The Cut List - Time to Let Go? Week 3

April 8, 2024

Jamie's list of busts, overvalued and injured players who fantasy baseball managers may want to consider cutting and dropping for Week 3 of the 2024 MLB season.

Welcome back to a new season of The Cut List. This is our weekly article looking at players whom fantasy managers might be considering cutting from their teams and struggling players who need a closer look. We'll look at players who are worthy of a drop, players who are worth monitoring for replacing, and someone on the hot seat who is worth holding on to... for now.

Those of you experienced Cut List readers will know I'm a strong advocate for not making knee-jerk reactions. A bad week or two shouldn't be a reason to push the panic button and dump someone, especially this early in the season. As the year progresses, there will be stronger cases to drop underperforming players.

If there's ever someone you want me to take a look at, drop their name on Reddit, the RotoBaller Discord (which you can join by clicking here), or reach out to me on X (@Baseball_Jimbo), and maybe you'll see them included next week. All stats and rostered rates (taken from Yahoo!) reflect when this piece was written.

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Introduction

Those of you experienced Cut List readers will be aware of these things already. But, for any new readers (and as a reminder to returning readers), here are a few pointers before we begin.

Firstly, at this stage of the season, you shouldn't be dropping players based on performance. We should be looking at roles and playing time trends in the early going to determine someone's fantasy value moving forward. You're not dropping George Kirby because he has a 6.97 ERA after two starts.

.@CleGuardians make it 8-0 on Will Brennan’s 2-out RBI single

The 8 runs surrendered by @Mariners starter George Kirby are the most ever in his young career.

He’s done and it’s on to the M’s pen.

Wow

— Jensen Lewis (@JLEWFifty) April 3, 2024

This isn't a hard-and-fast list. Every drop means you're adding someone. The size and type of league will determine who is on waivers and whether you really should be dropping a certain player. The article will highlight particular things you should be looking at with each player. And whether it's reason(s) to consider dropping or holding them.

Every week, there are dozens of players that could be included. Some may be slumping but you shouldn't be too concerned. Some may be stuttering and will have red flags when looking at their numbers. There are simply too many to be included each week. We will generally try to include players at least 40% rostered, but that's not a rule for inclusion.

Just because one of your players isn't listed doesn't mean you shouldn't be thinking about them as drop candidates. For each player included here, there will be reasons that cover other players. Whether it's a role change or an underlying number, things will be covered that apply to more than one player. Which brings us to the final point.

It's your fantasy team and you ultimately have to make the decisions. Don't drop a player just because someone suggests it. Take the information on board, but if you think a player is worth dropping despite the suggestion being to hold them, then drop them. As mentioned, it's entirely dependent on who is available to you as a replacement anyway.

Without further ado, here is the first Cut List of the 2024 MLB season.

Worth Dropping and Replacing?

Matt McLain - 2B/SS, Cincinnati Reds - 72% rostered

McLain's 2023 season ended early when he suffered a right oblique strain in August. He came into spring with some questions looming about his health and after five games, his preseason ended. McLain required shoulder surgery, which he underwent in March. It was his left shoulder, so not linked to his oblique injury late last year.

It's difficult to gauge exactly when McLain can be expected back. But, the information that came out of Cincinnati wasn't exactly confidence-inducing. Nick Krall (Reds president of baseball operations) said "we hope to have Matt back this season." The fact the Reds are hoping rather than expecting for a return suggests at best that he may return for the final few weeks.

An update on Matt McLain: pic.twitter.com/j34SQIifKH

— Cincinnati Reds (@Reds) March 27, 2024

Verdict: By all means, leave McLain on your IL if you drafted him. However, in most leagues, you will need that spot over the coming weeks. If you do, you can drop McLain. There are no guarantees we even see him in 2024.

Alex Lange - RP, Detroit Tigers - 64% rostered

Lange was drafted with the expectation he'd be closing for the Tigers. It's a role he had last year in Detroit with mixed results. In 67 games, Lange had a 7-5 W-L record, 3.68 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 79 Ks, and 26 saves (66.0 IP). Lange also had six blown saves and struggled with his control throughout the year. There were a total of 357 pitchers with at least 50.0 IP last year. None had a higher walk rate than Lange (15.6% BB%).

The control issues seem to be the reason why the Tigers are using Jason Foley as their closer. Foley had picked up the Tigers' first two saves of the season, with Lange only pitching in the seventh inning. On Friday, Lange was called upon to get the final out of a one-run game with two runners on base. He struck out Zack Gelof to record his first save of the season.

It was noticeable that Foley was used in the eighth inning with the scores tied. He faced the 3-4-5 hitters in the lineup. Andrew Chafin got the chance to record the save but walked two of the four batters he faced, which led to Lange being called upon. It certainly doesn't look like Lange is seen as the main closing option. But it does look like the Tigers' bullpen usage will be fluid with no "locked-in" roles.

