RADIO
Benjamin looks at top MLB prospect risers for Fantasy Baseball Week 27 (2023). He shares his minor league hitters and pitchers to know as fantasy and dynasty sleepers.
After focusing on playoff teams in A-ball in last week's edition, this week we're focused on the upper minors and a host of players who are playing in the playoffs for upper minors (Double-A and Triple-A) teams.
Triple-A only has two leagues, so we are taking players from three of the four guaranteed teams and two that were competing until the last regular season day Sunday for a spot. It also gives two-time defending Triple-A national champion Durham two spots on the six-packs today. We'll be back next week to cover all of the Arizona Fall League participants that have not yet been covered among the nearly 400 players mentioned in this piece this year!
Look here for insight on potential fantasy baseball dynasty league pickups before they hit and to get to know players as they ascend to the major leagues!
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Top Hitter Prospects
Statistical highlights:
- Doubles: 1 (tie). Austin Shenton and Coby Mayo 45, 3. Devin Mann 42, 4 (tie). Rafael Lantigua and Connor Norby 40.
- Walks: 1. Justyn-Henry Malloy 110, 2. Jett Williams 104, 3. Harry Ford 103, 4. Jesus Castillo 102, 5 (tie). Termarr Johnson and Jackson Holliday 101.
Hitter Prospect Outlooks: Fantasy Six-Pack
Caleb Roberts, C/OF, Arizona Diamondbacks
Roberts was originally selected in the fifth round of the 2021 draft by the Diamondbacks out of the University of North Carolina. While he had played extensively behind the plate during summer ball, Roberts' total time catching for the Tar Heels consisted of three games over three seasons.
Roberts is certainly a better athlete than the average catcher, which made the D'backs' decision to get him time behind the plate somewhat confusing. His excellent arm has translated into a strong presence in the run game while he picks up other aspects of the position. As with many catchers, the first couple of seasons in the minors are focused on the defensive side of the game, often leaving the bat behind.
This year, his bat has been the story as Roberts is slashing .278/.383/.523 with Amarillo, pounding out 48 extra-base hits and stealing 11 bases. He's primarily played catcher and left field, but he's also seen time in right field and at first base.
VERDICT: Roberts is still extremely raw and unpolished behind the plate, but his lefty stick and his ability to play elsewhere in the field could allow him to push for playing time in Arizona as quickly as midseason next year. The ceiling on the bat is fairly mediocre, however, so no need to add him right now.
James Triantos, 2B, Chicago Cubs
Triantos got plenty of hype as the 2021 draft got closer out of high school in Virginia. When the Cubs nabbed the righty-swinging Triantos in the second round, many thought they'd nabbed a steal. Baseball Prospectus even had him tagged as their #101 prospect in their annual list after an impressive showing in his pro debut where he hit .327/.376/.594 in 25 complex league games.
With expectations high, many were disappointed in Triantos' 2022. He spent the entire year with Single-A Myrtle Beach, slashing .272/.335/.386 with seven home runs and 20 stolen bases. However, a big part of his work that season was figuring out that third base was not likely to be a long-term home for him, and at just 19, that was a very good way to spend one year of development.
This season, Triantos made the move from the hot corner to second base, though he also played center field as well. His hands work well on the infield, but his throws are simply inconsistent and his first step may be on the slow side to stick in the dirt. Triantos earned his way to Double-A Tennessee just in time for a playoff run, finishing the regular season with a .287/.364/.391 slash line.
VERDICT: Triantos really took a jump forward in controlling the strike zone this year and has one of the best hit tools in the entire Cubs organization. Finding him a defensive home continues to be the holdup, though he handled the outfield quite well and could see more time there next year. He is a deep league add only at this time.
Ruben Cardenas, OF, Tampa Bay Rays
After a solid, albeit not spectacular, career for Cal State-Fullerton, Cardenas was selected in the 16th round in 2018 by Cleveland. The Rays acquired Cardenas at the 2019 deadline in an under-radar deal that sent Christian Arroyo and Hunter Wood to Cleveland.
