Down and Out in Dallas - Fantasy Outlook for the Cowboys Without Dak Prescott

September 16, 2022

Pierre Camus evaluates the state of the Dallas Cowboys offense and the fantasy football value of their RB, WR, TE, and QB without Dak Prescott.

The final minutes of the Sunday Night Football contest between Dallas and Tampa Bay was a quintessential example of injury being added to insult. The Cowboys were atrocious on offense all night, scoring all of three points, bringing the boo birds out even as quarterback Dak Prescott was jogging to the locker room before the game ended.

It had become painfully clear that their offseason moves to shed salary were coming back to bite them, as they struggled to move the ball without Amari Cooper and Cedrick Wilson Jr. out wide or La'el Collins and Connor Williams to protect the quarterback.

Unfortunately, it wound up costing the team in the worst way in the form of injury and now there is even more reason to be worried about the state of the Dallas offense.

Week 1 Fallout

Prescott was already hurting fantasy teams by completing just 15 of 29 passes for 134 yards, one interception, and no touchdowns. Then, he was suddenly the one who was hurt. In the waning moments of the fourth quarter, Prescott had his hand bent back by Shaquil Barrett on a pass-rush attempt.

Not speculating that it’s a dirty play, but it does appear that Shaq Barrett grasps & pulls down on Dak Prescott’s hand into extension.

Could be looking at a thumb/UCL sprain or index tendon injury.

These kinds of injuries have cost QBs quite some time in the past (Russ, Brees) pic.twitter.com/IPYlcKhOMz

— Jeff Mueller, PT, DPT (@jmthrivept) September 12, 2022

On Monday morning, it was determined that Prescott would require thumb surgery that will sideline him for several weeks.

Here's instant reaction from Big D:

Cowboys fans waking up to Dak Prescott being out for 2 monthspic.twitter.com/bqefNBAX0g

— NFL Retweet (@NFLRT) September 12, 2022

There is now some speculation that it won't be nearly as long. Jerry Jones stated that he hopes Prescott could be activated as soon as four weeks. That may simply be the overly optimistic outlook from a desperate owner but he wasn't placed on IR which means the team isn't planning a long-term absence.

In reality, the true timeline is still very much in flux and we don't know how he'll look once he returns. Last year, Russell Wilson had his year ruined by a similar hand injury to his middle finger. He only missed three games, but upon returning, he wasn't the same player. Over the final eight games of the season, he completed 61.8% of his passes, averaged 210 yards per game, and threw for just 12 touchdowns. That's a noticeable drop for a player who has a career 65.1% Comp% and an average of 235 passing YPG.

Russell Wilson with one of his more frank comments on his injury today saying of the Green Bay game "was I 100 percent? Definitely not.'' Said it wasn't until six weeks after injury that "I felt really good.'' But also noted he'd played "banged up'' before and felt he could play.

— Bob Condotta (@bcondotta) December 23, 2021

If Prescott ends up in the same situation, it's fair to wonder whether he is a viable starting QB for fantasy football this season at any point. Moreover, the entire Cowboys offense is now looking unreliable. Unless...

Cooper Rush to the Rescue?

With Andy Dalton gone to New Orleans, the backup to Prescott and new starter for the next several games is Cooper Rush. A 28-year-old former undrafted free agent out of Central Michigan, few fantasy managers who aren't Cowboy fans are familiar with Rush.

In one start last season, he looked like a revelation when he threw for 422 yards and three touchdowns to beat the Vikings. He hasn't started a game since, so it's hard to take too much away from that appearance. In brief action toward the end of the recent Week 1 loss to Tampa, he completed seven out of 13 passes for 64 yards but didn't lead the team to any points.

The front office chose to roll with him as the backup rather than retaining Dalton or signing/drafting another QB, so they clearly have some level of confidence in him. That said, it's obvious that Rush isn't equivalent to Dak in terms of talent and mastery of the offense. Failing to sign a free agent backup could have just been another way to save cap room more than a sign of confidence in Rush.

