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Contact Rate Risers and Fallers - Week 21

Pierre Camus looks at fantasy baseball risers and fallers in the contact rate category for week 21 to determine who may be worth buying or selling for 2017.

Welcome back, RotoBallers! Batting average is just one of many statistics fantasy owners must consider, but contact rate can also be telling of all-around success at the plate. A sudden increase or decrease in contact rate could signal the beginning of an extended hot or cold streak, leading to important waiver wire choices or start/sit decisions for fantasy baseball managers.

Each week we will look at a few players who are rising and falling in terms of contact and compare their previous week's contact rate with their season-long performance.

Here are some of the top contact rate risers and fallers for Week 21 of the fantasy baseball season.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Contact Rate Risers

Alcides Escobar (SS, KC) 92% contact rate last seven days (+13%)

Let's cut to the chase here: you do not want to own Alcides Escobar. If you are one who filters for performance over the last seven days or reacts to the waiver wire based on a list such as this, where Escobar is at the top of the contact rate risers, you aren't doing your due diligence. Escobar is batting .239 for the season, walks just over two percent of the time, and looks destined to finish with a career-high K rate. That aside, the only real reason to own Escobar in the first place is for speed and that has simply evaporated. He's inexplicably stolen just four bases all year, while being caught an equal number of times. With zero power upside to boot, his days of fantasy relevance seem over.

Cameron Rupp (C, PHI) 91% contact rate last seven days (+24%)

It's amazing what a little competition can do to a player's motivation. Since Jorge Alfaro was brought up, Rupp is 9-for-30 (.300) with a pair of homers and four RBI. This is still going to be a timeshare throughout September, but if you're in a two-catcher league or simply desperate for a backstop, Rupp could provide value. In a perfect world, you have bench space to add both him and Alfaro (and they're both available), so you can play daily matchups. You have that kind of time, right?

Neil Walker (2B, MIL) 89% contact rate last seven days (+6%)

The jump is rather small, but the rate is pretty high. Since moving to Milwaukee, Walker has been inspired (moving away from the Big Apple can do that to a player). He's stroking a smooth .435/.519/.565 and has walked twice as much as he's struck out. Granted, this is just over a seven-game period, so let's not get too carried away. Still, Walker should be invigorated by a much friendlier home ballpark and more energetic lineup. He was a popular preseason sleeper who, like most Mets this season, simply didn't live up to the billing. It's not too late to squeeze some fantasy value out of him over the last few weeks, though.

Manuel Margot (OF, SD) 91% contact rate last seven days (+10%)

This week's contact gainer who didn't gain many actual hits is Padres outfielder Manuel Margot. Like many rookies, he has been prone to hot and cold streaks all year. Despite cutting down on strikeouts, he was only hitting .182 in the past week and .203 in August until tonight's two-hit, three-run effort. The good news is that he's actually hit more homers in the second half over 100 fewer at-bats than the first half, but he's only stolen two bags in the last month. The talent is tantalizing, but we may have to wait another year for the whole package to come together. At least he's managed to keep himself on the big league roster, unlike teammate Hunter Renfroe.

 

Contact Rate Fallers

Brad Miller (1B/2B/SS, TB) 48% contact rate last seven days (-24%)

Target Miller in the later rounds they said. He'll be a great power value at second base they said. "They" was actually me, but revisionist history aside, it's been a miserable season for Miller any way you slice it. 30 home runs were never going to be repeatable, but the fact he's hitting at a .187 clip and has only swatted five homers in 79 games made him a detriment to owners who stuck with him through the bad times and... the bad times.

Cory Spangenberg (2B/3B, SD) 51% contact rate last seven days (-23%)

Spangy has flat out been one of the best hitters in the National League since the break, but he may finally be cooling off. An 0-for-3 Tuesday night gives him three hits in his last 20 at-bats (.150). The way he's been hitting, it's not wise to dismiss him just yet, but proceed with caution.

