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Benjamin looks at top MLB prospects risers for fantasy baseball Week 13 (2023). His minor league hitters and pitchers to know as fantasy and dynasty sleepers.
All levels of minor league baseball are now in full force, with complex leagues and the Dominican Summer League each having multiple weeks under the belt.
In this week's six-packs, we are going to look at players who have performed tremendously well over the past 30 days. While it can be a short time frame to look at, often viewing a player's progress throughout the year can show growth beyond the baseline statistics.
Look here for insight on potential fantasy baseball dynasty league pickups before they hit and to get to know players as they ascend to the major leagues!
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Top Hitter Prospects
Statistical highlights:
- Walk rate (min. 100 PA): 1. Anthony Vilar 24.7%, 2. Cooper Hummel 23.3%, 3. Mario Camilletti 22.9%, 4. Carter Jensen 22.3%, 5. Niko Goodrum 22.2%.
- Stolen bases: 1. Victor Scott II 48, 2. Dairon Blanco 47, 3 (tie). Jonatan Clase and Forrest Wall 41, 5. Chandler Simpson 40.
Hitter Prospect Outlooks: Fantasy Six-Pack
Yorfran Medina, 1B, Los Angeles Dodgers
Medina was signed out of Venezuela last January as part of the Dodgers' huge Latin signing class. In fact, the Dodgers signed the most players of any team in the 2021-2022 international signing period. That also means that none of the players signed got "huge" bonuses, needing to earn their way up the system.
Listed at 6'4" and 195 pounds, Medina has actually added weight since that listing, with a report from the Dominican indicating that he is probably closer to 250 pounds than 200 pounds. That's led to Medina moving to first base full-time, putting even more pressure on his bat.
While he struggled to a .595 OPS in his first trip through the Dominican Summer League last season, Medina is drastically changed this year. It's only seven games so far, but Medina has walked seven times and struck out four times while hitting with power to put up a .556/.724/1.444 slash line.
VERDICT: Medina has plenty of work to do to make it, but the early returns this season have been very impressive, and he's in a great system to push him forward. No reason to jump on him yet.
Colt Keith, 3B, Detroit Tigers
In the shortened 2020 draft, a number of quality high school players made it to college that normally would have been drafted in the 6th through 15th rounds of the draft. Keith looked to be headed in that direction until the Tigers plucked him with their fifth-round pick.
Keith had a strong showing with the bat in his pro debut, then injuries shortened his 2022. He hit very well in the Arizona Fall League (.344/.463/.541 in 80 PA) to put himself back on the radar, then he opened 2023 in Double-A and played well, but not elite, in April, hitting .286/.358/.464 with three home runs in the first month.
Since the calendar turned to May, Keith has been a monster, hitting .347/.417/.674 with 11 home runs over 163 plate appearances. He's also shown solid defensive skills at the hot corner. With a hole at third at the big league level, Keith has a chance to find his way in Detroit by season's end if he can keep up the improvement on both sides of the ball.
VERDICT: Keith has only had one thing slow him down in his career, and that's injury. Sadly, he's recently been announced to be working through some throwing issues and that could slow his ascent to the majors. He should be owned in all dynasty leagues, however, as he's absolutely a guy that will compete in 2024 for a starting job.
Derek Bernard, 2B, Colorado Rockies
Signed for $185,000 out of the Dominican Republic last season, Bernard was one of the youngest signees in the 2022 class. Bernard was a surprising reassignment to the DSL this year after putting up strong stats, with a .308/.377/.439 slash line and four homers and 11 steals in 56 games last season.
Perhaps the Rockies knew what they were doing in the assignment, however. He has exploded out of the gate, with a .467/.590/.933 slash line, including a 9/3 BB/K in nine games. He's already matched his 2022 home run total with four and has also stolen five bases.
The reports on Bernard's defense indicate that he's a very strong defender at second, perhaps even plus, but would not be major league caliber at short, though he has the hands to do so.
VERDICT: Bernard is still a long way off, but he should end up stateside this year and could be another in a recently-productive middle infield development chain that the Rockies have been putting together. Hold off for now, but he's very intriguing.
Jonathan Aranda, 2B/3B, Tampa Bay Rays
Originally signed by the Rays in 2015 out of Mexico, Aranda made his major league debut last season and many expected him to compete for a roster spot out of spring training, but impressive performances and surprising health from competitors for the infield positions that Aranda plays best led to him heading back down to Triple-A.
Long known as an impressive contact hitter, Aranda has a career minor league batting average over .300 in nearly 1,700 at bats. That didn't show up well to open the season, as Aranda was slashing .266/.405/.455 through the end of May. He's gone on an absolute tear in June, however, slashing .517/.800/1.386 with eight doubles and three home runs over 15 games.
Aranda is in the frequently-seen Rays mode of a player that can handle multiple positions but is not exactly exceptional at any of them. Through his strong run in June, however, he's been primarily playing second base.
