X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Contact Rate Risers and Fallers in Week 18: Buy or Sell?

RotoBallers, as always, we’re constantly trying to come up with new features that will help you dominate your fantasy leagues. Recently, we’ve built a tool that identifies the biggest trends in contact rate over the last seven days. The tool can be found here. Keep in mind, any statistic being viewed in such a small sample size will never be incredibly predictive on a granular level. But if any stat can be looked at over seven days, it's contact rate which stabilizes very quickly. What this tool provides is a quick indicator of players who might be on the rise, coming out of slumps, seeing the ball better, etc. If we know who is seeing and hitting the ball better as of late, even if it’s just a seven-day period, then we at least have a start in figuring out whether you should be buying or selling on that particular player.

This particular article will focus on three contact rate risers and fallers apiece, and make an attempt to determine how you should treat them. Due to the nature of the often-refreshed contact rate tool, you may sometimes see players listed in this article who are no longer in the top % of risers/fallers (but was within the last few hours). This article will be posted on Wednesdays; if you have any questions or comments feel free to send me an email ([email protected]), tweet (@Andrew_Bua), or reach out on Reddit (/u/CitiStrikeouts)

Editor's Note: RotoBaller has the best Premium MLB Subscription for only $1.99 per week. We have all the tools to help win your seasonal and daily leagues: Hitter & Pitcher Streamers, Matchup Ratings for every player, Sleeper Surgers for AVG, HR, Ks, PLUS Daily DFS Cheat Sheets, Lineup Picks, Expert Lineups, Stacks and Avoids. 

 

Contact Rate Risers

Byron Buxton (OF, MIN): 69% Season Contact Rate, 88% L7 Contact Rate (+19)

Seeing Byron Buxton on this list is music to the ears of the fantasy community, who have been waiting for a breakout since his first call to the Majors in 2015. Does Buxton’s recent increase in contact rate indicate the former top prospect is finally ready to be a star?

Unfortunately, making more contact isn’t the complete solve to Buxton’s issues. Even if he is seeing the ball better lately, the results aren’t there to the levels we’d like them to be. His slash line during the contact rate surge is a meek .167/.286/.222, which is actually worse than his pre-increase levels. It’s also important to keep in mind that Buxton’s struggles have come even with an above-average .319 BABIP; thus the issues aren’t for lack of luck. A player of Buxton’s talent is always worth watching, but in this particular case, more contact isn’t a reason to buy in.

J.T. Realmuto (C, MIA): 84% Season Contact Rate, 97% L7 Contact Rate (+13%)

For the better part of the last two seasons, J.T. Realmuto has produced at a higher rate than your average catcher (especially on the basepaths). Recently, he’s been even better in making more contact at the plate – does this mean an extended hot streak is in play?

Interestingly enough, he’s not hitting the ball as hard lately, but still seeing results. This is in part due to a .409 BABIP that is .42 points higher than his figure for the season, but what’s clear is that with a 7.5% line drive increase, Realmuto’s additional production isn’t from a ton more ground balls that are lucky enough to find holes. Even if he isn't about to go on a tear, you know with Realmuto you have a catcher that's better than the norm - the extra production from more contact is simply a bonus. If like most people the catcher position has been a sore spot for you all season long, buying in on Realmuto at least means you’re bound to get above-average statistics from that spot the rest of the year.

Justin Upton (OF, DET): 72% Season Contact Rate, 85% L7 Contact Rate (+13%)

If seeing Byron Buxton on this list was a big deal, then fantasy owners really have to be doing backflips to see Justin Upon here too. Is Detroit’s prized offseason acquisition finally coming around?

One big difference for Upton lately is the type of contact he’s making. In 2016, Upton has been all or nothing: he’s setting career-highs in soft and hard contact, while simultaneously seeing his medium contact rate diminish to a career-low. During this surge, his hard contact rate is up to an unsustainable 64.7%, but his 17.7% soft contact rate would also match his career mark. If the inevitable decrease in hard contact translates into more medium contact rather than soft contact, we could see a big turnaround. Further, his .333 BABIP is only .05 points higher than his career figure, so luck doesn’t have much to do with it. Given his likely low asking price, now would be the time to buy in on Upton.

