The Cut List (Week 14) - Time to Let Go?

December 9, 2020

Chris O'Reilly's list of potential busts and overvalued players who fantasy football managers may want to consider cutting and dropping for Week 14 of the season.

Welcome to the fantasy playoff edition of the Cut List. If you're still thinking about who to keep and who to drop, congratulations. You survived the most mind-numbingly frustrating regular season in NFL history, including a Week 13 so rife with crippling fantasy moments that it's hard to know where to start.

You could've been facing Derek Carr or Henry Ruggs III, the beneficiaries of the Jets' astounding decision to send the house on a play where they were obviously going to need extra defensive backs in deep coverage with five seconds on the clock and the Raiders needing a 46-yard touchdown to win. You might've needed one more touchdown from Deshaun Watson, whose center, Nick Martin, flung an errant snap away from his quarterback at the opponents' two-yard-line to end a would-be go-ahead drive in the waning moments of the fourth quarter. Instead of a chance at a touchdown, Watson was charged with a fumble. Maybe you've been a joyful passenger on the Justin Herbert train all year, a train that sure picked a hell of a time to burst into flames and careen off the rails in an absolute pasting at the hands of the Patriots.

Hopefully, you weren't the person who started Clyde Edwards-Helaire only to watch him stand on the sideline for four quarters without logging a snap. Yes, it was a cruel regular season capped off by a fittingly masochistic Week 13. Now the playoffs are here, and you deserve even more credit than usual if you've managed to be among the teams left standing.

Droppable Players

Before we dive into the Week 14 Cut List, a few things: First, don't be the person in your league who drops a bunch of start-worthy players out of spite because you missed the playoffs. Whether your league utilizes waiver-wire order or a free-agent budget system, some manager will inevitably benefit more than another from suddenly having a bunch of usable players available. Don't sour the integrity of your league by gifting somebody a top-15 wide receiver just because you're mad.

Also, a lot of leagues employ different rules about picking up and dropping players during the playoffs. The primary reason for this is usually to prevent managers from acquiring players they know they're not going to use, just so other managers can't use them either. Make sure you're aware of whatever rules (if any) your league has in this regard so you don't start a wildfire in the league group text and give your commissioner a needless headache.

Now, let's help you start shaping that Round 1 lineup by getting rid of the guys you don't want in it.

Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings

44.5% rostered

Kirk Cousins has played very well of late, going for at least 300 yards and three touchdowns in each of his last three games. He was a fine streaming option for the home stretch of the regular season. He also put those numbers up against bad defenses in Dallas, Carolina, and Jacksonville, who have combined to give up just under 20 fantasy points per game to opposing QBs (per Pro Football Reference). Those games were also all at home.

His next three opponents will offer a greater series of challenges. In Week 14, Cousins will face the Buccaneers and their second-best pressure rate on the road. In Week 16, he'll venture to New Orleans to face one of the best all-around defenses in the league, one which also ranks in the top eight in terms of QB pressure rate. Sandwiched in between these two daunting matchups is a date with the Bears, at home, in Week 15. While there is nothing exceptionally impressive about Chicago, they have been among the league's stingier fantasy defenses against quarterbacks.

There isn't a favorable matchup in Cousins' playoff schedule unless you decide your championship in Week 17, in which case you'll get the chance to trot him out against the Lions. If you've been employing a dual-QB strategy, now might be the time to put the fate of your team in the hands of whoever it is you've paired with Cousins. I couldn't confidently start him in any of Weeks 14-16 unless I was totally out of other options.

Phillip Lindsay, Denver Broncos

45.1% rostered

Were Melvin Gordon's 131 yards on 15 carries in Week 13 a mirage? Probably. But he's posted two strong fantasy outings in his last three games, and is the only Denver running back doing anything of consequence in a relatively even backfield split. Phillip Lindsay, meanwhile, has accumulated 46 yards on 23 carries in his last two games, and has seen just one target in his last three. Lindsay's ineffectiveness combined with Gordon evidently remembering he is a professional football player could (and should) diminish the former's workload going forward.