VERDICT: Aranda is on the doorstep of the majors right now, really simply waiting for an opportunity. He's not likely going to provide a lot of power stats, but he could be a safe average bet once he's called up. He should be rostered in all dynasties as the call-up is pending.
Aaron Palensky, OF, New York Yankees
An undrafted free agent signing after the shortened 2020 draft, Palensky was a college hitter that likely would have been drafted in the 7th through 10th rounds by someone coming off a productive career at the Univerisity of Nebraska.
The Yankees started Palensky at Double-A in 2021, but he stumbled in the assignment. He was demoted to High-A Hudson Valley in 2022 and got himself back on track, more and more as the season went along, closing with a .285/.410/.523 slash from June 1 through the end of the season with 20 extra-base hits and a 14% walk rate and a 25% strikeout rate while playing a strong corner outfield.
The Yankees opened Palensky in Hudson Valley again this season, but he earned a promotion to Double-A on May 30. Since the promotion, he's slashed .293/.483/.561 with two home runs and five steals along with a 12/8 BB/K ratio over 60 plate appearances.
VERDICT:
Palensky's certainly found something, but what that will translate to at the major league level is anyone's guess. He's a corner outfielder without a ton of power, so his chances as a starter are limited, and his lack of ability to handle center could keep him from being a fourth outfielder. No need to roster him yet, but there's something here to keep an eye on.
Davis Wendzel, 3B/SS, Texas Rangers
Many draft evaluators were curious when the Rangers landed Josh Jung with the eighth pick in 2019 and then proceeded to draft Wendzel in the competitive balance round, 41st overall, in the same draft out of Baylor. Jung and Wendzel were widely considered two of the top five college infielders available in the draft.
Considering that six of the eight college infielders drafted ahead of him have made their major league debut, Wendzel's third season in Triple-A could be viewed as a disappointment, but injuries and being used around the infield has really stalled his progression. That's changed this year.
As his Round Rock team hosted El Paso beginning May 17, Wendzel was hitting .194/.332/.324. Since, he's exploded with a .327/.431/.792 line and 13 home runs while posting a 14% walk rate and 24% strikeout rate.
VERDICT: The Rangers have been bringing up strong bats as needed, but the MLB team has significant depth at all of the positions that Wendzel handles well. That said, he's doing it at Triple-A and could quickly be in the majors if the Rangers were to use him as part of a deadline deal.
Top Pitcher Prospects
Statistical highlights:
- Innings pitched: 1. Michael McGreevy 72 2/3, 2 (tie). Luis Palacios and Allan Winans 72, 4 (tie). Mitch Spence and Shaddon Peavyhouse 70 2/3, 6. Brian Van Belle 70.
- Lowest BB/9 (min. 30 IP): 1. Marcus Johnson 0.73, 2. James Meeker 0.79, 3. Ben Sears 0.79, 4. Cole Irvin 0.86, 5. Zebby Matthews 0.88, 6. Pierson Ohl 0.88.
Pitcher Prospect Outlooks: Fantasy Six-Pack
Brian Van Belle, SP, Boston Red Sox
The Boston Red Sox signed Van Belle as an undrafted free agent out of Miami after the 2020 shortened draft. Known for a dynamic changeup, Van Belle was undrafted due to a low-90s fastball and a below-average curve as his other offerings at draft time.
Van Belle has worked to develop his pitches, gaining shape on his fastball and improving the command and control on his 12-6 curve, allowing him to pound the strike zone with an easily repeatable delivery. However, after finishing out 2022 in Double-A and posting a 5.31 combined ERA over 137 1/3 innings, most assumed Van Belle would be a filler arm in the minors.
This season, the fastball and curve have continued to be located well, but Van Belle has done well adding a second grip to his change that offers two different looks and has led to a ton of poor contact. Van Belle's easy delivery has allowed him to be one of the top innings guys in the minors this year and he's posted a 1.50 ERA over three starts so far in June, posting a 16/5 K/BB rate.
VERDICT: Van Belle is likely going to be more valuable in real life than in fantasy as a backend starter that chews up innings. While he's working himself into plans for 2023 in Boston, his ultimate fantasy value will likely be low as he's going to have a low strikeout rate and lacks overwhelming stuff. Watch for now, but be ready to pounce at backend starter value if he's called up.
Kyle Harrison, SP, San Francisco Giants
Considered one of the top prep arms available in the 2020 draft, Harrison fell to the Giants in the third round as he sought a big signing bonus to pass over his commitment to UCLA. The Giants met those demands, signing Harrison for just short of a $2.5 million bonus.
Harrison's mid-90s fastball has led his offerings, a dominant pitch from the left side with the rise that he gets on the pitch and his low release point. He pairs that with a plus sweeping slider and an average change.
Control has been the bugaboo for Harrison in the minors, even as he's been one of the most dominant pitchers in the minors the past few seasons. This year, control was an issue as he opened the season again. However, he's dropped his walk rate each month this season while striking out an incredible amount of hitters. Over the last month, he's posted a 1.74 ERA over five starts with a 33/10 K/BB rate.
