Daily Fantasy Golf DraftKings Picks (PGA DFS): RSM Classic

November 18, 2020

Spencer breaks down the DraftKings PGA slate with his RSM Classic DFS lineup picks, under-owned value pays, and golfers to avoid for daily fantasy lineups.

Welcome back, RotoBallers! Dustin Johnson became just the first world number since Tiger Woods in 2002 to win the Masters, breaking the scoring record of 270 held by Jordan Spieth and the aforementioned Woods with his 20-under par total of 268.

The victory will go a long way for Johnson, who has long been regarded as one of his generation's premier talents. A green jacket mixed in with his U.S. Open triumph in 2016 makes it much more challenging to pick holes into a resume that now has 24 career PGA wins, and when you add in his FedExCup runaway in September for 15 million dollars, you start getting a pretty good argument that Johnson is one of the top-20 players in the history of the game.

I take great pride in the research and energy I put into my selections from a mathematical standpoint, but my numbers or information aren't always the law. If you have any questions about a particular player from a PGA DFS or PGA betting perspective, please feel free to contact me on Twitter @Teeoffsports. Many golfers barely miss out on being mentioned here by fractions of a percent, and I am more than happy to discuss my feelings or stance on anyone that may have caught your eye. Like always, the purpose of this piece is to help you put together your optimal daily fantasy golf lineups for DraftKings, whether that be from a GPP perspective or a cash-game mentality. Be sure to also read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles to help you win big!

PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - RSM Classic

We have a special treat for all you RotoBallers and golf enthusiasts. In addition to this article, be sure to also check out Spencer's PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet, allowing user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you would like to create your own spreadsheet, you will need to make a copy under "file, make a copy." We hope you enjoy!

RSM Classic - PGA DFS Overview

Sea Island Seaside

7,005 Yards - Par 70 - Greens Bermuda

Designed in 1928 by Harry Colt and C.H. Alison, the Sea Island Course is a tight venue that features substantial undulation, shaved run-offs and the propensity to be susceptible to winds. The facility was redesigned in 1998 by Tom Fazio, but the links-style nature remains as pronounced as the day it was constructed.

Unlike most of your fall tournaments in a normal season, 156 golfers will be teeing it up this weekend, but there is one minor change to take into account if you are building models or handicapping this event. While three of the rounds will be held at the Seaside property, players will be forced to play either their Thursday or Friday round on the Plantation Course. From my perspective, rotational events always make it more difficult to handicap the proceedings, but it is a little less challenging with their only being one other property to worry about.

The greens at Seaside are larger than the PGA Tour average, and that is usually welcomed with the venue exposed to extreme elements. Scoring will be easy if the winds remain calm, but scrambling is highly essential if the gusts do pick up. On average, the field connects on 80 percent of their greens in regulation when hitting their approach shots from the short grass, which is right up there with the highest GIR percentage on tour. All in all, we are looking at a birdie venue that will reward ball striking, short game and par-four scoring between 350 to 450 yards. Eleven of the 12 par-fours are between this distance, with only the 18th hole coming in just outside the qualifying zone at 465 yards.

Let's Look At The Stats

In Vegas, as of Monday, Webb Simpson leads the way at 10/1 and is followed by Tyrrell Hatton at 18/1, Sungjae Im at 20/1, Tommy Fleetwood at 22/1 and Russell Henley, Matthew Fitzpatrick and Jason Day at 28/1.

Key Stats

• Par-Four Scoring Weighted Between 350-450 Yards 25%
• Strokes Gained Approach 17.5%
• Proximity 125-175 Yards 15%
• Ball Striking 15%
• Overall Birdie or Better Percentage 15%
• Weighted SG/Bermuda Putting 12.5%

Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)

We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.

High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players 

There are five players this week priced above $10,000:

Webb Simpson ($11,200)

If you are looking for a blend of safety and upside, it shouldn't be a shock to see Webb Simpson listed as the man to beat. Substantial ownership will gravitate towards the American, possibly making him the highest owned player on the board, but it isn't hard to figure out why with back-to-back top-three appearances at Seaside to go along with no finish worse than 17th place over his last seven starts worldwide. Any argument that one takes against the sixth-ranked golfer in the world will have to come because of a contrarian outlook.