Like all other minor leaguers, Cardenas missed the 2020 season due to the pandemic, which put him behind the curve as far as age and level are concerned. He has produced ever since, smashing 66 home runs over the past three seasons in 325 games. He's not just a pure power bat. Cardenas has shown speed on the bases (better base runner than stealer, however) and handled both corner outfield spots tremendously well defensively, even passing in center.
Cardenas hit well for Durham this season, slashing .269/.358/.475 with 22 home runs, but he also saw his strikeout rate jump to 26% roughly five points above his career minor league mark coming into the season.
VERDICT: Cardenas has the defensive chops and power from the right side that could allow him to work as a bench bat, and the Rays have been known for milking the maximum out of a profile like his. He's not likely a full-time starter, however, so no need to hold onto him in any level of dynasty league.
JT Schwartz, 1B, New York Mets
After flirting with .400 for much of his draft season at UCLA, Schwartz was selected by the Mets in the fourth round of the 2021 draft. The 6'4" lefty swinger had a reputation for extremely high contact rates but surprisingly mediocre power for his physical size.
In 2022, Schwartz was assigned to High-A Brooklyn. He showed both sides of his reputation, keeping his strikeouts under control and hitting .273, but also only hitting six balls out of the park. He's struggled through injuries in 2023, but overall, he's slashed .305/.392/.432 over 72 games, with 17 doubles and four home runs. He's spent most of the year with Double-A Binghamton.
Schwartz is headed to the Arizona Fall League once the playoffs are done, so he'll get a chance to continue working on his outfield defense, as he tried working in the corner outfield this season to give him more flexibility. His long legs work well covering the field, but he's not exactly a high-end sprint-speed sort of player on the grass.
VERDICT: Schwartz profiles similar to Mark Grace, who was fairly valuable in fantasy in his career. The issue will be holding onto a spot in the lineup if he's not providing legit over-fence power. Keep a close eye on him in AFL, though, as he's the type of profile that can take a big leap forward during that league.
Jonathan Ornelas, SS, Texas Rangers
The Rangers selected Ornelas in the third round out of high school in Arizona in 2018. He's flown under the radar for much of his time in the minor leagues, rarely mentioned among the top prospects in Texas' system.
Part of that could have to do with Ornelas not exactly having a defensive home. While he's played the majority of his games at shortstop, he's also played second, third, and center as he's worked up the Rangers' system, showing impressive hands at short but perhaps not the range one would prefer.
Offensively, Ornelas profiles as a guy who will get on base, show strong contact skills, and generally not hurt an offense, but he's also not likely going to steal 20+ bases or hit 15 home runs in the big leagues. With the lack of a long-term position, he certainly fits a utility profile.
VERDICT: Ornelas made his major league debut this year, but only tallied eight plate appearances in eight games before heading back to Round Rock to help with the playoff push. He's a deep league guy only because he's MLB-ready at this point and he should offer positional flexibility going forward. Otherwise, no reason to hold him right now.
Adrian Del Castillo, C, Arizona Diamondbacks
Coming into the 2021 college season, many figured Del Castillo would have a huge season at the plate for the University of Miami and compete for the top overall draft pick. Instead, the booming power that he displayed during his first two years of school wasn't there, and the catcher fell to the second round to the Diamondbacks.
Del Castillo struggled to make consistent contact in his pro debut that summer, slashing .244/.341/.410 in 24 games between complex and Single-A. He followed that up with a .210/.296/.352 line between High-A and Double-A in 2022. Needless to say, the expectations had sunk fairly low for the lefty swinger coming into 2023.
Pushed up to Double-A to open the season and earning a promotion to Triple-A along the way, Del Castillo responded with an impressive offensive campaign, hitting .263/.369/.445 with 14 home runs in 100 games while keeping his swing and miss in check. His strong arm also showed well behind the plate, though his framing and blocking are still below average.
