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Antonio Losada evaluates ADP data related to deep fantasy football leagues and comes up with tight ends that can become valuable TE sleepers in 16-plus team leagues and formats.
You may have already seen my deep-league draft targets at wide receiver and quarterback. We can't forget the most glamorous of all positions - the tight end!
I define a deep league as one in which at least 16 teams take part. That means that each draft round would consist of 16 picks and that there would be 240 (15 rounds multiplied by 16 teams) players drafted overall. So for this exercise, I will be looking at players with ADPs over 240 using a dataset comprised of data from drafts based on leagues with such structure. The data comes from PPR-format leagues, and whenever I mention stats, projections, and fantasy points those would all be spoken of on the basis of that format.
Here is a look at four tight ends that can be considered sleepers in super deep, 16-plus teams leagues. Keep an eye on them and track their presence on the draft board as they can become interesting pieces down the road during the development of the 2020 season!
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Jimmy Graham, Chicago Bears
ADP: 249
Graham's two-year tenure in Green Bay was far from great. He kept up his playing time by not missing any game but his statistics dropped all across the board. While Graham was able to rack up 636 receiving yards in 2018 he could only muster 447 last season while catching three touchdowns. He only logged 38 receptions (the lowest number since his rookie season) and barely reached 60 targets. Entering his age-34 season, Graham's best days are truly over.
That being said, though, there is no position like that of the tight end in fantasy football. Outside of the Big Three of Travis Kelce, George Kittle, and Zach Ertz, there is nothing sure about what any TE will do in any given year. Even Graham's middling 2019 was good for him to end as the TE21 on the year with 100.7 fantasy points becoming one of only 18 tight ends to top 445 yards (while logging the fewest targets among them with just 63). That, in deep leagues, is pretty much a TE1 in all senses of the concept.
To that, I must add that Graham has flipped Green Bay for Chicago this offseason and that, for one more year, he will be the TE1 of an NFL offense and there is not even a discussion about that--the Bears other tight ends are Cole Kmet and Demetrius Harris.
Even if Graham doesn't surpass his 2019 numbers (PFF projects him for 400 yards on 35 receptions and three touchdowns), he is one of only two tight ends in the league (along with Tyler Eifert) expected to get the most targets at the position with an ADP of 240 or worse. He also leads all tight ends with a 240-plus ADP in projected PPR (91.5) next season (Eifert is second with 72.1).
Tyler Eifert, Jacksonville Jaguars
ADP: 259
Speaking of Graham and Efiert, here we are. By now we all know the defining trait of Tyler Eifert: shaky health and a frustrating career. Eifert played 15 games as a rookie, then one, then 13, then 8-2-4, and finally 16 again last season to finish the year with 106.6 PPR to best the 100-mark for the first time since he scored 191.5 all the way back in 2015. The talent is undeniable, and Eifert has everything to put up good numbers anywhere, only injuries have always kept him out of the gridiron and prevented him from being a true fantasy darling.
While not a surefire league winner, a healthy Eifert can be considered a steady 10-point player in fantasy football. That production dropped last season (436 yards on 43 receptions and three touchdowns), but in back-to-back seasons in 2015 and 2016 he was able to average 14.7 and 12.3 PPG, which is nothing too crazy to think he can do in 2020.
Eifert is changing the only team he's ever known for the Jaguars, and along with Graham is the only "real-life TE1" available after the 240th spot going by ADP in deep-league drafts. Eifert should be good to reach at least 30 receptions and 300 yards with a few touchdowns and he shouldn't have any competition in Jacksonville.
Ryan Griffin, New York Jets
ADP: 251
The upside of Griffin comes mostly from the downside of Chris Herndon. I am the first man rooting for the latter to succeed, but no single soul has any idea what Herndon truly is. As a rookie in 2018, Herndon played all 16 games and caught 39 passes for 502 yards and four touchdowns. He was a noticeable first-year player and he showed quite some promise. The problem with Herndon, though, came when he was suspended for the start of the 2019 season, and then, once he came back, he fell down to injury, missing the year virtually in its entirety.
Herndon was never truly healthy, and although those problems should be on the rearview mirror by the start of next season, we don't really know if that's the case. Assuming Herndon goes down and misses more time, Griffin would enter the picture as he's New York's TE2 and the first in line to back up Herndon. Griffin is a veteran entering his age-30 season but he was solid while in Houston and last year playing for the Jets. He caught 34 passes for 320 yards in 2019 and was able to score five touchdowns even on such low volume.
Even if Griffin's numbers regress a bit (PFF projections put him at 28 receptions for 254 yards and 2 TDs on a secondary role, assuming Herndon is healthy) he should still provide some value as a TE2 and in the case, Herndon is injured again his numbers would undoubtedly double. For the price you'll be paying and given how volatile tight end production is, you lose nothing getting some of Griffin's shares.
Gerald Everett, Los Angeles Rams
ADP: 277
If only because of the last five games of last season, Tyler Higbee should be the Rams leading tight end in 2020. Higbee was able to rack up fantasy points in that span like no one else (he averaged 21.4 from Week 13 to 17) and he out-scored Everett 160.4 to 89.8 over the full season. It was a tale of two halves, though, as Everett put up 14.8-plus PRR points four times from Week 4 to Week 10 while Higbee only topped eight PPR once before Week 13.
While Higbee finished 2019 riding a hot streak, who's to say he will keep it going in 2020? Again, never trust a tight end in fantasy football. Everett slots as the TE2 of Los Angeles at this very moment, but that could change in a hurry. Even with that secondary role on offense at the position, PFF sees a 230-plus yard, 21-reception, multi-touchdown player in Everett.
Everett is one of just four tight ends that project to score two or more touchdowns while playing a TE2 role in their teams, and the one expected to catch passes for the third-most yard among that TE2-group. Everett will get his chances, and if he can show enough as to convince the Rams he's on a better condition than Higbee at any point during the season the roles could easily reverse in no time between them.
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