Sungjae Im ($11,000)

A return to Bermuda is always an encouraging viewpoint for Sungjae Im, but should we be expecting a Masters hangover for the 22-year-old out of South Korea? I am not sure I would go quite that far in my assessment, but there is no question that the quick bounceback after having a real shot at winning his first major could be a thing. Im is someone that I won't be touching in cash-game builds because of his general erratic nature, but his somewhat inflated price could provide a little GPP upside for those that are willing to take a gamble.

Tommy Fleetwood ($10,700)

I will continue living by the same thought-process with Tommy Fleetwood until he proves something has unequivocally changed. Sure, Fleetwood's 19th-place result at the Masters should be viewed as an encouraging outlook for the man still searching for his first career PGA Tour title, but one performance doesn't forgive the sixth straight events Fleetwood lost strokes with his irons. I could buy into the narrative more if we didn't receive the substantial spike in pricing that we were handed and find it impossible to justify paying $10,700.

Tyrrell Hatton ($10,400)

While Webb Simpson is a fine go-to start for your lineup, Tyrrell Hatton becomes an extremely intriguing pivot at $10,400. Hatton enters the week ranked first in my model when it comes to a statistical fit for Sea Island, which adds to the intrigue of his recent boom-or-bust nature. We just saw Simpson and Hatton go head-to-head at the RBC Heritage in June - a venue that should play in a comparable fashion, and there are reasons to believe we see another strong showing from Hatton in his first attempt at the RSM Classic.

Russell Henley ($10,100)

One could argue that Russell Henley makes more sense as an outright bet than a DFS play because of his heightened popularity for the week, but I am most likely going to find myself biting the bullet in GPP contests. Henley has been sensational with seven consecutive finishes inside the top-30, and it shouldn't hurt matters that he comes into Georgia having not played in the Masters. Henley will be rested and ready to go, although some red flags are lurking with his back-to-back missed cuts at the property in 2018 and 2019. I am willing to ignore those results because we know how hot and cold the American runs, but it is worth pointing out that it hasn't always been ideal for him at the event.

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Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

Matthew Fitzpatrick ($9,900)

Believe it or not, I am starting to come around a little on Matthew Fitzpatrick's game. The Englishman has consistently been performing at venues that aren't geared for his style, and he now gets a chance to take on a property that should be tailor-made for his skillset. Fitzpatrick has never teed it up at the RSM Classic, but two top-14 showings in his last three years at the RBC Heritage gives us an idea that the 26-year-old has a chance to make Georgia the spot of his first PGA Tour win.

Sebastian Munoz ($9,000)

We are witnessing Sebastian Munoz's ascension towards being a top-30 player. The Colombian has reeled off eight top-27 results over his last nine tournaments, which includes a 19th place finish at his first Masters last weekend. It is worth noting that Munoz hasn't been immune to occasional blow-up days, making his prospects a little more on the fence after four hard-fought rounds at Augusta, but it is becoming tough to ignore the 55th-ranked player in the world from a statistical perspective. I'd proceed with caution, but there is an obvious GPP upside.

Corey Conners ($8,900)

Still my biggest golf hit to date, Corey Conners will forever hold a special place in my heart after connecting on a massive outright with him at 250/1 during the Valero Texas Open. Three straight top-25 finishes leading into this week, which includes a 10th place result at Augusta, has the Canadian surging into a venue where he has finished inside the top-40 in his first two attempts. Look for Conners to continue his success at a property that will reward his ball-striking nature, but it doesn't come without some trepidation because of his putter's inconsistency.

Brian Harman ($8,500)

It feels as if we have made Brian Harman a part of every DraftKings article over the past two months, and we finally get a venue that should accentuate his game. The Georgia native has posted two top-14 finishes at the RSM Classic over the past three years, and his six consecutive top-40 showings over the last 10 weeks on tour should make Harman one of the safer options on the board.

Doc Redman ($8,000)

I haven't been as bullish as most when it comes to Doc Redman, but consider me all in for the RSM Classic. Yes, the ownership will be hefty on the 22-year-old, and there are still short game woes to worry about, but it is hard to fathom why Redman enters the week as underpriced as he is across the board. A strong argument could be made that he is about $1,000 below his perceived going rate on DraftKings, and that is good enough for me to take a chance that we see his putter make strides in Georgia.

Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

Austin Cook ($7,500)

A victory in 2017 mixed with an 11th in 2018 has Austin Cook as someone to keep a close eye on this weekend. Despite his credentials, Cook is currently projected to garner only a 6.5% ownership total, making him an interesting value with your builds in the mid-$7,000 range.