 

Contact Rate Fallers

Yasmani Grandal (C, LAD): 76% Season Contact Rate, 59% L7 Contact Rate (-17%)

Much like J.T. Realmuto above, Yasmani Grandal has always been a reasonably productive catcher when he’s on the field. 2016 will likely go down as his best season to date, but is a slide on the way with his recent slip in contact rate?

Probably not, at least not to the point you should look to sell. Grandal has always been a high strikeout player; 2016 has been no different with a 24.6 K%. While he’s always been a high walk player too, contact rate has never been his forte. In three full seasons at the Major League level, Grandal has never eclipsed a 79% contact rate, and has never swung and missed less than 8.2%. So long as he keeps hitting for pop, that’s all fantasy owners really care about at a position that doesn’t produce much anyway. Even with a slump, he’s likely better than most options that are reasonably attainable.

Miguel Sano (3B/OF/DH, MIN): 66% Season Contact Rate, 51% L7 Contact Rate (-15%)

While Miguel Sano hasn’t put up the same averages as he did in his rookie season, he’s still been a solid producer from a counting stats perspective. A slumping contact rate, however, doesn’t work in his favor moving forward this year.

Given Sano’s abysmal contact rate normally, his success already depends on a smaller sample size of hits than most players. Even in the minor leagues, his best strikeout rate was only 25.1%. At the Major League level, that rate has jumped to 35.2%. He is simply a player who will always swing and miss a ton. If he’s going to whiff more, thereby decreasing his already incredibly low contact rate, simple logic dictates there will be an even lower cap on his production. He’s certainly a hold in keeper and dynasty leagues, but in redraft leagues you should keep him on your bench while he fights to make contact more.

Michael Saunders (OF, TOR): 75% Season Contact Rate, 63% L7 Contact Rate (-12%)

Michael Saunders has been a pleasant surprise this season; he looks likely to set career-highs across the board. Should owners be worried that his recent contact decrease indicates he’s regressing to the Saunders of old?

While Saunders has been producing despite a near career-low contact rate, there was always at least some regression expected. For awhile,, he was sporting a BABIP of over .400. Even as that number has fallen, however, the production has continued. Part of the reason could very well be the fact he plays in a lineup with two of the best hitters in the game (three if Jose Bautista gets going), and so he’ll always be in a position to score runs and drive men home. While a contact rate slip isn’t ideal, it likely won’t result in a prolonged slump given the lineup protection. Saunders was always a player that was a nice sell high candidate, but a contact rate dip by no means indicates any more of a reason to sell than before.

 

Live Expert Q&A Chats - Every Weekday @ 1 PM and 6 PM EST (DFS)

Fantasy Baseball Chat Room

[iflychat_embed id="c-55" hide_user_list="yes" hide_popup_chat="no" height="400px"]




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Jackson Jobe27 mins ago

Inefficient In First Career Start Monday
Tyler Glasnow33 mins ago

Fans Eight, Earns Win In Monday Debut
MLB40 mins ago

Kash Mayfield Assigned To Single-A
José Ramírez43 mins ago

Jose Ramirez Collects Three Hits, Homers In Monday Return To Lineup
Kyle Hart51 mins ago

Earns Win In Return To MLB
Ryan Johnson1 hour ago

Earns First Career Save Monday
Travis Kuhn1 hour ago

And Phillies In Agreement On Minor League Deal
Mike Trout1 hour ago

Turns In Another Hitless Performance Monday
Jordan Hicks1 hour ago

Earns Quality Start, Win In Season Debut Monday
Kyle Schwarber2 hours ago

Homers, Collects Two RBI On Monday
Jake Eder2 hours ago

Acquired By The Angels
Alexander Canario2 hours ago

Acquired By The Pirates
Sam Stevens3 hours ago

Enjoyed Nice Result In Houston
Cristopher Sánchez3 hours ago

Cristopher Sanchez Strikes Out Seven In Strong Outing On Monday
PGA4 hours ago

J.T. Poston Seeks To Contend At Valero Texas Open
Ochai Agbaji4 hours ago

Resting On Tuesday
Kris Bubic4 hours ago

Notches Eight Strikeouts In Strong Win On Monday
RJ Barrett4 hours ago

To Be Rested Tuesday Night
Martín Pérez4 hours ago

Martin Perez Dazzles Twins On Monday, Throws Six Hitless Innings
Immanuel Quickley4 hours ago