If Rush is productive, it will have to be through the air. He isn't anything close to a dual-threat QB who can provide a high floor with his legs. He actually managed to end his college career with negative rushing yards and has all of five rushing yards across eight NFL appearances. That means he will lean heavily on the receiving corps in Dallas, which could be problematic.

State of the Cowboys' Skill Players

CeeDee Lamb is the one who stands to lose the most in terms of fantasy value. He was an even bigger bust than Prescott in Week 1, netting 19 yards on two receptions despite being targeted 11 times. The target share is encouraging and should repeat itself with Michael Gallup and James Washington still on the shelf, while Jalen Tolbert was a healthy scratch. What is highly discouraging is the fact that Lamb couldn't get separation most of the night and looked lost at times.

The kneejerk reaction is to assume he does worse with Rush and that the entire pass offense is going to bomb for the next few weeks, if not all season. This could turn out to be true but it's premature to assume, especially if Prescott does manage to come back to full health by midseason. Lamb is still startable in fantasy because he's simply the only game in town. The other receivers playing behind Lamb are Noah Brown and Dennis Houston, neither of whom can be considered reliable targets. There's also the possibility that Dak was the main problem, so this week will be very telling if Lamb succeeds.

Cee Dee Lamb hasn’t had a 100 yard receiving game since week 8 of last year. At Minnesota. Cooper Rush was his QB.

— Babe Laufenberg (@BabeLaufenberg) September 15, 2022

Dalton Schultz's value is not a concern. He managed to escape Week 1 with solid numbers: seven receptions for 62 yards on nine targets. With the aforementioned lack of depth at receiver, he should continue to function as the No. 2 target in the offense. A pass-catching TE is often an inexperienced QB's best friend. Just think of Mark Andrews' numbers from 2021 in the games that Tyler Huntley started where Andrews averaged nearly four more PPR points per game than with Lamar Jackson.

Ezekiel Elliott's Week 1 performance was a mixed bag. He averaged over five yards per carry but only touched the ball 11 times. Much of that can be chalked up to a negative game script. Therein lies the problem. If the Cowboys struggle to move the ball under Rush and Tony Pollard continues to be as involved, we could see Zeke average 12-15 touches per game. There's no way to generate RB1 value that way. The Boys may lean on the running game and get Elliott more involved as a pass-catcher which would boost his value. Either way, Elliott isn't a must-trade candidate because you'd be selling low at this point. Hold and keep him in your lineup in 12-team leagues or deeper until further notice.

Tony Pollard may be the only one who benefits as much as Dalton Schultz. He serves as a change-of-pace back who has breakaway speed but mainly as a receiver in third-down sets. The lack of consistent volume makes him a low-floor Flex play at best but he has more upside than Elliott in PPR leagues because he can make those big runs or have high reception totals in any given week.

Conclusion

The results from Dallas' Week 2 matchup with Cincinnati will be very telling. If the offense fails to reach the end zone as they did in the season opener, full-blown panic will set in across NFL nation. The best advice for fantasy managers, as always, is to remain patient.

If Rush is erratic in his second-ever NFL start going up against the defending AFC champs, it would be understandable. The schedule softens as they face the Giants and Commanders the following two weeks and Gallup could be back by then. Lamb graded out as one of the best receivers vs man coverage and should be capable of WR1 numbers without Prescott, but he has to show that his head is in the game.

As far as Dak Prescott goes, he is not an absolute must-hold outside of Superflex or two-QB leagues. He can be stashed but the fact he isn't on IR means he occupies valuable real estate on your bench. I shared my concerns about Prescott being a bust weeks before the season kicked off. The offensive line may be shaky all year. The recent signing of 40-year-old vet Jason Peters may help but it's more of a band-aid than a cure-all.

As tempting as it may be to overreact, the best course of action is to stand pat on all Cowboys for the time being and see how the game plan is adjusted. If Kellen Moore buries his head in the sand and keeps doing the same thing with the same results for the next two weeks, you have permission to jump ship.

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