RADIO
Spencer Aguiar breaks down the DraftKings slate, providing information of not only who will come into the week under-owned but also who should be avoided for your lineups.
Welcome back RotoBallers! Webb Simpson got a much-deserved victory at the Waste Management Open on Sunday. The now seventh-ranked player in the world had posted seven top-three finishes since his last win on tour at the 2018 Players Championship, and while Tony Finau was an unlucky second-place finisher, Simpson did everything in his power to get the job done.
Simpson was perhaps my favorite DraftKings play on the board last weekend, and it appears as if others felt the same way with his nearly 18 percent ownership in the $5 'Drive the Green' contest. Surprisingly, we did get a marginal rebate with the American in cash-games, who was just outside the top-eight participants in ownership on the board. I'd have anticipated we would have seen Simpson much higher on the list, but it was instead Hideki Matsuyama that ate up nearly 36% of the exposure.
As far as this article is concerned, we positively highlighted top-10 finishers Webb Simpson, Tony Finau, Justin Thomas, Jon Rahm and Byeong Hun An but did miscalculate on Matthew Wolff. Like always, the purpose of this piece is to help you put together your optimal daily fantasy golf lineups for DraftKings, whether that be from a GPP perspective or a cash-game mentality. If you have any questions before the tournament starts on Thursday morning, feel free to contact me via Twitter @Teeoffsports. And be sure to read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles to help you win big!
Featured Promo! Save 30% on any Premium Pass using discount code NEW. Win more with our DFS, Betting and Season-Long Pass, get expert tools and advice from proven winners! GAIN ACCESS
AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am - PGA DFS Overview
Pebble Beach Golf Links
6,816 Yards - Par 72 - Greens Poa
After a week-long hiatus from having to deal with a split course event, the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am will put us right back into another rotational week of golf. Pebble Beach Golf Links, Spyglass Golf Course and Monterey Peninsula Country Club will be our host venues, and the cut will take place after all players have played each track once. The top-60 and ties will make it to Sunday, and the field will play Pebble Beach Golf Links for the final round.
Pebble Beach is the only course that will feature Shot Link data and Shot Tracker, and we won't have much of an idea of what is going on at the other two properties. This creates two huge negatives. For starters, we will only have information about what is happening for a third of the players each day. That in itself is terrible from a viewing perspective, but it also hurts us when it comes to breaking down the event properly. With half the rounds at Spyglass and Monterey, we won't have any strokes gained numbers for the week, and most importantly, we won't have any long-term data to incorporate into our research pre-tournament.
Last season, Pebble Beach Golf Links was getting prepared for the U.S. Open, which meant the fairways were more narrow than usual, not to mention that the rough was thicker than past seasons here. We should go back to a more conventional setup this season, and golfers that can gain strokes with their approach shots (especially from between 100-150 yards) will put themselves in a better position to score. It is worth noting that the greens are some of the smallest on tour, and players will also need to be able to save par around the putting surface if they want to find success.
Let's take a look at the stats:
|
Stat |
Pebble Beach |
Tour Average |
|
Driving Distance |
267 |
283 |
|
Driving Accuracy |
70% |
60% |
|
GIR Percentage |
62% |
65% |
|
Scrambling Percentage |
57% |
57% |
|
Average Three-Putts Per Round |
0.47 |
0.54 |
The last two seasons have seen two-under and three-under as the total needed to make the cut. If poor weather doesn't impede the proceedings, I'd imagine we are looking at the same projection again. However, there is a chance that wind can severely affect the tournament, putting even-par or above in the equation as possible outcomes.
In Vegas, as of Monday, Dustin Johnson leads the way at 6.5/1 and is followed by Patrick Cantlay at 12/1, Jason Day at 18/1, Matt Kuchar at 20/1, Brandt Snedeker at 20/1 and Paul Casey at 20/1. Phil Mickelson is your defending champion of the event and can be had just outside the top group of golfers at 22/1.