Returning To Action Against Bulls
Bryan De La Cruz4 hours ago

Draws First Start Of Season On Monday Night
Jakob Poeltl4 hours ago

Available On Tuesday
Reynaldo López4 hours ago

Reynaldo Lopez Lands On 15-day IL With Shoulder Inflammation
Jonathan Kuminga4 hours ago

Uncertain For Tuesday's Game
Max Scherzer4 hours ago

Visiting With Hand Specialist On Monday
Christian Braun4 hours ago

Listed As Probable For Meeting With Timberwolves
José Ramírez4 hours ago

Jose Ramirez Back In Lineup For Cleveland On Monday
Aaron Gordon4 hours ago

Tagged As Questionable For Tuesday
Freddie Freeman4 hours ago

Absent From Lineup For Monday Night
Jamal Murray4 hours ago

Iffy For Tuesday
LeBron James5 hours ago

Ready To Play Against Rockets
Nikola Jokić5 hours ago

Nikola Jokic Expected To Play Against Timberwolves
Trae Young5 hours ago

Likely To Face Portland
Bradley Beal5 hours ago

Could Return On Tuesday
Giannis Antetokounmpo5 hours ago

Probable For Tuesday's Action
CJ McCollum5 hours ago

Shut Down For The Rest Of The Season
Denny McCarthy5 hours ago

Keeps Making Cuts But Needs To Make More Putts
Zion Williamson5 hours ago

Won't Play Again This Season
Brian Harman6 hours ago

Off To A Subpar 2025 So Far
Jaylin Williams6 hours ago

Back In Thunder Lineup Monday
Isaiah Hartenstein6 hours ago

Will Play On Monday
Chet Holmgren6 hours ago

Available Against Bulls
Dereck Lively II6 hours ago

Downgraded To Out Monday
Caleb Martin6 hours ago

Active On Monday
Daniel Gafford6 hours ago

Back In Action With Minutes Restriction
Ryan Weathers6 hours ago

Ramping Up His Throwing Progression
Ilya Samsonov7 hours ago

Nursing An Upper-Body Injury
Tomas Hertl8 hours ago

To Sit Out At Least One More Week
Garnet Hathaway8 hours ago

Rejoins Flyers Lineup
Erik Johnson8 hours ago

Available Monday
Rasmus Ristolainen8 hours ago

Not Expected To Return This Season
Ryan Preece8 hours ago

Has Three Straight Top-10 Finishes For First Time In His Career
Colton Sissons8 hours ago

Likely Out For Rest Of The Season
NASCAR8 hours ago

Bubba Wallace After Third-Place Finish At Martinsville: "What a Great Day"
Jonathan Marchessault8 hours ago

Day-To-Day With Lower-Body Injury
Todd Gilliland8 hours ago

Has Mistake-Free Day At Martinsville, Grabs Another Top-10 Finish
Brandon Moreno9 hours ago

Wins Back-To-Back Fights
Steve Erceg9 hours ago

Losses Third Consecutive Fight
Drew Dober9 hours ago

Gets Knocked Out At UFC Mexico City
Manuel Torres9 hours ago

Gets Back In The Win Column
Harry Hall9 hours ago

Bounces Back In Houston Last Week
Denver Broncos9 hours ago

Denver To Take A Running Back In The Draft
CJ Vergara9 hours ago

Gets Submitted
Ryan Fox9 hours ago

Showing Improvement Heading Into The Valero Texas Open
Édgar Cháirez9 hours ago

Edgar Chairez Gets Submission Win At UFC Mexico City
Courtland Sutton9 hours ago

"No Timeline" On Courtland Sutton Extension
Vince Morales9 hours ago

Drops Decision At UFC Mexico City
Raul Rosas Jr.10 hours ago

Gets Decision Win At UFC Mexico City
New York Jets10 hours ago

Jets To Wait On Contract Extensions For Garrett Wilson, Sauce Gardner
Saimon Oliveira10 hours ago

