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Contact Rate Risers and Fallers - Week 21

Pierre Camus looks at fantasy baseball risers and fallers in the contact rate category for week 21 to determine who may be worth buying or selling for 2017.

Welcome back, RotoBallers! Batting average is just one of many statistics fantasy owners must consider, but contact rate can also be telling of all-around success at the plate. A sudden increase or decrease in contact rate could signal the beginning of an extended hot or cold streak, leading to important waiver wire choices or start/sit decisions for fantasy baseball managers.

Each week we will look at a few players who are rising and falling in terms of contact and compare their previous week's contact rate with their season-long performance.

Here are some of the top contact rate risers and fallers for Week 21 of the fantasy baseball season.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Contact Rate Risers

Alcides Escobar (SS, KC) 92% contact rate last seven days (+13%)

Let's cut to the chase here: you do not want to own Alcides Escobar. If you are one who filters for performance over the last seven days or reacts to the waiver wire based on a list such as this, where Escobar is at the top of the contact rate risers, you aren't doing your due diligence. Escobar is batting .239 for the season, walks just over two percent of the time, and looks destined to finish with a career-high K rate. That aside, the only real reason to own Escobar in the first place is for speed and that has simply evaporated. He's inexplicably stolen just four bases all year, while being caught an equal number of times. With zero power upside to boot, his days of fantasy relevance seem over.

Cameron Rupp (C, PHI) 91% contact rate last seven days (+24%)

It's amazing what a little competition can do to a player's motivation. Since Jorge Alfaro was brought up, Rupp is 9-for-30 (.300) with a pair of homers and four RBI. This is still going to be a timeshare throughout September, but if you're in a two-catcher league or simply desperate for a backstop, Rupp could provide value. In a perfect world, you have bench space to add both him and Alfaro (and they're both available), so you can play daily matchups. You have that kind of time, right?

Neil Walker (2B, MIL) 89% contact rate last seven days (+6%)

The jump is rather small, but the rate is pretty high. Since moving to Milwaukee, Walker has been inspired (moving away from the Big Apple can do that to a player). He's stroking a smooth .435/.519/.565 and has walked twice as much as he's struck out. Granted, this is just over a seven-game period, so let's not get too carried away. Still, Walker should be invigorated by a much friendlier home ballpark and more energetic lineup. He was a popular preseason sleeper who, like most Mets this season, simply didn't live up to the billing. It's not too late to squeeze some fantasy value out of him over the last few weeks, though.

Manuel Margot (OF, SD) 91% contact rate last seven days (+10%)

This week's contact gainer who didn't gain many actual hits is Padres outfielder Manuel Margot. Like many rookies, he has been prone to hot and cold streaks all year. Despite cutting down on strikeouts, he was only hitting .182 in the past week and .203 in August until tonight's two-hit, three-run effort. The good news is that he's actually hit more homers in the second half over 100 fewer at-bats than the first half, but he's only stolen two bags in the last month. The talent is tantalizing, but we may have to wait another year for the whole package to come together. At least he's managed to keep himself on the big league roster, unlike teammate Hunter Renfroe.

 

Contact Rate Fallers

Brad Miller (1B/2B/SS, TB) 48% contact rate last seven days (-24%)

Target Miller in the later rounds they said. He'll be a great power value at second base they said. "They" was actually me, but revisionist history aside, it's been a miserable season for Miller any way you slice it. 30 home runs were never going to be repeatable, but the fact he's hitting at a .187 clip and has only swatted five homers in 79 games made him a detriment to owners who stuck with him through the bad times and... the bad times.

Cory Spangenberg (2B/3B, SD) 51% contact rate last seven days (-23%)

Spangy has flat out been one of the best hitters in the National League since the break, but he may finally be cooling off. An 0-for-3 Tuesday night gives him three hits in his last 20 at-bats (.150). The way he's been hitting, it's not wise to dismiss him just yet, but proceed with caution.

