RADIO
CURRENT ADP: 50
RANKINGS STATUS: Fairly Valued
ANALYSS: Craig Kimbrel has been the king of the fantasy closers since his first full season in the role in 2011, but somehow he has lost that distinction to Cincinnati's Aroldis Chapman heading into 2015. Nothing against Chapman, but Kimbrel should still be the first closer off the board on draft day. While it is true that his ERA jumped all the way to 1.61 in 2014 from the previous year's 1.21, his new number is still elite - and significantly better than Chapman's 2.00. His walk rate also rose a year ago, from 2.69 BB/9 in 2013 to 3.79 last year. This is somewhat troubling but only means one extra baserunner per nine appearances on average, hardly enough to justify knocking Kimbrel down in the rankings.
More importantly, Kimbrel is still the same dominant player fantasy owners have come to rely upon. His K/9 actually rose last year, from 13.16 to 13.86. More advanced metrics actually support this modest gain, as his Z-Contact % (how often a batter manages to make contact with pitchers inside the strike zone) decreased from 82.8% to 73%. The elevated ERA can be explained by a lower strand rate, as Kimbrel's 81.5% LOB% (left on base percentage) in 2014 was far lower than the roughly 92% he posted the previous two years. Assuming that number returns to his career norm, the ERA should drop accordingly.
The Braves offense was weakened this offseason with the departure of Evan Gattis and Justin Upton. Their starting pitching is still solid however, which should lead to plenty of close games for Kimbrel. Trevor Hoffman was once baseball's all-time saves leader despite the teams he closed for holding a collective winning percentage of .492.
Many closers pitched for better teams than Hoffman, but only one has recorded more saves. Mariano Rivera surpassed him not because the Yankees were better than the Padres but because he was a better pitcher, plain and simple. For a more extreme example, consider that the atrocious 2003 Detroit Tigers (43 - 119 record) still managed 28 saves and 19 blown saves. Had Kimbrel closed for them, the worst team in modern memory, he probably would have eclipsed 40 saves. The Braves may be bad this year but not '03 Tigers bad. Barring injury, Kimbrel will get enough opportunities to provide his owners with a substantial number of saves in 2015.
One possible damper on Kimbrel's Fantasy value is the fact that he is a closer when many owners do not wish to "pay for saves." So many experts have embraced this strategy that it may be prudent to zig when others zag if Kimbrel falls far enough in the draft. Whether you want to pay for saves or not, Kimbrel should be the first saves specialist off the board. Any other outcome is market inefficiency that should be exploited.