Still Winless In The UFC
David Martinez10 hours ago

Wins His UFC Debut
Jameson Williams10 hours ago

Detroit To Exercise Jameson Williams' Fifth-Year Option
Kevin Borjas10 hours ago

Earns His First UFC Win
Brandon Aiyuk10 hours ago

49ers Expected To Hold Brandon Aiyuk
Ronaldo Rodríguez10 hours ago

Ronaldo Rodriguez Suffers His First UFC Loss
Joel Dahmen11 hours ago

Scores Top-20 Finish At Texas Children's Houston Open
Jacob Bridgeman11 hours ago

Had Some Rest Heading Into The Valero
Sami Valimaki11 hours ago

Finishes Fourth At Texas Children's Houston Open
Maverick McNealy11 hours ago

Finishes Tied For 32nd At Texas Children’s Houston Open
Tom Kim11 hours ago

Finishes Tied For 36th At Valspar Championship
Rickie Fowler11 hours ago

Finishes Tied For 52nd At Texas Children’s Houston Open
Bud Cauley11 hours ago

Finishes Tied For Fourth At Valspar Championship
Sam Burns11 hours ago

Misses The Cut At Valspar Championship
Daniel Berger11 hours ago

Finishes Tied For 20th At The PLAYERS Championship
Ludvig Aberg11 hours ago

Misses The Cut At The PLAYERS Championship
Treylon Burks13 hours ago

Unlikely To Be Ready For Training Camp
Keenan Allen13 hours ago

Chargers Not Ruling Out Reuniting With Keenan Allen
Breece Hall13 hours ago

Could Be Part Of Committee In 2025
James Cook13 hours ago

Bills Not Close To Extension With James Cook
Tyreek Hill13 hours ago

Dolphins Planning On Tyreek Hill Being Part Of Their Future
Baltimore Ravens13 hours ago

Ravens Expected To Draft A Kicker
Mark Andrews13 hours ago

Ravens Expect Mark Andrews Back In 2025
Lamar Jackson13 hours ago

Ravens Have Had Early Extension Talks With Lamar Jackson
Christopher Bell14 hours ago

Powers His Way To A Second-Place Finish At Martinsville
Chase Elliott14 hours ago

Strong Martinsville Performance Ends With A Top-Five Finish
Kyle Larson15 hours ago

Collects A Top-Five Finish At Martinsville
William Byron15 hours ago

Places 22nd After Struggles At Martinsville
Joey Logano15 hours ago

Claims His First 2025 Top-10 Finish After Up-And-Down Performance
Tyler Reddick15 hours ago

Fails To Place In The Top 10 At Martinsville
Joseph Woll19 hours ago

Stands Tall On Sunday
UTA19 hours ago

Alex Kerfoot Leads The Way In Sunday's Victory
Tristan Jarry19 hours ago

Shuts The Door On Ottawa On Sunday
Sebastian Aho19 hours ago

Busy In Sunday's Victory
Anze Kopitar19 hours ago

Tallies Three Helpers On Sunday
Troy Terry19 hours ago

Exits Early On Sunday
Denny Hamlin21 hours ago

Silences Doubters After Crew-Chief Change
Ty Gibbs21 hours ago

Earns Best 2025 Finish At Martinsville Despite Failing Cool Suit
Ross Chastain21 hours ago

Has A Great Day At Martinsville
Chase Briscoe21 hours ago

Has Solid Run At Martinsville
Erik Jones21 hours ago

Disqualified At Martinsville For Weight Violation
Zach Wilson1 day ago

Still Views Himself As A Starter
New York Giants1 day ago

Victor Dimukeje Signs With Giants
Dallas Cowboys1 day ago

Brian Schottenheimer Optimistic About Deal With Micah Parsons
Lane Hutson1 day ago

