Corey Kluber to the Yankees - Fantasy Impact

It's been two years since we've seen a full season of work out of Corey Kluber. After throwing just 36.2 innings since 2019, Kluber was a man on a mission this offseason to prove he still had something left in the tank. Wednesday's pitching showcase has paid off for Kluber, as he will sign with the Yankees on a one-year deal.

There are going to be a lot of questions surrounding the two-time Cy Young Award winner. He will be joining New York in his age-35 season. He's suffered three significant injuries that cost him the last two seasons. His latest injury was to his shoulder — will his pitching be affected by it going forward? Even if he plays a full year, will he even be worth rostering in fantasy?

The best way to predict Kluber's fantasy value in 2021 will be to look into the type of injury he suffered last year as well as how his numbers were trending prior to 2019. So let's find out if managers should even bother considering Kluber this season.

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Back from the Fantasy Graveyard?

First lets look at Kluber's recent injury history. It all started in May 2019, when Kluber was hit by a line drive that fractured his throwing arm. He returned to action in August when he went on a minor league rehab assignment, but in his third rehab start he exited with an oblique strain which would end his 2019 campaign.

Flash forward to July 2020. After being traded to Texas in the offseason, Kluber made his debut with the Rangers and threw only 18 pitches before exiting with yet another injury. This time it was a Grade 2 tear of the teres major muscle in his right (throwing) shoulder, and it would prove to be a season-ending injury for Kluber. He would end up opting to not undergo surgery, and instead work on a rehabilitation program.

Considering the fact he will be 35 this year and he's coming off a shoulder injury, we need to get a better understanding of how a torn teres major muscle can affect a pitcher. We're not here for medical school, so the quick and dirty explanation is that the teres major is a muscle that is most in use when a pitcher's arm is accelerating while throwing the pitch. According to medical studies of teres major injuries in pitchers, tears like what Kluber suffered can often be treated without surgery, and on average pitchers who do not undergo surgery return to play in a little over four months, and they tend to be able to return to pre-injury form.

You can find somewhat of a comparison with this injury in Kluber's former teammate Mike Clevinger, who also suffered a teres major tear in 2019. In that case, Clevinger also did not undergo surgery and he missed about two months. Clevinger's injury has not appeared to have much of an effect on his command or his velocity, as his numbers in 2019 and 2020 line up almost identically with his career lines. Granted, Clevinger is about five years younger and had roughly 1,000 fewer innings pitched at the time of his injury than Kluber, but it does suggest there is potential there for Kluber to rebound from his latest injury and pitch close to his pre-2019 form.

Looking at the Numbers

Alright now let's take a look at his numbers over the past few years to try and get a better idea of what we can expect in 2021.

In his last full season in 2018, despite a slight dip in some numbers from his 2017 Cy Young campaign, Kluber was still one of the top starters in the game. He won 20 games (for what that's worth), posted a 26.4 percent strikeout rate, a career-best 4.0 percent walk rate, and a 12 percent swinging strike rate. But there were some cracks that were beginning to show in his game. For starters, Kluber's velocity has been slowly declining since 2014:

	Fastball	Sinker	Cutter
2014	94.6	94.2	89.6
2015	93.6	93.8	89.3
2016	93.4	93.5	90.1
2017	92.9	92.8	89.2
2018	92.4	92.4	88.9
2019	92.3	91.9	88.5

And then looking at his Statcast numbers, after posting a career-high 5.8 percent barrel rate and a 33.1 percent hard-hit rate in 2018, Kluber surpassed those marks in his shortened 2019 season with an 8.9 percent barrel rate and a 38.4 percent hard-hit rate. Granted, those 2019 numbers should be taken with a grain of salt due to small sample size, but it's still a factor to take into consideration for 2021.

2021 Outlook

So where does that leave us? Let's start by establishing Kluber's stat line from his last full season in 2018:

20-7, 2.89 ERA (3.12 FIP, 3.08 xFIP, 3.23 SIERA), 0.991 WHIP 26.4 K%, 4.0 BB%, 215 IP

It's entirely possible that Kluber could pitch close to those numbers in 2021, but it's not very likely and managers should not anticipate that value when deciding where to acquire him in the draft. Assuming a healthy season from Kluber, it seems likely he should pitch at least 150 innings and he should likely be in position for at least 10 wins based on prior history and the potential from the Yankees roster. Conservatively, pencil Kluber in for around a 3.30 ERA and a 1.200 WHIP, and no lower than an 8.0 K/9 — so something around 135 to 140 strikeouts.

Based on those estimates, a good point of comparison in draft value right now would be Michael Pineda, who currently has an ADP of 230. Look at Kluber as a potential late-round bargain in most formats. And even if he doesn't match up with this predicted value, drafting him late should make him easy enough to replace without hurting your team.

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