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Mike Kurland identifies third base sleepers and deep-league draft targets for 2021 fantasy baseball. These 3B could provide strong draft value based on ADP.
Fantasy managers are always on the lookout for the sleeper that can turn into a breakout performer. I've already reviewed the best deep sleepers at second base, so now let's turn to third base.
When defining a breakout, I look at it as a player that can take a step forward to a level they never reached before. This doesn't mean it has to be a "sleeper" or someone who hasn't enjoyed any success in the majors yet. It simply means they have yet to reach their ceiling.
ADP data is taken from NFBC drafts since December 1, 2020.
Eduardo Escobar, Arizona Diamondbacks
ADP: 309.74
Eduardo Escobar was a player that was expected to regress from the big year he had in 2019. The juiced ball really assisted the power that year and it was a clear outlier. However, we saw Escobar regress a little too much in 2020. He hit just .212 and four home runs. The counting stats were lackluster and there just was not a lot going for him. However, he did get unlucky.
The BABIP was a lowly .244. Escobar is not one for high BABIP but with a career .283 BABIP, he would’ve likely bounced back. The expected batting average (xBA) was .263. This is 51 points higher than the actual batting average and more in line with the career .257 hitter he is. The home runs should have been expected to regress as he was a 21 home run guy in 2017 and followed that up with 23 home runs in 2018 prior to the power explosion in 2019 where he posted the 35.
When looking deeper, some of the plate discipline and the power metrics were essentially in line with his 2019 production.
| Year | HH% | Avg. EV | K% | BB% |
| 2019 | 31.4 | 87.7 | 18.6 | 6.8 |
| 2020 | 31.7 | 88.6 | 18.5 | 6.8 |
The issue may have been the quality of contact as his barrel rate of 5.5% and Sweet Spot% of 34.8% were both the lowest marks since 2016. Escobar even improved on the contact rates across the board and in doing so cut down on the swing-and-miss. Part of the issue with the batting average could’ve been the increase in ground balls as he saw a small bump up to 36%. Again, the highest it has been since 2016.
Escobar is not flashy, but he should be hitting towards the middle of the order and playing every day. There is no reason he cannot get back to the 20-to-25 home run production while hitting .250-to-.260 in the process. That has its use in the deeper formats.
Edwin Rios, Los Angeles Dodgers
ADP 323.27
In case you missed me speaking on Edwin Rios in my 3B breakouts article, I am doubling down on Rios in the deep-league sleeper conversation. The Dodgers have yet to sign anyone to block him from playing regularly and the DH (if it comes) would only help solidify the at-bats.
Edwin Rios played just 32 games in 2020 after coming off 28 games at the Major League level the year before. The first notable change from 2019 to 2020 was the strikeout rate down dropped from 37.5% to just 21.7%. Rios also posted a .250 batting average but that was with a BABIP of just .216 so we know there should be positive regression there. However, the batting average could be a concern given his below-average contact rates and the swing-and-miss in his game. His SwStr% was 17.7% just this season and has consistently been at 13% or higher at most levels.
| Outcome | O-Swing% | Z-Swing% | Swing% | O-Contact% | Z-Contact% | Contact% | SwStr% |
| 2020 | 36% | 70.2% | 50.2% | 41.9% | 81.2% | 64.6% | 17.7% |
| League Avg. | 30.6% | 67.8% | 45.9% | 61.4% | 84.2% | 75.3% | 11.3% |
The exciting part of the profile is the power potential. Rios flashed power throughout the minors but really popped when he posted a total of 35 home runs between Triple-A and MLB that season. He followed that up with eight in just 32 games. The power gains he made appeared to have stuck.
Rios increased his average launch angle from just 5.4 degrees in 2019 to 14.5 degrees in 2020 and he continued to barrel the ball up great at 13.6%. The Sweet Spot rate of 40.7% was also good and above league average. The quality of contact can help combat the average contact skills and even the xBA suggested improvement as it was .285 and that was 35 points above the actual production. So between the low BABIP and expected batting average, it shows he can put up decent to good batting averages if he keeps the strikeouts in check. What will also help him continue to produce power is if he continues to keep the ball off the ground.