Verdict: Lange's save on Friday was situational in that Foley faced the heart of the order in the eighth. Then, Chafin struggled to get the final out in the ninth. Lange may have moved past Chafin in the pecking order. But the Tigers will still use Foley as their main closer with Tyler Holton and Shelby Miller mixed in. Lange isn't more than a deep-league option.

Esteury Ruiz - OF, Oakland Athletics - 59% rostered

Ruiz found himself being drafted in the middle rounds of most fantasy drafts. That was down to his speed and the potential for 60+ stolen bases again. Last year, Ruiz hit .254/.309/.345 with five homers, 47 RBI, 47 runs, and 67 stolen bases (132 games). Ruiz hit .236/.295/.400 in spring (61 plate appearances). He then went 3-for-8 with a triple and a double in three games before being demoted to Triple-A.

The move came as a shock given it was so early in the season and Ruiz had started the year hot. But, it appears as though the A's were intent on Ruiz starting the season at Triple-A before Miguel Andujar got hurt. If you were paying close attention, it may not have been a complete surprise. Ruiz found himself losing playing time to Lawrence Butler late in 2023. Butler looks like being in the lineup when the A's face right-handed pitchers (RHP).

Mark Kotsay explains why the decision to send Esteury Ruiz to Triple-A was made today and details his message to last season's AL stolen base leader pic.twitter.com/ESaewGvAYt

— A's on NBCS (@NBCSAthletics) April 2, 2024

Verdict: Ruiz may be back in the majors soon. He may not return until after the All-Star break. If you drafted him as your main source of stolen bases and can hold him on the bench, then do so. But, if you have good options or other needs to fill off waivers, Ruiz can be dropped. Even if he does return to Oakland later in the year, it's not a given he plays regularly and hits well enough to justify a starting role.

Hold For Now

Royce Lewis - 3B, Minnesota Twins - 96% rostered

If you drafted Lewis, you should have been expecting an IL stint at some point. Most would have expected him to at least last one game. Unfortunately, after managing just 70 games over the previous two seasons, this is the reality Lewis's fantasy managers are experiencing. Lewis suffered a quad strain during the Twins' season opener and is expected to miss at least a month.

We heard on Thursday that Lewis received a "platelet-rich plasma injection." Hopefully, that will significantly assist the recovery and we see Lewis in early May. Even if it's longer, you're not going to drop Lewis. If you drafted him, you did so for the talent and his upside. You will have known this was a possibility. Providing we don't receive news that Lewis is going to miss considerably more than a month, you'll want to hold on to him.

Royce Lewis said he got a PRP injection to help his quad heal. Spoke of his urgency to obviously get back to the field as quickly as he can.

— Do-Hyoung Park (@dohyoungpark) April 4, 2024

Tanner Scott - RP, Miami Marlins - 87% rostered

It's been a tough start for Miami. Winless through the first week and a bit, which has left Scott without a save opportunity. He has still made four appearances and has not made the most of them. Scott has a 0-2 W-L record, 2.25 ERA, 1.75 WHIP, and five strikeouts (4.0 IP). Scott took losses in back-to-back games on Sunday and Monday. Both were very different outings.

The first came in the 10th inning of a tied game. Scott made an error and allowed a walk and a hit that ultimately saw two runs scored. Monday's loss came with Scott taking the eighth inning of a tied game, facing the top of the Angels lineup. He promptly walked all three batters before retiring the next three batters, allowing one run in the process. Scott did have a clean inning of work yesterday in another losing effort as the Marlins fell to 0-9.

There's no reason to believe Scott won't be the predominant closer for the Marlins. Like with many teams, there will be occasions when he gets the eighth inning depending on the opponent's lineup. As frustrating as the lack of save opportunities has been, that won't continue. We should see Scott getting the bulk of early save chances. Providing he doesn't struggle like he has in tied games, Scott should remain rostered.

William Smith - RP, Kansas City Royals - 52% rostered

Like Scott, Smith has had a difficult start to the season. In four appearances (3.0 IP), Smith has a 0-2 W-L record, 18.00 ERA, 3.33 WHIP, three strikeouts, and one save. After allowing six earned runs in his first three outings (2.2 IP), the most notable concern for Smith's fantasy managers came on Friday when the Royals held on to beat the White Sox, 2-1.

Smith came on to protect the one-run lead in the ninth inning. After striking out Yoan Moncada, Smith gave up a double and then a walk. That was enough to see him replaced with James McArthur. McArthur then got a game-ending double play on his second pitch to record his first save of the season. McArthur is sporting a 9.82 ERA himself, so it's too early to annoint him as the Royals closer.

John Schreiber has yet to give up a run (3.2 IP) and has two holds. He came on to relieve starter Brady Singer in the seventh inning on Friday, so wasn't available in the ninth inning. He could very well find himself entrusted with closing out games if his fine start to the season continues. Saturday saw Chris Stratton record the save with the aforementioned names deemed unavailable.

