The Deepest Dive: RB Sleepers in 16+ Team Leagues

July 5, 2021

Antonio Losada evaluates ADP data related to super-deep 16-plus team leagues and looks at three players at the RB position than can ultimately become valuable sleepers in these leagues and formats.

Following up on our earlier look at wide receiver sleepers and quarterback sleepers for deep leagues, it's time to look at running backs.

Fantasy leagues can be as large as the commish wants them too, but for our purposes, we're going to define a deep league as one in which at least 16 teams take part. That means each draft round would consist of 16 picks and there would be 240 (15 rounds multiplied by 16 teams) players drafted overall. So for this exercise, I will be looking at players with ADPs over 240 using a dataset comprised of data from drafts based on leagues with such structure. The data comes from PPR-format leagues, and whenever I mention stats, projections, and fantasy points, those would all be spoken of on the basis of that format.

Here is a look at three running backs that can be considered sleepers in super deep, 16+ team leagues. Keep an eye on them and track their presence on the draft board as they can become interesting pieces down the road during the development of the 2021 season!

Sony Michel, New England Patriots

ADP: 282

You're going to hate me just for the fact that I included an RBBC member--from the Patriots, on top of that--in this column. Give me a minute, though. Michel could only play eight games for the Pats last season while "starting" six of them (which means he played barely one-third of the campaign as a full-time, fully available asset). Michel was pretty much your classic running back, averaging almost nine carries per game but just one target weekly, of which he only converted one into a touchdown.

New England is once more expected to feature at least three rushers throughout the 2021 season with the chance of adding a fourth warm body to the backfield in rookie Rhamondre Stevenson. Michel looks like the RB3 of this squad, though he will be sharing rushing-play duties with Damien Harris while James White takes on the bulk of the Pats' pass-plays.

The thing with those three is that Michel, while not projected to a top-50 finish, is still (via PFF) expected to close 2021 with at least 90+ FP and the distance in ADP between the three RBs is massive. Harris is getting drafted as the RB34, White the RB54, and Michel the RB68--even after Rhamondre Stevenson's RB58. The projected ROI to come from Michel is sky-high and it would take just a few good performances from him to take on a larger role that sees his upside go up and Michel enter the RB3/FLEX realm. For those with holes at the position late in drafts, Michel is far from your worst option.

Darrel Williams, Kansas City Chiefs

ADP: 242

Although the Chiefs added RB Jerick McKinnon to the fold, the main threat to Darrel Williams' upside comes down to second-year man (and 2020 over-hyped/over-drafted rusher) Clyde Edwards-Helaire. McKinnon was a beast for the first nine weeks of last season, but his usage was buried from Week 10 on and he never topped 6.2 PPR points.

The last thing we've heard about Edwards-Helaire is related to his pass-catching prowess and how he's trying to get better at it in order to rack up even more touches and opportunities in Kansas City's offense. So far, though, it'd be reasonable to expect him to just bull-rush the rock while the likes of Williams and McKinnon take on pass-play snaps.

Edwards-Helaire logged 55 targets with Williams getting 26. Williams was a low-usage player but efficient when at it considering the very low amount of touches he got. His best numbers came on the receiving department, as he would have ranked eighth among RBs with at least 400 snaps in that department had he qualified for it. Limited upside, although it's boosted by the fact that KC is much better in the passing game than the rushing game and boasts the best QB in the whole league.

Malcolm Brown, Miami Dolphins

ADP: 264

It's been literal ages since the last time we got news coming out of the Dolphins' training camp, back in mid-May. Those bits of information (the ones related to the backfield) involved RB1 Myles Gaskin talking about an upcoming "much different" offensive playbook being used in Miami compared to last season's. Is that better for Gaskin, or for newly-acquired Brown?

The consensus says 2021 will be all about Gaskin after the Fins didn't add any strong rushers last draft, but Brown is flying quite under the radar these days. Brown wasn't used a lot in his Rams days until last season, when he first broke for more than 75 opportunities and touches, finishing the year with a bulky 101 carries (419 yards, five touchdowns) and 33 targets (23 receptions, 162 yards). Miami rushed the ball 43% of the time last year, but given the context of all 32 franchises in the year 2020, it's hard to know what Gaskin meant with his words: Miami ranked right in the middle of the pack in rushing percentage.

While Gaskin has provided a capable target, Brown is more of a pure rusher--or at least that is how LA used him. No matter what happens with Tua/Gaskin on the ground, Brown still should be good for his near-100 rushing attempts (PFF has him projected to 95) and 400+ rushing yards to go with four or five scores. Brown's projected ROI is the seventh-highest among players with ADPs at-or-below 115, and the highest for rushers getting off the board after the 245th pick. Brown projects to finish RB56, which should be good for a high-end FLEX/RB4 finish in deeper, 16-team formats.

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