McMillon in his first two pro seasons as he walked more than 22% of hitters, though he also struck out 34% of batters. He opened the year back at Columbia, and the control finally came around to some degree.
McMillon has pushed up three levels, now pitching for Double-A Northwest Arkansas. He noted that the team changed a lot in its evaluation of pitching prospects this season, and he's taken advantage of the additional analytics to post a combined 2.62 ERA over 34 1/3 innings out of the bullpen, with an elite 65/15 K/BB.
VERDICT: McMillon is one of the top relief prospects in the game right now, with a triple-digit fastball and a wicked slider to work alongside the heater. He should find his way to the majors in 2024, but there's no rush to add him at this point until he shows it in a big-league bullpen.
Check back again next week for more evaluations and look behind the numbers!
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