Ryan Braun (OF, MIL) 65% contact rate last seven days (-14%)

Is Braun done in Milwaukee after this season? He's reportedly been on the block for a while, but injuries and the Brewers' surprising playoff contention this year changed those plans. In fantasy terms, Braun isn't going to win any MVP awards, but that's mostly due to time missed. His ratios are fairly in line with career norms and he's actually on pace to finish with the highest hard-hit percentage since his rookie year. Last week wasn't his best (.167 with no homers, no runs and two RBI), but don't read too much into it. This is one former MVP that shouldn't be written off yet.

Kendrys Morales (1B/DH, TOR) 59% contact rate last seven days (-14%)

His 0.33 BB/K would be the lowest since 2012 and his .242 batting average is the lowest since 2014. Since hitting .295 in May, his average has dropped each successive month, down to .159 in August thus far. Otherwise, Morales has delivered the type of power you'd expect. If you're still hanging onto him, you might be relieved to know that he's hit more HR in September than any other month throughout his career.

 

More Risers and Fallers




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REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Rickard Rakell

Available Saturday
Tre Jones

is Returning on Friday
Coby White

Cleared for Action Versus Hornets
Jake Ferguson

Listed as Questionable for Week 15
Bo Horvat

Ruled Out for Saturday
Tre Johnson

to be Limited in Return on Friday
Andrei Vasilevskiy

Could Return Monday
Geno Smith

Officially Ruled Out for Week 15
Victor Hedman

to Be Out Until February
Kenny Pickett

to Start in Week 15 Against Eagles
Moussa Diabaté

Moussa Diabate Available on Friday
Jared McCann

to Miss Three Weeks With Lower-Body Injury
Tyrese Maxey

Under the Weather on Friday
Josh Jacobs

Officially Questionable to Face the Broncos
Victor Wembanyama

Expected to Return on Saturday
Stuart Skinner

Shipped to Pittsburgh
Tristan Jarry

Oilers Acquire Tristan Jarry From Penguins
Anthony Edwards

Sidelined on Friday Evening
Deebo Samuel Sr.

Questionable for Week 15
CFB

Washington State Expected to Hire Kirby Moore as Next Head Coach
CFB

Kyle Whittingham Stepping Down as Utah Head Coach
T.J. Watt

Officially Ruled Out for Monday Night
Manel Kape

Set For UFC Vegas 112 Main Event
Davante Adams

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An Underdog At UFC Vegas 112
Rome Odunze

Questionable for Sunday
Kevin Vallejos

Set For His Third UFC Fight
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Ruled Out for Sunday
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In Dire Need Of Victory
Cesar Almeida

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Set To Make His UFC Debut
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Not Cleared for Contact
T.J. Watt

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Maikel Garcia

Royals Agree on Five-Year Extension
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Looks To Extend His Win Streak
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Morgan Charriere Looks to Win Second Consecutive Fights
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Looks To Bounce Back
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King Green

Returns At UFC Vegas 112
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Lance Gibson Jr. Set To Open Up UFC Vegas 112 Main Card
Jake Ferguson

on Track to Play in Week 15
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Sherrone Moore Charged with Home Invasion, Among Other Charges
Jayden Daniels

Cleared for Contact
Tee Higgins

Ruled Out Against Ravens
Marvin Harrison Jr.

Ruled Out for Week 15, Expected Back This Year
Josh Jacobs

"Feeling Pretty Good," Will Practice on Friday
Daniel Gafford

Still Unlikely to Play Friday
Brady Cook

to Get Starting Nod for Jets in Week 15
Khris Middleton

Misses Second Straight Game
Collin Sexton

Sidelined Again Versus Bulls
Tee Higgins

Absent From Practice on Friday
Coby White

On Track To Suit Up Versus Charlotte
De'Von Achane

Should Be Available Monday
Tre Jones

Expected To Play Friday Vs. Hornets
Los Angeles Chargers

Chargers to Utilize Hot-Hand Approach in Backfield Moving Forward?
Ayo Dosunmu

to Miss Friday's Game Vs. Hornets
T.J. Watt

Trending Towards Missing Week 15
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Freddie Kitchens Fired from North Carolina Coaching Staff
Joel Kiviranta

Hurt in Thursday's Win
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Departs Early Versus Blue Jackets
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Makes Early Exit Against Jets
Bo Horvat

Suffers Lower-Body Injury in Thursday's Win
Oliver Ekman-Larsson

Sustains Lower-Body Injury
Roope Hintz

Exits Loss With Injury
Logan Cooley

to Miss at Least Eight Weeks
Mike Conley

Unavailable Friday
Dennis Schröder

Dennis Schroder Downgraded to Out Thursday
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Iffy to Face Warriors
Kris Murray

Makes Third Start of the Campaign Thursday
Gary Trent Jr.