Ryan Braun (OF, MIL) 65% contact rate last seven days (-14%)

Is Braun done in Milwaukee after this season? He's reportedly been on the block for a while, but injuries and the Brewers' surprising playoff contention this year changed those plans. In fantasy terms, Braun isn't going to win any MVP awards, but that's mostly due to time missed. His ratios are fairly in line with career norms and he's actually on pace to finish with the highest hard-hit percentage since his rookie year. Last week wasn't his best (.167 with no homers, no runs and two RBI), but don't read too much into it. This is one former MVP that shouldn't be written off yet.

Kendrys Morales (1B/DH, TOR) 59% contact rate last seven days (-14%)

His 0.33 BB/K would be the lowest since 2012 and his .242 batting average is the lowest since 2014. Since hitting .295 in May, his average has dropped each successive month, down to .159 in August thus far. Otherwise, Morales has delivered the type of power you'd expect. If you're still hanging onto him, you might be relieved to know that he's hit more HR in September than any other month throughout his career.

 

More Risers and Fallers




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REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Gleyber Torres

Accepts Tigers Qualifying Offer
Ausar Thompson

Returning Versus Atlanta
Cade Cunningham

Active on Tuesday Night
Domantas Sabonis

to Miss Wednesday's Game
Paul George

Won't Play Wednesday Night
Onyeka Okongwu

Available on Tuesday
Joel Embiid

Listed as Doubtful for Wednesday
Jalen Suggs

Available Tuesday
Zaccharie Risacher

Ruled Out With Hip Contusion vs. Pistons
Odell Beckham Jr.

Officially Reinstated by NFL Commissioner
Kristaps Porzingis

Ruled Out on Tuesday Night
Buddy Hield

Available for Tuesday's Matchup With Orlando
Matt Murray

to Miss Six Weeks With Lower-Body Injury
Ilya Lyubushkin

Out on Tuesday
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Out 1-2 Weeks With Groin Strain
Jamie Benn

Makes Season Debut Tuesday
Stephon Castle

Sidelined 1-2 Weeks
Evgenii Dadonov

on Track to Return Tuesday
Dougie Hamilton

a Game-Time Call Tuesday
Anthony Cirelli

Expected to Return Against Devils
Victor Hedman

Questionable for Tuesday
LeBron James

Aims to Make Season Debut Tuesday
Auston Matthews

to Miss at Least Two More Games
Grayson Allen

Sidelined on Tuesday
Gabe Vincent

Set to Suit Up Tuesday
C.J. Stroud

Expected to Return in Week 13 Against Colts
C.J. Stroud

to Miss Another Game
Jonathan Kuminga

Remains Out Tuesday
Keegan Murray

Could Make his Season Debut This Week
Caris LeVert

Liston as Out on Tuesday
Tobias Harris

Could Return Thursday
Ausar Thompson

Questionable Again on Tuesday
Joe Mixon

Uncertainty Remains Around Joe Mixon's Return Timeline
Cade Cunningham

is Questionable Tuesday in Atlanta
Jaylen Warren

Mike Tomlin Optimistic About Jaylen Warren's Availability for Week 12
C.J. Stroud

Not Expected to Play on Thursday Night
Aaron Rodgers

Won't Need Surgery on Fractured Wrist, Could Play in Week 12?
Davis Mills

Prepping for Third Straight Start in Week 12?
CFB

Sam Leavitt Set to Enter Transfer Portal?
Mason Rudolph

Could Make His First Start of 2025 in Week 12
Brock Wright

Sets Career-High in Targets; Lined Up for More Work?
Kimani Vidal

Struggles Again and Faces Role Uncertainty After Bye
Dak Prescott

in Full Command Monday Night With Four Touchdown Passes
Quentin Johnston

Posts Zero Catches During Offensive Collapse
George Pickens

Erupts for 144 Yards, Touchdown in Monday Night Win
CeeDee Lamb

George Pickens Benched for First Drive
Jose Altuve

Undergoes Foot Surgery
Alex Singleton

Broncos Optimistic Patrick Surtain, Alex Singleton Will Return After the Bye
Trey Hendrickson

