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Contact Rate Risers and Fallers - Week 21

Pierre Camus looks at fantasy baseball risers and fallers in the contact rate category for week 21 to determine who may be worth buying or selling for 2017.

Welcome back, RotoBallers! Batting average is just one of many statistics fantasy owners must consider, but contact rate can also be telling of all-around success at the plate. A sudden increase or decrease in contact rate could signal the beginning of an extended hot or cold streak, leading to important waiver wire choices or start/sit decisions for fantasy baseball managers.

Each week we will look at a few players who are rising and falling in terms of contact and compare their previous week's contact rate with their season-long performance.

Here are some of the top contact rate risers and fallers for Week 21 of the fantasy baseball season.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Contact Rate Risers

Alcides Escobar (SS, KC) 92% contact rate last seven days (+13%)

Let's cut to the chase here: you do not want to own Alcides Escobar. If you are one who filters for performance over the last seven days or reacts to the waiver wire based on a list such as this, where Escobar is at the top of the contact rate risers, you aren't doing your due diligence. Escobar is batting .239 for the season, walks just over two percent of the time, and looks destined to finish with a career-high K rate. That aside, the only real reason to own Escobar in the first place is for speed and that has simply evaporated. He's inexplicably stolen just four bases all year, while being caught an equal number of times. With zero power upside to boot, his days of fantasy relevance seem over.

Cameron Rupp (C, PHI) 91% contact rate last seven days (+24%)

It's amazing what a little competition can do to a player's motivation. Since Jorge Alfaro was brought up, Rupp is 9-for-30 (.300) with a pair of homers and four RBI. This is still going to be a timeshare throughout September, but if you're in a two-catcher league or simply desperate for a backstop, Rupp could provide value. In a perfect world, you have bench space to add both him and Alfaro (and they're both available), so you can play daily matchups. You have that kind of time, right?

Neil Walker (2B, MIL) 89% contact rate last seven days (+6%)

The jump is rather small, but the rate is pretty high. Since moving to Milwaukee, Walker has been inspired (moving away from the Big Apple can do that to a player). He's stroking a smooth .435/.519/.565 and has walked twice as much as he's struck out. Granted, this is just over a seven-game period, so let's not get too carried away. Still, Walker should be invigorated by a much friendlier home ballpark and more energetic lineup. He was a popular preseason sleeper who, like most Mets this season, simply didn't live up to the billing. It's not too late to squeeze some fantasy value out of him over the last few weeks, though.

Manuel Margot (OF, SD) 91% contact rate last seven days (+10%)

This week's contact gainer who didn't gain many actual hits is Padres outfielder Manuel Margot. Like many rookies, he has been prone to hot and cold streaks all year. Despite cutting down on strikeouts, he was only hitting .182 in the past week and .203 in August until tonight's two-hit, three-run effort. The good news is that he's actually hit more homers in the second half over 100 fewer at-bats than the first half, but he's only stolen two bags in the last month. The talent is tantalizing, but we may have to wait another year for the whole package to come together. At least he's managed to keep himself on the big league roster, unlike teammate Hunter Renfroe.

 

Contact Rate Fallers

Brad Miller (1B/2B/SS, TB) 48% contact rate last seven days (-24%)

Target Miller in the later rounds they said. He'll be a great power value at second base they said. "They" was actually me, but revisionist history aside, it's been a miserable season for Miller any way you slice it. 30 home runs were never going to be repeatable, but the fact he's hitting at a .187 clip and has only swatted five homers in 79 games made him a detriment to owners who stuck with him through the bad times and... the bad times.

Cory Spangenberg (2B/3B, SD) 51% contact rate last seven days (-23%)

Spangy has flat out been one of the best hitters in the National League since the break, but he may finally be cooling off. An 0-for-3 Tuesday night gives him three hits in his last 20 at-bats (.150). The way he's been hitting, it's not wise to dismiss him just yet, but proceed with caution.

Ryan Braun (OF, MIL) 65% contact rate last seven days (-14%)

Is Braun done in Milwaukee after this season? He's reportedly been on the block for a while, but injuries and the Brewers' surprising playoff contention this year changed those plans. In fantasy terms, Braun isn't going to win any MVP awards, but that's mostly due to time missed. His ratios are fairly in line with career norms and he's actually on pace to finish with the highest hard-hit percentage since his rookie year. Last week wasn't his best (.167 with no homers, no runs and two RBI), but don't read too much into it. This is one former MVP that shouldn't be written off yet.

Kendrys Morales (1B/DH, TOR) 59% contact rate last seven days (-14%)

His 0.33 BB/K would be the lowest since 2012 and his .242 batting average is the lowest since 2014. Since hitting .295 in May, his average has dropped each successive month, down to .159 in August thus far. Otherwise, Morales has delivered the type of power you'd expect. If you're still hanging onto him, you might be relieved to know that he's hit more HR in September than any other month throughout his career.

