Daily Fantasy Golf DraftKings Picks (PGA DFS): The Masters

November 11, 2020

Spencer breaks down the DraftKings PGA slate with his Masters DFS lineup picks, under-owned value pays, and golfers to avoid for daily fantasy lineups.

Welcome back, RotoBallers! Transparency is described as 'free from pretense or deceit,' and it is something that I pride myself on when writing these articles. The goal is always to provide the most robust outcome for the reader as possible, but there are weeks when things do not go according to plan. Unfortunately, not everyone in the industry lives directly by the motto of providing clarity and translucence when discussing past outcomes, which means what ends on Sunday is forgotten by Monday if the results do not heighten or improve someone's bankroll.

I mention this because I do not take losing well and realize that failed ventures can cause negative financial staking. That doesn't mean that we should expect to hit a home run during each tournament, and it quite frankly wouldn't be a realistic expectation, but there is no getting around how inconsistent some of the recommendations were from a DFS perspective in Houston. We could sugarcoat it somewhat by discussing Tony Finau coming 24th - even though he was the second-priced golfer, or we could take credit for recommending an extremely popular Sam Burns at $7,500, who failed to get across the finish line after holding the lead going into Sunday. However, that is diluting the overall nature of last week's piece to try and sway the narrative back into our favor. Proper gambling/DFS mentality can't leave you sulking in the past if you want to be successful, but I do believe it is essential to cover recaps as they were. I look forward to getting back on the high horse and attacking the DFS slate with vigor and intellectual analyses for the Masters, but it is vital to remember that transparency will always win out at the end of the day.

I take great pride in the research and energy I put into my selections from a mathematical standpoint, but my numbers or information aren't always the law. If you have any questions about a particular player from a PGA DFS or PGA betting perspective, please feel free to contact me on Twitter @Teeoffsports. Many golfers barely miss out on being mentioned here by fractions of a percent, and I am more than happy to discuss my feelings or stance on anyone that may have caught your eye. Like always, the purpose of this piece is to help you put together your optimal daily fantasy golf lineups for DraftKings, whether that be from a GPP perspective or a cash-game mentality. Be sure to also read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles to help you win big!

PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - Masters

We have a special treat for all you RotoBallers and golf enthusiasts. In addition to this article, be sure to also check out Spencer's PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet, allowing user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you would like to create your own spreadsheet, you will need to make a copy under "file, make a copy." We hope you enjoy!

Masters - PGA DFS Overview

Augusta National

7,435 Yards - Par 72 - Greens Bentgrass

Ah, yes. Magnolia Lane, Amen Corner, the green jacket and Augusta National - 'a tradition unlike any other.' But that tradition will get tested in 2020 after a stoppage earlier in the season resulted in the event being pushed back from April to the middle of November. The million-dollar question now becomes: Are there any differences that should be expected with the colder weather? And does the time of the year modify anything about the layout as a whole?

It is difficult to provide an answer without personal bias and interpretation of the situation, but I do believe distance of the tee will become even more pronounced for the week. Fairways are typically broad and feature non-existent rough, and that combination becomes amplified when you consider that par-five scoring is where golfers can do the majority of their damage.

Massive undulations in the greens have been known to wreak havoc for those who are not accustomed to the property, and it is one of the reasons why a first-timer hasn't won the event since Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979. Short games are going to be tested both on and around the putting surface, and being able to avoid three-putts will be just as important as being able to get your ball up-and-down from an awkward lie. The Masters is known to test you from tee-to-green, and the player that brings their best A-game for the week should be the one that walks out of Augusta as the final major winner of 2020.

Let's Look At The Stats

In Vegas, as of Monday, Bryson DeChambeau leads the way at 8/1 and is followed by Dustin Johnson at 9/1, Jon Rahm at 11/1, Justin Thomas and Rory McIlroy at 12/1 and Xander Schauffele at 14/1.

Key Stats

• Driving Distance 20%
• Par-Five Birdie or Better 20%
• Three-Putt Percentage 17.5%
• Strokes Gained Around the Green 15%
• Strokes Gained off the Tee 15%
• Par-Four Average + Bogey Avoidance 12.5%

Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)

We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.

