The Cut List (Week 17) - Time to Let Go?

December 29, 2020

Chris O'Reilly's list of potential busts and overvalued players who fantasy football managers may want to consider cutting and dropping for Week 17 of the season.

Welcome to the final Cut List of 2020. I'd like to thank everyone who's joined me on this column all year. I took it on in Week 7 and I've looked forward to writing it each week ever since. So I hope you've looked forward to reading it as well.

I don't have any profound end-of-season advice and I'll spare you at least one of the four million references to "what a year it's been" you're bound to be bombarded with over the next few days. I'll not bore you with another story about my home leagues or another paragraphs-long tirade on Anthony Lynn's inability to manage a clock at the end of a game.

Instead, how about a quick look ahead to 2021? We don't know exactly what our draft boards will look like in August, but we can make educated guesses as to the ADP ranges of most players. Here are four players (one at each position) I'm anticipating being fond of at their respective ADP ranges in 2021. It's never too early to start putting the big board together, so feel free to file these guys away as players to consider next draft season.

Four Players to Watch in 2021

1. Logan Thomas, Washington Football Team - Almost any new QB situation in 2021 will be an upgrade over this year's in Washington. Logan Thomas heads into Week 17 trailing only Travis Kelce and Darren Waller among tight ends in total receptions (69), and he trails only Kelce, Waller, and Evan Engram in targets (104). He has 633 yards and five touchdowns in one of the league's least productive pass offenses. Imagine what he might be able to do with a little stability at QB. Despite his standing as a borderline top-five TE in 2020, he'll probably be drafted well outside that range next year.
2. D.J. Chark, Jacksonville Jaguars - Like Thomas, D.J. Chark has been put through the ringer with a revolving door of ineffective quarterbacks all year long. Unlike Thomas, he's a few months away from being the number-one wide receiver in an offense led by Trevor Lawrence. Even if Lawrence doesn't immediately excel at the NFL level, he is an immediate improvement over any QB Chark has had to put up with in 2020. Considering how stacked Chark's position is in fantasy, I don't envision him being drafted among the top 25 wide receivers in 2021. Count me in for high-end WR2 potential at a mid-range flex draft price.
3. Chase Edmonds, Arizona Cardinals - This will be contingent on the Cardinals letting impending free agent Kenyan Drake walk, but that's the way I see things unfolding in the desert. Drake has had his moments, but he's hardly performed to the level that would warrant a significant financial commitment from Arizona heading into his age-27 season. Chase Edmonds ranks 19th among all players this year in yards per touch at 5.7, a mark that is also good for fifth among running backs. He's on a team-friendly deal that expires after next year, so it stands to reason the Cardinals would like to squeeze some surplus value out of a player making under $1 million while directing bigger money to other facets of their roster. The fact that Edmonds has never received a full workload in any of his three seasons should drive down his draft-day stock just far enough for him to be a bargain RB2 if Arizona makes no meaningful additions to its backfield this offseason.
4. Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers - Choosing to wait for Justin Herbert will be among the easiest decisions I'll make in 2021 drafts. You're familiar enough with his numbers that I don't need to waste your time recapping how impressive he's been as a rookie, so I'll just leave you with this: Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Deshaun Watson, Josh Allen, Kyler Murray, Aaron Rodgers, and Russell Wilson are all probably going to be taken ahead of Herbert in 2021 drafts. Assuming Dak Prescott remains in Dallas and is on track to play in Week 1, you can add him to that list as well. Herbert has been one of the best first-year quarterbacks I've ever seen, and I'm anticipating being able to draft him at a QB9 ADP in his second year. Sign me up.

And now, we're on to the final Cut List of 2020. Seeing as how there's nothing left to play for after this week, any player you're not planning on starting in Week 17 championship matchups can be considered droppable. That said, unless I have some major injury void I have to fill immediately, I'm probably not using the waiver wire at all in the early stages of this particular week. Instead, I'm letting reports develop throughout the week so I have a clearer picture of what to expect on Sunday. Then I can make a more informed decision, knowing the players I'm acquiring are going straight into my starting lineup.

Le'Veon Bell, Kansas City Chiefs

82.5% rostered

This game could admittedly go one of two ways. The Chiefs have nothing to play for in Week 17, so it wouldn't be shocking to see reduced playing time for any or all of Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, and Tyreek Hill. Should Kansas City go that route, Le'Veon Bell could see an increased workload as the Chiefs just try to churn along on the ground. On the other hand, with Clyde Edwards-Helaire already banged up, Kansas City could choose not to risk heading into the playoffs with two wounded running backs. Bell was, after all, out-touched by Darrel Williams in Week 16 with Edwards-Helaire out.