Replaces Jericho Sims in Starting Unit Thursday
Jarrett Allen

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AJ Green

Misses Second Consecutive Game
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Cleared for Action Thursday
Ryan Leonard

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Mats Zuccarello

Lands on Injured Reserve
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Takes Leave of Absence
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Back in Canucks Crease Thursday
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Out on Thursday
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Rejoins Blue Jackets Lineup Thursday
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Bryce Underwood Could Leave Michigan Without Buyout
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Chris Brazzell II Declaring for NFL Draft
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Fernando Mendoza Named AP College Football Player of the Year
Raisel Iglesias

to Remain the Braves Closer
Robert Suarez

Agrees on Three-Year Deal With Braves
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Sherrone Moore Remains in Police Custody
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Joe Klanderman Joining Baylor Coaching Staff
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Kentucky Hiring Jay Bateman as Next Defensive Coordinator
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Closes 2025 With Strong Finish Among Putting Woes
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Brian Harman

2025 Season a Step Back Despite Spring Win
Sam Burns

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Sepp Straka

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Robert MacIntyre

Closes Out a Steady 2025 Campaign
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Chip Kelly Interviews for Georgia Tech Offensive Coordinator Job
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Louisville Receiver Chris Bell has a Torn ACL
Min Woo Lee

Breaks Through to Win in Texas This Year
PGA

Alex Noren Wins Twice on European Tour This Year
Wyndham Clark

has Up-and-Down 2025 Golf Season
CFB

Michigan Fires Head Coach Sherrone Moore
Corey Conners

Comes Close to Winning Again in Very Good 2025
Justin Rose

Turns Back the Clock in 2025
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Jim Knowles Expected to be Hired as Tennessee's Defensive Coordinator
Harris English

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Defensive Coordinator Jim Knowles Not Being Retained at Penn State
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Indiana's Stephen Daley Done for Season After Post-Game Injury
Pete Alonso

Orioles Finalizing Five-Year Deal
Kyle Finnegan

Tigers, Kyle Finnegan Agree on Two-Year Deal
Bo Bichette

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Phillies Extend Manager Rob Thomson Through 2027 Season
Michael King

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Ronald Acuña Jr.

Ronald Acuna Jr. Could Move Back to Leadoff Spot
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Florida, Wisconsin Among Suitors for QB Transfer Kenny Minchey
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Bryan Harsin, Justin Wilcox Candidates for Washington State Head Coach Job?
Edwin Díaz

Edwin Diaz Agrees to Deal With the Dodgers
Kyle Schwarber

Returning to Phillies on Five-Year Deal
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Ole Miss Hiring John David Baker as Offensive Coordinator
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Ty Howle the Top Target for Virginia Tech Offensive Coordinator Job
Shohei Ohtani

to be Used More as Traditional Starting Pitcher Next Year
Yordan Alvarez

to Become Full-Time DH in 2026?
Mason Miller

Padres Plan to Keep Mason Miller in the Bullpen
Ranger Suárez

Orioles Interested in Signing Ranger Suarez
Anthony Volpe

Yankees Don't Expect Anthony Volpe to be Ready in April
Gerrit Cole

Targeting a Return in May/June
CFB

Heisman Trophy Finalists Announced on Monday
Rory McIlroy

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Aaron Rai

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Jordan Spieth

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PGA

Chris Gotterup Needs to Find Better Touch and Consistency This Offseason
Hideki Matsuyama

Ends 2025 Season With a Bookend Victory
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Comes Up Just Shy of Hero World Challenge Victory
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Alexandre Pantoja

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