Chez Reavie ($7,500)

Out of sight, out of mind. That is the best way to describe Chez Reavie. The American quietly strung together a 29th place result at the Masters after not competing for a month, and it has shown with his perceived lack of projected ownership so far this week. Reavie has always been better at short courses, ranks fourth in the field in driving accuracy and is an under-the-radar prospect from a GPP perspective. Finding hidden variables is the key to success, and Reavie has a lot of them pointing in his favor.

Charl Schwartzel ($7,300)

It was a good result at the Masters for Charl Schwartzel, concluding the event in a share of 25th place. I am interested to see where Schwartzel's ownership heads as we near Thursday, but there does seem to be an opening where his upside isn't matching up with the public's interest level. That is typically something I like to identify when I already have a golfer around positive equity at their price tag, and the math is starting to make sense for him as a play.

Charley Hoffman ($7,200)

We all know about the revenge game narrative in other sports; could it transfer over to Charley Hoffman in Georgia? Of course, I speak of Hoffman's shunning from the Masters' field last weekend - a tournament where we have seen the UNLV product look like a reincarnated Tiger Woods during Thursday rounds. Hoffman will go under-owned because of his recent slip-up at the Shriners and Bermuda Championship, but a resort-like venue that plays as a short birdie fest will always be the preferred target location for the 43-year-old.

Russell Knox ($7,200)

Wind? Check. Easy difficulty? Check. A robust Russell Knox showing? Maybe. Knox cracked the top-20 at Seaside last year after a 37th-place result in 2017, and it comes on the heels of back-to-back top-16 finishes at the Houston Open and Bermuda Championship. The Scottish golfer is anything but safe, but five percent is too shallow of an ownership total for the upside he possesses.

Cameron Tringale ($7,200)

Two missed cuts are mixed in with two top-30s from Cameron Tringale over the last four years at the RSM Classic. The 33-year-old seems like he should have better consistency at a venue that matches his playing style, but you will have to take a gamble on what version of him you will receive. I realize that is an answer that walks the tight rope between both sides of the equation, but it is not as if there is an easier explanation to provide.

Adam Long ($7,000)

I would consider this to be a relatively good DFS tournament for a few reasons. For starters, the top of the board is competitive and quality in stature, and it doesn't hurt matters that there are some high upside plays that aren't exactly must-start options listed this far down the board. Adam Long fits that criteria with three top-13s to go along with three finishes outside of the top-65 over his last six starts, but you won't need much exposure to him to bypass his current projection of less than three percent.

Harry Higgs ($6,900)

As the 66th-priced player on DraftKings, we are looking for some potential out of Harry Higgs, which is what he gives us at under five percent ownership. Higgs has a 35th-place showing at the venue in 2019 and has provided two top-25 results over his last four tournaments.

Adam Schenk ($6,800)

Adam Schenk ended his made cut streak of 11 straight weekends at the Houston Open, but there are reasons to jump back on board in cash-game contests. Schenk's price tag of $6,800 does some of what it is meant to do by incorporating his failure to provide top-25 results on the regular, but head-to-head participants should be looking at his going rate as something that can be used to open up salary elsewhere.

John Huh ($6,600)

I mentioned on my spreadsheet how John Huh only has eight rounds worth of a sample size for us to draw from, but those two tournaments have resulted in stellar totals from the 30-year-old out of New York. Huh ranks inside the top-10 in the field in strokes gained approach, overall birdie or better percentage and total driving and also adds to the resume with three top-40s at the RSM over the last five years. My model has gotten a little carried away with what we should be expecting from the 601st-ranked player in the world, but there is potential for us to carve out a top-25 result from him at limited ownership totals.

Branden Grace ($6,600)

Oh, how far Branden Grace has fallen. The once five-time major championship top-10 participant has struggled by making just two of his last 13 cuts, but I have a hunch he might sneak out his third during that time in Georgia. Grace is a better Bermuda putter when comparing him to other surfaces, and he will get a chance to show his mid-iron proximity advantage that places him seventh between the distances of 125-175 yards.

Kyle Stanley ($6,500)

Kyle Stanley needed a last-minute miracle to make the cut during his last event, but it did come after an implosion put him below the cut line. Stanley never could quite get his footing under him over the weekend, posting a 65th-place finish that didn't do much for his DFS backers. While there are concerns with where his game currently stands, the American has posted all of his finishes inside the top-35 at Sea Island since 2015 and lands inside the top-10 in both par-four scoring between 350-450 yards and driving accuracy.

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