VERDICT: Harrison's improved control of late puts him squarely at the top of the list of the next elite arm to be called up. He is a guy that should be owned in redraft leagues as well as dynasties.
Clayton Beeter, SP, New York Yankees
The Dodgers drafted Beeter in the second round of the 2020 draft out of Texas Tech. He posted impressive strikeout rates in 2021 and early 2022 with the Dodgers, though his control has been an issue. The Dodgers made him the sole return for the Yankees in the Joey Gallo deal last season.
This year, the Yankees have allowed Beeter to work deeper into games, and his command has significantly improved as the season has carried on. He has a 9% walk rate in June, which would be the lowest of his career by far. His 38% strikeout rate in that time has been incredible as well.
Working with an elite-spinning fastball that sits in the mid-90s and touches 98. His slider is incredible and he has the ability to vary it from a short, sharp pitch to a sweeper. His changeup is a below-average pitch overall, but he's improved the location of it significantly, which has allowed it to at least generate weak contact.
VERDICT: Beeter is going to be jumping up midseason prospect lists, and if you want to own a share, you may need to get him now. He's a definite own in deep dynasty leagues, and in shallow dynasty leagues, he should at least be considered for a roster slot.
Spencer Arrighetti, SP, Houston Astros
The Astros selected Arrighetti in the sixth round of the 2021 draft out of Louisiana-Lafayette. He had journeyed from Texas Christian to junior college and then to Lafayette in a college career with plenty of travel miles.
Working with a low-90s fastball and a group of secondary options that Arrighetti knew how to spot for effectiveness rather than finding success due to the raw shape or velocity of the pitches, Arrighetti had some funk in his delivery and seemed a perfect fit with an Astros' system that seems to specialize in exactly his profile. Sure enough, Arrighetti has seen the velocity on his fastball tick up to 93-94 consistently with a tremendous ride on the pitch, and his secondaries have each improved notably.
The reliever concern with Arrighetti is still there due to the way the Astros piggyback arms, not always allowing for inning buildup in the minors. This season is erasing those worries for Arrighetti. He opened the season with an 11.05 ERA the first month in Double-A, but since the calendar flipped to May, he's posted a 1.76 ERA and a 0.88 WHIP while striking out 59 in 41 innings, putting him firmly on the map for a potential callup to the big leagues.
VERDICT: The Astros recently shuffled the rotation at the big league level and are seeking a fit to defend their 2022 title. With injuries lingering in the big league rotation, Arrighetti is beginning to look like a very viable option on a pennant-focused club. He should be rostered in deep dynasties, and he's on the cusp of being viable in all dynasty formats.
Cade Horton, SP, Chicago Cubs
The two biggest surprises in the top 10 of last summer's draft were the Rangers picking Kumar Rocker third and the Cubs snagging Horton with the seventh overall selection. Many believed that Horton's record-setting performance in the College World Series final with 13 strikeouts put him on the map for an early selection despite minimal college mound time due to Tommy John surgery.
Adding a cutter led to Horton's late-season college run that pushed his draft stock into the top 10 in the draft. Horton spent most of his time in the infield, though he wasn't really a draft prospect at the plate.
The Cubs started Horton at Low-A this season after he missed a number of weeks due to the Cubs easing him in as the 2022 season was his first back from Tommy John. He had a couple of rough starts upon his promotion to High-A, but over the last month, he's posted a 2.12 ERA, 0.77 WHIP, and an astonishing 33/3 K/BB across 17 innings.
VERDICT:
Horton's stuff is incredible, to say the least. He's got a future as a top-shelf starter or dominant closer, though with his arm health in question, where he'll end up is still in question. Certainly, he should be owned in any dynasty league, but he's far enough away that ownership in redraft is not needed...yet.
Tyler Stuart, SP, New York Mets
A sixth-round pick last summer out of Southern Miss, most recognize Stuart's giant 6'9", 250-pound frame. Most saw a quick-moving reliever based on Stuart's background as a college reliever, but the Mets immediately made Stuart a starter, which lengthened his path to the majors.
Stuart opened the 2023 season in High-A Brooklyn, and he leads full-season qualified pitchers with a 1.47 ERA. He uses his low arm angle and height in combination to get very unique shape on his 93-94 MPH fastball, sweeping slider, and change. He struggled in college to maintain command in back-to-back appearances out of the bullpen, but that has been ironed out thus far.
While Stuart has an 8.5% walk rate over the 2023 season, he's seen his walk rate go from 10.7% in April to 9% in May to an impressive 6% in June through three starts, striking out 19 over 16 innings.
VERDICT: Stuart needs to pass the upper minors test, but once he can achieve that, he'll be a prospect to take very seriously, even though he doesn't have the pedigree as most fantasy-worthy starters. Hold for now, but definitely keep him on the watch list.
Check back again next week for more evaluations and look behind the numbers!
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