Continues Special Campaign With Hat Trick Of Assists
Nick Suzuki1 day ago

Notches Three Points In Sunday's Win
Robby Fabbri1 day ago

Not Expected To Return This Season
Jacob Trouba1 day ago

Could Be An Option Sunday
Jordan Staal1 day ago

Will Not Play On Sunday
Evgeni Malkin1 day ago

Out Against Senators
Justin Fields1 day ago

Aaron Glenn Thinks Justin Fields Is Ready To Break Out
Dak Prescott1 day ago

"Doing Great" In Rehab From Hamstring Surgery
Jacksonville Jaguars1 day ago

Fred Johnson Signs With Jacksonville
Tennessee Titans1 day ago

Titans Still Entertaining Calls For No. 1 Overall Pick
Karel Vejmelka1 day ago

Makes 17th Consecutive Start Sunday
Arvid Soderblom1 day ago

Tries To End Four-Game Skid Sunday
Brandon Aiyuk2 days ago

Deadline Coming For Brandon Aiyuk
Josh Berry2 days ago

Has Top-10 Upside At Martinsville
Joey Logano2 days ago

Don't Overlook Joey Logano This Weekend
Ryan Preece2 days ago

Could Get First Three-Race Top-10 Streak Of His Career
Chase Elliott2 days ago

Looking To Continue Great Runs At Martinsville
Christopher Bell2 days ago

Wins Pole At Martinsville, But Can He Stay Up There?
Ryan Blaney2 days ago

Fast In Practice But Skeptical About Car
Denny Hamlin2 days ago

New Crew Chief Has Terrible Martinsville Record
Steve Erceg4 days ago

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Brandon Moreno4 days ago

A Favorite At UFC Mexico City
Manuel Torres4 days ago

Set For Co-Main Event
Drew Dober4 days ago

An Underdog At UFC Mexico City
Joe Pyfer4 days ago

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Kelvin Gastelum4 days ago

Set For Middleweight Matchup
Vince Morales4 days ago

In Dire Need Of Victory
Raul Rosas Jr.4 days ago

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Saimon Oliveira4 days ago

Looks For His First UFC Win
Jhonattan Vegas5 days ago

Not A Good Play At Houston Open
Gary Woodland5 days ago

A Dark-Horse Candidate At Houston Open
Nick Taylor5 days ago

Keep An Eye On Nick Taylor At Houston Open
Mackenzie Hughes5 days ago

Avoid Mackenzie Hughes At Houston Open
Nicolai Hojgaard5 days ago

Looking To Rebound At Houston Open
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF

MORE RECENT ARTICLES

 
J.J. McCarthy - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Draft Sleepers

Five Fantasy Football Superflex Quarterback Breakouts, Draft Targets (2025)

If you’ve ever played in a Superflex fantasy football league, then you know how important quarterbacks are in this format. The ability to start multiple stud quarterbacks can carry you to a Superflex title. Unfortunately, finding two such players isn’t so easy. All the top signal-callers come off draft boards first, and that makes it […]


Omarion Hampton - College Football Rankings, NCAA CFB DFS Lineup Picks - NFL Draft

Ideal Landing Spots For The Top 12 Fantasy Football Rookies - 2025 NFL Draft

Then, the NFL Draft continues to inch closer and closer. This is a very interesting class, with a handful of players who could be stars in the NFL and reshape fantasy football leagues going forward. Here are the ideal landing spots for the top 12 fantasy football rookies. These picks exist in conversation with each […]


Jalen Coker - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

Eight Best Ball Late Round Value Fantasy Football Players To Target For 2025

Fantasy football is the most popular game in all of sports. It has gone from a paper-and-pen game to a multi-million dollar-a-year one. While redraft leagues are the most popular form of fantasy football, best ball leagues are quickly gaining steam. The best part of best ball leagues is the ability to draft thousands of […]