Key Stats
- Strokes Gained Approach 22.5%
- Proximity From 100-150 Yards 17.5%
- GIR Percentage 17.5%
- Par-Four Average 15%
- Strokes Gained Around the Green 15.0%
- Par-Five Birdie or Better 12.5%
Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)
High-Priced DFS Players
There are five players this week priced above $10,000:
Dustin Johnson ($11,600) - When you think of Pebble Beach, Dustin Johnson is one of the first names that comes to mind. The American has provided eight top-seven results here since 2008, including back-to-back victories in 2009 and 2010. However, it hasn't always been sunshine and roses at the property. During Johnson's four additional showings in the past 12 years, he has failed to break 41st place and did sputter to a missed cut in 2013. All of that is obviously a little nitpicky, but it does add some hesitation to rostering him if you are on the fence. It also doesn't help that Johnson is the only golfer priced above $11,000, nor is it 100% ideal that he is returning from Saudi Arabia and teeing it up without a break. None of that is meant to talk you out of playing him, but it will come down to how risk-averse you want to be for the week.
Patrick Cantlay ($10,900) - This will probably be an unpopular opinion, but I think Patrick Cantlay's win equity rivals that of Dustin Johnson for this tournament. Cantlay has been on a scorching hot run in his previous 25 events, rendering 20 top-25 results, but it is his explosiveness that appeals to me most for a contest such as Pebble Beach. Since the start of 2019, Cantlay has shot 65 or better in 12 percent of his rounds - good for the fourth-best total on tour and top amount in this field. This tournament suffers a pretty drastic dropoff in quality once you slip past Jason Day at $10,300, so I'll most likely be starting a lot my lineups near the top and building down.
Paul Casey ($10,500) - It is important to avoid viewing Paul Casey's 21st place showing at the American Express and immediately thinking that he is off to a slow start in 2020. There has been perhaps no player that has played more meaningful golf since the official 2019 season ended, and Casey has been a reliable source across the board in all his starts. A victory at the Porsche European Open highlights his recent success, but even the Englishman's 21st place result in his last PGA Tour start deserved a better conclusion. Casey was inside the top-five coming down the stretch but double-bogeyed back-to-back holes to slip outside the top-20.
Jason Day ($10,300) - Even if you are someone that refuses to consider Jason Day during most weeks, it is hard to ignore his five consecutive top-11 finishes at the event since 2015. Most pundits will want to point to Day's inefficient irons as the reason why he will struggle this time around, but the Aussie ranks inside the top-20 in the field between 100-150 yards, according to my model's math.
Brandt Snedeker ($10,100) - I don't have anything against Brandt Snedeker this week, but it is essential to take a stand against someone at the top of the board. Snedeker's missed cut at the Waste Management isn't looking as if it will do much against his ownership percentage, and with all things being practically equal when it comes to projections of the players above $10,000, the 43rd-ranked golfer in the world is the odd man out for me.
Mid-To-Low-Priced DFS Players
Matt Kuchar ($9,900) - The lack of past results at Pebble Beach and shaky statistical form will sway some off of Matt Kuchar, but this situation isn't much different than Tony Finau's at the Waste Management Open. A low-owned Kuchar is always worth a second look, and there is a lot to like about him when you dive a little deeper into the numbers.
Phil Mickelson ($9,500) - There are very few facilities in the world at this point in Phil Mickelson's career where he could be priced as a top-eight golfer in the field, and people will still play him. There is no denying the brilliance 'Lefty' has shown at Pebble Beach, but his price on DraftKings is soaking up all the positive traits and ignoring everything that is going wrong. Personally, I want no part of Mickelson and am fine leaving him to the seven percent that want to roll the dice.
Branden Grace ($9,300) - A links background hasn't been a prerequisite for success at Pebble Beach, but having one won't hurt either. Branden Grace's skills are best-suited for courses where he can use his short game as a weapon, and it might help explain why he has contributed two straight top-28 results here. Grace's lack of exposure on the PGA Tour will keep his ownership subsided, and that is good for us that pay attention to worldwide results.
Viktor Hovland ($9,100) - I worry that Viktor Hovland is trending towards what Matthew Wolff did at the Waste Management Open. I realize Hovland missed the cut alongside Wolff in the event, but everyone (including myself) ignored the fact that Wolff's short game was trending towards disaster. I never put much thought into it and underestimated how much it would detur someone at TPC Scottsdale, but Pebble Beach is a different animal, with players only hitting 62 percent of greens in regulation. Hovland has been a statistical monster early in his career, but ignoring his shaky short game could be a faulty mistake.
Russell Knox ($8,600) - Leveraging ownership might detur me from using a ton of Russell Knox in large-field GPP contests, but his $8,600 price tag makes for a great value in cash games in California. Knox has made 11 straight worldwide cuts and has recorded two consecutive top-15 results at Pebble Beach. The Scottish golfers' upside to find the winner's circle might sway me away from going all in, but I think he is a sneaky OAD selection and top-notch player to use in any head-to-head market.