Since joining the Chiefs, Bell has seen double-digit touches twice. He has scored two total touchdowns, and has never seen more than three targets in a game. While Bell storming to a 47-point fantasy outing after being completely useless for 16 weeks would be a fitting way to end this year, this is a fire I'm only playing with if I absolutely have to. Keep a close eye on reports out of Kansas City throughout the week to see if Andy Reid offers any insight on how he plans to use his fantasy-relevant players. You don't have to drop him, but you do have to be certain he's not going to cede a majority of backfield work to Williams again.

Jalen Reagor, Philadelphia Eagles

16.6% rostered

Maybe Jalen Reagor turns out to be a sound long-term investment for the Eagles, but for now it looks like they outsmarted themselves in passing on some of the other WRs from the 2020 rookie class. Reagor hasn't topped 55 receiving yards in any game this season, and he has just one touchdown for his trouble. While his struggles can largely be chalked up to a disastrous Eagles pass offense, the end result has been that Reagor can't be trusted in fantasy lineups.

Whatever help we might've thought was on the way when Jalen Hurts took over at QB, it hasn't amounted to much. Reagor is averaging over six targets per game in three weeks with Hurts as his starting quarterback, but he's hauled in just 10 catches for 125 yards. While Hurts' scrambling ability has helped make the offense more interesting to watch, his inaccuracy has limited his pass-catchers. Hurts has an on-target throw percentage of 41.8, which is bad even if we are only talking a three-game sample. No qualified QB has a rate lower than 60%. With Washington's formidable pass rush on the docket in Week 17, expect more improvisation outside the pocket from Hurts and more throws under duress. For my money, Philly's receivers and tight ends are a collection best revisited next summer as opposed to counting on any to close out 2020.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Green Bay Packers

10.7% rostered

Aaron Rodgers threw four touchdown passes on Sunday night as the Packers embarrassed the Titans, 40-14. "Wow, that's a lot of points and passing touchdowns. I bet Rodgers distributed the ball relatively equally to multiple receivers," said the guy who doesn't watch Packers games and never heard of Davante Adams. Twelve of Rodgers' 25 passing attempts were directed at Adams. No other player saw more than three, and Marquez Valdes-Scantling saw zero.

All I'm really doing here is telling you what you already know: Adams could have a pack of starving wolves chasing him around the field and Rodgers would still throw double-digit passes his way. Valdes-Scantling and everyone else just fall into place as distant secondary options through the air. Valdes-Scantling is coming off back-to-back games with zero receptions and heading into a matchup with a Bears Defense that has been stingy to opposing WRs and will be fighting for a playoff spot. No thanks.

Chicago Bears D/ST

72.1% rostered

I don't understand why this is possible considering Green Bay owns a head-to-head tiebreaker over New Orleans, but according to ESPN's NFL Playoff Machine, the Packers could theoretically wind up as low as the third seed in the NFC with a loss and wins by the Saints and Seahawks. Assuming they'd like to hold onto their first-round bye and avoid a potential wild-card matchup with the Rams, I'm gonna venture a guess that they keep their foot on the gas against the Bears in Week 17.

As respectable as the Bears have been in terms of limiting opponents' scoring, the Packers are no ordinary opponent. Green Bay put up 41 on this unit a month ago, a contest that can be counted as one of six times this season Aaron Rodgers has thrown four touchdown passes. If I've been rolling with the Bears defense over the last few weeks, I'm pivoting to streaming territory for the finale.

Chase Claypool, Pittsburgh Steelers

88.9% rostered

Chase Claypool was a force to be reckoned with for two months of the fantasy schedule, but he's fallen off in crunch time to the point where you now have to be genuinely concerned if he's in your lineup. Pittsburgh's struggling offense can be blamed for his pedestrian outings in Weeks 13-15, but he didn't do much when the Steelers got their groove back in Week 16, either. All in all, his last four games amount to the following: 12 catches, 24 targets, 161 yards, no touchdowns. That's a far cry from the high-end WR2 numbers he was putting up on a weekly basis earlier in the year. During this span, he's also been heavily out-targeted by JuJu Smith-Schuster and Diontae Johnson.

The Steelers will have some decisions to make in terms of how seriously they want to take Week 17. With a win, Pittsburgh can finish as the two-seed in the AFC at best, and play spoiler to the division rival Browns at worst. The two-seed is less advantageous without a bye attached to it, and even the prospect of delivering a haymaker to the championship-starved city of Cleveland might not be reason enough for the Steelers to go all-out and risk an injury to a starter--particularly Ben Roethlisberger. I'm not crazy about starting Claypool this week regardless, but I'm barricading him from my lineup if I get even the slightest hint the Steelers might rest their top offensive players.

Other Options To Consider Dropping

• Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona Cardinals
• Teddy Bridgewater, Carolina Panthers
• Dalton Schultz, Dallas Cowboys
• Danny Amendola, Detroit Lions
• Tevin Coleman, San Francisco 49ers

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