Abdul Carter - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

2025 NFL Draft Rankings: Top 10 Fantasy Football Edge Rusher Prospects

Edge rusher is the most important, most coveted, and most highly-paid position on defense in the NFL. It stands to reason that the most important position in the entire game being quarterback, and by a wide margin, means the most important position on defense are the players that are tasked with disrupting opposing QBs as […]


Brock Purdy - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Picks

Brock Purdy Dynasty Fantasy Football Outlook and Trade Value

Despite becoming the all-time leading passer for the Iowa State Cyclones, Brock Purdy wasn't a highly touted prospect due to his perceived lack of athleticism. The 49ers picked him with the final pick of the 2022 NFL Draft, but Mr. Irrelevant quickly proved everyone wrong. In his first two years, he started in back-to-back NFC […]


Michael Florio's Football Show - Podcast RotoBaller Network

Florio's Football Show: Scouting NFL Draft Prospects!

Michael F Florio goes over some of the top prospects from this years NFL Draft. Florio talks about what he looks for when watching prospect tape and explains what traits translate best to the NFL level. Be sure to also tune into RotoBaller Radio on SiriusXM (SiriusXM channel 87) on Sundays from 6-7 am. You can […]


Najee Harris - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

Dynasty Fantasy Football Buy or Sell: Najee Harris, Rico Dowdle, Jordan Mason

One year ago, we discussed the futures of Josh Jacobs, Derrick Henry, Saquon Barkley, and Aaron Jones as those free agents found new homes. This year's headliners are Najee Harris, Rico Dowdle, and Jordan Mason. Not quite the same. Still, with every transaction come implications for dynasty fantasy football rosters across the globe. Below, we […]


Romeo Doubs - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Early 2025 Fantasy Football Sleepers: Undervalued NFC Draft Targets

While the 2025 fantasy football redraft season is still several months away, there is no such thing as being too prepared for your fantasy draft. Fantasy football is year-round, even for those who only play in redraft leagues. The landscape of fantasy football will change between today and the start of redraft season, with the […]


Detroit Lions Defense, Aidan Hutchinson - Fantasy Football DST Rankings, Streamers, IDP Sleepers

2025 Fantasy Football IDP Sleepers: Five Draft Targets

It's notably difficult to identify sleepers in fantasy football IDP leagues. The skill of the players in question is very important, but situation also plays a large factor, as does a recent history of injuries. Rather than bucketing them into groups, it's better to analyze each one individually, look at where they are in terms […]


Ashton Jeanty - College Football Rankings, NCAA CFB DFS Lineup Picks

Ashton Jeanty's Top Potential Landing Spots For 2025: Fantasy Football NFL Draft Outlook

Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty will enter the 2025 NFL Draft as one of the best prospects in the class. Jeanty just ran for 2,601 yards and 29 touchdowns across 14 games this past college season. Those 2,601 rush yards were the second-most of all-time in FBS history, only behind Barry Sanders's 2,628 rush yards […]


Bhaysul Tuten - NFL Draft Prospects, Rookie Rankings

2025 Fantasy Football Rookie Mock Draft: 12-Team, Single QB

The 2025 NFL Combine has now been completed, so it's worth doing another mock draft to see where everyone stands after the league's pre-draft testing event. Overall, there were a few surprises, but the order of many players will remain the same. The mental domain of the original rankings, which have been fairly set in […]


Rashid Shaheed - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

2025 Fantasy Football Sleepers: Later-Career Breakout Candidates

Typically, most NFL players break out in the early parts of their careers. Between the ages of 20 and 25 is when you expect to see the majority of players have their first big season. Some waste no time and put together excellent years while they're rookies, while some need more time to develop. These […]


Davante Adams - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

NFL Free Agency Tracker - Updates On Every Free Agent Signing (2025)

HuThe NFL offseason is starting to heat up, and the league's legal tampering period is set to begin on March 10 at noon Eastern. Free agents cannot officially sign until the new league year begins on March 12 at 4 p.m. Eastern, but deals will be agreed to, and news will be coming in quickly […]