Rafa Cabrera Bello ($8,400) - Rafa Cabrera Bello is a great par-four scorer that will give himself a plethora of birdie opportunities because of his pristine iron play. The Spaniard has posted two consecutive top-30 showings on the PGA Tour in non-WGC events, and even though he is still looking for his first victory in the states, the 45th-ranked player in the world is underpriced due to his lack of exposure on the PGA Tour. Pebble Beach is a venue that should highlight his links-style game, and the weather shouldn't be anything too out of the ordinary for him. At $8,400 on DraftKings, he makes for an excellent value play in all settings and can be easily paired with the likes of Dustin Johnson, Jason Day, Patrick Cantlay or Paul Casey.
Adam Hadwin ($8,100) - A quick start in Arizona for Adam Hadwin was quickly derailed with two sub-par weekend rounds. Maybe that is what we should have expected from him after not teeing it up for two months, but the Canadian will have another splendid statistical fit in front of him in California. Similar to Russell Knox, Hadwin's lack of perceived upside and substantial projected ownership has me viewing him as more of a cash-game play, but I don't mind slipping him into some GPP fields as leverage.
Jim Furyk ($7,800) - I hate to admit that 49-year-old Jim Furyk graded out third in my statistical model, but it makes sense given the length of all three venues this weekend. To me, there are a lot of ways you can play this board. I'm leaning towards starting lineups with two of the top four players and taking random shots down the list since I am guaranteed three rounds with all golfers in GPPs, but I love the idea of using Furyk, Hadwin and Knox in cash-game builds and figuring out what I can construct around them.
Scott Piercy ($7,800) - I was hoping we weren't going to get the kind of performance that we did out of Scott Piercy in Arizona. Piercy's sixth-place result will put a lot of DFS users onto him that otherwise wouldn't have considered the option, but I am intrigued to see where this ownership projection ends up shaking out. If I can get him at sub-10 percent, I am interested. But I am not extremely eager to play a chalky Piercy given his uncertainty.
Kevin Na ($7,700) - Is everything clicking the way we would hope to see it for Kevin Na? No. But the 28th-ranked player in the world has the most substantial disparity of anyone in this field when it comes to world ranking versus DraftKings price. Na is ranked ninth in both par-four scoring and proximity from 125-150 at courses under 7,200 yards over his previous 50 rounds and is someone worth considering at less than five percent projected ownership.
Lucas Glover ($7,600) - We have a variety of players here within a $300 range that have exuded exquisite course history in their careers. Lucas Glover has two straight top-11 showings, Scott Stallings has three consecutive results in the top-16 and Kevin Streelman has four top-17 finishes since 2016. I lean towards Stallings and Streelman making more sense as a head-to-head or cash-game plays, but I wouldn't necessarily exclude any of the three from GPP builds. I'd anticipate Glover being the least owned option of the group, which makes him my favorite when I figure most else should be equal.
Xinjun Zhang ($7,200) - Xinjun Zhang has burned everyone so often in the prior two months that I think we see his ownership percentage decreased from where it would have been. After missing three cuts in a row, Zhang has rebounded with two respectable finishes inside the top-60 and should find Pebble Beach to be a natural fit for his game.
Matthew NeSmith ($7,200) - Matthew NeSmith has made six of his past seven cuts and finished inside the top-20 three times. Not too shabby for a golfer that is priced just over $7,000 for the week. I do worry slightly that NeSmith's putrid around the green game will present issues, but I don't put a ton of stock in him having never played the venue. The American is going to be popular, but it is easy to understand why with his recent results.
Luke Donald ($6,500) - Former world No. 1 Luke Donald used the last of his medical exemption in Phoenix but was able to qualify for the field in California because of a career money list exemption. All of this places some pressure on Donald to start achieving quality results again on tour, but outside of Harbour Town, Pebble Beach might be the best fit for the Englishman's game. Donald is strong around the green and should find success with his short irons, making this event essential for his career progression going forward.
Josh Teater ($6,300) - Not many will find their way onto Josh Teater with his seven missed cuts over 10 tournaments, but an aggressive approach isn't a terrible way to attack the board since we have a guaranteed three rounds out of all players. Teater has managed to sprinkle in four top-13 results since July of last season and is someone that has a chance to be a boom-or-bust selection at barely any ownership percentage.