Doubtful Again in Week 12
Shedeur Sanders

Expected to Make First Career Start in Week 12
Josh Jacobs

Dealing With Knee Contusion
Mikael Granlund

Unavailable Monday
Alex Bregman

Red Sox Going for Either Alex Bregman or Pete Alonso?
Conor Garland

Misses Monday's Game
Eetu Luostarinen

Out on Monday
Drake London

Considered "Week-to-Week"
Drew Doughty

Listed as Week-to-Week
Ja'Marr Chase

Being Suspended for One Game for Unsportsmanlike Conduct
John Carlson

a Game-Time Call Monday
Viktor Arvidsson

Out Week-to-Week
Charlie McAvoy

Out Against Hurricanes
CFB

James Franklin to be Virginia Tech's Next Head Coach
CFB

Fernando Mendoza the Clear Heisman Trophy Favorite?
CFB

Beau Pribula Has Chance to Face Oklahoma on Saturday
Mitchell Marner

Establishes Vegas Record Sunday
Mats Zuccarello

Logs Two Assists in Overtime Victory
Lucas Raymond

Leads Red Wings to Victory at MSG
Quinn Hughes

Delivers Four Assists in Sunday's Win
Conor Garland

Limited to Handful of Minutes Sunday
Ryan Hartman

Suffers Lower-Body Injury
Jack Della Maddalena

Gets Dominated
Islam Makhachev

Claims UFC Welterweight Belt
Zhang Weili

Gets Outclassed
Valentina Shevchenko

Wins Unanimous Decision At UFC 322
Sean Brady

Suffers First-Round TKO Loss
Michael Morales

Remains Unbeaten
Leon Edwards

Suffers Second-Round Knockout Loss
Leon Edwards

Carlos Prates Becomes The First Man To Knock Out Leon Edwards
Beneil Dariush

Suffers Brutal First-Round Knockout Loss
Beneil Dariush

Benoit Saint Denis Knocks Out Beneil Dariush In 16 Seconds
Josh Naylor

Mariners Finalizing Five-Year Contract
CFB

Jeremiah Smith, Carnell Tate Not Dealing With Long-Term Injuries
CFB

Virginia Tech Close To Naming James Franklin As Head Coach
CFB

Garrett Nussmeier Doubtful vs. Arkansas On Saturday
Edwin Díaz

Blue Jays Interested in Signing Edwin Diaz?
Jacob deGrom

Named AL Comeback Player of the Year
Ronald Acuña Jr.

Ronald Acuna Jr. Wins NL Comeback Player of the Year Award
Aroldis Chapman

Named AL Reliever of the Year
Edwin Díaz

Edwin Diaz Named NL Reliever of the Year
Justin Thomas

Will Miss Start Of 2026 After Undergoing Back Surgery
Islam Makhachev

Set For UFC 322 Main Event
Jack Della Maddalena

Set For His First Title Defense
Zhang Weili

Can Become The New Women's Flyweight Champion
Valentina Shevchenko

Set For UFC 322 Co-Main Event
Michael Morales

Looks To Remain Undefeated
CFB

Mario Craver a Game-Time Decision for Week 12
Sean Brady

Set For Title Eliminator Bout
Carlos Prates

A Favorite At UFC 322
Leon Edwards

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Benoît Saint Denis

Benoit Saint Denis Set To Open Up UFC 322 Main Card
Beneil Dariush

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
CFB

Virginia's Chandler Morris Trending Toward Facing Duke on Saturday
Edwin Díaz

Edwin Diaz Says There's a "50-50" Chance he Returns to Mets
Shohei Ohtani

Wins his Fourth MVP Award
Aaron Judge

Wins AL MVP Award Again
Raisel Iglesias

Dodgers Interested in Signing Raisel Iglesias
Pete Alonso

Orioles Could be in the Mix to Sign Pete Alonso
Félix Bautista

Felix Bautista Could Return in Second Half in 2026
Kodai Senga

Attracting Trade Interest, Will the Mets Move him?
Yordan Alvarez

Expected to be Ready for Spring Training
Byron Buxton

Could Waive his No-Trade Clause
Paul Skenes

the Unanimous NL Cy Young Winner
Tarik Skubal

Wins AL Cy Young for Second Straight Year

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