Luis Urias, Milwaukee Brewers
ADP: 401.48
Although Urias has yet to show it in the minors, there was always some fantasy-relevant skill set to his game. All through the minors he hit for high batting averages (typically at least .290) while stealing some bases and hitting home runs, always flirting with double digits in both but never quite reaching it. Then suddenly in 2019, Urias worked on his swing in the minors and started adding some power to the profile and posted 19 home runs in Triple-A that season and 23 total across two stops. Unfortunately, 2020 did not do him any favors as he hit just .239 with no home runs but did steal two bases. This came in part-time at-bats for most of the year.
He enters the 2021 season as the starting third baseman and with it should come regular playing time and at-bats. Prior to the issues with hitting for average at the MLB level, he consistently hit for good averages while striking out over 20% just once at any stop in the minors. The 26.7% strikeout rate doesn’t seem like something that should repeat given his plate discipline.
| Outcome | O-Swing% | Z-Swing% | Swing% | O-Contact% | Z-Contact%^ | Contact% | SwStr% |
| 2020 | 29.1% | 56.7% | 40.6% | 74.4% | 87% | 81.7% | 7.4% |
| League Avg. | 30.6% | 67.8% | 45.9% | 61.4% | 84.2% | 75.3% | 11.3% |
If anything, Urias might be better off if he were more aggressive. Regardless, these numbers suggest, the strikeouts won't continue to be an issue.
Something that did stick out and could hinder his power production is the launch angle dipped to just 2.3 degrees. With it, we saw a huge spike in ground ball rate as it climbed to a career-worst 62.3%. This will need to be addressed. Although, he did have COVID in 2020 so how much of that factored into the struggles overall? It is tough to say for sure as it does affect everyone differently.
Overall, he is a player with above average speed, a chance to hit for double digit home runs in Miller Park, and is currently the projected starting third baseman. This should provide everyday playing time in a lineup that should give him the green light as they may need to manufacture runs. There is sneaky double-digit home run and steal upside here with a chance to hit for a decent batting average in the process.
Carter Kieboom, Washington Nationals
ADP: 496.39
Just shy of being what I would consider a deep dart throw, Kieboom is currently in line to be the starting third baseman for the Nationals. The reason the confidence is lacking is in part due to the fact that according to reports, the Nationals are open to trading Kieboom. This should open up a starting spot wherever he lands but it is not certain.
Although he has yet to show it at the major league level, Kieboom has flashed great plate discipline all through the minors as someone who hovers around a 20% strikeout rate and roughly a 13% walk rate. The walk rate did follow him into the 2020 season as he posted a 13.9% rate across 33 games. He also has a history of putting up double-digit home run rates as well in the minors but has yet to have time to let it translate to the MLB level.
This is a decent gamble this late in drafts as Kieboom offers prospect pedigree, minor league track record and, a path to everyday playing time. Maybe consistent playing time is all he needs. A young player could go far and succeed if he is given an opportunity and if the team showed some confidence in him.
Deep-League Dart Throws
These are two names that provide potential based on various reasons and yet they are going outside the top 500 in drafts. These names are not flashy, but they will provide something to your teams in the deepest of formats.
Isaac Paredes, Detroit Tigers
ADP: 574.51
Paredes came up late in 2020 and did not do much with his short stint but he currently enters the 2021 season with the projected starting gig at third base for the Detroit Tigers. He has never struck out more than 16% at any level of the minor leagues and prior to 2020, he hit at least .282 the two seasons prior. The plate discipline is a strength and could lead to a solid batting average and he showed up the potential to hit double-digit home runs as well as he posted at least 12 in two of the previous three seasons prior to 2020.
Erik Gonzalez, Pittsburgh Pirates
ADP: 617.12
Yet another player entering the season on a bad team but should have a chance to play more often than not. Erik Gonzalez actually did show out for a bit last season. He had a mechanical change in his stance and the production did follow for a bit before falling back off. He offers the potential for a few stolen bases late in drafts and being on this team, he should get the opportunity to run as the Pirates will likely need to manufacture runs. This is a fall back for your bench in the deepest of formats just to have at-bats in case of injury so you don't take any zeroes for the week.
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