RADIO
Fantasy is always unpredictable, especially in this most unparalleled of seasons. Even the best players put up dud performances. Not all duds are created equal though. Some disastrous performances are signs of more to come. Here are Week 9's studs turned duds.
The outdated thought in fantasy was that running backs carry the top end of a team, while the depth of wide receiver allowed managers to use many more options from that position. The latter remains true, but the former no longer is. There is no top end of the running back position. In Week 9, scoring a touchdown pretty much put a player into the upper echelon of the RB position and avoid dud status. That is how bad the landscape currently is. Only two guys topped 18 points in full PPR. TWO.
Compare that to a whopping 18 wide receivers who broke the same threshold, with John Brown finishing 0.1 points from making it 19. The same disparity exists for the season at large. There are two elite running backs and barely a top tier after them. Through nine games, only six backs have topped 135 points (an arbitrary but competent 15 per week). 12 WRs meet the same parameters, with a 13th coming up 0.16 points short.
That disparity works its way down the two positions regardless of the cutoff point. It has left us with barely any healthy stud RBs this season and a lot of receivers who can put up WR1 performances but don't rise above the cluster week in and week out. There are too many good ones. Of course, when a dud performance does come from one of those bonafide studs, it is supremely disheartening. Just remember that not all duds are created equal. Some disastrous performances are signs of more to come. Here are Week 9's studs turned duds.
Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans
Henry is the RB that starts the second tier of the position after the two elites. He does this in full PPR even though he is a zero in the passing game. His lack of pass catching makes him a bit touchdown dependent, with a slightly low ceiling, albeit high floor thanks to usage. He had scored eight touchdowns in the first seven games, topping 100 yards four times already. But Week 9 brought his first truly dud performance of the season. He averaged just 3.2 yards per carry on 21 totes and didn't catch a single pass.
The Chicago run defense can be blamed, but things hardly get easier the next few weeks. Tennessee's next three games come against Indianapolis, Baltimore, and Indy again. Those are two of the best defenses in football and could make it tough sledding for Henry this entire month. Things lighten up the final quarter of the regular season, which is great for Henry managers in the fantasy playoffs. They may just have to overcome some underwhelming results in November.
DeAndre Hopkins, Arizona Cardinals
Like Henry, Week 9 was Hopkins' first real dud performance of the season. He finished with three targets, three catches, and just 30 yards. It was his first time seeing fewer than seven targets all year, and that can be attributed to the Miami coverage. The Dolphins' secondary didn't leave Hopkins with much breathing room. That included committing a few pass interference penalties against him, which helps in real life but does nothing for his fantasy managers unless they play in very rare leagues that count such success.
Hopkins is just fine moving forward. Coming up are some leaky defenses that should reveal many more openings for Hopkins and the Cardinals. Most immediately, Buffalo and Seattle are 25th and 31st respectively in yards allowed.
Adam Thielen, Minnesota Vikings
Last week, I said that Thielen should be fine moving forward. His dud performance was just a case of Minnesota going Dalvin Cook-heavy and leaving nothing for anyone else. I didn't foresee that exact outcome happening twice in a row and Cook now leading the league in rushing yards and total touchdowns despite missing one game and already have a bye week to boot.
The Vikings are now second in the league in run play percentage and are one of just three teams to run more than half the time. The other two above 50 percent are Baltimore and New England, who happen to have two of the most talented running quarterbacks in the sport. Minnesota...does not share that quality. This offense is Cook or bust, which leaves Thielen outside of stud status from here on out. Even though he remains the team's number-one receiving option, we can't reliably expect them to pass enough for that to matter.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Everything that could go wrong did for Tampa Bay this past week. It started with Tom Brady's worst game of the year. He completed 57.9 percent of his passes, barely cracked 200 yards through the air, and threw three picks with no scores. We also saw the first dud performance from Chris Godwin. Godwin had been limited to five games because of injury, but the one thing managers could count on was if Godwin was healthy enough to go, he was a stud. That fell apart here.
We don't even know if Antonio Brown's presence had a large impact on his teammates' fantasy figures because the entire offense cratered. However, the offense wasn't alone. We also witnessed one of the worst games from arguably the best defense in the game. Before this, the Tampa Bay defense was second in the NFL in fantasy, trailing only Indianapolis. The Bucs responded with the worst game from any elite defense, scoring negative fantasy points (depending on league settings). That dropped them out of the top three defenses.
Such bad games can be moved on from in real life. There were scheme and execution issues. No one believes TB is suddenly a terrible franchise. Fantasy managers should write this one off as well. It was just one of those games.
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