High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players 

There are five players this week priced above $10,000:

Bryson DeChambeau ($11,200)

I typically would prefer another showing or two at Augusta before labeling someone as the man to beat, but there is a chance that Bryson DeChambeau does have the cheat code needed to unlock the Masters and all its glory. The big-hitting American has failed to crack the top-20 in his first three attempts, but anything DeChambeau has done in the past can't be viewed in absolutes. The 27-year-old has built his body to provide damage to properties like Augusta, and there is a chance that we could see him win this going away. His past failures at the property will have me using him as a GPP-only option, but his opening-round of 66 last season that had him tied for the lead after day one might have been the first sign of what is to come.

Justin Thomas ($10,700)

It has been a steady climb for Justin Thomas at the Masters, bettering his finishing position during each of his four showings. While he still hasn't finished inside the top-10 throughout this stage of his career, you would have to imagine that wall should be broken here in 2020. Thomas hasn't ended a tournament worse than 12th on tour in his last three events and lands inside the top-25 compared to the field in all key metrics for the week.

Jon Rahm ($10,500)

Could this be the event where Jon Rahm becomes a major champion? Grand slam tournaments haven't exactly been the Spaniard's forte when looking at his short-term sample size, but two top-10 results at Augusta in three shots shouldn't be overlooked. Rahm's game is predicated on more than just his driver, and a venue like Augusta allows him to use his full arsenal to find success. It is challenging to pinpoint a weakness when handicapping his chances, and I have a gut feeling that green might be in his future on Sunday.

Rory McIlroy ($10,200)

Rory McIlroy will attempt to join golf's greats by capturing the career grand slam at the Masters. His disappointment in not entering that class sooner hasn't been because of a lack of effort, as McIlroy has finished inside the top-10 in five of his last six runs at the property. I don't think it would be a shock to anyone if the Irishman could get the job done, but it will take a better effort than he has shown on tour recently, and that is enough for me to find myself underweight.

Dustin Johnson ($10,000)

If pricing would have come out after the Houston Open, I imagine Dustin Johnson would have been located above Justin Thomas. As it stands, I don't necessarily have an issue with his $10,000 salary being too feeble, but I do know that the industry as a whole is going to flock to Johnson at a perceived bargain buy. Four straight top-10s results at the Masters shows that Johnson has figured out the venue, but can he get himself over the hump for his first green jacket? The American is one of the safer plays on the board, but the decision will have to be yours on what to do with him in GPP builds.

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Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

Xander Schauffele ($9,800), Patrick Cantlay ($9,600)

I've gone back to add both Xander Schauffele and Patrick Cantlay to this article for a few reasons. It isn't easy to cover every golfer in a field, and it can cause individual players that I will be playing to slip through the cracks. Does that mean I will be rolling out Schauffele and Cantlay if I am only making one build for the week? Probably not. But what it does suggest is that I will be around net-neutral to their ownership projections when I expand my entries to feature a larger scale of lineups. Neither man is someone I am looking to fade in the grand scheme of things, and I believe each is a top-10 option for the Masters. A situation like this is one of the reasons why I always suggest to hit me up on Twitter if you have a particular question about a player not discussed. Not every golfer excluded from the list is a fade.

Patrick Reed ($9,200)

Patrick Reed has a unique course record at Augusta. Only one top-20 has been produced during his six attempts, but that showing ended with him as the victor in 2018. I believe Reed's big-game hunting moniker will carry weight to those in the DFS world, and it will be interesting to see where his ownership projection goes as the week moves forward. I typically don't find myself on the eight-time PGA Tour winner for DFS purposes, but I do admit this is an intriguing spot.

Bubba Watson ($9,000)

We head back to Bubba Watson's happy place - a venue that has seen him post back-to-back top-12 results to go along with two victories in 2012 and 2014. I have noted numerous times in this article how Watson tends to run hot and cold at particular venues, and this is a location where the American is a threat anytime he tees it up. The 12-time PGA Tour winner appears to be peaking at the right time, but it will be vital for him to improve his recent around the green woes that have him ranked 59th in the field.

Tony Finau ($8,800)

When we get a price like this on Tony Finau, it seems likely that his perceived lack of win equity is playing a factor. Finau has never finished outside the top-10 at Augusta, yet we see him priced as the 16th option on DraftKings. Sure, there is no doubt that the American has his fair share of issues when closing the show, but we won't need that out of him at his current going rate. A top-10 would be sufficient enough, and I believe it is well within his grasp.