Given the majority of the Royals bullpen has been considerably better than Smith in the early goings, a change could well be in the offing. We've yet to hear anything official on the closer role, so holding onto Smith makes sense. But be prepared to pull the trigger on dropping him in the coming days.

Before you overreact to the James McArthur save, just remember that Will Smith was pulled mid-inning and John Schreiber had already thrown. I don’t think this is a cut and dry swap of closers

— Eric Samulski (@SamskiNYC) April 6, 2024

Jack Suwinski - OF, Pittsburgh Pirates - 45% rostered

Fantasy managers who drafted Suwinski will have had concerns about their draft day decision after the first couple of games of the season. Suwinski didn't start in either and after little more than one week of the season, it seems clear that he is in something of a platoon. Nine of his 35 plate appearances so far have come against LHP, but he's not started three games, all against lefty starting pitchers.

While that might be frustrating for fantasy managers, it might not be a bad thing. Suwinski has gone 4-for-9 against LHP this year and his only homer came off a southpaw. But, if we look at his splits last season, we can see why Suwinski isn't an everyday starter and will likely continue to sit against most lefty starting pitchers.

As mentioned in the introduction, it's too early to be concerned about Suwinski's numbers. He's one big game away from being on track to repeat last year. If Suwinski can make the most of his at-bats against LHP, he should see more opportunities against them. And when he does play, Suwinski is hitting cleanup for the Pirates. Don't worry about his numbers at this stage. Just monitor his usage.

Luis Rengifo - 2B/3B/SS/OF, Los Angeles Angels - 41% rostered

It's a similar story for Rengifo, who appears to have found himself in something of a platoon to start the season. The problem is, despite being a switch hitter, Rengifo isn't facing RHP. And isn't always facing LHP. The utility player is just that, being used in a utility role. He's only had 14 plate appearances, so I'm not making anything of his .357/.357/.500 slash line.

A comparison of Rengifo's numbers last year against RHP and LHP shows us he was considerably better against lefties. But, Rengifo still had decent numbers against righties. And when you see him losing out on playing time to Anthony Rendon and Miguel Sano, it's understandable why fantasy managers are frustrated.

Rengifo was mainly a deep-league option. As a result, there will likely be few better options on waivers. It's not hard to see Rengifo get more playing time as things progress. The likelihood of Rendon staying on the field is slim. The chances of Sano being productive aren't much better. There are routes to more at-bats available to Rengifo, so giving him more time on your rosters makes sense.

On the Hot Seat

Jose Leclerc - RP, Texas Rangers - 75% rostered

It's fair to say the Rangers managed to win the World Series despite their bullpen, rather than because of it. No team had more blown saves in 2023 (33) than the Rangers while their 4.77 ERA from relievers was the seventh worst. Smith (22 saves) and Aroldis Chapman (four saves) departed and that left the door open for Leclerc to lead the team in saves this year.

However, things haven't started well for Leclerc. He recorded the first save for any Rangers pitcher yesterday. It was by far his best outing after looking shaky in the early goings. Before Saturday, Lelcerc had walked five batters and allowed six earned runs in three outings (2.2 IP). Meanwhile, offseason signing David Robertson hadn't allowed an earned run over 4.2 IP.

On Saturday, Robertson was tasked with pitching the seventh inning with the Rangers up by a run. He faced the Astros' 2-3-4 hitters and retired them all. Leclerc entered the game to get the final out of the eighth inning, protecting the one-run lead. He did so. The Rangers then scored four runs in the bottom of the eighth. Leclerc stayed in the game to pitch the ninth, up by five runs. He did so and recorded the save.

That isn't to say it was all plain sailing for Leclerc. After getting the first two outs of the ninth inning, Leclerc gave up a double to Jose Altuve, which was followed by a single by Yordan Alvarez. He then threw a wild pitch, which would've normally scored a run, before getting Kyle Tucker to fly out, ending the game. It wasn't a bad performance, but still enough noteworthy incidents to keep Leclerc under scrutiny.

It felt at the time of his signing that Robertson was an insurance policy should Leclerc struggle. And the Rangers might be cashing in on that policy sooner rather than later. Of course, we need to see Leclerc in more save situations before making any decisions. But it wouldn't hurt to pick up Robertson if you roster Lelcerc, as your own insurance policy.

The concern is that Leclerc was better last year in non-save situations than he was at locking down wins (as we can see below).

If that trend continues this year and Leclerc has issues in the ninth inning, the leash might be short. Robertson is lurking to take the closer job. And after putting up a 2.72 ERA across the previous two seasons (129.0 IP), he could run with it for the remainder of the year.

Reader Requests

As in previous years, we're keen to hear who you want us to analyze. If there is anyone who you want to include here on next week's Cut List, drop their names on the Reddit thread or over on the RotoBaller Discord. Alternatively, you can reach out to me on X and we'll endeavor to cover as many requests as we can each week.

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