Even if it doesn't, there is no current version of the fantasy universe in which you're going to feel like you can start Lindsay with the stakes as high as they are in the playoffs. His occasionally impressive performances are too few and far between to accurately predict when the next one might be coming, and with just one touchdown all year, it's not as though he presents any scoring upside as an emergency flex play. If I can't envision myself starting a player in the playoffs, I don't have much cause to keep him on my roster.

Travis Fulgham, Philadelphia Eagles

53.4% rostered

"Hey, thanks for single-handedly keeping our passing offense alive for five weeks," Doug Pederson and Carson Wentz said to Travis Fulgham before completely eliminating him from the Eagles' game plan. I mentioned Fulgham as a "Hold For Now" player a few weeks ago because his target share was still respectable despite a lack of production, but now even that isn't true. Fulgham has seen 16 targets in his last four games, converting them into four catches for 32 yards. He had zero catches on two targets in the Week 13 loss to Green Bay.

With Philly's offense looking as bad as it ever has in my life, it's tough to trust even the players who are being utilized. Fulgham is just taking up a bench spot on your fantasy roster at this point, and can safely be jettisoned to the waiver wire.

Golden Tate, New York Giants

22.9% rostered

Golden Tate's allure as a fantasy player has always been the strong volume he enjoys as a reliable possession receiver. With just 47 targets in 10 games this season, Tate is on pace to finish with 66, which would be his lowest total since 2011. He has not caught more than four passes in a game since Week 3, and has not eclipsed the 50-yard threshold once this season. He began the year with a healthy enough target share to at least keep him on the fantasy radar (5.75 targets per game from Weeks 2-5), but that volume has mostly evaporated ever since the Giants began finding ways to stay in games (4.0 targets per game from Weeks 6-13, which even includes a season-high nine in Week 12).

The Giants are a surprisingly competitive team that seems to have realized they can get into the playoffs by way of a technicality if they just play respectable defense, which is to say the reason they're currently on a four-game winning streak is decidedly not their offense. They rank third-worst in points per game at 19.3, and only the Patriots have thrown fewer touchdown passes than the Giants' nine. Meanwhile, they run the ball just well enough to further negate the need for any added responsibility on the back of Daniel Jones (or Colt McCoy for as long as Jones is sidelined). In the last five games Jones finished, he threw at a clip of 30.4 pass attempts per game--almost five fewer than the league average of 35.2. McCoy threw 22 passes in Week 13. The air is clearly an alternate means of transportation for New York in the second half of the season.

One of my determining factors on roster maintenance this late is to avoid players in roles their real-life teams don't want to use. The Giants don't want to throw the ball, and thus Tate is an extremely difficult sell on fantasy rosters as their fourth receiving option.

Hold For Now

Michael Pittman Jr., Indianapolis Colts

42.5% rostered

A two-game stretch with 10 catches for 167 yards and a touchdown on 11 targets had many fantasy managers thinking big for the end of Michael Pittman's rookie season, but that hasn't materialized just yet. In the two games since those impressive outings in Weeks 10-11, Pittman has hauled in just seven catches for 74 yards. The good news? He's seen 14 targets in this span, and caught all five of his Week 13 looks after a rough Week 12 in which he grabbed just two of nine.

As long as the volume stays where it has been of late, there's no reason to think Pittman doesn't have another start-worthy game or two in him before season's end. His next two opponents are the Raiders and Texans, both of whom have been kind to opposing WRs in fantasy. For WR-needy fantasy managers, there are worse guys to consider than the WR2 in a Colts offense that has taken a turn for pass-happy in recent weeks (39 pass attempts per game from Weeks 9-13). You may have to demote him to the bench if you make it to the championship in Week 16 when the Colts face the Steelers, but Pittman might be able to help get you that far if you're light on superior wideouts.

Other Options To Consider Dropping

• Brian Hill, Atlanta Falcons
• Jimmy Graham, Chicago Bears
• Austin Hooper, Cleveland Browns
• Carlos Hyde, Seattle Seahawks
• Emmanuel Sanders, New Orleans Saints
• Salvon Ahmed, Miami Dolphins

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