Hideki Matsuyama ($8,700)

During the Houston Open, I mentioned how Hideki Matsuyama was a potential all-in target for the Masters if he slipped into the low $8,000 range. Unfortunately, we didn't get the full-blown situation that might have come along at being priced in that territory, but his potential value shouldn't be scoffed at with him entering the week at $8,700. Matsuyama hasn't finished outside of 32nd place at Augusta in his previous five tries, and we have seen him pay off his current salary in four of those instances.

Jason Day ($8,400)

Some combination of volatility, injury risk and current form are most likely why Jason Day slipped to $8,400 on DraftKings, but you wouldn't know of that danger if you just looked at his performances in Georgia. Day has finished inside the top-28 during every showing at Augusta since 2013, including three top-10s thrown into the mix. I would have been more concerned if we didn't just witness the Aussie place seventh in Houston - an event he could have won - and I believe all those negative traits will still keep the 32-year-old under-owned.

Jordan Spieth ($8,200), Rickie Fowler ($8,100)

I want to clarify that Jordan Spieth and Rickie Fowler are technically overpriced since their history at Augusta is being weighted into their price tags, but it doesn't mean we can't take a few GPP shots with the duo. Spieth has never finished outside of 21st at the facility in six attempts, and Fowler has come inside the top-12 in five of his previous six tries. Add that to the equation of each man surviving my 'Seven Deadly Sins' when trying to locate a potential winner, and there is a lot to like about the tandem potentially making more of a run than the public anticipates.

Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

Cameron Smith ($7,300)

Ten straight made cuts for Cameron Smith has him riding high into the final major of the year. The Aussie has posted six finishes inside the top-25 over his last seven tournaments, and he has yet to miss a cut at the Masters in three attempts. Smith will find himself as one of the more popular selections in this price range, but his wizardry around the greens and skills off the tee should make it easy to understand why.

Lee Westwood ($7,200)

It wasn't the best lead-in event for Lee Westwood after missing the cut in Houston, but I wouldn't give up on him just yet. Westwood will be making his first trip back to Augusta since finishing in a share of 17th-place in 2017, and he will look to add to his resume that includes a pair of second-place results to go along with a third and six additional top-20s.

Francesco Molinari ($6,700)

From an unbiased perspective, the 2019 Masters sure seems to have broken Francesco Molinari. It has been 20 consecutive events of failing to crack the top-10 since his Sunday implosion, but should we be holding out hope after his share of 15th in Houston? It doesn't come without risk, but I like his game, and I like how it translates to Augusta. Four straight cuts at the venue should provide a ray of hope, and I can't imagine we see a ton of users that are willing to retake the plunge. There is a reason he is the 34th-priced golfer on DraftKings, but there is also some logic behind him being the 18th overall player in the betting market. Molinari is a GPP-only play, but it doesn't come without upside.

Sebastian Munoz ($6,700)

I am going to be avoiding most players taking on Augusta for the first time in their career, but it is hard to find many holes in Sebastian Munoz's game. The Columbian is the 14th best golfer on my chart when it comes to his average finish over the last 10 weeks, and he ranks inside the top-50 compared to the field in all the key metrics I am using to handicap the event. If we want him to pay off his salary, we will only need a made cut, and I don't doubt we can get a lot more than that. Munoz is a real threat to sneak out a top-20 result.

Charl Schwartzel ($6,500)

Maybe I am looking too much into Charl Schwartzel's third-place result here in 2017. Or maybe I am drawing too much hope from his victory at Augusta in 2011. But whatever the reason is for my interest in the South African, it takes an outside-of-the-box mentality if we want to strike riches at the Masters. Yes, Schwartzel has missed three of his last four cuts at the tournament, and I realize he enters the week off of back-to-back missed cuts in Houston and Vegas, but we have to get creative if we want to find an edge. I will take under four percent projected ownership all day long for a golfer that has provided two robust finishes here in the past, and his overall level of bogey avoidance should be a major feather in his cap.

J.T. Poston ($6,300)

Any semblance of win equity is gone here in this range, but a sneaky top-20 can go a long way. J.T. Poston ranks third in my model in three-putt percentage, and he also grades out first in putting over his last 24 rounds. It will take someone with a little putting acumen if they want to compete at the Masters in their first attempt, and Poston should give him himself a shot with his flat stick. Similar to Sebastian Munoz, a top-20 showing is not out of the equation for the 27-year-old.

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