 

More Risers and Fallers




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REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Quentin Grimes

Unavailable on Tuesday
Paul George

Available to Play on Tuesday
LaMelo Ball

Expected to Play on Wednesday
Brandon Miller

Ruled Out for Wednesday's Game
Kristaps Porzingis

Sidelined Again for Wednesday
Kyshawn George

Upgraded to Available on Tuesday
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Expected to Suit Up Wednesday
Nathan Walker

Out for Eight Weeks
Lian Bichsel

to Sit Out 6-8 Weeks
Viktor Arvidsson

Activated From Injured Reserve
Warren Foegele

Remains Out Tuesday
Nikola Jokić

Nikola Jokic Probable for Wednesday
Valeri Nichushkin

Available After Eight-Game Absence
Gabriel Landeskog

Nathan MacKinnon, Gabriel Landeskog Cleared for Tuesday
Jamal Murray

Questionable for Wednesday
Tyson Foerster

to Miss 2-3 Months
CFB

D.J. Durkin Staying at Auburn Under Alex Golesh
Alexandre Sarr

Out of Action Again on Tuesday
Zion Williamson

Sidelined at Least Three Weeks
CFB

Charlie Weis Jr. Permitted to Coach Ole Miss Offense in College Football Playoff
Khris Middleton

Will Not Play Tuesday
Kyshawn George

Is Questionable Against the 76ers
Tyrone Tracy Jr.

Says he's Fine After Suffering Hip Contusion
Trey Murphy III

Will Return Tuesday Night
Omarion Hampton

Likely to Return in Week 14
Yves Missi

Uncertain to Play Tuesday Against the Timberwolves
Zion Williamson

Questionable Against Minnesota
Neemias Queta

Set to Return on Tuesday
Derrick White

Will Play Tuesday Against New York
Quentin Grimes

Downgraded to Questionable on Tuesday
CFB

Five-Star Quarterback Jared Curtis Flips Commitment From Georgia to Vanderbilt
CFB

Florida Hiring Brad White as Defensive Coordinator
Kyle Schwarber

Giants Have Checked in on Kyle Schwarber
Willson Contreras

Willing to Waive his Full No-Trade Clause?
Brandon Aiyuk

49ers "Hopeful" Brandon Aiyuk Will Play in 2025
Brayden Point

Without Timetable for Return
Jake Walman

Still Out Tuesday
Mason Appleton

Misses Tuesday's Contest
Oliver Ekman-Larsson

Good to Go Tuesday
Conor Garland

Out on Tuesday
Petr Mrazek

Considered Day-to-Day
Tyson Foerster

Hurt in Monday's Loss
Trey Murphy III

May Skip Another Game Tuesday
Zion Williamson

Back in Pelicans Lineup Tuesday
Tyrone Tracy Jr.

Carted Off With Hip Injury on Monday Night
Edwin Díaz

Mets Still Interested in Re-Signing Edwin Diaz
Devin Williams

Agrees to Three-Year Deal With Mets
Cole Ragans

Red Sox Targeting Cole Ragans in a Trade?
CFB

Kentucky Hires Oregon Offensive Coordinator Will Stein As Head Coach
Davante Adams

Not Dealing With a Serious Injury
Kyler Murray

Surgery Not on the Table for Kyler Murray
Marvin Harrison Jr.

in Danger of Missing Week 14?
Danila Yurov

Won't Play on Tuesday
David Pastrnak

to Remain Out Tuesday
Adam Gaudette

Iffy for Monday
CFB

Kalani Sitake the Top Target for Penn State Coaching Job
Logan Cooley

a Game-Time Decision Monday
Josh Norris

Available Monday
Neal Pionk

Remains Out Monday
Jimmy Snuggerud

to Miss Six Weeks After Wrist Surgery
Justin Herbert

Having Hand Surgery on Monday
Kyler Murray

Cardinals Won't Open Kyler Murray's Practice Window This Week
Sauce Gardner

Not a Candidate to Go on Injured Reserve
Jayden Daniels

Not Cleared for Contact, Decision on Week 14 Status Delayed
CFB

Josh Heupel Says He's Not a Candidate for Penn State Head Coach Job
Trey Hendrickson

Doubtful to Return in Week 14
Tee Higgins

Still in the Concussion Protocol
Drake London

"has a Chance" to Play in Week 14
J.J. McCarthy

in Line to Start in Week 14?
Aaron Jones Sr.

Not Dealing With Serious Shoulder Injury, Likely Day-to-Day
Sam Darnold

Dealing With Ankle Injury, "Should be Good" for Week 14
CFB

Will Stein, Brian Hartline the Top Candidates for Kentucky Job?
CFB

Nebraska Fires Defensive Coordinator John Butler After One Season
CFB

UCLA Expected to Hire Bob Chesney as Next Head Coach
Sauce Gardner

Officially Week-to-Week with Strained Calf
CFB

Lane Kiffin to Make $13 Million Salary, Ties Kirby Smart
CFB

Buster Faulkner, Joey Halzle Candidates for Florida Offensive Coordinator Job?
CFB

Kentucky Officially Fires Mark Stoops
Justin Herbert

Has Metacarpal Fracture in Left Hand
Amon-Ra St. Brown

Week 14 Availability Up in the Air
Zach Ertz

Leads Washington in Receiving in Overtime Loss
CFB

Lane Kiffin to be Introduced as LSU's Next Head Coach on Monday
CFB

Florida Poised to Land Jon Sumrall as Next Head Coach
CFB

Alex Golesh Taking Over Auburn Head-Coaching Job
CFB

Arkansas Expected to Hire Ryan Silverfield as Next Head Coach
Zack Wheeler

Likely to Return in May
Ryan Helsley

Agrees to Two-Year Deal With Orioles

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