VERDICT: The Diamondbacks suddenly have a fairly deep system of backstops behind one of the best young catchers in the game, Gabriel Moreno. Del Castillo could certainly work as a bat-first backup as soon as next season, but that only gives him value in two-catcher leagues or in very deep dynasty leagues right now.
Top Pitcher Prospects
Statistical highlights:
- Games pitched: 1 (tie). Brandon Eisert, Gerson Moreno, and Ryan Nutof 59; 4. Evan Sisk 58, 5. Nick Avila 56.
- Games started: 1 (tie). Blake Walston and Jay Groome 30; 3 (tie). Robbert Dugger, Mitch Spence, Mason Montgomery, and Mason Black 29.
Pitcher Prospect Outlooks: Fantasy Six-Pack
Jorge Benitez, RP, Seattle Mariners
As they were rebuilding the organization's pitching depth, Seattle selected the Puerto Rican lefty Benitez in the ninth round in 2017 out of high school. He was one of nine pitchers selected in the first 12 rounds that season by the Mariners, with four of those arms already reaching the majors.
The 6'2" Benitez was always extremely lean and had issues getting his body in sync. In 2019, the Mariners began transitioning him to a bullpen role, something he did permanently after the pandemic year shut things down in 2020. After struggles in his first year out of the 'pen in 2021, Benitez took to the role in 2022, pitching across both A-ball levels, posting a 2.96 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, and 62 strikeouts over 48 2/3 innings.
This season, Benitez was absolutely lights out to open the year, and he's continued his strong work after being promoted to Double-A Arkansas, quickly establishing himself as one of the best lefty relievers in the minors, with a 1.95 ERA and 82 strikeouts over 64 2/3 innings.
VERDICT: A low-slot lefty with a breaking pitch as his best pitch, Benitez is not likely to end up in the back of a bullpen, but he could be a guy who tallies plenty of holds in leagues that count those. No reason to hold him in a dynasty, though.
Lael Lockhart, SP, Detroit Tigers
A two-way standout for the University of Houston, Lockhart was drafted by the Dodgers in the ninth round in 2021 after one season fully focusing on pitching for the University of Arkansas. He had shown solid all-around stuff in that year for the Razorbacks, but it was clear that the lefty had a lot of work to do on the mound.
Lockhart tossed 111 2/3 innings between High-A and Double-A in 2022, posting 114 strikeouts and a 3.71 ERA. This year, he struggled with injury and returned to the bullpen to open the season, prompting the Dodgers to trade him to Detroit.
The change in scenery agreed with Lockhart, and he took off for Erie, becoming one of the Tigers' best starters in Double-A. On the year, he's posted a 4.13 ERA over 93 2/3 innings with 112 strikeouts, posting an impressive 2.69 ERA over 73 2/3 innings with Erie.
VERDICT: Lockhart has a strong four-pitch mix, but he sometimes loses the release point for his pitches, leaving him to lean heavily on his fastball. When all of his stuff is working, it's easy to see a mid-rotation lefty arm, but right now, it's best to leave him but keep a close eye on his development.
River Ryan, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers
Like Lockhart, Ryan was a two-way player through his college years, though he was drafted by the Padres in the 11th round of the 2021 draft after playing both ways for UNC-Pembroke during his draft season. The Padres moved him to the mound, but only in fall instructs.
The Dodgers acquired Ryan late in spring training last season for infielder Matt Beaty and watched Ryan show well in his pro debut, pitching 47 2/3 innings between both A-ball levels, striking out 70, and posting a 2.45 ERA. The Dodgers worked to put more innings on Ryan's arm this year, and he totaled 104 1/3 innings between Double-A and Triple-A, striking out 110 and posting a 3.80 ERA.
Ryan is an impressive athlete who can touch 97 with his fastball that has excellent late rise. He also works in a cutter, curve, and change that all sit in the average range, but when he mixes them well, he's hard to square up.
