Daily Fantasy Golf DraftKings Picks (PGA DFS): Bermuda Championship

October 28, 2020

Spencer breaks down the DraftKings PGA slate with his Bermuda Championship DFS lineup picks, under-owned value pays, and golfers to avoid for daily fantasy lineups.

Welcome back, RotoBallers! Patrick Cantlay swiped the ZOZO Championship away from Justin Thomas and Jon Rahm, capturing his third title on tour in the process. The UCLA product only made two bogeys all week and found himself third in strokes gained tee to green and first in scrambling.

We discussed a little on the site how Cantlay would be one of the least owned players above $9,000 and how it might provide him upside as a contrarian GPP option. That outcome did come to fruition, and it is one of the reasons I always examine the idea of trying to find outside the box selections that can deliver hidden win equity. It is much easier said than done, but it is something to keep in mind when you put together your rosters weekly.

I take great pride in the research and energy I put into my selections from a mathematical standpoint, but my numbers or information aren't always the law. If you have any questions about a particular player from a PGA DFS or PGA betting perspective, please feel free to contact me on Twitter @Teeoffsports. Many golfers barely miss out on being mentioned here by fractions of a percent, and I am more than happy to discuss my feelings or stance on anyone that may have caught your eye. Like always, the purpose of this piece is to help you put together your optimal daily fantasy golf lineups for DraftKings, whether that be from a GPP perspective or a cash-game mentality. Be sure to also read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles to help you win big!

PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - Bermuda Championship

We have a special treat for all you RotoBallers and golf enthusiasts. In addition to this article, be sure to also check out Spencer's PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet, allowing user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you would like to create your own spreadsheet, you will need to make a copy under "file, make a copy." We hope you enjoy!

Bermuda Championship - PGA DFS Overview

Port Royal Golf Course

6,828 Yards - Par 71 - Greens Bermuda

We are back to some of the guessing game that can be DFS golf, as the PGA Tour will head to Port Royal Golf Course for just the second time. Unfortunately, last year's event didn't feature a stat tracker that calculated strokes gained numbers, and we are going to be left slightly in the dark about what to expect.

Brendon Todd started his resurgence here in 2019, which would leave us to believe accuracy will trump distance, but the venue is so short that I am not sure that statement can be accurately assessed. Port Royal ranked 40th out of 44 courses last year with a 54% fairway connection rate, and that viewpoint can be marginally negated when we look at the 306-yard driving average that the tournament featured - ranking fourth in terms of average length.

I don't see anything abnormal about approach play or around the green metrics, but the one thing that did catch my eye was how short almost all the holes are for the week. I realize that sounds redundant and should be expected when a course measures in under 7,000 yards, but most of the yardage is baked into the par-threes and removed elsewhere. Of the 11 par-fours, only one plays above 450 yards, and the three par-fives are extremely gettable at 553, 517 and 507. The par-five seventh accounted for 17% of DK points last year and allowed 242 birdies to go along with 25 eagles. To me, that means par-five scoring should still be weighted, and looking at how golfers deal with short par-fours will also come into play when viewing this from a handicapping outlook.

Let's Look At The Stats

In Vegas, as of Monday, Will Zalatoris leads the way at 11/1 and is followed by defending champion Brendon Todd at 12/1, Harold Varner at 25/1 and Doc Redman at 28/1.

Key Stats

• Weighted OTT + Approach 20%
• Par-4 350-450 (Calculated) 20%
• Par-5 Birdie or Better Percentage 20%
• Proximity 150 and Below 15%
• Par-3 + Bogey Avoidance + 200+ Proximity 15%
• Bermuda Putting Last 100 10%

Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)

We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.

High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players 

There are five players this week priced above $10,000:

Brendon Todd ($11,100)

Two main factors are adding to the narrative that Port Royal Golf Course is an accuracy venue. The property's length does play into the description quite nicely, but the more pronounced stance most are taking stems from Brendon Todd's victory here in 2019. Personally, I don't think we should be placing as much substance onto that perspective when reviewing the top of the board, but what it does give us is an overpriced Todd that is riding high off of the one-year sample size we have at the event. An all-out fade might be a little too far on the aggressive side of things because the American does possess a putter that can take advantage of the Bermuda putting surfaces, but I find it challenging to look at his off the tee and approach numbers and expect a top-10 performance. I won't have any exposure to the 35-year-old, but I want to note that I typically take more aggressive stances than most.

Will Zalatoris ($10,900)

For all the talk about how poor of a field we have for the Bermuda Championship, could we look back on this in a season and marvel at the fact that Will Zalatoris teed it up for the event? I certainly think that is a possibility with the talent level the American has demonstrated early in his career, and there might not be a safer option on the slate. Zalatoris' missed cut at the Sanderson Farms came after one too many events in a row, and I think another top-10 showing could undoubtedly be in the cards for the 24-year-old.

Harold Varner ($10,700), Doc Redman ($10,400)

Two of my early favorites to be the highest owned player of the week are Harold Varner III and Doc Redman. I envision many DFS players will be bypassing the top of the board and starting here, and while I don't have any massive gripes with that route, I do prefer starting my rosters with Will Zalatoris. With that being said, Varner and Redman are top-10 caliber players in this tournament that carry the potential to make the Bermuda Championship the location of their first wins on tour. However, there might be better spots to locate value. I won't let them decide my week if I am playing multiple lineups, but I definitely won't find myself as bullish as most.

Emiliano Grillo ($10,100)

Any model that doesn't incorporate a ton of putting into their research will fall in love with Emiliano Grillo for the Bermuda Championship. The Argentinan is arguably the best ball-striker in the field, but we eventually have to focus on his ineptitude with his flat stick. Despite his recent run of success, Grillo hasn't cracked the top-20 in the last 10 weeks and is almost impossible to trust with a putter in his hands. I wouldn't put it past him to provide a robust result, but these are chances I prefer taking when he is thousands of dollars less than his current going rate.