VERDICT: Though his athleticism allows him to adapt quickly on the mound, there is still plenty of reliever risk with Ryan. He should get an opportunity in LA in 2024, though likely in a bullpen role. He is worth a deep dynasty roster spot, but probably too much reliever risk to grab in mid-size or shallow leagues.
Justin Armbruester, SP, Baltimore Orioles
After a solid, though not exceptional, run at the University of New Mexico after he transferred before the 2020 season, the Orioles snagged Armbruester in the 12th round of the 2021 draft. The 6'4" righty has an ideal pitcher's build with broad shoulders and hips.
After making appearances out of the bullpen in his pro debut, Armbruester spent most of 2022 in the rotation between High-A and Double-A, tossing 117 innings with 126 strikeouts and a 3.85 ERA. He's put up similar numbers between Double-A and Triple-A this year, posting a 3.56 ERA and 109 strikeouts over 121 1/3 innings.
The big righty came into pro ball with a strong mid-90s fastball, a plus slider, and a raw, but impressive, cutter. He's worked on a change that has taken a bit of a split look to it this year. When he struggles to locate the change, he can be hit hard, as indicated by 36 home runs allowed in less than 250 minor league innings.
VERDICT: Were Armbruester to move to the bullpen full-time, he could have a dominant relief repertoire, but Baltimore will try to get all they can out of him as a starter before making that move. Only worry about him in deep dynasty leagues until he has a consistent change or moves to the 'pen.
Mason Montgomery, SP, Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays plucked Montgomery out of Texas Tech in the sixth round of the 2021 draft. The 6'2" lefty made five appearances in his draft year and blew away evaluators, posting a 0.84 ERA and 0.47 WHIP over 10 2/3 innings, with a 20/1 K/BB ratio.
That led to an impressive 2022 where Montgomery competed for the minor league ERA title throughout the season as he moved from High-A to Double-A, pitching 124 innings with a 2.10 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, and a 171/43 K/BB. This year, the numbers weren't quite as stunning, but were still solid between Double-A and Triple-A, with a 3.98 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, and a 144/60 K/BB over 124 1/3 innings.
Montgomery uses his deceptive delivery to allow his average stuff across the board to play up. He works with a fastball that sits in the low 90s and touches 96-97. His best secondary offering is a plus change and he adds in an above-average slider that he can shape and also add and subtract to in velocity.
VERDICT: At the least, Montgomery works as a mid-rotation arm from the left side. With just a tick more velocity in his fastball or another look in his repertoire, Montgomery could jump to a #2/#3 type. He should be owned in deep and mid-sized leagues, with shallow leagues at least keeping a close eye on him.
Luarbert Arias, RP, Miami Marlins
The San Diego Padres signed Arias out of Venezuela in 2017. The Padres pushed Arias to stateside complex to begin his pro career in 2018, pitching 43 2/3 innings with a 3.50 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, and a 37/11 K/BB.
Arias pitched across complex ball and short-season ball in 2019, tossing 56 1/3 innings with a 3.51 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, and a 64/10 K/BB. After missing the 2020 season due to the pandemic, Arias moved to the bullpen, with mixed results in his first year, posting a 3.86 ERA and 1.29 WHIP over 32 2/3 innings with a 57/21 K/BB. He was plucked off the minor league portion of the Rule 5 draft by the Miami Marlins that offseason.
The Marlins moved the righty across both A-ball levels in 2022 with 72 strikeouts over 58 innings. He then opened this year in High-A before working his way up to Double-A. He tossed 58 2/3 innings out of the bullpen with a 1.84 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, and a 78/15 K/BB ratio.
VERDICT: Arias relies on command and control of his 92-94 MPH fastball and hard curve, but when he is able to locate both pitches well, he can generate plenty of swing-and-miss and ground balls. He does not have the top-shelf velocity desired from the backend of a bullpen, however, so he's best left alone in dynasty leagues.
Check back again next week for more evaluations and look behind the numbers!
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