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Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

Charley Hoffman ($9,700)

It is an excellent bounce-back spot for Charley Hoffman, who fluttered to a missed cut in Las Vegas during his last event. The combination of total rounds played leading into the week mixed with the apparent nerves of competing in the town of his alma matter might have played a factor in his poor showing, but any missed cut performance at the Shriners should be taken with a grain of salt. None of that is to say that Hoffman deserved to make the weekend, but a tournament that possesses a made cut total of seven-under par just shouldn't be viewed as a real outcome. The UNLV product has been known to tear up resort-like courses in the past and will get a chance to do so once again.

Justin Suh ($8,700)

I was beating the drum as hard as I could for Justin Suh at the Shriners Open when he was priced at $6,400, but what should we think about his new price tag that nearly has him entering the $9,000 range? Get the drums again...the band plays on! Suh is a unique talent that is just starting to show his potential to the world, and I believe both he and Will Zalatoris should be the two favorites for the event. It doesn't necessarily mean either will win this weekend, but I will keep pressing the issue until his salary matches his talent.

Scott Piercy ($8,500)

Ranked 12th in my model compared to the field in strokes gained off the tee + approach, Scott Piercy has the style of a game that has been known to beatdown inferior tracks in the past. The Vegas resident also grades out inside the top-25 in both critical par-four ranges, making him someone that might enter the week a little under the radar because of the overall lack of attraction that typically surrounds him.

Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

Wesley Bryan ($7,800)

We know that off the tee success might be the worst discipline of Wesley Bryan's game, but don't look now; Bryan has gained strokes off the tee in his previous four starts - albeit of minuscule totals. Add that to the fact that the American has shot par or better in his last 19 rounds, and a decent picture starts to get painted of someone that is trending in the right direction. I believe Bryan is a better outright wager than anything else because of his volatility, but I would be encouraged by his recent run in all formats.

Brian Stuard ($7,500)

I know I negated driving accuracy when talking about Brendon Todd, but there is a massive difference between paying over $11,000 for that viewpoint and only having to chip in $7,500 for Brian Stuard. The American is my preferred route to go when looking at a player description that fits that mold, and he actually ranks higher in my model when it comes to accuracy than the "man-to-beat." Stuard has struggled with two straight missed cuts, but the shortened par-fours should firmly place him back in play, as he ranks fifth in the field from 350-450 yards.

Chesson Hadley ($7,200)

With Bermuda grading out as Chesson Hadley's best-putting surface, there are reasons to be optimistic that the 33-year-old can get himself back into the winner's circle for the first time since 2014. Hadley ranks inside the top-15 for me when combining strokes gained approach/strokes gained off the tee and also lands in that territory with par-four scoring between 350-400 yards and total proximity. The 241st-ranked player in the world has seen his biggest issues come from his propensity to randomly post a big total, and he will need to keep himself under control during the more difficult par-threes if he wants to find success.

Kyle Stanley ($7,100)

My only real worry with Kyle Stanley is that he might not possess enough firepower to win the tournament, but we don't need that at his $7,100 price tag. Stanley ranks first in par-four scoring between 350-450 yards and grades out inside the top-10 in proximity under 150 yards. Those two categories should play nicely into one another, and it makes the two-time PGA Tour winner a threat to outproduce his salary.

Ryan Armour ($6,600)

With the same mindset as Brian Stuard, Ryan Armour is one of the better values on the board because of his ability to locate fairways. The 44-year-old prefers birdie fests that allow him to use his pinpoint accuracy, and his eighth-place result at the venue last season should be viewed as a major perk for his outlook. There is no doubt that Armour's game has been rocky since his fourth-place showing at the Rocket Mortgage, but you have to question his price tag when he receives a step down in class.

Vaughn Taylor ($6,600)

It has been 10 straight tournaments since Vaughn Taylor has cracked the top-50, but there are some Jim Herman/Hudson Swafford feels going on here for a player that might be able to break out of his slump. Taylor ranks inside the top-15 in strokes gained putting on Bermuda over his previous 100 rounds and is also inside the top-10 in par-four scoring between the previously noted range this week. He will need more than that if he wants to get himself back on track, but there is finally some light at the end of the tunnel for him.

Michael Gligic ($6,500)

Michael Gligic hasn't performed well in this spot of being chalk recently, missing the cut at the Corales Puntacana to burn his owners. However, Gligic is worth a second look because of his recent success outside of his one failed venture. The Canadian has posted four top-37 results in his past six events, and if you are looking for a potential cut-maker down in this range, you could do a lot worse from a safety element.

Camilo Villegas ($6,400)

We are dealing with an extraordinarily small sample size, but Camilo Villegas does look like he has regained some of his tools that once made him an up-and-coming young star in the game. Villegas has gained 10.3 shots with his irons over his last two outings, and the 9.9 strokes lost putting might be overturned by a return to Bermuda - his only surface he is currently positive on weekly.

Ollie Schniederjans ($6,200)

Like a bad drug habit, I can't seem to kick Ollie Schniederjans. The former number one amateur in the world is about as volatile as they come, and we don't have to look any further than his last eight Korn Ferry Tour events. Schniederjans has posted four top-12 results to go along with four missed cuts, but DFS gamers do have hope to catch lightning in a bottle from a golfer that has posted top-10 showings on the PGA Tour in his career. Schniederjans does tend to carry more ownership than he should because of his popularity, but consider him a GPP gamble with upside. If worst comes to worst, at least we now have his brother, Luke Schniederjans, to also enter into lineups.

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